GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to show strong bullish momentum, trading above the $2,910 level for the second consecutive day.
On Tuesday, the precious metal reached a high of $2,915, attributed to growing fears of a potential global trade war. US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose reciprocal tariffs has sparked a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, pushing its price higher.
Moreover, the ongoing speculation about possible Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the near future is further enhancing gold's appeal. Although the market faces ongoing uncertainty, gold remains a long-lasting choice for investors seeking stability in volatile times.
US Dollar Recovery Caps Gold Gains Amid Geopolitical Developments and Fed Rate Cut Speculation
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar has seen a slight recovery, which has capped gold’s price gains, as a stronger dollar diminishes the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. However, the dollar’s rebound is attributed to positive geopolitical developments, including the delay in Trump’s tariffs and ongoing diplomatic talks to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Although the US Dollar has gained strength, the anticipation of a Fed rate cut remains a significant driver for gold’s recent upward momentum. Traders are increasingly pricing in rate cuts in September or October, especially after the release of mixed US economic data
Geopolitical Tensions and US Tariff Threats Support Gold Prices Above $2,900
On the geopolitical front, global trade tensions, particularly US President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on automobiles starting April 2, continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. This is part of a larger strategy to impose tariffs on countries that maintain duties on US imports.
Although there is hope that the tariffs may be delayed and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could ease tensions, the ongoing uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape is keeping gold supported above the $2,900 level.
Traders are keenly watching upcoming economic data, including the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which could provide further insight into the US economy's health. Moreover, speeches from key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members may create new trading opportunities for gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,913.89, up 0.04% in the session, maintaining its bullish momentum as the metal hovers above key support levels.
The price remains firmly above the pivot point at $2,905.41, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend. The 50-day EMA at $2,905.85 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing buyers' control over the market.
Immediate resistance is seen at $2,935.54, with further upside targets at $2,954.97 and $2,974.92. A break above these levels could fuel a rally toward the psychological $3,000 mark.
Conversely, immediate support stands at $2,887.52, with deeper floors at $2,864.58 and $2,834.27, which could attract buyers in the event of a pullback.
From a technical standpoint, gold's consolidation above $2,905 suggests growing bullish sentiment. The metal remains in an ascending channel, with higher lows indicating sustained demand. However, a break below $2,887 could shift momentum, exposing the asset to further downside.
Given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, gold traders should watch for a breakout confirmation above $2,935 to validate the next leg higher. If sellers regain control below $2,887, a retracement toward $2,864 may follow.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – Feb 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair remained flat near the 1.4179 level despite mild strength in the US dollar. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) traded sideways, as the US markets saw inactivity due to Washington's Day holiday.
Traders are awaiting crucial data later in the week, particularly the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures due for release on Tuesday, which could influence the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outlook.
US Dollar Supported by Tariff Threats but Limited by Holiday Volatility
On the US front, the strength of the US dollar continued to make an impact, as President Donald Trump reiterated his threat of tariffs, with taxes on autos expected to take effect by April 2. This announcement followed a series of trade measures initiated by the president during his second term.
While such threats typically strengthen the US Dollar, the lack of market activity due to the Washington's Day holiday capped the upside momentum. Investors are closely monitoring potential tariff developments, as an escalation in trade tensions could further bolster the USD against the Canadian Dollar.
Canadian CPI Data in Focus, Loonie Could Face Pressure
In Canada, all eyes are on the upcoming CPI data for January, expected to show a year-over-year increase of 1.8%. On a monthly basis, CPI is forecast to rise by 0.1%, following a decline of 0.4% in December. If inflation comes in softer than expected, the Canadian dollar could face pressure, potentially supporting a rise in the USD/CAD pair.
However, the positive impact of rising crude oil prices on the CAD cannot be overlooked. As the largest oil exporter to the US, Canada stands to benefit from higher oil prices, which could limit losses for the loonie.
Despite the renewed strength in the US dollar, the USD/CAD pair remains relatively stagnant as traders balance the economic data from both countries and monitor developments on the global trade front. With CPI data and oil prices in focus, the pair’s next move could depend heavily on the outcome of these factors.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.42072, edging lower by 0.01% as traders assess key technical levels. The pair is hovering near its pivot point at $1.41803, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish bias in the near term.
The 50-day EMA at $1.42724 is acting as overhead resistance, capping upside potential, while immediate support at $1.41257 remains intact.
On the upside, a break above $1.42450 could signal further gains, targeting resistance at $1.43035 and potentially extending toward $1.43614 if bullish momentum persists.
Conversely, a drop below $1.41257 may expose USD/CAD to further downside risks, with the next key supports at $1.40774 and $1.40203.
From a technical standpoint, the market remains in a consolidation phase, oscillating between well-defined support and resistance levels.
A decisive breakout above $1.42450 could confirm bullish momentum, while failure to hold above $1.41803 may tilt the bias in favor of sellers.
The 50-day EMA at $1.42724 serves as a key barrier, with a sustained break above it needed for a more definitive bullish confirmation.
Given the current setup, traders should watch for a breakout confirmation above resistance or a move below support to establish the next directional trend.
With USD/CAD trading near its pivot level, price action in the coming sessions will likely dictate market sentiment.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair extended its bearish trend, hovering around the 0.6355 level after hitting an intra-day low of 0.6334.
The decline came in response to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday, where the central bank lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking the first rate cut in four years.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, rebounded after three consecutive losing sessions, supported by rising US Treasury yields. This upward momentum in the USD further pressured the AUD/USD pair.
RBA Cuts Interest Rates, Banks Follow, as Inflation Slows in Australia
On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made a key decision on Tuesday, cutting its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%. This marked the first rate cut in four years, as expected by many analysts.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that while high interest rates have made an impact on the economy, it’s still too early to say inflation is fully under control. She also mentioned that the job market has been stronger than expected, and further rate cuts are not guaranteed.
Following the RBA's decision, Australia's major banks, including CBA, NAB, ANZ, and Westpac, also lowered their interest rates by 25 basis points.
This rate cut came after inflation data for December showed slowing price pressures. Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected in the last quarter of 2024, with the annualized rate dropping from 3.5% to 3.2%, providing some relief.
US Dollar Strengthens as Fed Officials Address Inflation and Economic Growth Concerns
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged higher, trading around 106.80 after three days of losses. The increase comes as US Treasury yields rise, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields standing at 4.26% and 4.50%, respectively. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman noted that rising asset prices might slow the Fed's progress on inflation.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller also addressed inflation concerns, admitting that while it has improved, progress has been slow. He emphasized that the Fed must base decisions on data rather than policy uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the US Census Bureau reported a 0.9% drop in retail sales for January, which was worse than expected, following a 0.7% increase in December. This weaker-than-expected retail data could influence the Fed's future policy decisions.
In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed does not need to rush into rate cuts due to strong job growth and solid economic performance. He also mentioned that US President Trump's tariffs could add inflationary pressures, making it harder for the central bank to reduce rates.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.63550, maintaining a neutral stance as traders assess key support and resistance levels. The pair is holding above the pivot point at $0.63343, suggesting a slight bullish bias, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $0.63214 acting as a dynamic support level.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63744, followed by $0.64057 and $0.64324. A breakout above these levels could trigger fresh buying momentum, pushing the pair toward the next key technical zones.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.63067, with further cushions at $0.62703 and $0.62331. A break below these support levels could indicate a shift in sentiment, leading to deeper losses.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD remains in a consolidative phase, oscillating between well-defined support and resistance levels.
A decisive move above $0.63744 could confirm a bullish breakout, potentially attracting buyers targeting $0.64057 and beyond. Conversely, if sellers regain control and push the price below $0.63067, the pair may enter a more pronounced downtrend.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Monday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to extend its gains, remaining under pressure near the 1.0481 level.
Despite the initial upside push, the pair could not break through the psychological resistance at 1.0500, as investors weighed several factors, including trade tensions and economic data.
The Eurozone is currently facing the threat of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on imported cars, with plans to announce them around April 2. These tariffs are expected to hit Germany, Japan, and South Korea, leading exporters of vehicles to the US.
Although European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Fabio Panetta downplayed the potential inflationary impact of these tariffs on the Eurozone, citing a limited or slightly negative effect, the uncertainty remains a concern for traders.
Panetta suggested that any weakening of the Euro, potentially driven by higher US tariffs and retaliation from Europe, would likely be counteracted by a global economic slowdown.
Moreover, the dovish monetary policy outlook from the ECB, with inflation falling below the 2% target as a primary concern, continues to keep the Euro under pressure.
US Dollar Faces Mixed Sentiment Amid Weak Retail Sales Data
On the US front, the US Dollar has shown some signs of weakness, trading near a two-month low, as market sentiment was affected by a poor retail sales report for January.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped below 107.00, with a sharp sell-off following the release of the disappointing retail sales data. The data revealed a faster-than-expected decline of 0.9%, compared to an anticipated contraction of only 0.1%.
Despite these weak data points, the US Dollar’s outlook is not entirely bearish. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance remains a limiting factor for any significant declines in the USD. With speeches from several Federal Reserve officials this week, markets will look for guidance on the central bank’s monetary policy direction.
Looking forward, all eyes will be on the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February, which could offer fresh insights into the US economy’s performance. Moreover, the ongoing geopolitical and economic developments surrounding tariffs and the ECB's stance on interest rates will continue to shape the EUR/USD outlook.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04929, holding just above the pivot point at $1.04832, signaling a potential continuation of its modest bullish momentum. The immediate resistance stands at $1.05205, with a breakout above this level opening the door to $1.05563 and $1.05920.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.04453, followed by deeper support levels at $1.03920 and $1.03519. A failure to hold above $1.04453 could shift sentiment toward the bearish side, potentially leading to further losses.
The 50-day EMA at $1.04138 is currently acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the case for further upside if EUR/USD remains above this level. A buying opportunity is present above $1.04838, with a target set at $1.05406 and a stop-loss at $1.04457.
The short-term trend remains cautiously bullish, but traders should watch for a break above $1.05205, as this could accelerate gains toward the next key resistance levels.
Conversely, a drop below the pivot point of $1.04832 could expose the pair to renewed selling pressure, particularly if upcoming economic data or central bank commentary shifts investor sentiment.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair prolonged its bullish rally and remained well bid around the 1.2603 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.2607.
However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to investors turning cautious ahead of the UK employment data for the three months ending in December, set to be released on Tuesday.
Traders are closely watching this data to gauge the strength of the UK labor market, which could influence the Bank of England's future decisions. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to stay above 106.70, its lowest level in over two months, adding some support to GBP/USD.
Another key factor influencing the British pound is the reaction of business owners to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ decision to raise employers’ contributions to National Insurance (NI). In the Autumn Budget, she announced an increase of 1.2%, bringing the rate to 15%, which will take effect in April.
This has raised concerns among businesses, as higher costs could impact hiring and overall economic growth. As a result, traders will be closely monitoring the UK labor market data to see how businesses are responding to these policy changes.
GBP/USD Gains Amid Cautious Sentiment Ahead of UK Employment Data
On the GBP front, the gains in the GBP/USD currency pair were mainly supported by investors being cautious ahead of the UK employment data for the three months ending in December, set to be released on Tuesday.
Investors are closely watching the UK labor market to see if business owners are still unhappy with the government’s decision to raise National Insurance contributions.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently announced a 1.2% increase, bringing the total to 15%, which will take effect in April. This move has led to a slowdown in private sector hiring, with only 35K new jobs added in the three months ending in November, a sharp drop from the 173K added in the previous period.
Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey stated that he sees signs of weakness in the labor market but remains confident that inflation is on a downward path. The UK’s unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% in December.
Market participants will also be watching closely for UK wage growth data, as strong wage increases could keep inflation high, especially in the service sector.
The BoE has warned that inflation may pick up again before returning to its 2% target due to higher energy prices. As a result, weak employment conditions and high inflation expectations could raise concerns about stagflation risks. Later in the week, investors will also focus on UK CPI and Retail Sales data.
US Dollar Weakens as Market Sentiment Improves, Supporting GBP/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been sluggish and remained subdued as market sentiment improved. The US dollar weakened as fears of an immediate global trade war eased after US President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, which are now unlikely to take effect before April 1.
Last week, investors had been worried about a potential trade war, expecting Trump to announce new tariffs on Thursday.
Meanwhile, recent US inflation data came in stronger than expected, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showing higher-than-anticipated numbers for January.
This has led to cautious remarks from Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan, who emphasized the need for patience before adjusting interest rates. She stated that the Federal Reserve would closely monitor upcoming economic data, as well as geopolitical developments and Trump’s economic policies.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is hovering around $1.25960, showing signs of consolidation after a recent pullback. The pair is trading just above its pivot point at $1.25795, which serves as a critical level for determining near-term direction.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.26310, and a breakout above this level could drive bullish momentum toward the next resistance zones at $1.26667 and $1.27037.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.25498, followed by key levels at $1.25104 and $1.24765. A failure to hold above $1.25498 could accelerate selling pressure, potentially triggering a deeper correction.
The 50-day EMA at $1.24956 suggests that the broader trend remains supported, as the moving average aligns closely with key support levels. If buyers maintain control above the $1.25793 entry point, a move toward $1.26303 appears likely, making it a strategic buy opportunity with a stop loss at $1.25488.
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is positioned for a potential breakout if it maintains strength above the pivot point of $1.25795.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 17, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its bullish momentum and remained well bid around $2,898 level, reaching an intra-day high of $2,906.
However, the main drivers behind this rally include the ongoing weakness in the US Dollar, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs, and disappointing US Retail Sales data. These factors have provided strong support for gold, pushing it above the critical $2,900 mark.
Despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates, gold remains resilient. However, the market continues to favor gold due to its safe-haven status in an uncertain global economic environment.
In the meantime, ongoing US-Russia negotiations over the Ukraine conflict have not impacted gold’s bullish momentum, further solidifying its strong outlook.
Weaker US Dollar and Inflation Concerns Bolster Gold's Strength
On the US front, the US dollar remains under pressure, hovering near a two-month low around 106.70. This decline comes amid weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data, which fell by 0.9% in January, far exceeding the anticipated 0.1% decline.
The disappointing economic data, coupled with lower US Treasury yields, has weighed on the dollar, making gold more attractive to investors.
Furthermore, inflation data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts. Notably, the US Core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to 3.6% year-over-year in January, surpassing expectations of 3.3%. Similarly, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 3.0% annually, with core CPI rising to 3.3%, both exceeding forecasts.
Therefore, this combination of a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields, along with stronger inflation data, has made gold more attractive. Investors are turning to gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, pushing its price higher.
Impact of Trade Uncertainty and Fed's Stance on Gold Prices
Another key factor influencing gold prices is concern over Donald Trump’s proposed trade policies. The former US president has hinted at imposing new tariffs on countries that tax US imports, raising fears of a trade war. These developments have increased market uncertainty, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently reiterated that policymakers are in no rush to lower interest rates, citing strong job growth and economic resilience. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll of economists indicates that the majority expect at least one rate cut by June, though opinions remain divided on the exact timing.
Therefore, the ongoing concerns over Trump's proposed tariffs and ongoing market uncertainty, combined with the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, are driving investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset, supporting its price.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating around $2,900, struggling to gain momentum as it trades near its key pivot point at $2,919.39.
The metal’s short-term price action remains uncertain, with traders eyeing crucial resistance and support levels. A break above $2,935.54 could trigger fresh buying interest, potentially pushing prices toward the next resistance levels at $2,954.97 and $2,970.84.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,853.43. If gold breaches this level, further declines toward $2,834.27 and $2,811.56 may follow. The 50-day EMA at $2,906.38 is acting as dynamic support, keeping gold within a tight range.
The 4-hour chart suggests gold remains in a consolidation phase, with buyers defending the $2,887 level while sellers cap gains near $2,920. The market's next major move hinges on whether gold can break out of this tight range. A buy entry above $2,887 with a target of $2,920 and a stop loss at $2,872 could provide a strategic trade setup.
Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish above $2,887, but failure to hold support could accelerate selling pressure.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
S&P 500 (SPX) Index maintained its bullish trend and surged past the 6,116 level in intraday trading, marking an increase of over 1% as investor sentiment improved.
However, the rally was largely driven by US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, alleviating some trade war concerns.
Global markets remained strong, with European indexes set for their eighth consecutive weekly gain. Trump's announcement to hold off on imposing new tariffs suggested a willingness to negotiate, which helped fuel optimism among investors.
However, uncertainty remains as previous tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China continue to impact global trade.
S&P 500 Gains Momentum as US Dollar Weakens and Inflation Remains Sticky
On the other hand, the broad-based US dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index (DXY) dropping to 107.50. This decline came as progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks boosted investor confidence, reducing demand for the safe-haven dollar.
Hence, the weaker dollar typically benefits stocks, and this shift in sentiment helped the S&P 500 gain traction. Investors turned their focus to riskier assets, pushing equities higher as optimism about geopolitical stability improved.
Meanwhile, fresh inflation data from the US showed that price pressures remain strong. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.5% in January, exceeding expectations of 3.2%, while core PPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 3.6%. These figures indicate that inflation is still sticky, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay its expected interest rate cuts.
Despite these inflation concerns, the S&P 500 continued its upward movement, supported by strong corporate earnings and improved risk appetite. Investors remain hopeful that economic growth and easing geopolitical tensions will sustain the stock market's positive momentum.
Investor Focus on US Retail Sales Data
Moving ahead, investors are keeping an eye on the upcoming US Retail Sales data, which could impact market trends. If sales are strong, it may boost confidence in the economy and support stock market gains. On the other hand, weaker data could raise expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 6115.08, up 0.01%, as the index continues to hover near record highs despite mixed economic signals.
The benchmark remains supported above its pivot point of 6093.87, indicating a positive underlying trend.
From a technical perspective, the index maintains its position above the 50-day EMA at 6054.58, suggesting sustained bullish sentiment. Immediate resistance is seen at 6128.99, with a potential move toward 6171.70 if the index breaks through.
A successful climb beyond this level could open the path toward 6219.27, marking a new high for the year.
On the downside, immediate support rests at 6049.53, with subsequent levels at 6008.89 and 5969.55. A drop below the 6049 mark may trigger profit-taking and shift sentiment toward the bearish side.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates neutral territory, suggesting room for further gains if buying pressure intensifies.
Fundamental factors also contribute to the cautious optimism, with strong corporate earnings providing support despite concerns about inflation and potential interest rate adjustments.
Recent PPI data showed a modest uptick, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts, which investors are closely monitoring.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend and hit an all-time high of $2,939. The rally was mainly supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order for reciprocal tariffs on Thursday.
Although the tariffs will take weeks to be implemented, investors are playing it safe and shifting their money into Gold, pushing its price higher.
Another reason for Gold’s strong performance is the weakening US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) has lost traction as traders realize that Trump's tariffs won’t take effect immediately, leaving room for negotiations.
This uncertainty has reduced the urgency to rush into the Dollar, making Gold a more attractive option for investors looking for stability.
Gold Near Record Highs as US Dollar Struggles and Inflation Concerns Rise
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the Dollar against other major currencies, is holding steady after losses in the previous session. It remains around the 107.00 level, with US Treasury bond yields for 2-year and 10-year notes standing at 4.31% and 4.53%, respectively.
Inflation figures also came in higher than expected, with both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising more than anticipated. This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold off on cutting interest rates for now.
The Fed's stance on rates remains cautious due to the strong job market and economic growth. In his semi-annual report, Fed Chair Powell mentioned there’s no rush to lower rates, especially with rising inflation pressures.
Trump’s tariffs on several countries could also contribute to higher prices, making it more difficult for the Fed to ease rates anytime soon. This uncertainty about inflation and rate cuts has kept Gold attractive, pushing its price to near record highs.
Gold has been on the rise for three days, recently trading close to its all-time high. With the US dollar struggling and trade tensions increasing due to Trump’s tariff orders, Gold remains a safe-haven investment.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,932.09, up 0.01% as it maintains its bullish momentum amid persistent inflation concerns and ongoing tariff-related market anxiety.
The metal remains supported above its pivot point of $2,923.29, indicating continued investor interest in safe-haven assets.
Technically, gold is trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA, which sits at $2,907.75. This suggests the bullish trend remains intact, with the next immediate resistance at $2,943.27.
A break above this level could propel gold toward $2,959.89 and potentially $2,975.66 if the upward momentum strengthens.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,898.08, followed by $2,879.70 and $2,864.94. A dip below the $2,898 level might trigger profit-taking and shift sentiment to the downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near neutral, signaling balanced market sentiment with room for potential upside if buying pressure increases.
Fundamentally, gold continues to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar and elevated inflation figures, as the latest PPI data showed a 3.5% year-over-year rise, exceeding market expectations.
The Federal Reserve's cautious approach toward rate cuts further supports gold’s appeal, particularly as uncertainty surrounding new tariff measures persists.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair prolonged its upward trend and remained well bid around the 1.0480 level. The reason for this bullish rally could be tied to increased demand for riskier assets and a weaker US dollar.
Investors are feeling more optimistic due to multiple positive developments, including the delay in Trump's proposed tariffs and hopes for peace between Russia and Ukraine. This has reduced the demand for the safe-haven US dollar, making the euro more attractive.
Euro Gains Support but Faces Pressure from ECB Rate Cut Expectations
On the EUR front, the shared currency has been supported by positive developments, including optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine truce. If the conflict ends, it could significantly improve the Eurozone’s energy supply and ease supply chain disruptions.
However, the European Commission has strongly opposed Trump's proposed reciprocal tariffs, calling them a step "in the wrong direction" and warning of an immediate and firm response. While the delay in these tariffs has provided temporary relief, trade tensions remain a risk for the Euro.
At the same time, expectations of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could put pressure on the Euro against the US dollar. Several ECB officials, including Croatian central bank Governor Boris Vujčić, have signaled that three more rate cuts this year seem reasonable.
The ECB already lowered rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% last month, and if more cuts happen, the widening rate gap with the Federal Reserve could weaken the Euro.
Despite these concerns, the Eurozone economy showed slight growth in Q4 2024, with GDP rising by 0.1% compared to initial estimates of 0%. Employment also grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.6% year-on-year. While these figures indicate slow but steady progress, traders remain cautious about the Euro’s outlook against the US dollar.
US Dollar Weakens on Trade and Peace Hopes, but Fed’s Stance Limits Losses
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower as safe-haven demand faded due to a delay in Trump's reciprocal tariffs and growing hopes for peace between Russia and Ukraine.
This led to a fresh four-week low in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against major currencies, slipping below 107.00. The reduced demand for the USD has given the Euro some support, helping EUR/USD stay strong.
However, the US dollar's outlook is not entirely bearish, as traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates high for an extended period.
The Fed's current rate range of 4.25%-4.50% is expected to remain unchanged for at least the next three meetings, with a 50% chance of a rate cut in July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that the central bank is ready to keep rates high if inflation remains above the 2% target and the economy stays strong.
Looking ahead, investors are closely watching US Retail Sales data for January, which is set to be released at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect a 0.1% decline in sales after a 0.4% rise in December. If the data is weaker than expected, it could put more pressure on the US dollar and further support EUR/USD.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.04560, down 0.01%, as the euro faces renewed pressure amid mixed macroeconomic signals. The pair continues to consolidate near its pivot point of 1.04369, suggesting a period of indecision for traders.
Technically, the pair remains above the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.03703, indicating underlying bullish potential. Immediate resistance is observed at 1.04927, with further targets at 1.05326 and 1.05696 if upward momentum strengthens.
A clear break above 1.04927 could attract fresh buying interest and shift the short-term outlook to bullish.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.03916, followed by 1.03452. A drop below these levels could expose the pair to further losses, with the next key support at 1.02963. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, hinting at possible volatility if the pair approaches the 1.04369 pivot.
Fundamentally, the euro remains vulnerable to external economic factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate adjustments and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
The latest PPI figures in the U.S. came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish narrative and giving the dollar a slight edge. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring European inflation data due later this week, which could provide further direction.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their bullish momentum, reaching an intra-day high of $2,922. The recent surge is largely attributed to a decline in US Treasury bond yields, which weakened the US Dollar and made gold more attractive to investors.
Furthermore, growing fears of a global trade war, fueled by former US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, have intensified demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Despite gold’s strong upward trend, the concerns over rising US inflation persist. On the data front, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed a higher-than-expected increase in consumer prices, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance.
Hence, the prospect of prolonged high interest rates could pose challenges for gold’s rally, as rising US Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
US Dollar Struggles Amid Inflation Concerns and Trade Tariffs, Supporting Gold Prices
On the macroeconomic front, the US Dollar has struggled to gain momentum, providing additional support for gold. The latest US inflation report initially triggered market volatility, but persistent concerns over former US President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs kept safe-haven demand strong.
Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, along with threats of additional tariffs on countries with high levies on US goods, has heightened market uncertainty.
On the data front, the US inflation data showed that consumer prices surged in January, with the CPI rising by 0.5%, marking the highest increase since August 2023. The annual inflation rate climbed to 3%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 3.3%, exceeding market expectations.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that inflation remains a key concern, making it unlikely that the central bank will cut interest rates until inflation moves closer to the 2% target.
Meanwhile, strong US economic data, including robust job market performance and GDP growth, further supports the Fed’s cautious stance.
Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could provide additional clarity on inflation trends.
If inflation remains elevated, gold and silver prices may face resistance, but if inflation shows signs of easing, both metals could continue their bullish momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2917.37, showing slight downside pressure as it hovers just below its pivot point of $2922.88. The 50-day EMA at $2900.68 provides a crucial support level, reinforcing near-term stability. However, the bearish sentiment remains intact as long as gold stays below the pivot.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2943.27, with a breakout potentially pushing gold towards $2959.89 and ultimately $2975.96. However, recent price action suggests that buyers are struggling to gain control, making a sustained move above these levels uncertain.
On the downside, immediate support is set at $2898.08, followed by $2879.70 and $2864.94. A break below these levels could accelerate selling momentum, with traders eyeing the next key levels for potential entry points.
The entry strategy favors selling below $2922, targeting $2900 as a take-profit level, while stop-loss is set at $2935 to manage risk. The overall trend suggests cautious bearish sentiment, with gold needing a decisive breakout above resistance levels to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.
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