Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) remained under pressure around 3,323 level, struggling to stay above its fresh all-time high reached earlier this week. During the first half of the European trading session, gold dipped to a daily low around the $3,313 mark as optimism around US trade negotiations and hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell prompted profit-taking among traders.
Gold’s Struggles Amid US Economic Data and Fed's Hawkish Outlook
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar found some support following a positive Retail Sales report from the US Census Bureau, showing a 1.4% increase in March—marking the biggest jump in over two years. This followed a revised 0.2% increase in February, outpacing market expectations of a 1.3% rise.
Another factor boosting the dollar is Jerome Powell's comment that the Fed won’t cut interest rates soon because of inflation worries caused by Trump’s tariffs. This made investors less interested in buying gold.
Meanwhile, strong US economic data raised expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, making gold less attractive. Moving on, traders keep their eyes on upcoming data like jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
US-China Trade Tensions Boost Gold Prices Amid Economic Uncertainty
Despite the upbeat US economic data, the rapidly escalating trade tensions between the US and China continue to provide support for gold prices.
President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese goods has sparked retaliatory actions from China, including new export restrictions on rare earth metals and artificial intelligence chips. These tit-for-tat tariffs heighten global recession fears, which benefits gold as a safe-haven asset.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies and the US-China trade war has kept markets on edge, providing a tailwind for gold.
Gold Price Struggles Amid Hawkish Fed Outlook and USD Recovery
Looking ahead, gold prices remain cautious as traders are concerned about the possibility of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Although the market still expects that the Fed might cut rates later this year, recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggest a more cautious or "hawkish" approach for now. This, along with the US dollar’s recent recovery, is preventing gold from making strong gains.
Traders are now waiting for upcoming US economic data and further comments from the Fed, which could create short-term chances to adjust their trading strategies.
Despite the current pressure on gold, it continues to hold some value due to its reputation as a safe-haven asset. In times of global economic uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions, many investors still see gold as a reliable option for protecting their wealth.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is showing early signs of a short-term correction after reaching a high of $3,355. Price has since pulled back below the $3,344 resistance area, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.
The move coincides with a retreat from overbought RSI conditions and a rejection at the 0.0 Fibonacci extension level ($3,355), drawn from the March low of $3,192. The market has now slipped below the 0.236 retracement ($3,316), a level that may act as an early trigger for further downside.
Technical structure indicates a possible correction toward the $3,294 region, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. Should bearish momentum accelerate, further declines toward $3,274 and $3,254 may unfold.
These areas are clustered with deeper retracement levels and near the rising 50-period SMA, currently at $3,251 — a zone likely to attract buyers if tested.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from over 82 to 71.6, cooling from overbought levels but still above neutral. This supports the case for a continued retracement before a potential re-entry by trend-followers. As long as gold remains below $3,344, near-term risks lean toward a corrective phase.
A break back above $3,344 would weaken the bearish outlook and re-expose the $3,355–$3,375 resistance zone.
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