Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair extended its sharp decline and remained under pressure around the 147.70 level during the European trading session.
The pair's bearish trend can be attributed to the strengthening Japanese Yen (JPY), which continues to gain traction against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
The JPY remains near its multi-month high, supported by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue hiking interest rates.
Stronger Japanese Yen Driven by BoJ's Hawkish Outlook
The Japanese Yen has been strengthening amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan will tighten its monetary policy further.
BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank is prepared to adjust its policy in response to economic conditions.
This hawkish stance has fueled expectations of additional rate hikes, leading to a surge in Japanese bond yields.
Notably, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond has reached its highest level since June 2009. The narrowing yield gap between Japan and other economies has provided further support to the JPY, adding to the downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Weaker US Dollar Amid Rate Cut Expectations and Soft Economic Data
On the US front, the US dollar has been struggling amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as early as June.
On the data front, the latest economic data has reinforced these expectations, with the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report revealing that private-sector employment increased by just 77K in February, significantly below the 140K forecast.
In the meantime, US consumer confidence deteriorated to a 15-month low, further fueling speculation that the Fed will need to adopt a more accommodative policy stance.
Despite positive data indicating continued expansion in the US services sector, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its weekly downtrend, dropping to its lowest level since November 6.
The prolonged weakness of the USD has contributed to the sharp decline in the USD/JPY pair, with traders remaining cautious ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday.
Traders will now turn their attention to upcoming US economic data releases, particularly the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. These reports will provide fresh insights into the US labor market and could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
If the data further supports the case for Fed rate cuts, the USD/JPY pair could experience additional downside pressure.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading at 148.852, edging lower as sellers gain control below the pivot point at 149.326. The pair remains under pressure as market sentiment tilts toward a risk-off environment, and traders assess the outlook for U.S. interest rates and Bank of Japan policy shifts.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at 149.672 acts as a dynamic resistance level, reinforcing the bearish outlook below 149.30. Immediate resistance is set at 150.174, and a break above this level could lead to a test of 151.208 and potentially extend toward 152.128. However, the downward momentum suggests further downside potential if the pair remains below its pivot level.
On the support side, 148.189 serves as immediate protection against deeper declines. If this level breaks, the next targets lie at 147.435 and 146.690, areas where buyers may attempt to stabilize the pair.
For now, a sustained move below 149.30 confirms bearish control, with further losses expected toward 148.19. A rebound above this level could lead to short-term consolidation, but a stronger push beyond 150.17 is required to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.
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