AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair experienced notable weakness, falling to a low of 0.6615. This decline was primarily driven by fresh concerns over US auto tariffs, a more cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve, and the anticipation of Chinese economic stimulus.
However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to find some support, aided by Australia's strong trade relationships and commodity exports. Now, the AUD/USD pair has rebounded, reaching an intra-day high of 0.6319, successfully recovering its earlier losses.
US Auto Tariffs Escalate Trade Tensions, Weigh on Market Sentiment
The AUD/USD pair came under pressure after President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on auto imports, set to take effect on April 2.
This move has raised concerns about escalating global trade tensions, with investors worried about the potential economic impact of the tariffs.
Additionally, Trump suggested the possibility of imposing tariffs on copper imports. While this could benefit Australia’s copper-exporting economy, it also added to the overall uncertainty in global markets.
Despite the tariff concerns, the market received some relief when Trump offered a one-month reprieve for auto parts imports. However, these ongoing tariff disputes continued to overshadow the AUD’s ability to gain strength.
Fed Policy Uncertainty and Impact on the USD
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from its recent highs, trading around 104.50 as market participants digested the latest economic data.
US Treasury yields, which had been providing support to the USD, showed signs of easing, with the 2-year and 10-year yields hovering at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. These declines were compounded by the growing uncertainty surrounding US Federal Reserve policy.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari both spoke about the challenges the Fed faces in managing inflation.
Kashkari highlighted that there is still more to be done. The uncertainty about the Fed's future decisions, combined with market concerns about an economic slowdown due to trade tensions, put pressure on the US Dollar. As a result, the Australian Dollar (AUD) gained some strength.
Chinese Stimulus and Australian Inflation Data Support AUD Amid Cautious Outlook
On the other hand, expectations of Chinese stimulus helped support the Australian Dollar (AUD), thanks to the strong trade ties between Australia and China.
The Chinese government's plans to boost consumption by raising wages and easing financial burdens are seen as positive for Australia's export-driven economy.
This stimulus could improve consumer confidence in China, which is a key trading partner for Australia, and help increase demand for Australian commodities.
At the same time, Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a slight dip to 2.4%, which was below expectations but still reflected a stable inflation environment.
This muted inflation figure, coupled with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain interest rates steady, added to the cautious outlook for the Australian Dollar.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is inching higher against the U.S. dollar, currently trading at $0.63157, as the pair holds above its key pivot point at $0.62948.
This level also aligns closely with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62945, reinforcing short-term technical support and signaling a modestly bullish tone.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63304. A sustained break above this threshold could set the stage for a rally toward $0.63587, followed by a key ceiling at $0.63907—levels that have capped upside moves in previous sessions.
However, buyers will need continued momentum to push through these levels, especially with broader risk sentiment in flux.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $0.62580. A drop below this could open a path to $0.62306 and $0.62060, where buying interest may re-emerge.
These levels should be watched closely in the event of a sentiment shift or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data later this week.
Technically, the structure favors a long bias above $0.62947, with a short-term target of $0.63426 and a stop loss set at $0.62692 to manage risk.
The pair continues to consolidate within a modest upward channel, supported by the 50 EMA, suggesting underlying demand remains intact.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair extended its losing streak, trading around 1.2908 and hitting an intra-day low of 1.2887.
The British Pound faced significant selling pressure following the release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February, which indicated a faster-than-expected decline in inflation.
On the data front, the headline CPI increased 2.8% year-over-year (YoY), falling short of market expectations of 2.9% and down from January’s 3.0% increase.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, rose by 3.5%, missing forecasts of 3.6% and declining from the previous release of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI grew 0.4% after a -0.1% reading in January, falling short of the 0.5% estimate.
Therefore, the Bank of England (BoE) closely monitors UK service inflation, which remained steady at 5%. While the softer inflation figures reinforced market expectations for a BoE rate cut, sticky services inflation may prevent traders from fully pricing in a rate cut as soon as May.
UK Fiscal Policy and Political Developments Add to Pound Weakness
Moreover, market participants are preparing for more volatility in the British Pound as UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the Spring Statement at 12:30 GMT.
She is expected to announce cuts in welfare spending and stick to her stance of not raising taxes. Instead, she plans to rely on foreign financing for funding investments.
In addition, Reeves is likely to reveal a £2.2 billion increase in defense spending, partly due to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty caused by the Ukraine war, as reported by BBC News.
Therefore, the prospect of reduced fiscal spending could weigh on the Pound, as lower government expenditure may slow economic growth and keep inflation pressures subdued, reinforcing expectations of BoE monetary easing.
US Dollar Steadies Ahead of Key Inflation Data
Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair faced additional downward pressure as the US Dollar stabilized despite uncertainty over potential tariffs by former President Donald Trump, set to be announced on April 2. The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged higher to 104.40, reflecting cautious sentiment in global markets.
Trump has reiterated his threats to impose tariffs but suggested that several countries may receive exemptions.
While traders speculate on the potential impact on US economic growth, the move could lead to renewed inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Looking ahead, investors focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February, scheduled for release on Friday.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE index, is expected to rise 2.7% year-over-year, slightly above the previous reading of 2.6%.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% in May, but markets are pricing in a 65% probability of a rate cut in June.
Therefore, the combination of softer UK inflation, cautious fiscal policy expectations, and steady US dollar performance is likely to keep GBP/USD under pressure in the near term as traders assess the BoE and Fed’s monetary policy paths.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.29359, registering a modest gain of +0.04%, as the pound holds steady above its pivot point at $1.29271. Price action remains constructive on the 4-hour chart, supported by an upward bias as long as it stays above the pivot.
The pair is testing the 50-period EMA at $1.29408, which now serves as an immediate technical barrier. A confirmed break above this level would reinforce short-term bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.29740, with the next upside targets at $1.30138 and $1.30457. A move beyond these levels could open the door for further gains, particularly if upcoming U.S. data pressures the dollar.
On the downside, initial support lies at $1.28879, followed by $1.28616 and $1.28212, where buyers may reemerge if the pair retraces.
From a technical standpoint, the pair is positioned for further upside as long as it holds above $1.29277, which coincides with the pivot and is near the current trading range.
The recommended strategy favors a buy-on-break above this level, with a take-profit target set at $1.29880, while a stop-loss is advised at $1.28996 to mitigate risk.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading hours on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair climbed towards 1.0780, benefiting from a weaker US dollar.
The Greenback came under pressure following disappointing US economic data and rising uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Although, the upside remains limited due to the ECB’s dovish tone. Traders will closely monitor upcoming US economic data and any developments regarding Trump’s trade tariffs, which could influence the next moves in the currency market.
US Economic Data Signals Weakness, Weighing on the Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remained on the back foot after Tuesday’s release of weak consumer confidence data.
The Conference Board reported that US consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in more than four years in March, reflecting heightened concerns over economic slowdown and policy uncertainty.
This has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve might consider further policy adjustments to support economic stability.
On the flip side, Investors remain cautious as uncertainty looms over Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans set for next week.
On Monday, Trump hinted that not all tariffs would be imposed on the April 2 deadline and that some countries might receive exemptions, but he provided no further details.
The lack of clarity has heightened market anxiety, adding to pressure on the US dollar and contributed to the EUR/USD pair losses.
ECB Dovish Signals Could Cap Euro Gains
Despite the US dollar’s weakness, the dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) could limit the euro’s upside trend.
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau suggested on Tuesday that there is still room for further rate cuts, indicating that the deposit rate could decline from 2.5% to 2% by the end of summer.
ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta stressed the need for a data-driven approach, noting that as inflation falls and interest rates reach neutral levels, policy decisions become more uncertain. This suggests the ECB may take a cautious stance, potentially slowing the euro’s rise against the US dollar.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.07875, posting a slight gain of +0.02% in early European hours. Despite the modest uptick, the currency remains below its pivot point at $1.08058, signaling that bearish sentiment still lingers as price action struggles to gain upside traction.
The 4-hour chart shows price comfortably beneath the 50-period EMA at $1.08608, further reinforcing near-term downside pressure.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08544, aligning closely with the 50 EMA, followed by additional barriers at $1.08841 and $1.09177. Bulls would need a decisive break above these levels to reassert control, but current momentum indicators suggest a lack of conviction from buyers.
On the downside, $1.07656 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.07214 and $1.06780, levels that could come into play if selling accelerates below the pivot.
Given the current technical structure, a short bias remains favored below $1.08056, with a tactical sell setup targeting $1.07433, and a stop loss positioned at $1.08368 to manage risk. RSI and MACD indicators lean neutral to slightly bearish, with no clear signs of reversal yet.
In summary, while price hovers just below key resistance, the path of least resistance appears to favor sellers unless buyers reclaim ground above the $1.085 level with conviction.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 26, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices are finding it tough to hold recent gains, with XAU/USD hovering just above the crucial $3,000 mark on Wednesday.
Investors remain on edge as mixed economic signals and shifting Federal Reserve expectations create uncertainty in the market.
While expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to provide support, a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar and upbeat sentiment in equity markets are limiting gold’s upward trend.
Traders are now watching key U.S. economic data releases, including Durable Goods Orders and speeches from Fed officials, which could sway sentiment around both the dollar and gold.
Mixed Economic Signals Keep Investors on Edge
The U.S. dollar has gained traction after hitting a three-week low, fueled by investor caution ahead of upcoming economic reports.
However, Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index painted a gloomy picture, dropping to 92.9—the lowest in four years.
In the meantime, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumer outlook, fell to a 12-year low of 65.2, often seen as a sign of a potential recession.
Despite this, the Fed remains cautious. Governor Adriana Kugler pushed back against aggressive rate cuts, arguing that inflation risks still linger.
However, markets are pricing in rate cuts as early as June, with additional easing expected in July and October. With the Fed lowering its growth outlook, gold traders are closely watching whether incoming data will reinforce the case for a looser monetary policy.
Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Uncertainty Weigh on Sentiment
On the other hand, the former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff plans for April 2 are making investors nervous. His administration is reportedly considering reciprocal tariffs on 15 major trading partners, which could reignite global trade tensions.
Meanwhile, Trump’s secondary sanctions on Venezuela are adding further complications to the geopolitical landscape.
On a positive note, U.S.-mediated negotiations have led to a temporary halt in military strikes between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea and energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, China’s latest stimulus measures are boosting domestic consumption, fueling optimism in global markets. However, this renewed risk appetite is dampening gold’s safe-haven appeal in the short term.
What’s Next? Key Data to Watch
Moving ahead, traders now have their eyes on Wednesday’s U.S. Durable Goods Orders report, followed by the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
If inflation shows further signs of softening, it could reinforce expectations for aggressive rate cuts, providing a tailwind for gold prices.
However, any surprises to the upside in inflation data could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold lower.
For now, gold is struggling to stay above $3,000 as traders deal with mixed economic signals, changing Fed policies, and global uncertainties.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3,024.43, showing marginal gains of +0.02%, as the market holds steady above its key pivot point at $3,014.07.
The broader structure remains constructive, with price action supported by the 50-period EMA at $3,019.71, which continues to act as a dynamic support level on the 4-hour chart.
Immediate resistance lies at $3,033.81, and a clean break above this level would open the path toward $3,053.86, followed by the higher resistance at $3,071.37.
These levels align with previous swing highs, making them critical zones to monitor for potential bullish continuation.
On the downside, $3,000.06 serves as the immediate support level, followed by deeper cushions at $2,982.18 and $2,966.96, where the price could stabilize if momentum shifts lower.
Technically, the price remains above the 50 EMA, reinforcing short-term strength. Momentum indicators are neutral, suggesting consolidation before a potential breakout.
The trendline structure remains intact, and as long as gold maintains price action above $3,015, buying interest is expected to dominate.
The near-term strategy favors a buy-above-$3,015 approach, with an initial target at $3,035 and a protective stop just below the support line at $3,005.
A move below this would invalidate the bullish setup and increase the probability of a pullback toward the $2,980 zone.
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GOLD Price Analysis – March 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is steady near $3,025 on Tuesday as traders react to US President Donald Trump's new tariff policies.
He has imposed a 25% “secondary tariff” on all imports from countries buying oil from Venezuela, affecting major economies like China and India. This move has added economic uncertainty, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Gold Prices Strengthen as Trade Tensions and ETF Inflows Increase Demand
On Monday, Trump said the US would ease reciprocal tariffs for countries that meet its reshoring demands.
At the same time, he announced new tariffs on cars, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals, with possible levies on lumber and semiconductor chips.
These trade policies have raised concerns about global economic stability, increasing uncertainty in financial markets.
On the other hand, a recent trend shows more investors are putting money into bullion-backed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) as economic uncertainties grow.
This shift towards gold could provide more support for its price as we approach the second quarter of 2025. According to Bloomberg, the increased interest in gold ETFs reflects growing confidence in gold’s long-term strength amid ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges.
Therefore, the uncertainty from new trade policies and the growing interest in gold-backed ETFs could increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, potentially boosting its price heading into 2025.
Gold Remains Strong Amid Trade Tensions and Tariff Uncertainties
Meanwhile, the new proposal from the Trump administration to impose tariffs on Chinese-made ships entering US ports has caused concern in the agriculture sector. US farmers worry that rising costs could hurt exports of wheat, corn, and soybeans, adding more economic pressure.
Looking ahead, gold remains strong above the $3,000 mark, as trade tensions and tariff uncertainties make it more appealing as a safe-haven asset.
The market will closely watch developments in US-China trade relations and Trump’s changing tariff policies. If economic instability continues, gold could rise further, supported by strong ETF investments and growing geopolitical risks.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading slightly higher at $3,017.54, up just 0.01% in early Tuesday trade, as investors weigh conflicting macroeconomic cues and await fresh catalysts.
On the 4-hour chart, the metal is holding above its key pivot point at $3,014.07—a level that has provided a short-term technical base for bulls.
Price action remains range-bound, but constructive, especially as gold trades above immediate support at $3,000.06 and below the nearby resistance at $3,033.81.
The broader structure shows gold finding support along the rising channel, and though momentum has cooled, the technical picture suggests buyers are still in control—at least for now.
The 50-day EMA, currently at $3,030.25, is acting as dynamic resistance, capping recent upside attempts. A clean break above this level would likely trigger a move toward the next resistance at $3,053.86, with $3,071.37 a possible near-term ceiling.
On the downside, a decisive drop below $3,000.06 could open the door to a deeper pullback toward $2,982.18 and potentially $2,966.96.
That said, any break below $2,999 could negate the current bullish bias and shift sentiment in favor of sellers.
With gold holding just above its pivot and technical structure remaining intact, traders will be closely watching for a breakout above the $3,033–$3,035 zone to confirm the next leg higher. Until then, price is likely to consolidate between $3,000 and $3,033. (edited)
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading around 1.4320, recovering after losses in the previous session.
The pair, which is usually sensitive to market risk sentiment, is gaining strength as traders remain cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement on April 2.
The uncertainty surrounding the potential for new tariffs is affecting investor sentiment, but the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is finding some support due to mixed signals from Trump’s comments. This balance of caution and uncertainty is keeping the pair in focus for traders.
Risk Aversion and Tariff Expectations Impacting USD/CAD
On the CAD front, the Canadian dollar has been buoyed by comments from Trump, who hinted that "a lot" of countries could receive exemptions from the tariffs, though details remain uncertain.
This sparked some optimism among investors, who welcomed the possibility that the US may adopt a more targeted, measured approach to tariffs. This easing of concerns over potential disruptions to Canadian businesses has provided support for the CAD, allowing it to recover against the USD.
Despite this, the US dollar faced pressure due to rising fears of an economic slowdown, fueled in part by concerns surrounding Trump’s trade policies. The uncertainty surrounding the tariff announcement has led to a risk-off sentiment in the markets, with investors seeking safer assets.
However, the pressure on the USD has been somewhat offset by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week. Powell emphasized the solid labor market and inflation moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target, which helped to support the Greenback.
US Economic Data Provides Mixed Signals
On the economic front, the latest data paints a mixed picture for the US economy. The S&P Global US Composite PMI for March rose to 53.5, marking a strong recovery from February’s 10-month low of 51.6 and signaling the strongest expansion since December 2024.
This growth was largely driven by a sharp rebound in business activity in the services sector. The S&P Global US Services PMI surged to a three-month high of 54.3, surpassing expectations and showing a marked improvement from February’s reading of 51.0.
On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI showed signs of weakness, slipping to 49.8 from 52.7 and falling short of expectations. This decline followed February’s strong manufacturing growth, indicating that while the services sector remains robust, the manufacturing sector is facing headwinds.
Therefore, the mixed US economic data, with strong services growth but weak manufacturing, could create volatility in the USD/CAD pair, as traders weigh the overall strength of the US economy.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading marginally lower at $1.43282, just above its pivot point at $1.43084, maintaining a cautiously bullish tone in early trading.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair consolidating above a key support level, with the 50-period EMA positioned at $1.43445. Price action remains tightly compressed between this EMA and immediate resistance at $1.43596, signaling indecision but with an upward lean.
A break above $1.43596 would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially lifting the pair toward the next resistance levels at $1.44013 and $1.44518. These zones represent areas of recent selling interest and will be critical in determining the sustainability of any breakout.
On the downside, if the pair dips below the pivot at $1.43084, immediate support lies at $1.42661. A further breakdown may expose deeper levels at $1.42125 and $1.41602, with the latter serving as a major trendline support zone.
As long as the pair stays above the pivot and reclaims the 50-EMA, short-term bias remains upward. However, any failure to hold above $1.43084 could shift control back to sellers.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair remained steady, trading around 0.6319, with an intra-day high of 0.6323.
Despite some underlying challenges, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been supported by expectations of a cautious approach from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), along with the anticipation of continued Chinese stimulus to boost the Australian economy.
However, the pair faces some challenges from growing concerns over the Australian government's budget deficit and the potential impact of US trade policies.
Australia's Budget Deficit and Economic Outlook
The Australian economy faces a rising budget deficit, with the Treasury projecting a deficit of A$27.6 billion for 2024-25, widening to A$42.1 billion in 2025-26. Despite this, Australia's GDP growth is expected to stabilize at 2.25% in fiscal 2026 and 2.5% in fiscal 2027.
The Australian Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, also announced new tax cuts totaling approximately A$17.1 billion, aimed at garnering political support ahead of upcoming elections.
While these measures could support domestic consumption, the growing budget deficit raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and may limit the Australian government's ability to respond to future economic challenges.
Investors are also looking ahead to the RBA's decisions, with many speculating that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged in April after its first rate cut in four years in February.
Moreover, the Australian economy continues to benefit from its strong trade ties with China, particularly as Chinese policymakers implement measures to stimulate domestic consumption and revitalize their economy.
US Dollar Strengthened by Services PMI Surge
On the US front, the US dollar strengthened amid a surge in the Services PMI, which climbed to 54.3 in March from 51.0 in February, signaling a robust rebound in business activity. The increase in the Services PMI marked a three-month high, further indicating economic resilience despite mixed signals from other sectors.
Meanwhile, the S&P Global US Composite PMI also rose to 53.5, up from February's 51.6, highlighting continued expansion in the economy. However, the US manufacturing sector experienced a slowdown, with the Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8, falling short of market expectations.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has remained stable around 104.30, buoyed by these positive services sector data. While inflation remains a concern for the Federal Reserve, the hawkish stance of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who noted that inflation is moving closer to the 2% target, has provided support for the USD.
Therefore, the stronger US dollar, driven by robust services sector data and Fed's hawkish stance, likely puts downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair, as the USD outperforms the AUD.
Geopolitical Risks and US Trade Policies Impact on AUD/USD
Despite positive data from both the US and Australia, the AUD/USD pair faces risks due to uncertainty around US trade policies. US President Trump's upcoming tariff announcement in early April could affect global trade and economic growth. Although Trump suggested some countries might be exempt from the tariffs, the full details of the plan are still unclear, leaving traders cautious.
Additionally, there are concerns that the US economy could slow down due to trade tensions and the impact of tariffs on key industries like agriculture and coal. These factors could add volatility to the AUD/USD pair, as traders weigh the strong US Dollar against the potential risks to Australia's economy.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is treading water around $0.62861 in Tuesday’s early European session, showing little change on the day.
Despite the neutral tone, price action is gradually aligning with a short-term bullish bias, underpinned by support above the pivot point at $0.62679.
The 4-hour chart reveals consolidation just beneath the 50-period EMA at $0.63170—a level that’s currently acting as a dynamic resistance ceiling.
A decisive move above $0.63172, the immediate resistance level, would confirm bullish control and could open the door toward the next upside targets at $0.63510 and $0.63907.
These levels coincide with recent supply zones, where sellers have historically emerged. Sustained momentum above the 50-EMA could also suggest that buyers are preparing for a broader recovery leg.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.62342, followed by $0.61966 and the deeper floor at $0.61599.
A break below $0.62679 would negate the bullish setup and increase the risk of a slide toward those lower supports.
The broader context remains mixed, with AUD/USD reacting to shifting U.S. rate expectations, commodity sentiment, and Asia-Pacific macro data.
For now, the technicals suggest cautious optimism, but confirmation above $0.63172 is needed before bulls can fully commit to higher targets.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair stopped its three-day decline, trading around 1.0840 on Monday morning.
This rebound happened due to growing concerns over a possible slowdown in the US economy, partly caused by trade policy uncertainties under President Donald Trump, which have negatively impacted the US Dollar.
As a result, investors are now focused on the recently released Eurozone’s manufacturing sector data, which showed some signs of recovery. This was seen as another key factor that underpinned the EUR/USD pair.
Mixed Eurozone PMI Data Impacts EUR/USD Performance
On the EUR front, the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector showed some signs of recovery, while the services sector underperformed in March.
According to the latest data from the HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.7 in March, up from 47.6 in February, surpassing the market expectation of 48. This marks a slight easing of the manufacturing contraction, providing some support for the Euro.
Meanwhile, the Services PMI in the Eurozone declined to 50.4 in March from 50.6 in February, falling short of the anticipated 51 and marking a four-month low.
The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite increased slightly to 50.4 in March, from 50.2 in February, reflecting a modest improvement in overall business activity across the region.
In Germany, the region's largest economy, the manufacturing sector performed better than expected, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 48.3 in March, up from 46.5 in February and surpassing the expected 47.7.
This was the highest reading in 31 months, signaling a recovery in the industrial sector. On the other hand, the Services PMI in Germany fell to 50.2, down from 51.1 in February, hitting a four-month low and adding to concerns about the region's growth prospects.
Therefore, the mixed PMI data, with manufacturing showing recovery and services underperforming, may support the Euro but limit its upside, keeping the EUR/USD pair range-bound as investors await further economic signals.
US Economic Concerns and Geopolitical Developments Weigh on the Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains under pressure due to growing concerns over President Trump's trade policies, especially his approach to reciprocal tariffs.
However, the White House is revising its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 deadline, with reports suggesting some industry-specific tariffs may be dropped while new tariffs will be imposed on countries with strong trade ties to the US.
This move aims to address trade imbalances but has raised concerns that it could slow down global economic growth, particularly in the Eurozone, which is closely tied to US trade.
Moreover, the geopolitical tensions also played a role in market sentiment, with easing concerns following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh over the weekend.
The ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Ukraine war and President Trump’s calls for an end to the conflict have helped reduce some geopolitical risk, contributing to improved investor sentiment.
Therefore, the US dollar’s pressure from trade policy concerns and geopolitical tensions, alongside improved sentiment from the Ukraine talks, could lead to a weaker dollar, potentially supporting a higher EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading slightly lower at $1.08457, down 0.02% on the day, as the pair navigates a tight range ahead of key U.S. economic data later this week.
Despite the marginal pullback, the euro remains above the pivotal support at $1.08049—a level that continues to attract buying interest and has helped stabilize recent price action.
Technically, the 4-hour chart reveals that EUR/USD is caught between its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08802 and the pivot zone near $1.08049.
A clear move above the EMA could trigger fresh upside momentum toward immediate resistance at $1.08680, followed by $1.09177 and $1.09516.
These levels correspond to recent consolidation zones and would likely require increased volume to break decisively.
On the downside, should the pair slip below $1.08049, initial support rests at $1.07656, with deeper floors at $1.07214 and $1.06780. A breach below $1.07656 would indicate waning bullish control and potentially invite additional selling pressure.
As long as the pair holds above $1.08049, the near-term bias remains slightly bullish—but momentum is fragile and driven by upcoming data catalysts.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well-bid around 1.2961, hitting the intra-day high of 1.2975.
The reason for this upward movement can be linked to a softer US Dollar, which is under pressure due to growing concerns over the potential US economic slowdown.
Additionally, uncertainty surrounding President Trump's impending trade policies, particularly his aggressive stance on tariffs, has added to the bearish sentiment around the Greenback.
GBP/USD Supported by Mixed UK PMI Data Amid Manufacturing Weakness and Services Strength
On the other hand, the gain in the GBP/USD pair was further bolstered by the mixed UK PMI data. The latest report showed a disappointing drop in the UK’s Manufacturing PMI for March, falling to 44.6 from February's 46.9, which was below the expected 47.3. This weaker manufacturing data raised concerns about the overall health of the UK economy.
However, the negative impact from the manufacturing sector was offset by stronger-than-expected data from the UK Services PMI, which surged to 53.2 in March, well above February's 51 and the forecast of 51.2.
The contrast between the weak manufacturing data and strong services sector performance helped to support the Pound, keeping the GBP/USD pair steady around 1.2950.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Trade Policy Concerns and Economic Data Release
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar is facing growing pressure due to concerns over President Trump's trade policies. Trump has announced April 2 as "Liberation Day," a date when he plans to implement reciprocal tariffs on trade partners in industries like automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.
While these tariffs are aimed at addressing trade imbalances, analysts are worried they could push the US economy into a recession, which would weaken the US Dollar.
Additionally, the market is closely awaiting the release of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI later today. This data is expected to provide further insight into the health of the US economy.
A disappointing reading could add more pressure on the Greenback, potentially benefiting the GBP as investors seek safer or more stable assets.
BoE Maintains Cautious Outlook as Investors Await Key UK Economic Data
Apart from this, the Bank of England (BoE) has kept its cautious outlook by leaving interest rates unchanged at 4.5%.
Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the ongoing uncertainty in the economy and mentioned that the central bank is considering a gradual rate-cut path in the coming years.
Analysts predict the BoE will lower rates by 100 basis points, bringing the terminal rate to 3.5% by early 2026.
Despite this dovish stance, the BoE's decision hasn't had a major negative impact on the Pound. Investors are focusing more on upcoming UK economic data, particularly February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which is set to be released on Wednesday.
This data could provide clearer insights into the UK economy and influence future decisions from the BoE.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is holding steady at $1.29491, showing minimal movement in early Tuesday trading. The pair remains within a short-term consolidation range, supported by improving risk sentiment and broad U.S. dollar consolidation.
The current structure reflects a tug-of-war between technical resistance and supportive macro undercurrents.
On the 4-hour chart, price action is hovering just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.29660.
A decisive break above this zone could open the door to further gains, with immediate resistance levels aligned at $1.29703, followed by $1.30133 and $1.30457. These levels represent critical hurdles that GBP/USD must clear to resume a more sustained uptrend.
The pivot point sits at $1.29170. As long as the pair holds above this threshold, the near-term bullish bias remains valid.
A break below $1.29170 could expose the pair to downside support at $1.28879, with further cushions at $1.28616 and $1.28212.
Traders will be watching closely for upcoming U.K. inflation data, which could influence short-term rate expectations and impact sterling’s momentum.
In the meantime, a potential long setup emerges with entry above $1.29315, targeting a move toward $1.29802, while a protective stop below $1.29003 helps manage downside risk.
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GOLD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) managed to stop its downward trend and gained momentum above the $3,030 level. However, this upward movement could be short-lived due to improved market sentiment following news about changes in US trade policy.
The Trump administration is considering easing the broad tariffs imposed on April 2 and shifting to more targeted tariffs focused on specific sectors or regions.
This shift has reduced market concerns about the possibility of widespread retaliatory tariffs, which could hurt the global economy.
While the goal of these tariffs is to bring manufacturing back to the US, experts believe that much higher tariffs, along with government subsidies, would be needed to truly reshuffle global supply chains.
Therefore, the potential easing of broad tariffs and shift to targeted tariffs could reduce market uncertainty, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal and potentially halting its upward momentum in the short term.
US Dollar Pulls Back Amid Economic Concerns and Fed Tightening Signals
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower, pulling back from its three-day winning streak and trading around 104.00.
This decline comes amid increasing concerns about a potential slowdown in the US economy, partly due to President Trump's trade policies.
However, the Greenback had briefly strengthened after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week, where he mentioned that while the labor market is strong and inflation is moving closer to the Fed's 2% target, it remains above desired levels.
This suggests that the Fed might continue tightening its monetary policy. However, overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Gold Gains Appeal Amid US Dollar Weakness and Rising Global Risks
Despite the weakness of the US dollar, gold remains a popular safe-haven asset as global economic and geopolitical risks increase.
Traders are paying close attention to the potential effects of new tariffs, changes in trade policies, and ongoing tensions with China.
This market uncertainty, along with growing demand for gold, has made the precious metal even more attractive.
At the same time, Chinese metals producer Zijin Mining Group reported record profits, thanks to rising gold and copper prices.
The company also highlighted growing global economic risks, reinforcing the idea that investors are turning to gold amid rising market uncertainty.
Despite the challenges ahead, gold’s performance will likely be influenced by the results of US trade policies and upcoming economic data.
The March US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI could offer insights into the US economy’s health, which may affect investor sentiment towards gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading slightly lower at $3,023.95, down 0.04% on the day, as investors digest shifting interest rate expectations and geopolitical headlines.
The metal is consolidating within a well-defined range, holding just above its key pivot point at $3,014.07. This zone is critical for near-term direction, as a sustained break above this level could reinforce the bullish case.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $3,033.70, acts as immediate dynamic resistance.
A break above this EMA would open the door for a retest of the first resistance at $3,033.81, followed by $3,053.86 and the upper barrier at $3,071.37. These levels align with recent swing highs and represent important technical hurdles for buyers.
On the downside, gold is finding initial support at $3,000.06. A break below this figure could trigger a deeper pullback toward $2,982.18 and $2,966.96, the latter coinciding with the lower boundary of the current ascending channel.
Despite today’s marginal decline, gold’s broader structure remains intact as long as price holds above the $3,000 psychological level.
Traders are watching closely for confirmation of direction, especially ahead of key U.S. economic data releases later this week.
A decisive move above $3,033 could spark bullish momentum toward $3,046—close to the short-term take-profit zone. Conversely, a breach below $2,999 would likely invalidate the current bullish setup.
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