S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 11, 2025

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P 500 Index extended its losses and fell sharply to the 5,268 level during early US trading hours on Friday, as fears over an escalating US-China trade war rattled investor sentiment. The sell-off intensified after both Washington and Beijing introduced fresh tariff hikes, stoking fears of a broader economic slowdown.

S&P 500 Hit by US Tariff Surge and China’s Retaliation

The decline in the S&P 500 came shortly after the White House confirmed a cumulative 145% tariff on Chinese imports, with the new round including a 125% hike on top of the existing 20% duty. In retaliation, China’s Finance Ministry announced it would raise tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%, effective Saturday, April 12.

This tit-for-tat action between the two largest economies has triggered a wave of risk aversion, sending equities lower while safe-haven assets like Gold rallied. The US Dollar also weakened significantly, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling to a three-year low below 99.50, as markets feared the worsening trade war would weigh on economic growth.

S&P 500 Under Pressure from Fed Cut Bets and Weak US Inflation

Adding to the bearish pressure on equities, soft US inflation data has further raised expectations of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, missing forecasts of 2.6%, while core CPI rose just 2.8%, below the expected 3.0%. The monthly CPI even posted a surprise 0.1% drop.

As a result, market participants are now pricing in up to 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end, with the first move potentially arriving as early as June. The dovish outlook has added to concerns over slowing economic momentum and pressured the S&P 500 even further.

Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting signaled that Fed policymakers are facing a difficult balancing act between tackling inflation and supporting growth — a dynamic that adds uncertainty to the market outlook.

Global Trade Risks and Weak China Data Amplify S&P 500 Declines

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Meanwhile, global growth worries were compounded by disappointing inflation data from China. The country’s CPI dropped 0.1% in March, while PPI contracted by 2.5% annually — both worse than expected. These figures reflect cooling demand in the world’s second-largest economy, further weighing on risk assets like US equities.

Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for countries other than China in a bid to ease trade tensions, the gesture did little to soothe investor concerns, as the escalating standoff with Beijing remains the dominant risk factor.

Looking ahead, market focus now shifts to the upcoming US March Producer Price Index (PPI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. However, unless trade tensions ease, the S&P 500 may continue to face downside pressure in the sessions ahead.

S&P 500 – Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 is attempting to stabilize after its recent selloff, now consolidating around 5,268. A modest bounce from the 5,200 zone has brought the index back into a key technical confluence near the descending trendline and the 50-period SMA at 5,433.

This area is critical, as it marks a cluster of resistance from both a structural and moving average standpoint.

The index remains range-bound between 5,208 and 5,345, with short-term buyers showing interest above 5,211 support. The RSI at 49.76 reflects a neutral momentum tone, suggesting potential for either a breakout or more consolidation.

A sustained move above 5,345 would expose the next key resistance at 5,400, while a failure to clear this level could see the index revisiting 5,211 and possibly 5,108.

Price structure suggests a higher low is forming near 5,200, with the broader uptrend still technically intact as long as the ascending trendline holds. The 50 SMA, currently at 5,433, will act as a key barrier for bulls to reclaim in order to shift sentiment more decisively upward.

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