USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY maintains a bullish structure above the 50-period SMA, targeting 145.110.
- RSI at 69.82 signals strong momentum without immediate overbought risk.
- The pair needs to clear 144.640 for a sustained breakout, with downside risk contained at 143.424.
USD/JPY is trading around 144.389, maintaining its upward momentum within a well-defined ascending channel on the 1-hour chart. The pair has recently cleared the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 143.242, reinforcing the bullish structure.
This move above the 50 SMA indicates strong buying interest, as this level often acts as a dynamic support in trending markets.
From a price action perspective, the recent candles have formed a sequence of higher lows, confirming the bullish trend.
The sharp upward move from the 143.000 region has been supported by a bullish engulfing candle, which provided the initial breakout above the 143.242 support.
This bullish momentum has carried the price towards the critical resistance at 144.640, the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
A successful break above this level could open the door to the next major resistance at 145.110, aligning with the take profit target.
Momentum indicators further support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to 69.82, indicating strong positive momentum, but without yet entering the overbought territory, suggesting room for further upside.
Additionally, the 50-period SMA remains a key support level, currently holding the bullish structure intact.
However, a failure to break above 144.640 could lead to a pullback towards the 144.002 mid-channel support or even the critical 143.424 stop loss level, where buyers are expected to re-enter aggressively.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 144.078
Take Profit – 145.110
Stop Loss – 143.424
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1032/ -$654
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$103/ -$65
USD/JPY Price Analysis – May 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair has seen a notable uptrend, propelled by persistent JPY weakness and a series of factors, including the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and growing optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade deal.
At the time of writing, the pair hit the 145.00, driven by the ongoing outperformance of the US Dollar, which has remained supported by the Fed’s decision to pause on rate cuts.
JPY Weakness Fueled by Geopolitical Optimism and Safe-Haven Shift
On the JPY front, the Japanese Yen's decline can be largely attributed to market optimism around US President Donald Trump's comments regarding an upcoming trade deal, which is expected to boost the US-China trade talks scheduled for later in the week.
Trump’s remarks have helped shift risk sentiment, undermining the demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as the Yen. Investors are increasingly optimistic about the potential for progress in global trade, which has translated into a weaker Yen for the second consecutive day.
Despite Trump’s cautious stance on tariff talks, his trade comments have boosted market sentiment, increasing confidence in riskier assets and putting pressure on the Yen.
This supports the ongoing strength of the USD, as the market expects the Fed to keep rates steady and avoid cuts in the near future.
Fed’s Hawkish Pause Adds to USD Strength Amid JPY Weakness
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains strong due to the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish signals.
The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates steady without hinting at cuts has supported the USD. Despite growing uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies, the Fed's cautious approach has helped the dollar stay strong, even amid geopolitical risks.
Hence, the Fed's hawkish pause comes as trade tariff concerns grow, with Jerome Powell acknowledging the uncertainty around trade policies.
However, Powell emphasized that the current approach is the best given the unclear global trade situation.
Therefore, this mix of strong domestic policy and optimism about trade talks has helped the USD continue its rally against the JPY.
Geopolitical Tensions and Market Uncertainty Limit JPY Losses
On the flip side, the ongoing concerns over geopolitical tensions have tempered the extent of JPY's losses. Russia and Ukraine's ongoing conflict, along with heightened instability in the Middle East, including Israel's recent military actions, have kept investors wary.
These geopolitical risks, combined with Trump’s uncertain tariff stance, have created an environment of volatility, limiting JPY’s slide and keeping the market in a state of cautious optimism.
Therefore, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has also weighed in on the situation. The BoJ’s minutes from its March meeting indicated that the central bank remains ready to tighten policy further if inflation trends hold.
However, the BoJ expressed caution due to the global volatility stemming from US tariff policies. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks on the rising food prices and the potential impact on inflation further suggest that the bank may not abandon its rate hike plans, which could help mitigate deeper JPY losses.
Looking forward, investors are closely watching US economic data, like the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report, to gauge the economy.
The mix of the Fed's hawkish pause, trade deal optimism, and geopolitical uncertainty is likely to keep causing fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair. The US Dollar should stay strong, while the Japanese Yen remains sensitive to shifts in market sentiment.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading around 144.389, maintaining its upward momentum within a well-defined ascending channel on the 1-hour chart. The pair has recently cleared the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 143.242, reinforcing the bullish structure.
This move above the 50 SMA indicates strong buying interest, as this level often acts as a dynamic support in trending markets.
From a price action perspective, the recent candles have formed a sequence of higher lows, confirming the bullish trend.
The sharp upward move from the 143.000 region has been supported by a bullish engulfing candle, which provided the initial breakout above the 143.242 support.
This bullish momentum has carried the price towards the critical resistance at 144.640, the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
A successful break above this level could open the door to the next major resistance at 145.110, aligning with the take profit target.
Momentum indicators further support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to 69.82, indicating strong positive momentum, but without yet entering the overbought territory, suggesting room for further upside.
Additionally, the 50-period SMA remains a key support level, currently holding the bullish structure intact.
However, a failure to break above 144.640 could lead to a pullback towards the 144.002 mid-channel support or even the critical 143.424 stop loss level, where buyers are expected to re-enter aggressively.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY broke above 144.03, confirming bullish momentum.
- RSI overbought, but trend and structure favor continued upside.
- Entry above 144.03 targets 145.74 with stop at 143.01.
USD/JPY has broken out aggressively from consolidation and is now trading at 144.38, having breached a critical resistance at 144.03. Price surged from the ascending channel’s lower boundary, confirming the bullish structure, and is now approaching the midline of the rising parallel channel.
A bullish engulfing candle formed at the breakout point, supported by strong volume and follow-through, suggests further upside potential.
The 50-period SMA at 142.976 has begun sloping upward and now aligns with dynamic support. Price is trading firmly above both the 50 SMA and the channel’s median line, signaling trend continuation.
The RSI is currently at 72.82—technically overbought—but historically, during strong uptrends, it tends to hover above 70 for extended periods. No immediate divergence is visible, which further supports the bullish outlook.
Immediate resistance stands at 145.13, with further upside potential toward 146.15 and 147.15 if momentum continues.
On the downside, 144.03 is the key breakout level to watch; any retest that holds could offer a buying opportunity. Further support sits at 143.01, which aligns with the ascending trendline and SMA support.
While RSI suggests some caution, the overall structure—breakout above resistance, channel continuation, and SMA alignment—favors bulls.
A daily close above 145.13 could confirm further gains toward 146.15, completing the next leg of the ascending channel.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 144.033
Take Profit – 145.741
Stop Loss – 143.012
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1708/ -$1021
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$170/ -$102
USD/JPY Price Analysis – May 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Thursday's European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair continued its upward momentum, climbing to the 144.25 level.
However, the surge was largely driven by the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and growing optimism surrounding the potential de-escalation of the US-China trade conflict.
Therefore, the combination of these factors weighed heavily on the Japanese Yen (JPY) and contributed to the gains in the USD/JPY pair.
BoJ's Dovish Outlook Dampens Expectations for Rate Hike
However, the recent BoJ meeting played a key role in the Yen's decline. The BoJ kept its interest rate at 0.5%, as expected, but its cautious outlook reduced hopes for a rate hike soon.
Governor Kazuo Ueda said Japan’s inflation wouldn't hit the 2% target in the short term, delaying any rate increase plans for June or July. This, along with a lowered inflation forecast for fiscal 2026, highlights Japan's struggle to achieve stable inflation, weakening the Yen further.
Ueda also mentioned that Japan's economic outlook is uncertain, mainly due to global trade issues, especially ongoing US tariffs. While Japan’s economy is "roughly on track," changes in US trade policy could have a big impact on Japan’s monetary decisions.
US-China Trade Optimism Adds Pressure to the JPY
Meanwhile, renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade relations also weighed on the Yen. US President Donald Trump’s remarks fueled market sentiment, suggesting the possibility of a trade deal with China, and the broader hope that the US-China trade war could de-escalate.
This positive tone surrounding risk assets undermined the JPY, traditionally a safe-haven currency in times of uncertainty, as investors favored higher-yielding assets.
Trump’s comments about trade deals with countries such as India, South Korea, and Japan, along with the "very good probability" of reaching a deal with China, further bolstered optimism in the markets.
These signals of de-escalation helped support the USD, as investors took a more risk-on approach, leaving the JPY vulnerable to further declines.
US Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Speculation
On the other hand, the US economic data painted a mixed picture. The latest employment figures from ADP showed a sharp slowdown in private-sector job growth in April, with only 62,000 new jobs added, well below expectations.
Meanwhile, the US GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, stoking concerns about a potential US recession. Additionally, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation gauge, edged lower to 2.3% in March, adding to the belief that inflationary pressures are easing.
Despite the somewhat gloomy data, market participants remain focused on the Federal Reserve's dovish outlook.
There is growing speculation that the Fed may resume its rate-cutting cycle in June, with traders pricing in the possibility of a full 100 basis points cut by the end of the year.
Therefore, the prospect of further rate cuts by the Fed weighs on the USD, limiting its strength, but the overall positive risk sentiment and market optimism around US-China trade relations continue to support the USD/JPY pair's bullish trend.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY has broken out aggressively from consolidation and is now trading at 144.38, having breached a critical resistance at 144.03. Price surged from the ascending channel’s lower boundary, confirming the bullish structure, and is now approaching the midline of the rising parallel channel.
A bullish engulfing candle formed at the breakout point, supported by strong volume and follow-through, suggests further upside potential.
The 50-period SMA at 142.976 has begun sloping upward and now aligns with dynamic support. Price is trading firmly above both the 50 SMA and the channel’s median line, signaling trend continuation.
The RSI is currently at 72.82—technically overbought—but historically, during strong uptrends, it tends to hover above 70 for extended periods. No immediate divergence is visible, which further supports the bullish outlook.
Immediate resistance stands at 145.13, with further upside potential toward 146.15 and 147.15 if momentum continues.
On the downside, 144.03 is the key breakout level to watch; any retest that holds could offer a buying opportunity. Further support sits at 143.01, which aligns with the ascending trendline and SMA support.
While RSI suggests some caution, the overall structure—breakout above resistance, channel continuation, and SMA alignment—favors bulls.
A daily close above 145.13 could confirm further gains toward 146.15, completing the next leg of the ascending channel.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Channel: USD/JPY trades inside a rising channel; higher lows support near-term uptrend.
- RSI Holding Above 50: RSI at 59.27 indicates bullish momentum is still intact.
- Breakout Watch: A sustained move above 142.58 confirms continuation toward 144.29.
USD/JPY continues to hold within a rising price channel after bouncing off the 141.57 support. Price is currently testing a confluence zone marked by the 50-period SMA (142.59) and previous resistance-turned-support at 142.58. A breakout above this level could open the door toward 144.29 in the near term.
The pair has also breached the descending trendline from the March high, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. RSI at 59.27 supports the bullish outlook, as it remains above the 50 threshold, suggesting buyers are still in control. However, traders should monitor for potential rejection around the channel top.
Should price drop below 141.57, the bullish structure would weaken, exposing 140.19 as the next support level.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 142.585
Take Profit – 144.293
Stop Loss – 141.564
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1708/ -$1021
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$170/ -$102
USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Thursday, the USD/JPY currency pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing resistance around the 142.39 level.
However, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained strength amid renewed safe-haven demand, driven by global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
While the Fed continues tightening, the BoJ maintains its accommodative stance, supporting JPY demand and putting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Geopolitical Uncertainty and Trade Concerns Drive JPY’s Safe-Haven Demand
However, the recent developments in US-China trade relations have been a key factor supporting the JPY's safe-haven appeal. US President Donald Trump's remarks on tariffs have dampened optimism for a quick resolution to the trade standoff. Trump hinted that the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports might be reduced significantly in the future.
Nevertheless, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent contradicted earlier reports, suggesting that the White House might await China's move before making any tariff adjustments. This uncertainty has contributed to a renewed demand for the JPY, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency.
Moreover, Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, raised concerns about the negative impact of US tariffs on market stability. Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, will visit the US on April 30 to discuss the tariffs further.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also mentioned the possibility of policy changes if the tariffs harm Japan's economic growth, highlighting the risks to the country’s economy.
Diverging Central Bank Policies Weigh on USD/JPY Pair
Therefore, the divergence between the Fed's dovish stance and the BoJ's more hawkish outlook has created a significant policy gap, further pressuring the USD/JPY pair.
Market expectations for the Fed to cut rates multiple times this year have weighed heavily on the US Dollar, limiting its ability to capitalize on recent recovery gains.
Traders are pricing in the possibility of a rate-cut cycle beginning as soon as June, with more cuts expected by year-end. This dovish outlook contrasts sharply with the BoJ’s stance, which remains focused on tightening policy to address inflation concerns.
Japan's inflation has remained persistently above the BoJ's 2% target, and traders are increasingly convinced that the BoJ will raise interest rates in 2025.
Moving ahead, traders turn their attention to the US economic calendar, upcoming data such as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Existing Home Sales will be closely monitored for further clues on the Fed's future actions.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY continues to hold within a rising price channel after bouncing off the 141.57 support. Price is currently testing a confluence zone marked by the 50-period SMA (142.59) and previous resistance-turned-support at 142.58. A breakout above this level could open the door toward 144.29 in the near term.
The pair has also breached the descending trendline from the March high, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. RSI at 59.27 supports the bullish outlook, as it remains above the 50 threshold, suggesting buyers are still in control. However, traders should monitor for potential rejection around the channel top.
Should price drop below 141.57, the bullish structure would weaken, exposing 140.19 as the next support level.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session on Thursday, the USD/JPY pair remained steady above the 142.61 level, supported by modest US dollar strength and a continued bearish bias in the Japanese Yen.
The pair managed to hold firm despite the mixed market sentiment, global trade uncertainty, and diverging central bank outlooks, with traders closely monitoring developments from both sides of the Pacific.
Global Risk Appetite Weighs on Yen Amid Ongoing Trade and Economic Concerns
However, the recent uptick in global risk appetite, driven by optimism over potential tariff negotiations and easing trade tensions, has undermined traditional safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen. Asian equity markets and US futures edged higher on Thursday, following a tech-led slump on Wall Street.
However, ongoing concerns around US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff measures, escalating US-China tensions, and fears of a global economic slowdown continue to cap overall optimism.
BoJ Rate Hike Speculation and Trade Talks with the US Support Yen Outlook
On the flip side, expectations that Japan might strike a trade deal with the US and that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates at some point are helping to prevent bigger losses in the Yen.
However, the cautious outlook has been reinforced by comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who mentioned that the central bank might pause its rate hikes if US tariffs hurt Japan’s economy.
Moreover, the reports from Reuters suggest that the BoJ is expected to lower its growth forecasts at the upcoming policy meeting due to growing risks linked to trade. These factors are keeping the Yen from falling too sharply against the US Dollar.
Furthermore, Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa have indicated progress in talks with the US, with more meetings planned and a strong hope for a deal within the next 90 days.
Meanwhile, BoJ board member Junko Nagakawa also took a more hawkish stance, stating that the central bank will keep tightening its policies if inflation and economic activity continue on their current path. This adds to the overall outlook of gradual economic adjustments in Japan.
USD/JPY Traders Eye Fed Signals Amid Sticky Inflation and Hawkish Powell Comments
On the US side, the US dollar recovered some ground after Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on immediate rate cut expectations, citing sticky inflation and economic uncertainty tied to new tariffs.
His comments came alongside a stronger-than-expected 1.4% rise in US retail sales for March, reinforcing the view that the Fed may stay on hold for longer.
Despite Powell's hawkish tone, markets are still pricing in at least three rate cuts this year due to concerns over a tariff-driven economic slowdown.
Recent developments in the US-China trade war — including new restrictions on AI chip exports and retaliatory Chinese tariffs — have only added to the uncertainty.
With mixed cues from both the Fed and BoJ, traders now turn their focus to upcoming US macro data, including jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, for fresh short-term direction in the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is attempting to recover after briefly dipping below the 142.15 support zone, with price now testing both horizontal and descending trendline resistance near 142.95.
The pair remains within a broader downtrend but has shown signs of stabilizing near recent lows. A breakout above the 143.20 level could shift short-term momentum to the upside, opening room toward 144.31 — a key horizontal resistance.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 142.95 is currently acting as dynamic resistance. Price is attempting to push above this barrier, and any sustained break would suggest a change in directional bias.
Meanwhile, the RSI has climbed to 49.3, recovering from sub-40 levels. Though not signaling strong momentum yet, it reflects improving sentiment.
The key trigger level for bullish continuation is 143.20. A clean break above this level would confirm a breakout from the descending trendline and a potential bullish reversal pattern. If confirmed, the next upside level to monitor is 144.31, followed by 145.15.
On the flip side, failure to break higher and a drop below 142.15 would reinforce the prevailing downtrend and bring 142.03 and 140.84 back into focus.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Trendline Breakout in Play: USD/JPY eyes a close above 143.20 to shift bias.
- SMA Pressure: 50-SMA at 142.95 is the immediate resistance to watch.
- Momentum Rebuilding: RSI at 49.3 shows early signs of recovery from bearish territory.
USD/JPY is attempting to recover after briefly dipping below the 142.15 support zone, with price now testing both horizontal and descending trendline resistance near 142.95.
The pair remains within a broader downtrend but has shown signs of stabilizing near recent lows. A breakout above the 143.20 level could shift short-term momentum to the upside, opening room toward 144.31 — a key horizontal resistance.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 142.95 is currently acting as dynamic resistance. Price is attempting to push above this barrier, and any sustained break would suggest a change in directional bias.
Meanwhile, the RSI has climbed to 49.3, recovering from sub-40 levels. Though not signaling strong momentum yet, it reflects improving sentiment.
The key trigger level for bullish continuation is 143.20. A clean break above this level would confirm a breakout from the descending trendline and a potential bullish reversal pattern. If confirmed, the next upside level to monitor is 144.31, followed by 145.15.
On the flip side, failure to break higher and a drop below 142.15 would reinforce the prevailing downtrend and bring 142.03 and 140.84 back into focus.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Stop 143.199
Take Profit – 144.312
Stop Loss – 142.157
Risk to Reward – 1: 1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1113/ -$1042
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$111/ -$104
USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY consolidates below major resistance at 148.08.
- 50 EMA at 146.43 acts as a key support level.
- Neutral RSI suggests a wait-and-see mode for traders.
USD/JPY is trading near 146.74 after slipping below the 147.00 threshold, with resistance at 148.08 capping recent gains. Despite an earlier push higher, the pair has retreated toward the 146.64 pivot zone, which now acts as a key inflection point.
The 50 EMA at 146.43 provides nearby support, and a sustained move above 148.08 would be needed to signal bullish continuation toward 148.98 and potentially 150.53.
On the downside, 146.43 is the level to watch. A break below exposes the pair to further losses toward 145.86 and 144.97. The RSI reads 52.72, suggesting neutral-to-bullish momentum, though upside conviction remains soft.
Price is currently rangebound, with traders awaiting cues from upcoming U.S. inflation data and broader risk sentiment shifts. Unless USD/JPY breaks through 148.08, buyers may remain sidelined.
Momentum is tentative. A move above 148.08 may revive bullish sentiment, but holding above 146.64 is critical for near-term upside.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 146.640
Take Profit – 148.084
Stop Loss – 145.867
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1444/ -$773
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$144/ -$77
USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair showed signs of weakness, edging lower as the market awaited key inflation data from the US.
The pair remained under pressure, with market participants opting to remain on the sidelines ahead of the release of the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data later in the week.
These reports are expected to offer fresh clues on the future path of US interest rates, which could heavily influence the US Dollar's trajectory and provide fresh momentum to the USD/JPY pair.
Divergence in Central Bank Policies Weighs on USD/JPY
However, the near-term bias for the USD/JPY pair seems to favor the Japanese Yen (JPY) bulls, fueled by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates further.
This outlook is supported by stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data from Japan, which revealed a 0.4% rise in March, bringing the annual increase to 4.2%.
These higher-than-expected figures could lead to a potential increase in consumer prices, which in turn would strengthen the case for further policy tightening by the BoJ.
In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is facing growing expectations for multiple interest rate cuts, as the US economy shows signs of inflationary pressure and slowing growth, exacerbated by trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
This divergence in central bank policies—hawkish expectations from the BoJ and dovish projections for the Fed—creates a bearish environment for the USD, which in turn supports the JPY.
US Inflation Data Could Provide New Direction for USD/JPY
Market sentiment surrounding the USD/JPY pair was also influenced by the ongoing developments in global trade. President Trump's agreement to meet with Japanese officials to discuss trade relations and the subsequent comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who suggested that Japan might become a priority in tariff negotiations, added an additional layer of support for the JPY.
Therefore, the potential for a US-Japan trade deal remains on the table, contributing to a more favorable outlook for the Japanese Yen.
In addition, the market was buoyed by a temporary rebound in the US Dollar after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariff increases for most countries, reducing some of the global trade uncertainties. This move helped lift equity markets, with the S&P 500 registering its biggest daily gain since 2008.
However, this optimism was tempered by the Fed's cautious stance, as revealed in the March FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes showed that officials were concerned about higher inflation and slower growth, urging caution in rate-cut decisions.
Traders are now expecting the Fed to hold off on further rate cuts until at least June, with only 75 basis points of reductions priced in by the end of the year. This cautious outlook has left USD bulls hesitant to make significant moves ahead of the US inflation reports, further contributing to the JPY's strength.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading near 146.74 after slipping below the 147.00 threshold, with resistance at 148.08 capping recent gains. Despite an earlier push higher, the pair has retreated toward the 146.64 pivot zone, which now acts as a key inflection point.
The 50 EMA at 146.43 provides nearby support, and a sustained move above 148.08 would be needed to signal bullish continuation toward 148.98 and potentially 150.53.
On the downside, 146.43 is the level to watch. A break below exposes the pair to further losses toward 145.86 and 144.97. The RSI reads 52.72, suggesting neutral-to-bullish momentum, though upside conviction remains soft.
Price is currently rangebound, with traders awaiting cues from upcoming U.S. inflation data and broader risk sentiment shifts. Unless USD/JPY breaks through 148.08, buyers may remain sidelined.
Momentum is tentative. A move above 148.08 may revive bullish sentiment, but holding above 146.64 is critical for near-term upside.
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