EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair stopped its three-day decline, trading around 1.0840 on Monday morning.
This rebound happened due to growing concerns over a possible slowdown in the US economy, partly caused by trade policy uncertainties under President Donald Trump, which have negatively impacted the US Dollar.
As a result, investors are now focused on the recently released Eurozone’s manufacturing sector data, which showed some signs of recovery. This was seen as another key factor that underpinned the EUR/USD pair.
Mixed Eurozone PMI Data Impacts EUR/USD Performance
On the EUR front, the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector showed some signs of recovery, while the services sector underperformed in March.
According to the latest data from the HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.7 in March, up from 47.6 in February, surpassing the market expectation of 48. This marks a slight easing of the manufacturing contraction, providing some support for the Euro.
Meanwhile, the Services PMI in the Eurozone declined to 50.4 in March from 50.6 in February, falling short of the anticipated 51 and marking a four-month low.
The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite increased slightly to 50.4 in March, from 50.2 in February, reflecting a modest improvement in overall business activity across the region.
In Germany, the region's largest economy, the manufacturing sector performed better than expected, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 48.3 in March, up from 46.5 in February and surpassing the expected 47.7.
This was the highest reading in 31 months, signaling a recovery in the industrial sector. On the other hand, the Services PMI in Germany fell to 50.2, down from 51.1 in February, hitting a four-month low and adding to concerns about the region's growth prospects.
Therefore, the mixed PMI data, with manufacturing showing recovery and services underperforming, may support the Euro but limit its upside, keeping the EUR/USD pair range-bound as investors await further economic signals.
US Economic Concerns and Geopolitical Developments Weigh on the Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains under pressure due to growing concerns over President Trump's trade policies, especially his approach to reciprocal tariffs.
However, the White House is revising its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 deadline, with reports suggesting some industry-specific tariffs may be dropped while new tariffs will be imposed on countries with strong trade ties to the US.
This move aims to address trade imbalances but has raised concerns that it could slow down global economic growth, particularly in the Eurozone, which is closely tied to US trade.
Moreover, the geopolitical tensions also played a role in market sentiment, with easing concerns following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh over the weekend.
The ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Ukraine war and President Trump’s calls for an end to the conflict have helped reduce some geopolitical risk, contributing to improved investor sentiment.
Therefore, the US dollar’s pressure from trade policy concerns and geopolitical tensions, alongside improved sentiment from the Ukraine talks, could lead to a weaker dollar, potentially supporting a higher EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading slightly lower at $1.08457, down 0.02% on the day, as the pair navigates a tight range ahead of key U.S. economic data later this week.
Despite the marginal pullback, the euro remains above the pivotal support at $1.08049—a level that continues to attract buying interest and has helped stabilize recent price action.
Technically, the 4-hour chart reveals that EUR/USD is caught between its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08802 and the pivot zone near $1.08049.
A clear move above the EMA could trigger fresh upside momentum toward immediate resistance at $1.08680, followed by $1.09177 and $1.09516.
These levels correspond to recent consolidation zones and would likely require increased volume to break decisively.
On the downside, should the pair slip below $1.08049, initial support rests at $1.07656, with deeper floors at $1.07214 and $1.06780. A breach below $1.07656 would indicate waning bullish control and potentially invite additional selling pressure.
As long as the pair holds above $1.08049, the near-term bias remains slightly bullish—but momentum is fragile and driven by upcoming data catalysts.
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