AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its downward slide, holding steady around the 0.6360 level. This decline followed disappointing Australian employment data. The unemployment rate for March rose to 4.1%, slightly better than the expected 4.2%.
However, the Employment Change came in at 32.2K, falling short of the forecasted 40K. This weaker employment data added pressure on the Australian Dollar, resulting in negative market sentiment.
AUD Struggles Amid Weak Labor Market and Global Uncertainty
Despite the poor labor market data, the Australian Dollar found some support from improved global risk sentiment. The AUD gained a boost after US President Donald Trump announced exemptions for key tech products, such as smartphones, semiconductors, and solar cells, from proposed tariffs.
Since China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, would benefit from these exemptions, there was some optimism for Australian exports. However, uncertainty around US trade policy still lingers, as the Trump administration is considering new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, keeping traders on edge.
Back in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shown uncertainty about when the next interest rate change might occur. In their latest policy meeting minutes, they mentioned that May could be a good time to review monetary policy, though the market is expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Some even predict there could be more cuts later in the year. Traders are now awaiting the upcoming employment report, which could provide crucial insights into the job market and influence the RBA's next move.
US Dollar Rebounds, Pressures AUD/USD
On the other side, the US Dollar has been on a strong rebound, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbing to 99.60. This rise in the greenback is supported by solid US retail sales, which increased by 1.4% in March, beating both the previous month’s growth and market expectations.
Moreover, comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggest that the Federal Reserve still has a long road ahead to hit its 2% inflation target, reducing expectations for imminent rate cuts. As the US economy shows resilience, the stronger US Dollar continues to weigh on the AUD/USD pair.
Looking ahead, the market is also eyeing key US economic data later this week, including Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Initial Jobless Claims, which could provide further direction for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed a dip in inflation to 2.4% year-over-year in March, below market expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on future rate cuts.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is slipping lower after another rejection from the $0.6391 resistance zone, which has repeatedly capped price action over recent weeks.
This area is forming a well-defined supply zone, with multiple failed breakout attempts reinforcing its technical relevance. The recent rejection aligns with the broader structure of a potential lower high, suggesting downside risk is building.
The pair is currently trading back below the highlighted resistance band, with the bearish move gaining traction. Immediate support is now seen at $0.6276 — a level that coincides with prior swing lows and the lower bound of the current consolidation. A breakdown below this point could expose $0.6193 as the next target.
The 50-period SMA, now at $0.6199, remains upward sloping but is yet to catch up with the latest price action, indicating a potential gap between short-term trend and momentum.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rolled over from a peak near 70 and is now sitting at 56, reflecting weakening bullish pressure without being oversold — a setup that often precedes deeper retracements.
As long as price remains below $0.6391, the short-term outlook favors a move lower. A clear break below $0.6300 would confirm bearish continuation and validate the $0.6276 target.
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