GOLD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) is battling to hold the $3,100 level as traders remain cautious ahead of key US economic data.
The yellow metal saw a sharp decline on Thursday, losing over 2.50% before recovering to close 0.65% lower at $3,115. Despite the rebound, gold remains under pressure as investors reassess their positions.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Report to Influence Gold and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
However, the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to set the tone for gold’s next move. Market forecasts range from 80,000 to 200,000 jobs, with a consensus at 135,000.
The data will be crucial in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations, with Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments likely to provide further guidance. Markets are now factoring in up to four rate cuts before the end of 2024.
Gold Surge Driven by Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Amid Rate Cut Expectations
Gold has gained nearly 18% this year, supported by economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks, Bloomberg reports. The CME FedWatch tool places the probability of a May rate cut at 33.2%, while June remains the most likely start for easing.
Traders are pricing in three to four cuts this year, fueled by concerns over slowing US economic growth. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Index has dropped to -2.84%, adding to fears of a downturn.
Stagflation Concerns Drive Gold's Appeal as a Safe-Haven Asset
On the other hand, the ongoing concerns about stagflation—where economic growth slows while inflation remains high—are boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Investors often turn to gold in uncertain economic conditions, making it a preferred choice during market volatility.
While short-term fluctuations may continue, gold’s long-term movement will largely depend on US economic trends, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and global geopolitical developments.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to trade within a rising channel, showing signs of stabilization after recent volatility. The current price of $3,103.86 reflects a modest rebound from a key intraday low, finding support just above the pivot point at $3,090.
With price now holding slightly above that level, bulls are attempting to reclaim control, though momentum remains cautious.
Immediate resistance is seen at $3,123, a level that aligns closely with the 50-period EMA at $3,121.96. A decisive break above this zone would expose $3,148 and $3,167, areas that previously capped upward movement.
On the downside, $3,087 and $3,066 represent the next supports, with a sharper decline potentially targeting the channel's lower trendline near $3,054.
The RSI is currently at 45.80, suggesting neutral momentum after a pullback from overbought territory.
This aligns with the recent correction, though the broader structure remains bullish as long as gold holds above the trendline and $3,066 support.
Technically, a buy signal is favored above $3,090, with a suggested take-profit at $3,123 and a protective stop-loss at $3,066.
A close above the $3,123 resistance would likely validate a continuation toward the $3,148–$3,167 zone. Until then, traders should watch for price action clarity near the 50 EMA to confirm trend strength.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold finds support above $3,090, holding within a rising channel.
- A break above $3,123 may target $3,148 and $3,167 resistance.
- Momentum remains cautious; watch RSI and 50 EMA for confirmation.
Gold continues to trade within a rising channel, showing signs of stabilization after recent volatility. The current price of $3,103.86 reflects a modest rebound from a key intraday low, finding support just above the pivot point at $3,090. With price now holding slightly above that level, bulls are attempting to reclaim control, though momentum remains cautious.
Immediate resistance is seen at $3,123, a level that aligns closely with the 50-period EMA at $3,121.96. A decisive break above this zone would expose $3,148 and $3,167, areas that previously capped upward movement. On the downside, $3,087 and $3,066 represent the next supports, with a sharper decline potentially targeting the channel's lower trendline near $3,054.
The RSI is currently at 45.80, suggesting neutral momentum after a pullback from overbought territory. This aligns with the recent correction, though the broader structure remains bullish as long as gold holds above the trendline and $3,066 support.
Technically, a buy signal is favored above $3,090, with a suggested take-profit at $3,123 and a protective stop-loss at $3,066. A close above the $3,123 resistance would likely validate a continuation toward the $3,148–$3,167 zone. Until then, traders should watch for price action clarity near the 50 EMA to confirm trend strength.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3090
Take Profit – 3123
Stop Loss – 3066
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3300/ -$2400
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$330/ -$240
GOLD Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is facing strong bearish pressure as it tumbles below the key $3,100 level during the U.S. trading session on Thursday.
The precious metal dropped over 1.35%, reaching $3,085 at the time of writing. This sharp decline comes as traders take profits, pushing gold below crucial support levels amid a broader market reaction to President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcement.
Trump’s Tariff Plan Fuels Market Uncertainty
As per the latest, Trump's surprising statement about imposing a 10% global base tariff on all imports into the U.S. has added new uncertainty to the financial markets.
These tariffs will be in place along with the existing ones, causing concern among global investors. This has particularly affected Asia, where gold producers saw some initial gains. Additionally, as of Thursday, a 54% tariff is now being applied to Chinese imports, further increasing trade tensions.
Despite the initial rise in gold prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, global markets are still assessing the full impact of Trump's announcement.
The new tariff plan has raised concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the stocks have dropped sharply, and bond yields are falling as investors move towards safer options like U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has weakened against major currencies.
Market Reaction to U.S. Economic Data and Fed Expectations
On the other hand, the economic data is also shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of an interest rate cut in May is standing at 21.5%, with a larger chance of a rate cut in June at 27.5%.
Hence, the pause in the Fed’s rate decisions appears increasingly likely, as traders begin to factor in the potential fallout from the tariff-induced economic slowdown.
Moreover, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has commented that tariffs could be lifted or removed if countries bring their production back to the U.S.
This has added more uncertainty to the situation, as markets are still unsure about the future direction of U.S. trade policy.
Strong Safe-Haven Demand for Gold Amid Market Uncertainty
Despite the recent drop in gold prices, the underlying demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. The broader market uncertainty, coupled with fears of an economic slowdown, has shifted flows into gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against instability.
Traders are closely monitoring the U.S. economic data for further clues, particularly the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the ISM Services PMI.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to consolidate within a rising parallel channel, with price action testing support near the channel’s lower boundary around $3,111.
This level also coincides with the key pivot point, providing a critical juncture for short-term market direction. Price is currently hovering just below the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is positioned at $3,128.34—acting as dynamic resistance in the current structure.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $3,144. A breakout above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum, exposing higher resistance targets at $3,148 and $3,167.
Beyond that, the next bullish target stands at $3,184, where the upper boundary of the channel may curb further gains. On the downside, a failure to hold $3,111 would likely invite fresh selling pressure, targeting $3,096 and $3,084 as next support zones.
The RSI is currently at 44.32, signaling weakening momentum after recently retreating from overbought territory.
The bearish divergence between price highs and RSI peaks suggests some fatigue among buyers. Still, the bullish channel remains valid, and traders are closely watching the $3,111 level as a potential re-entry point.
Bullish bias remains intact above $3,111. A long position from $3,111 with a target at $3,144 and stop loss at $3,096 offers a favorable risk-reward.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold trades within a rising channel, pivoting near $3,111 support
- RSI signals weakening momentum but no clear breakdown yet
- Break above $3,144 may expose $3,167 and channel top at $3,184
Gold continues to consolidate within a rising parallel channel, with price action testing support near the channel’s lower boundary around $3,111.
This level also coincides with the key pivot point, providing a critical juncture for short-term market direction. Price is currently hovering just below the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is positioned at $3,128.34—acting as dynamic resistance in the current structure.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $3,144. A breakout above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum, exposing higher resistance targets at $3,148 and $3,167.
Beyond that, the next bullish target stands at $3,184, where the upper boundary of the channel may curb further gains. On the downside, a failure to hold $3,111 would likely invite fresh selling pressure, targeting $3,096 and $3,084 as next support zones.
The RSI is currently at 44.32, signaling weakening momentum after recently retreating from overbought territory.
The bearish divergence between price highs and RSI peaks suggests some fatigue among buyers. Still, the bullish channel remains valid, and traders are closely watching the $3,111 level as a potential re-entry point.
Bullish bias remains intact above $3,111. A long position from $3,111 with a target at $3,144 and stop loss at $3,096 offers a favorable risk-reward.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3111
Take Profit – 3144
Stop Loss – 3096
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3300/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$330/ -$150
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold holds above the key $3,111 pivot, sustaining bullish bias.
- RSI recovery signals potential for a continuation move.
- Buy setup confirmed above $3,111 with target at $3,144.
Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining its broader uptrend, holding within a well-defined ascending channel. After a brief correction that saw prices dip to an intraday low of $3,112.21, the metal has rebounded and is currently trading near $3,125.00.
The bullish structure remains intact as long as gold sustains above the 50-period EMA at $3,097.88. The recent pullback found support just above the $3,100.00 handle—a level that aligns with both the lower band of the channel and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the late-March rally.
The pivot point sits at $3,112.21, a critical zone where buyers have returned repeatedly. Immediate resistance is seen at $3,144.00, followed by a stronger ceiling at $3,148.62.
A breakout above this area could open the path toward the next resistance at $3,165.66. On the downside, key support rests at $3,100.07, with additional cushions forming at $3,094.00 and $3,079.05.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55.86, recovering from oversold territory and suggesting renewed bullish momentum, although not yet signaling overbought conditions.
The 50 EMA at $3,097.88 is sloping upward, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias, while price action remains comfortably above the psychological support at $3,100.
As long as XAU/USD holds above $3,111.00, the risk remains tilted to the upside. Traders may consider long positions above this level with a target at $3,144.00 and a protective stop at $3,094.00. Failure to hold above $3,100.00, however, could trigger a broader correction.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3111
Take Profit – 3144
Stop Loss – 3094
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3300/ -$1700
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$330/ -$170
GOLD Price Analysis – April 02, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) remains stable above $3,130 on Wednesday after retreating from a record high of $3,149. However, the precious metal experienced a reversal move in the previous session as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of key economic events.
Another factor that has been supporting the Gold price is the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, which may weaken the dollar's safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to shift towards gold as a hedge.
Tariff Uncertainty and Employment Data Drive Market Volatility and Gold Price Movements
The global market sentiment has been sluggish as investors closely monitor the White House, with former U.S. President Donald Trump set to announce new reciprocal tariffs. The lack of clarity on the scale and targets of these levies has fueled market speculation, contributing to increased volatility.
Hence, the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs could lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario for Gold, resulting in short-term corrections as market participants adjust positions after the announcement.
On the other hand, traders are also eyeing the ADP private employment report, expected to show a gain of 105,000 jobs in March, up from 77,000 in February. Although the ADP data does not always align with the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, it remains a key indicator of labor market health and can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Federal Reserve's Rate Plans and Strong Investor Demand Support Gold Prices
On the U.S. side, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans are important for Gold prices. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 15.8% chance of a rate cut in May, and a 25.6% chance in June. Generally, the higher interest rates can put pressure on Gold prices, but global uncertainties are still pushing up demand for Gold as a safe investment.
Moreover, investor interest in Gold remains strong, as evidenced by record inflows into China’s Huaan Yifu Gold ETF. The fund received 1.4 billion Yuan ($194 million) on Monday, followed by another 1 billion Yuan on Tuesday, reinforcing Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining its broader uptrend, holding within a well-defined ascending channel. After a brief correction that saw prices dip to an intraday low of $3,112.21, the metal has rebounded and is currently trading near $3,125.00.
The bullish structure remains intact as long as gold sustains above the 50-period EMA at $3,097.88. The recent pullback found support just above the $3,100.00 handle—a level that aligns with both the lower band of the channel and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the late-March rally.
The pivot point sits at $3,112.21, a critical zone where buyers have returned repeatedly. Immediate resistance is seen at $3,144.00, followed by a stronger ceiling at $3,148.62.
A breakout above this area could open the path toward the next resistance at $3,165.66. On the downside, key support rests at $3,100.07, with additional cushions forming at $3,094.00 and $3,079.05.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55.86, recovering from oversold territory and suggesting renewed bullish momentum, although not yet signaling overbought conditions.
The 50 EMA at $3,097.88 is sloping upward, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias, while price action remains comfortably above the psychological support at $3,100.
As long as XAU/USD holds above $3,111.00, the risk remains tilted to the upside. Traders may consider long positions above this level with a target at $3,144.00 and a protective stop at $3,094.00. Failure to hold above $3,100.00, however, could trigger a broader correction.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold remains inside a strong ascending channel, with bullish bias intact above $3,127.
- RSI cooling from highs suggests consolidation, not reversal.
- A break above $3,148 may trigger upside toward $3,165 and $3,185.
Gold prices remain firmly bid, holding within a well-defined ascending channel that has underpinned the bullish trend since March 25.
The metal continues to find strong dip-buying interest, with the recent pullback stalling above the $3,127 pivot point—coinciding with the lower boundary of the bullish channel and offering technical validation for near-term support.
Despite a minor correction from intraday highs around $3,148, gold bulls appear to be defending the structure, and the broader uptrend remains intact barring a breakdown below $3,110.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to 58.93 from overbought territory, signaling a pause in momentum rather than a trend reversal.
Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA at $3,106.56 continues to track closely below price, reinforcing the strength of the underlying trend and providing dynamic support.
A confirmed move above $3,148 could open the door toward $3,165 and potentially challenge the $3,185 level, where previous supply zones could re-emerge.
Conversely, a break below $3,127 may signal further profit-taking, exposing $3,110 and $3,099 as next downside targets.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3127
Take Profit – 3160
Stop Loss – 3110
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3300/ -$1700
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$330/ -$170
GOLD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices extended their meteoric rise on Tuesday, hitting a fresh record above $3,100 per ounce. The move comes ahead of the April 2 unveiling of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, which traders expect to impact global trade flows and risk sentiment.
The surge in gold is also supported by broader macro drivers: softening U.S. growth data, geopolitical instability, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. CME FedWatch now prices in 63 basis points of cuts by year-end, adding further momentum to bullion.
Fundamentals Support Gold’s Bullish Outlook
Gold’s rally is underpinned by more than short-term policy speculation. The metal posted its strongest quarterly performance since 1986, fueled by:
Sustained central bank gold purchases, especially from emerging markets
Rebounding demand for gold-backed ETFs
Geopolitical risks spanning both Europe and the Middle East
A weakening U.S. dollar and stabilizing Treasury yields
Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said the April 2 tariff event may be just the beginning: “Automobile tariffs on April 3 could extend uncertainty further. Unless macro conditions improve significantly, gold buyers are likely to remain active on any pullbacks.”
With global growth concerns still unresolved, investor appetite for gold appears resilient.
What’s Next: $3,200 in Sight?
Gold's next technical target lies near $3,200, a level many traders are eyeing if current momentum holds. On the downside, support lies near the previous breakout zone around $3,085.
Upcoming U.S. economic releases could prove pivotal. Tuesday's job openings data and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report may either reinforce or challenge the Fed’s dovish tilt. Any surprises could spark short-term volatility across commodities and FX markets.
Until then, the bullish case for gold remains intact—backed by macro risk, monetary policy shifts, and continued investor demand.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices remain firmly bid, holding within a well-defined ascending channel that has underpinned the bullish trend since March 25.
The metal continues to find strong dip-buying interest, with the recent pullback stalling above the $3,127 pivot point—coinciding with the lower boundary of the bullish channel and offering technical validation for near-term support.
Despite a minor correction from intraday highs around $3,148, gold bulls appear to be defending the structure, and the broader uptrend remains intact barring a breakdown below $3,110.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to 58.93 from overbought territory, signaling a pause in momentum rather than a trend reversal.
Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA at $3,106.56 continues to track closely below price, reinforcing the strength of the underlying trend and providing dynamic support.
A confirmed move above $3,148 could open the door toward $3,165 and potentially challenge the $3,185 level, where previous supply zones could re-emerge.
Conversely, a break below $3,127 may signal further profit-taking, exposing $3,110 and $3,099 as next downside targets.
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GOLD Price Analysis – March 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices surged to a new all-time high of $3,086 per ounce in early Monday trading in Asia, fueled by mounting geopolitical uncertainty and growing confidence in a dovish Federal Reserve. The move builds on last week’s momentum, with spot gold decisively breaking through $3,070 resistance, and now setting its sights on the next key target at $3,105.
The latest leg of the rally came in response to Friday’s PCE Price Index, which rose 0.4% month-over-month, slightly ahead of the 0.3% forecast.
While the inflation reading was marginally hotter, analysts say it’s unlikely to shift the Fed’s current trajectory. Markets are now pricing in roughly 63 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with the first cut potentially arriving as early as July.
“Safe-haven demand tied to trade uncertainty and macro risks continues to support gold,” said Peter Grant of Zaner Metals, noting that softening global growth signals are reinforcing the metal’s upward bias.
Traders Brace for High-Impact U.S. Data
This week’s macro calendar is packed with key data releases that could shape the Fed’s rate path—and by extension, gold’s trajectory. Investors will be watching closely for signs of economic softening or labor market weakness, which could strengthen the case for rate cuts and deepen demand for safe-haven assets.
Key U.S. Events to Watch This Week:
Tuesday:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Est. 49.6)
JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday:
ADP Non-Farm Employment (Est. 118K)
Thursday:
Weekly Unemployment Claims
ISM Services PMI
Friday:
Non-Farm Payrolls (Est. 139K)
Unemployment Rate (Est. 4.1%)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks
Outlook: Bullish Bias Remains Intact
While inflation remains sticky, slowing economic momentum and geopolitical tensions are tipping investor sentiment toward risk aversion. With gold already breaking to new highs, a soft jobs report or disappointing manufacturing data this week could accelerate the rally toward $3,105 and beyond.
The Fed’s policy tone remains the linchpin. Should upcoming data support a July rate cut narrative, gold’s bullish run may still have room to extend—especially with real yields edging lower and central banks continuing to accumulate gold reserves.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to extend its bullish trajectory, with XAU/USD trading at $3,085.34 after breaking above the short-term pivot at $3,077.
The move confirms bullish continuation within a well-established ascending channel, as buyers maintain control despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties.
The recent breakout is supported by favorable momentum and strong trend structure, reinforcing the case for additional upside toward $3,105 and potentially $3,118.82.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average, currently at $3,037.63, has provided consistent dynamic support, aligning with the channel's lower boundary.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 66.95, suggesting momentum remains healthy without tipping into extreme overbought territory.
A potential trade setup emerges with a buy entry above $3,077, targeting $3,105 as the primary resistance, with a stop loss set at $3,065. This configuration offers a compelling risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:2.3.
As long as the price holds above $3,070, the bias remains firmly bullish. However, any drop below the $3,065 support could trigger a short-term correction toward $3,055 and possibly $3,037.
This technical structure continues to favor the bulls, supported by rising moving averages, solid channel support, and a well-behaved RSI.
Traders should monitor price action closely near the $3,105 resistance, as a break above this level could open the door to fresh highs toward $3,118.82.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold breaks above $3,077, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
- RSI at 66.95 suggests room for further upside without overextension.
- Channel support and SMA alignment keep the bias bullish unless $3,065 fails.
Gold continues to extend its bullish trajectory, with XAU/USD trading at $3,085.34 after breaking above the short-term pivot at $3,077.
The move confirms bullish continuation within a well-established ascending channel, as buyers maintain control despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties.
The recent breakout is supported by favorable momentum and strong trend structure, reinforcing the case for additional upside toward $3,105 and potentially $3,118.82.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average, currently at $3,037.63, has provided consistent dynamic support, aligning with the channel's lower boundary.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 66.95, suggesting momentum remains healthy without tipping into extreme overbought territory.
A potential trade setup emerges with a buy entry above $3,077, targeting $3,105 as the primary resistance, with a stop loss set at $3,065. This configuration offers a compelling risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:2.3.
As long as the price holds above $3,070, the bias remains firmly bullish. However, any drop below the $3,065 support could trigger a short-term correction toward $3,055 and possibly $3,037.
This technical structure continues to favor the bulls, supported by rising moving averages, solid channel support, and a well-behaved RSI.
Traders should monitor price action closely near the $3,105 resistance, as a break above this level could open the door to fresh highs toward $3,118.82.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3077
Take Profit – 3105
Stop Loss – 3065
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2800/ -$1200
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$280/ -$120