GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold remains supported around $2,610, with $2,633 acting as key resistance.
- RSI at 53 reflects neutral momentum, suggesting potential consolidation.
- A break above $2,633 targets $2,651, while failure to hold $2,610 risks a decline to $2,573.
Gold prices have maintained upward momentum, trading at $2,620.17, bolstered by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
The pivot point lies at $2,609.49, which has been a critical level for determining short-term direction. Immediate resistance is seen at $2,633.23, followed by $2,651.64 and $2,670.44, with higher targets forming in case of continued bullish pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,588.03, with further key support levels at $2,573.39 and $2,556.29.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $2,615.77, reinforcing the current support level near $2,610. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, indicating a neutral market stance, with a slight bullish bias.
A break above $2,633.23 would open the door to further gains, potentially targeting the next resistance at $2,651.64. Conversely, if gold fails to hold above $2,610, it could test lower support levels, with $2,588.03 acting as a critical point of defense.
Traders should remain cautious with thin holiday liquidity, as it can amplify market moves. A sustained breach above $2,610 is likely to sustain upward momentum, while a failure to maintain support could lead to a retracement toward lower levels.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2610
Take Profit – 2633
Stop Loss – 2595
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2300/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$230/ -$150
GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 24, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) has managed to defy the strong US dollar, maintaining its upward trend around the 2,618 level on the day.
This resilience is largely due to rising geopolitical tensions and concerns about a potential trade war, which have pushed investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset.
In addition, recent statements from the Federal Reserve indicating a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025 have bolstered the US dollar, keeping it near a two-year high.
This strengthening of the dollar is likely to support US bond yields, which in turn could limit further upside for gold.
Looking ahead, gold is supported by external uncertainties, the continued strength of the US dollar and the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts may prevent significant gains for gold in the short term.
Investors should stay alert to shifts in both the geopolitical landscape and US monetary policy, as these will play a key role in determining gold's next move.
Mixed Economic Outlook and Strong US Dollar Weigh on Gold's Upside Potential
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been flashing green after a sharp sell-off, following signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that fewer interest rate cuts are expected next year.
This comes amid a slowdown in the disinflation process. However, the latest soft US PCE data have eased inflation concerns, creating a mixed outlook for the economy.
Markets now expect a nearly 93% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% in January.
Despite this, US Durable Goods Orders for November fell more than expected, dropping by 1.1%, much worse than the projected 0.4% decline.
Meanwhile, the US Consumer Confidence Index also dropped in December, falling by 8.1 points to 104.7, showing that optimism among households has weakened.
Concerns over President-elect Trump’s economic policies, particularly the potential rise in living costs due to tariffs, have contributed to this dip.
Furthermore, the Fed’s projections suggest fewer rate cuts in 2025, reflecting caution due to ongoing inflation pressures.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated that rates should remain steady until inflation shows signs of returning to the 2% target.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also revised his 2025 rate cut projection, now expecting fewer reductions.
Therefore, the mixed economic outlook, with fewer rate cuts expected and concerns over inflation, may limit gold's upside potential. A strong US dollar and steady interest rates reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, potentially capping its price growth.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Investors Towards Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset
On the geopolitical front, tensions remain high as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that sirens were sounded in central and southern Israel after intercepting a projectile fired from Yemen.
This comes as Israeli forces continue their attacks in the northern Gaza region, which has been under siege. The situation in Gaza remains critical, with ongoing military actions causing widespread concern.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russian forces have captured two villages and are making steady progress in the Donetsk area. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, with Russia strengthening its hold on key regions. In response to the situation,
US President-elect Donald Trump has urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to focus on securing peace and stability, reflecting ongoing international efforts to address the war’s impact. These developments add further uncertainty to global markets, as geopolitical tensions remain a major concern.
Hence, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Israel and Ukraine could drive more investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. As conflicts escalate, the demand for gold may increase, potentially pushing its price higher as investors seek stability amidst uncertainty.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices have maintained upward momentum, trading at $2,620.17, bolstered by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
The pivot point lies at $2,609.49, which has been a critical level for determining short-term direction. Immediate resistance is seen at $2,633.23, followed by $2,651.64 and $2,670.44, with higher targets forming in case of continued bullish pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,588.03, with further key support levels at $2,573.39 and $2,556.29.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $2,615.77, reinforcing the current support level near $2,610. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, indicating a neutral market stance, with a slight bullish bias.
A break above $2,633.23 would open the door to further gains, potentially targeting the next resistance at $2,651.64. Conversely, if gold fails to hold above $2,610, it could test lower support levels, with $2,588.03 acting as a critical point of defense.
Traders should remain cautious with thin holiday liquidity, as it can amplify market moves. A sustained breach above $2,610 is likely to sustain upward momentum, while a failure to maintain support could lead to a retracement toward lower levels.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 23, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have had a quiet start to the week, moving slowly around $2,627, with a trading range between $2,617.59 and $2,629.30. This sluggishness comes as the US Dollar (USD) remains strong, just below its two-year peak, putting pressure on gold.
At the same time, global geopolitical uncertainties, like the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
The Federal Reserve's recent stance, signaling slower rate cuts in 2025, has kept US Treasury yields high, which dampens gold’s potential for major gains. On top of that, a positive mood in global stock markets is capping any significant rise in gold prices.
As the week progresses, traders are closely watching the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, hoping it will offer more clarity on the gold market’s short-term direction.
US Dollar Weakens on Softer Inflation Data, Supporting Gold Prices Amid Stable Economic Growth
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar (USD) remain subdued after the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data on Friday.
The softer inflation numbers for November have raised expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue easing its policies in 2025.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a more than 90% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in January.
The core PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 2.9%.
Monthly core inflation also grew by just 0.1%, less than the anticipated 0.2%, signaling a slowdown in inflationary pressures.
In addition to the PCE data, other economic indicators also had an impact. The US GDP grew by 3.1% in the third quarter, beating expectations and showing stronger-than-expected economic growth.
Initial Jobless Claims fell to 220,000, better than the forecast of 230,000, indicating a stable labor market.
Despite these positive figures, inflation remains a key concern, with the yearly change in the PCE Price Index rising to 2.4%.
The Fed's recent signal to slow down rate cuts in 2025 caused US Treasury yields to reach their highest level in over six months, adding pressure to the USD.
Therefore, the softer inflation data and the Fed’s likely decision to keep rates unchanged support gold prices by reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes.
However, higher Treasury yields and stable economic growth may limit gold’s potential for significant gains.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,630.70, up 0.27% as it consolidates gains following a steady recovery. The price action remains supported by the $2,620.64 pivot point, while the 50 EMA at $2,622.84 provides dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
The immediate resistance lies at $2,642.56, aligning with the first target for short-term buyers. A breakout above this level could propel gold toward the next resistance at $2,658.33, with a further push targeting $2,674.87.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $2,607.53, with additional layers at $2,593.83 and $2,583.93 providing a safety net for bulls.
The RSI at 60 indicates moderate bullish momentum, but the market requires a decisive move above $2,642.56 to maintain the uptrend.
The broader outlook is cautiously optimistic as geopolitical risks and USD fluctuations continue to shape market sentiment.
Traders are eyeing the upcoming resistance zones, as breaking through these levels could spark accelerated gains.
On the flip side, a breach below $2,620.64 may trigger a pullback, with downside risks increasing if prices dip below the $2,607.53 support.
Gold's technical setup favors buying opportunities above $2,626, with a take-profit target of $2,642 and a stop-loss at $2,614.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate Resistance: $2,642.56; Next targets: $2,658.33, $2,674.87.
- Immediate Support: $2,607.53; Key levels below: $2,593.83, $2,583.93.
- RSI at 60 and 50 EMA at $2,622.84 signal bullish momentum.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,630.70, up 0.27% as it consolidates gains following a steady recovery. The price action remains supported by the $2,620.64 pivot point, while the 50 EMA at $2,622.84 provides dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
The immediate resistance lies at $2,642.56, aligning with the first target for short-term buyers. A breakout above this level could propel gold toward the next resistance at $2,658.33, with a further push targeting $2,674.87.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $2,607.53, with additional layers at $2,593.83 and $2,583.93 providing a safety net for bulls.
The RSI at 60 indicates moderate bullish momentum, but the market requires a decisive move above $2,642.56 to maintain the uptrend.
The broader outlook is cautiously optimistic as geopolitical risks and USD fluctuations continue to shape market sentiment.
Traders are eyeing the upcoming resistance zones, as breaking through these levels could spark accelerated gains.
On the flip side, a breach below $2,620.64 may trigger a pullback, with downside risks increasing if prices dip below the $2,607.53 support.
Gold's technical setup favors buying opportunities above $2,626, with a take-profit target of $2,642 and a stop-loss at $2,614.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2626
Take Profit – 2642
Stop Loss – 2614
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1600/ -$1200
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$160/ -$120
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold faces immediate resistance at $2,626.76; break above could target $2,640.36.
- Support levels at $2,583.95 and $2,568.47 are key for downside protection.
- RSI at 50 signals neutrality, while the 50 EMA at $2,615.16 caps upward momentum.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,604.19, up 0.37% on the day, as the metal consolidates above the $2,596.10 pivot point. Despite the modest gains, gold faces immediate resistance at $2,626.76, with further hurdles at $2,640.36.
A sustained break above these levels could open the door for bullish momentum, targeting new highs in the near term. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,583.95, followed by stronger levels at $2,568.47 and $2,555.24.
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The RSI is neutral at 50, suggesting that gold is neither overbought nor oversold. However, the 50 EMA at $2,615.16 indicates near-term bearish pressure, as the price remains below this key moving average. To regain bullish momentum, gold must clear the $2,613 pivot point and stay above the 50 EMA.
The current setup suggests a cautious trading strategy. Traders may look to buy near $2,596 with a stop-loss at $2,584 and a take-profit target of $2,613. A break above $2,626 could justify higher targets, while failure to hold $2,583 may lead to sharper declines.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 2596
Take Profit – 2613
Stop Loss – 2584
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1700/ -$1200
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$170/ -$120
GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 20, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, gold (XAU/USD) has managed to maintain its upward momentum, holding steady around the 2,605 level and even reaching an intra-day high of 2,607.
This bullish trend can largely be attributed to a slight dip in the US dollar, which lost some ground due to a modest pullback in US Treasury bond yields.
Meanwhile, the Fed's signals that it plans to slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025 are likely to provide support for US bond yields and the dollar. Additionally, the prevailing risk-off sentiment has kept gold in demand as a safe-haven asset, further boosting its price.
Looking ahead, traders seem cautious to place strong positions ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release.
This key inflation report will impact USD price and could create short-term opportunities in the gold.
Impact of Fed's Hawkish Stance and Economic Uncertainties on Gold
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been holding onto its weekly gains, reaching a two-year high.
This is largely due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish signal that it plans to slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, which is supporting the USD. However, this is acting as a headwind for gold.
At the same time, investors are feeling uncertain due to ongoing geopolitical risks, fears of a trade war, and the threat of a US government shutdown.
This is putting pressure on the stock market and driving more demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Traders are also cautious ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
In addition, the US Treasury bond yields have pulled back from a multi-month high, limiting the USD’s rally.
Positive economic data, like the 3.1% annual GDP growth for the third quarter and a drop in jobless claims, are backing the Fed's stance.
These developments suggest that the Fed will continue with its hawkish approach, which supports the US dollar and bond yields.
However, this outlook also keeps pressure on gold, as the precious metal offers no yield. Gold traders are waiting for further clues from the PCE data before making significant moves.
Therefore, the US dollar's strength, driven by the Fed's hawkish stance and rising bond yields, is limiting gold's upward movement.
In the meantime, the ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties are supporting gold's safe-haven demand, but traders remain cautious ahead of key inflation data.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,604.19, up 0.37% on the day, as the metal consolidates above the $2,596.10 pivot point. Despite the modest gains, gold faces immediate resistance at $2,626.76, with further hurdles at $2,640.36.
A sustained break above these levels could open the door for bullish momentum, targeting new highs in the near term. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,583.95, followed by stronger levels at $2,568.47 and $2,555.24.
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The RSI is neutral at 50, suggesting that gold is neither overbought nor oversold.
However, the 50 EMA at $2,615.16 indicates near-term bearish pressure, as the price remains below this key moving average. To regain bullish momentum, gold must clear the $2,613 pivot point and stay above the 50 EMA.
The current setup suggests a cautious trading strategy. Traders may look to buy near $2,596 with a stop-loss at $2,584 and a take-profit target of $2,613. A break above $2,626 could justify higher targets, while failure to hold $2,583 may lead to sharper declines.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) sustains its upward trend, rebounding strongly from a one-month low and reaching around $2,622 on Thursday’s European session.
However, the rally comes as market sentiment turns sour after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone on Wednesday.
Apart from this, the growing geopolitical tensions and trade war fears are pushing investors towards the safety of gold, driving its appeal as a haven asset.
At the same time, the US dollar remains steady, consolidating its post-FOMC gains at a two-year high. Notably, the Fed’s signal to slow the pace of interest rate cuts is boosting US Treasury yields, offering support to the USD. Despite these headwinds, gold remains an attractive choice for investors amid rising uncertainty.
Impact of US Economic Data, Fed's Cautious Approach, and Global Uncertainties on Gold
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remains strong after the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a cautious 25-basis point rate cut, bringing rates to 4.25%-4.50%, a two-year low.
The Fed’s latest projections, known as the ‘dot-plot,’ now show only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four predicted earlier.
During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed remains cautious about further rate cuts as inflation stays above the 2% target.
Traders are now focusing on upcoming US data, including Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and the final Q3 GDP reading, which could influence the USD’s momentum.
Recent US economic data has been mixed. November Retail Sales rose 0.7%, exceeding the previous 0.5% growth, while the Retail Sales Control Group saw a slight recovery of 0.4%.
The S&P Global US Composite PMI showed improvement, rising to 56.6 in December from 54.9 earlier, driven by stronger services activity.
However, manufacturing data was less optimistic, with the PMI falling to 48.3 from 49.7, signaling continued contraction in the sector.
These indicators paint a picture of resilience in some areas of the economy but challenges in others, particularly in manufacturing.
On the flip side, China’s economy remains under pressure. Authorities plan to target 5% growth in 2025, the same as this year, amid record net outflows of $45.7 billion from its capital markets in November.
While China focuses on boosting domestic consumption, the lack of concrete fiscal support and looming US tariffs are dampening optimism.
The strong US Dollar, mixed economic data, and Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts weigh on gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Meanwhile, global uncertainties like China's economic struggles and geopolitical risks support gold as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,609.76, gaining 0.94% in today’s session. Despite the uptick, the metal remains below its pivot point at $2,616.77, indicating lingering bearish pressure.
The immediate resistance lies at $2,636.57, followed by stronger hurdles at $2,664.90 and $2,690.55. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,576.85, with subsequent supports at $2,559.53 and $2,537.25.
Technical indicators highlight mixed sentiment. The RSI at 35 reflects oversold conditions, suggesting limited downside in the near term. However, the 50 EMA at $2,665.76 positions gold below this critical moving average, signaling that bearish momentum is still dominant.
From a technical perspective, a failure to reclaim the pivot point at $2,616.77 could encourage sellers, pushing gold toward its immediate support at $2,576.85.
A break below this level would expose gold to deeper corrections toward $2,559.53 and $2,537.25. Conversely, a successful move above the pivot could trigger buying interest, targeting $2,636.57 and beyond.
Traders may look for opportunities to sell below $2,620, with potential profit-taking near $2,595 and a stop-loss set at $2,635.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate Resistance: $2,636.57; support at $2,576.85 could be tested.
- RSI Oversold: At 35, indicating limited downside but weak bullish recovery.
- 50 EMA: Gold remains below $2,665.76, confirming bearish momentum.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,609.76, gaining 0.94% in today’s session. Despite the uptick, the metal remains below its pivot point at $2,616.77, indicating lingering bearish pressure.
The immediate resistance lies at $2,636.57, followed by stronger hurdles at $2,664.90 and $2,690.55. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,576.85, with subsequent supports at $2,559.53 and $2,537.25.
Technical indicators highlight mixed sentiment. The RSI at 35 reflects oversold conditions, suggesting limited downside in the near term. However, the 50 EMA at $2,665.76 positions gold below this critical moving average, signaling that bearish momentum is still dominant.
From a technical perspective, a failure to reclaim the pivot point at $2,616.77 could encourage sellers, pushing gold toward its immediate support at $2,576.85.
A break below this level would expose gold to deeper corrections toward $2,559.53 and $2,537.25. Conversely, a successful move above the pivot could trigger buying interest, targeting $2,636.57 and beyond.
Traders may look for opportunities to sell below $2,620, with potential profit-taking near $2,595 and a stop-loss set at $2,635.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2620
Take Profit – 2595
Stop Loss – 2635
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$150
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold remains bearish below $2,654, with RSI at 41 confirming weak momentum.
- Key resistance lies at $2,672.93, while immediate support is at $2,634.28.
- Entry for short positions below $2,654 targets $2,634, with a stop at $2,666.
Gold prices are trading at $2,647.27, up 0.03%, as the market shows tentative upward movement within a bearish framework.
The key pivot point at $2,654.36 serves as a critical juncture for near-term direction. The 50 EMA at $2,667.06 aligns closely with resistance, reinforcing selling pressure at higher levels.
Immediate resistance is noted at $2,672.93, followed by $2,690.55 and $2,704.46 for further upside tests if momentum shifts.
On the downside, gold is supported initially at $2,634.28, with further levels of $2,617.80 and $2,601.58 offering potential targets for bears.
The RSI at 41 signals bearish momentum but remains neutral enough to allow for a brief recovery before resuming downside pressure.
Traders are watching for a break below the pivot point to confirm bearish dominance, with the suggested entry price for short positions at $2,654, targeting $2,634, while keeping a stop loss at $2,666.
Conversely, sustained movement above $2,672.93 could shift sentiment toward buyers. However, the current setup suggests sellers remain in control below the pivot and 50 EMA.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2654
Take Profit – 2634
Stop Loss – 2666
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1200
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$120
GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 18, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) are still struggling to break free from their downward trend, lingering around the $2,644 level, with an intraday low of $2,642.
The main reason for this drop seems to be growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a more cautious stance on cutting interest rates.
As a result, US Treasury bond yields have strengthened, which boosts the US Dollar (USD) and makes gold less attractive. This is because gold, being a non-yielding asset, tends to lose its appeal when bond yields rise and the dollar strengthens.
Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Expectations on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains strong due to market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are almost fully expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter point in their December meeting.
Traders will also be paying close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and the Summary of Economic Projections (dot-plot) after the meeting, which could offer insights into the Fed’s future plans.
On the data front, the US Census Bureau reported a 0.7% increase in retail sales for November, beating the expected 0.5% rise. The Retail Sales Control Group also grew by 0.4%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline previously.
Additionally, the S&P Global Composite PMI for December rose to 56.6 from 54.9, showing stronger economic activity. The Services PMI also improved to 58.5 from 56.1, while the Manufacturing PMI declined slightly to 48.3 from 49.7.
Therefore, the stronger US dollar and mixed economic data, along with expectations of a Fed rate cut, could limit gold's appeal. Higher interest rates and a stronger dollar reduce demand for gold, which doesn't offer yields like bonds or the dollar.
Impact of China’s Economic Outlook and Policy Shifts on Gold Demand
On the other side, China plans to target around 5% economic growth for 2025, the same goal as this year, which is expected to be met. This decision came after a meeting of top Chinese officials at the Central Economic Work Conference.
However, there are concerns about the country's economic performance, as China’s foreign exchange regulator, SAFE, revealed a net outflow of $45.7 billion from China’s capital markets in November.
This was due to a large deficit in cross-border portfolio investments, with $188.9 billion in receipts and $234.6 billion in payments, marking the largest monthly deficit for this category.
In addition, China’s authorities, led by President Xi Jinping, plan to increase the fiscal deficit target for next year, focusing more on boosting consumption to support the economy. This shift in policy comes amid the threat of 10% US tariffs on Chinese exports.
On the data front, China’s retail sales grew by 3.0% year-on-year in November, missing expectations of 4.6%, while industrial production rose by 5.4%, slightly exceeding the 5.3% forecast.
Therefore, China's economic challenges and policy shifts, along with trade tensions, could boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are trading at $2,647.27, up 0.03%, as the market shows tentative upward movement within a bearish framework.
The key pivot point at $2,654.36 serves as a critical juncture for near-term direction. The 50 EMA at $2,667.06 aligns closely with resistance, reinforcing selling pressure at higher levels.
Immediate resistance is noted at $2,672.93, followed by $2,690.55 and $2,704.46 for further upside tests if momentum shifts.
On the downside, gold is supported initially at $2,634.28, with further levels of $2,617.80 and $2,601.58 offering potential targets for bears.
The RSI at 41 signals bearish momentum but remains neutral enough to allow for a brief recovery before resuming downside pressure.
Traders are watching for a break below the pivot point to confirm bearish dominance, with the suggested entry price for short positions at $2,654, targeting $2,634, while keeping a stop loss at $2,666.
Conversely, sustained movement above $2,672.93 could shift sentiment toward buyers. However, the current setup suggests sellers remain in control below the pivot and 50 EMA.
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