Market Analysis
XAGUSD week ahead: silver holds gains, what to watch 2026-08-10
Silver closed last week at 63.516 after a sharp run higher, and this week is about whether that momentum holds against a stretched long position.
2 min readXAUUSD closed Wednesday at 4028.62, down about 55 dollars from Monday's open at 4084.27. The week has been a wide one. Price stretched to a high of 4100.93 on Tuesday and dropped to a low of 3983.41 the same session, a range of more than 117 dollars in two days.
The move has tracked headlines out of the Gulf. On Tuesday, ForexLive reported that Gulf states are racing to build pipelines routing oil around the Strait of Hormuz, with Goldman Sachs finding the plans could insulate most Gulf oil exports. That narrative eases one supply-shock premium that had been supporting safe-haven bids, and gold gave back ground into Wednesday after Tuesday's push to 4100.93 failed to hold.
The calendar is thin for the back half of this week, so headline flow carries the tape. Watch for follow-through on the Hormuz pipeline story. If the insulation thesis firms up and risk sentiment steadies, the safe-haven bid stays under pressure and gold can keep drifting toward the week's floor. If fresh escalation headlines hit, the premium comes back quickly and Tuesday's high moves back into focus. Silver often exaggerates gold's swings, so watch Silver for an early read on which way the metals complex leans.
As of Wednesday, retail positioning sits at 56 percent long against 44 percent short. That is a mild long lean, not a crowded one. Consensus midweek still favours the upside, but the skew is shallow enough that a decisive break either way would not face heavy trapped positioning.
The 4022.11 low from Wednesday is the line to watch. Hold above it and the 4052.87 open area stays in play as the pivot bulls want to reclaim. Lose 4022.11 on a close and Tuesday's 3983.41 low becomes the next reference. You can track these levels live on your LHFX platform and open an account to follow the metals complex tick by tick.
Byline: LHFX Research
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