GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well-bid around 1.2961, hitting the intra-day high of 1.2975.
The reason for this upward movement can be linked to a softer US Dollar, which is under pressure due to growing concerns over the potential US economic slowdown.
Additionally, uncertainty surrounding President Trump's impending trade policies, particularly his aggressive stance on tariffs, has added to the bearish sentiment around the Greenback.
GBP/USD Supported by Mixed UK PMI Data Amid Manufacturing Weakness and Services Strength
On the other hand, the gain in the GBP/USD pair was further bolstered by the mixed UK PMI data. The latest report showed a disappointing drop in the UK’s Manufacturing PMI for March, falling to 44.6 from February's 46.9, which was below the expected 47.3. This weaker manufacturing data raised concerns about the overall health of the UK economy.
However, the negative impact from the manufacturing sector was offset by stronger-than-expected data from the UK Services PMI, which surged to 53.2 in March, well above February's 51 and the forecast of 51.2.
The contrast between the weak manufacturing data and strong services sector performance helped to support the Pound, keeping the GBP/USD pair steady around 1.2950.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Trade Policy Concerns and Economic Data Release
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar is facing growing pressure due to concerns over President Trump's trade policies. Trump has announced April 2 as "Liberation Day," a date when he plans to implement reciprocal tariffs on trade partners in industries like automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.
While these tariffs are aimed at addressing trade imbalances, analysts are worried they could push the US economy into a recession, which would weaken the US Dollar.
Additionally, the market is closely awaiting the release of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI later today. This data is expected to provide further insight into the health of the US economy.
A disappointing reading could add more pressure on the Greenback, potentially benefiting the GBP as investors seek safer or more stable assets.
BoE Maintains Cautious Outlook as Investors Await Key UK Economic Data
Apart from this, the Bank of England (BoE) has kept its cautious outlook by leaving interest rates unchanged at 4.5%.
Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the ongoing uncertainty in the economy and mentioned that the central bank is considering a gradual rate-cut path in the coming years.
Analysts predict the BoE will lower rates by 100 basis points, bringing the terminal rate to 3.5% by early 2026.
Despite this dovish stance, the BoE's decision hasn't had a major negative impact on the Pound. Investors are focusing more on upcoming UK economic data, particularly February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which is set to be released on Wednesday.
This data could provide clearer insights into the UK economy and influence future decisions from the BoE.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is holding steady at $1.29491, showing minimal movement in early Tuesday trading. The pair remains within a short-term consolidation range, supported by improving risk sentiment and broad U.S. dollar consolidation.
The current structure reflects a tug-of-war between technical resistance and supportive macro undercurrents.
On the 4-hour chart, price action is hovering just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.29660.
A decisive break above this zone could open the door to further gains, with immediate resistance levels aligned at $1.29703, followed by $1.30133 and $1.30457. These levels represent critical hurdles that GBP/USD must clear to resume a more sustained uptrend.
The pivot point sits at $1.29170. As long as the pair holds above this threshold, the near-term bullish bias remains valid.
A break below $1.29170 could expose the pair to downside support at $1.28879, with further cushions at $1.28616 and $1.28212.
Traders will be watching closely for upcoming U.K. inflation data, which could influence short-term rate expectations and impact sterling’s momentum.
In the meantime, a potential long setup emerges with entry above $1.29315, targeting a move toward $1.29802, while a protective stop below $1.29003 helps manage downside risk.
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