AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its bullish trend and remained well-bid around the 0.6361 level, hitting an intra-day high of 0.6378. This continued strength was driven by a mix of factors, including positive global trade sentiment and a weakening US Dollar. The boost came after US President Donald Trump exempted certain technology products from new tariffs, which lifted global risk sentiment and supported the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD Boosted by Positive Trade Developments and China’s Economic Growth
Moreover, President Trump’s decision to exempt key technology products like smartphones, computers, semiconductors, and solar panels from tariffs sent a positive signal to global markets.
These products, mainly produced in China, are important for Australia’s trade, as China is its largest trading partner and a major buyer of its commodities.
This development supported the AUD, as markets saw it as a step toward easing trade tensions between the US and China, which is seen as positive for global trade stability.
In addition to this, China’s strong trade performance, with exports rising 13.5% year-over-year in March, boosted optimism.
Despite global uncertainties, China’s trade surplus exceeded expectations, improving the global growth outlook and further supporting the AUD.
US Dollar Weakness Amid Economic Concerns and Stagflation Risks
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar faced downward pressure, especially after the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached its lowest level since 2022. The DXY hovered around 99.90 as investors reacted to growing signs of stagflation risks in the US economy.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments added to concerns about the Fed’s ability to achieve its 2% inflation target, dampening market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts. This uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy further weakened the USD.
In addition, US economic data presented a mixed picture. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight easing in inflation, while jobless claims ticked up to 223,000.
On the other hand, the University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 50.8, signaling deteriorating consumer confidence, which further added to the negative sentiment surrounding the USD.
Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cautious Outlook and Market Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a cautious approach on future rate decisions, as shown in the minutes from its March 31–April 1 meeting.
The RBA highlighted global uncertainties, including trade tensions, and noted both risks to Australia’s economy and inflation. Although the RBA kept interest rates unchanged in April, markets are now expecting a 25-basis point rate cut in May, with further cuts likely later in the year.
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to about 4.33%, indicating lower inflation expectations. The RBA’s cautious tone, along with easing core inflation, fueled speculation that the central bank might adopt a more supportive policy in the near future.
Despite the RBA's cautious stance, the AUD has been rising. This could be due to positive global trade sentiment, particularly the easing of US-China tensions, and strong Chinese trade data, which boost Australia's trade prospects and support the AUD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is encountering firm resistance near the $0.6391 level, where a potential triple top formation is taking shape. This technical pattern, which indicates repeated failure to move higher, suggests that bullish momentum may be weakening.
Price action has tested this area multiple times over the past few weeks, and the most recent approach was met with renewed selling interest.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is trending higher and currently sits around $0.6218, showing that the short-term structure has improved since the early April low.
However, with the pair approaching a historically strong resistance area, traders may start considering pullback scenarios — particularly if price slips below the $0.6391 neckline of the pattern.
Momentum indicators are signaling caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.8, just below overbought levels. A decline below the 60 zone could confirm bearish divergence and further support the case for a short-term reversal.
A break below the $0.6391 threshold would shift the focus to $0.6277 as the next target, with potential to extend toward $0.6218 — close to the SMA and previous support.
Unless AUD/USD manages a clean breakout above $0.6444 — invalidating the triple top — the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside in the near term.
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