GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) picked up some further bullish momentum and climbing to an intraday high of $2,653.82. However, the increase came as investors sought safety amid rising global tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continues to unsettle markets.
Adding to the uncertainty, concerns about President-elect Donald Trump's potential tariff policies have made gold a more attractive option for investors looking to safeguard their assets in these uncertain times.
Moving ahead, traders await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index and quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized scheduled to be released later in the North American session.
Gold Gains Amid Weaker US Dollar and Cautious Fed Signals
On the US front, the US dollar has been under pressure, weighed down by bond market optimism and cautious signals from the Federal Reserve. The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from November 7 show that policymakers are hesitant to cut interest rates further, citing easing inflation and strong job growth.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that the Fed is moving toward a neutral rate policy, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari hinted at the possibility of another rate cut in December.
Adding to the uncertainty, US President-elect Donald Trump is making key appointments, with Jamieson Greer expected to become the US Trade Representative, emphasizing tariffs as a cornerstone of Trump’s economic plans.
Moreover, Scott Bessent, a seasoned Wall Street figure, has been nominated as Treasury Secretary, signaling a focus on fiscal conservatism. These developments have supported gains in the US bond market, creating mixed sentiment around the dollar.
On the US economic front, the recent data like the preliminary S&P Global PMI, suggests the Federal Reserve might slow down its rate cuts. Futures markets currently estimate a 57.7% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in December. This cautious outlook on monetary policy keeps traders focused on inflation trends and upcoming Fed decisions.
Therefore, the weaker US dollar and cautious Federal Reserve outlook support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. However, uncertainty around future rate cuts and strong US bond market performance may limit gold's upside in the near term.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,644.20, up 0.43%, as the metal continues its rebound from recent lows. On the 4-hour chart, the price is firmly positioned above the pivot point at $2,636.43, reflecting a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,646.32, closely aligned with recent highs, while further resistance is seen at $2,655.97. A decisive breakout above these levels could pave the way for an extended rally toward $2,665.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,624.72, with secondary levels at $2,590.15 and $2,576.56. A break below the pivot point could expose gold to bearish momentum, testing the $2,600 mark and possibly lower levels.
Technical indicators point to a neutral to slightly bullish bias. The RSI currently stands at 48, signaling consolidation with room for either a breakout or a pullback depending on upcoming catalysts. Traders are closely watching inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for cues.
The overall technical picture suggests that gold’s ability to sustain above the pivot point at $2,636.43 is critical for maintaining upward momentum. However, strong resistance at $2,646.32 could limit gains unless fresh drivers emerge.
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- GBP/USD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2024
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair edged higher and reached an intra-day high of 1.2620. This rise comes as the US Dollar loses some ground because US President-elect Donald Trump nominated Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary.
The market hopes Bessent will help carry out Trump’s trade policies slowly and carefully to avoid a full trade war. On the other hand, the British Pound is being cautious due to worries about how Trump’s tariffs might impact the UK’s exports.
US Dollar Faces Pressure Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been under pressure this week after President-elect Donald Trump nominated Scott Bessent, an experienced hedge fund manager, for Treasury Secretary.
Investors believe Bessent will help implement Trump’s trade policies carefully to avoid a major trade war. This uncertainty has caused the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, to weaken.
On the other side, investors are closely watching the possibility of a rate cut in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed reducing interest rates by 0.25% has increased to 65% from 56% last week.
This is mainly due to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Tuesday, which showed that some officials are open to pausing rate cuts if inflation stays high, while others believe further cuts might be needed if economic conditions worsen.
Moving on, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for October, set to be released at 15:00 GMT. Economists predict that the core PCE inflation – which excludes food and energy prices – will rise to 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in September, with a steady 0.3% monthly increase.
Therefore, the uncertainty around US trade policies and the potential rate cut by the Fed could weaken the US dollar, which may support a rise in the GBP/USD pair. If inflation data aligns with expectations, the Pound could strengthen further against the Dollar.
Pound Sterling Faces Uncertainty Amid US Tariff Concerns and BoE Rate Expectations
On the other hand, the Pound Sterling is showing uncertain price movement against other major currencies as concerns grow about the impact of US tariffs on the UK’s export sector. These worries are making traders wary, affecting the Pound’s performance.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli spoke about the potential impact of US tariffs on the UK economy. She acknowledged that trade barriers could harm economic growth in the short, medium, and long term but refrained from making any specific predictions about how severe the effect might be.
This week, there are no significant UK economic updates. As a result, the British Pound’s movement will likely depend on market expectations regarding the BoE’s interest rate decision in December. Currently, traders expect the BoE to keep interest rates steady at 4.75% next month, waiting for more data before deciding on future actions.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rates may weigh on the British Pound. This could limit any significant upward movement for GBP/USD, as traders await further economic data and BoE's rate decision in December.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.25792, up 0.09%, reflecting cautious optimism amid mixed technical signals. On the 4-hour chart, the pair remains above its 50 EMA at $1.25722, suggesting moderate support for current levels.
The pivot point at $1.26157 is a critical barrier; a sustained move above this level could target immediate resistance at $1.26476, followed by $1.26747.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.25363, with further levels at $1.25112 and $1.24874. A break below $1.25363 would likely shift momentum toward bearish territory, exposing the pair to declines toward $1.24874 or lower.
Technical indicators paint a neutral-to-slightly-bullish picture. The RSI stands at 52, indicating consolidation near the midpoint of the range. While not overbought, the pair lacks significant upward momentum, keeping price action restrained.
The outlook hinges on the pivot point at $1.26157. A breakout above this key level would affirm bullish sentiment and open the door for a move toward $1.26476 and beyond.
Conversely, failure to hold above the 50 EMA at $1.25722 or a decisive break below $1.25363 could prompt sellers to regain control, leading to short-term bearish pressure.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward momentum, reaching an intra-day high of 1.0539. The pair strengthened as the US Dollar weakened ahead of key US economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Spending for October, revised Q3 GDP growth estimates, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 22, all set to be released later in the North American session.
Despite the gain in EUR/USD pair, the overall outlook for the shared currency remains cautious as European Central Bank (ECB) officials have expressed concern about the Eurozone’s economic growth, both now and in the future, which could limit further strength for the Euro.
Uncertainty Over ECB's Economic Outlook and Rate Cuts Weigh on EUR/USD Pair
On the EUR front, the outlook for the Euro remains uncertain as the European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned about the Eurozone's economic growth. ECB policymakers are increasingly worried about the future, with some even fearing that inflation could fall below the bank's target.
On Tuesday, ECB policymaker Mario Centeno, who is also the head of Portugal's central bank, warned that the Eurozone economy is stagnating, and the risks are mainly on the downside. He also mentioned that the threat of tariffs, especially from the US under Trump, adds to these risks. Centeno cautioned that inflation could fall short of the ECB's target, suggesting that the bank should not wait too long before cutting interest rates.
On the other hand, ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel has a more positive view on inflation, stating that the risk of inflation undershooting the target is not a major concern. She also hinted that if inflation remains in line with expectations, the ECB could gradually move toward a more neutral monetary policy.
Market participants are divided on the possibility of a rate cut in December, with some expecting a 50 basis point reduction. Investors are now waiting for upcoming inflation data, which could offer more clarity on the ECB's next move.
Hence, the uncertainty around the ECB’s economic outlook and potential rate cuts could weigh on the Euro, limiting its gains against the US Dollar. However, the possibility of a rate cut in December might provide some support for the EUR/USD pair.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Gradual Tariff Plans and Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Supporting EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has recently lost some strength after hitting a two-year high last Friday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, dropped to a fresh weekly low around 106.35. This drop came after comments from Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager nominated by President-elect Donald Trump for Treasury Secretary. Bessent stated that any tariffs imposed would be implemented gradually, and the budget deficit would be reduced without causing high inflation, easing some market fears.
Investors are now focused on the upcoming PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for making policy decisions. Economists expect the headline PCE inflation to rise to 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 2.1% in September. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 2.8%, slightly higher than the previous month's 2.7%.
Therefore, the US dollar's recent weakness, driven by comments on gradual tariff implementation and expectations of a potential Fed rate cut, could support the EUR/USD pair. If PCE data signals lower inflation, it may reduce pressure on the Fed to hike rates.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.04850, down 0.03%, as the pair struggles to hold above key technical levels. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point at $1.05203 serves as a significant hurdle, with immediate resistance at $1.05625 and further resistance at $1.06071.
A break above these levels could indicate a reversal of the recent bearish sentiment and open the door for further gains.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.04378, with additional levels at $1.03854 and $1.03489. The pair is currently hovering near its 50 EMA, which sits at $1.04776. This level is providing short-term support, but a sustained break below it could reinforce bearish momentum.
The RSI is at 49, reflecting a neutral bias but leaning slightly toward oversold territory. This suggests that while the pair is under pressure, it may find temporary relief if buyers step in near current support levels.
The outlook for EUR/USD depends heavily on its ability to regain traction above the $1.05203 pivot point. A failure to break this level could see the pair retest support at $1.04378, potentially triggering further declines. Conversely, a move above $1.05625 would indicate bullish momentum, shifting the focus toward higher resistance levels.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 26, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is facing some difficulty in gaining momentum and has been stuck around the $2,600 mark, hovering near its lowest point in a week during the European session on Tuesday. However, the tariff threat from US President-elect Donald Trump sparked some brief safe-haven demand, giving gold a small boost.
Despite this, concerns that the Federal Reserve might take a less dovish approach are preventing gold from making significant gains, putting a lid on its upward potential for now.
Meanwhile, the market is increasingly confident that President-elect Donald Trump’s expansionary policies could drive inflation higher, which may push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a slower pace. This belief is fueling a fresh rise in US Treasury bond yields and giving the US Dollar a boost. Hence, the stronger dollar, in turn, is putting more pressure on gold prices.
Moreover, the increasing optimism around Scott Bessent’s nomination as the US Treasury Secretary and hopes for a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah are further limiting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Moving ahead, market participants are now focusing on the upcoming FOMC minutes for clues about the Federal Reserve's future rate-cut plans.
Impact of US Economic Trends and Fed Expectations on Gold Prices
The US Dollar continues to rise and stay strong, mainly because people expect President-elect Donald Trump's policies to boost inflation. This could lead the Federal Reserve to slow down its interest rate cuts. As a result, US Treasury bond yields are going up, which makes the US Dollar stronger and puts some pressure on gold prices.
However, the ongoing hopes that Scott Bessent, the possible US Treasury Secretary, will take a more gradual approach to tariffs have led to a sharp drop in US Treasury bond yields. This has temporarily weakened the USD, but the decline in bond yields remains limited due to the ongoing expectation of a less dovish Fed.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that the central bank will continue to lower rates unless there is clear evidence of an overheated economy, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested another rate cut could be considered at the December FOMC meeting.
However, traders are scaling back their bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, as Trump's policies are expected to fuel inflation. This keeps US bond yields higher and helps the USD fill its weekly bearish gap, further limiting gold's upside potential.
Market participants are now looking to the FOMC minutes and upcoming economic data, including the Q3 GDP revision and the PCE Price Index, for more insights on the Fed’s future actions.
Therefore, the stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury bond yields limit gold's upside potential. As expectations of slower rate cuts and higher inflation grow, demand for gold remains subdued, keeping the precious metal under pressure in the market.
Geopolitical Tensions and Ceasefire Hopes Impact Gold Prices
On the geopolitical front, the possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have put pressure on gold prices at the start of the week. However, tensions are still high in the Middle East. Israeli forces have intensified their operations in northern Gaza, and there have been ongoing strikes in Lebanon.
These actions continue to raise concerns about a further escalation in the region, which could eventually increase demand for gold if the situation worsens.
Despite the ceasefire hopes, the geopolitical risks remain, keeping the market on edge. If the conflict escalates further, it could drive more investors to seek gold as a safe haven, which may provide some support for the precious metal in the near future.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,623.21, down 0.09%, as it consolidates below the critical pivot point at $2,631.72. Technical indicators suggest that bearish momentum dominates, with immediate support at $2,605.31. A break below this level could expose gold to deeper supports at $2,582.37 and $2,561.16.
On the upside, resistance levels lie at $2,647.56, the 50-day EMA at $2,663.32, and further at $2,687.93. These levels present formidable challenges, especially as gold remains weighed down by a weaker Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 36, which reflects oversold conditions but insufficient buying pressure to trigger a recovery.
The bearish outlook is further supported by the alignment of the 50-day EMA as a dynamic resistance level, capping upward moves. Gold traders are focusing on the potential for a break below $2,631.72, which could trigger a sell-off toward the next significant target at $2,594. Conversely, a reversal above the pivot and sustained trading above $2,647.56 would be necessary to challenge the next resistance zones.
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- USD/CAD Price Analysis – Nov 26, 2024
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Nov 26, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair is struggling to break its bearish trend, remained under pressure around the 0.6490 level and hitting a low of 0.6434. The main reason behind its decline is the growing concerns over the US-China trade tensions.
It should be noted that US President-elect Donald Trump recently warned about imposing a 25% tariff on goods coming from Mexico and Canada, along with an extra 10% tariff on Chinese imports. This has made investors more cautious, especially when it comes to riskier assets, and has weighed heavily on the Australian Dollar.
Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance, the AUD has failed to gain momentum. Besides this, some buying in the US Dollar (USD) has added to the bearish outlook for the AUD/USD pair in the near term.
Looking forward, traders are hesitant to make big moves, waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes to get a better idea of future rate cuts.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Trade Policy Concerns and Slower Fed Rate Cuts, Weighing on AUD/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining strength due to concerns around US President-elect Donald Trump's trade policies. Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on Chinese goods. These threats have reduced investors' interest for riskier assets, weighing on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Looking ahead, traders seem cautious, waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes to get a clearer picture of potential rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar gained traction as traders anticipated slower interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Scott Bessent’s nomination as US Treasury Secretary briefly eased concerns that Trump’s policies could reignite inflation and force the Fed to cut rates aggressively. As a result, US Treasury yields rose, attracting more buyers to the USD.
Therefore, the US dollar's strength, fueled by concerns over Trump's trade policies and expectations of slower Fed rate cuts, has weighed on the Australian Dollar (AUD). This has contributed to a bearish outlook for the AUD/USD pair, pushing it lower.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.64901, down 0.20%, as bearish sentiment persists below the pivot point at $0.65456. Price action remains constrained under the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.65068, which reinforces the downside bias.
Immediate support is located at $0.64497, with further levels seen at $0.64154 and $0.63763, suggesting potential for further declines if selling pressure intensifies.
On the upside, resistance lies at $0.65918 and $0.66399, which align with key technical levels that could limit recovery attempts. The RSI at 45 reflects neutral-to-bearish momentum, signaling that sellers remain in control, but the pair is not yet oversold.
The bearish trend appears intact, with traders eyeing a possible break below $0.65014. A sustained move below this level could open the door toward the next target of $0.64488, while the 50-day EMA continues to act as a dynamic resistance level.
Conversely, a recovery above the pivot at $0.65456 would be required to negate the bearish outlook and aim for the higher resistance at $0.65918.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – Nov 26, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the US Dollar bearish bias, the USD/CAD pair has continued to rise, trading around 1.4090, with an intra-day high of 1.4178.
However, the upward trend can be largely attributed to market uncertainty sparked by President-elect Donald Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US.
These developments weighed heavily on the Canadian Dollar, which is sensitive to risk, pushing the USD/CAD higher.
Moreover, weaker oil prices are adding pressure on the CAD as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, its currency often moves in line with oil price changes. When crude prices drop, the CAD tends to weaken, further fueling the rise in USD/CAD.
USD/CAD Surges Amid Tariff Concerns and Falling Oil Prices
However, the global market sentiment has been flashing red as market uncertainty increased following President-elect Donald Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US.
This news has weakened market sentiment, putting pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), which is sensitive to such risk factors.
US President-elect Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had a positive talk on trade and border security on Monday night. While the conversation was seen as constructive, Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister did not mention Trump’s threat of tariffs.
She stressed that the Canada-US relationship is balanced and beneficial, especially for American workers, but the threat of tariffs is still affecting market sentiment.
On the other hand, the weaker crude oil prices are adding pressure on the CAD. As Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, the value of the Canadian Dollar often moves in sync with oil price changes. At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is trading around $69.00.
The decline in oil prices follows reports of a potential resolution to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, easing geopolitical tensions and further contributing to the drop in oil prices, which typically weakens the CAD.
Therefore, the combination of tariff concerns and falling oil prices is putting downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar, leading to a continued rise in the USD/CAD pair. This allows the USD to strengthen against the CAD, pushing the pair higher.
USD Faces Pressure Amid Fed's Rate Cut Comments, but Strong PMI Data Provides Stability
On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) is facing pressure after comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Tuesday. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee suggested that the Fed is likely to continue lowering interest rates to a neutral level, which neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.
Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned that it might be appropriate to consider another rate cut at the Fed's meeting in December, according to Bloomberg.
Despite these dovish signals, the declines in the US dollar could be short-lived. This is mainly due to strong preliminary data from the S&P Global US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which shows better-than-expected economic performance.
These solid figures have helped reduce concerns about the economy, supporting the idea that the Fed may take a more gradual approach to further rate cuts.
Therefore, the Fed's dovish comments put some pressure on the USD, but strong PMI data provides support. This mixed outlook limits significant declines in the USD, helping to keep the USD/CAD pair relatively stable, with potential for gradual upward movement.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Nov 25, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward momentum, staying well supported around 1.2567 and reaching an intra-day high of 1.2607. This rise was driven by several factors. The Pound Sterling made a strong recovery after a sharp sell-off on Friday, triggered by disappointing UK economic data.
However, market sentiment on Monday was more positive, helping the Pound regain ground. Meanwhile, the US Dollar started the week weaker, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling by 0.5% to near 107.00, offering relief to the GBP/USD pair.
Furthermore, technical factors played a role in the Pound's recovery, as it made a notable attempt to break through the key resistance level of 1.2600, signaling strength and resilience. Traders will be watching closely to see if this upward momentum can be sustained in the coming days.
Weaker US Dollar and Positive US Economic Data Fuel GBP/USD Recovery
On the data front, the broad-based US Dollar edged lower at the start of the week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading 0.5% down near 107.00.
This decline helped the Pound Sterling (GBP) gain ground, as it attempted to extend its recovery above the key resistance level of 1.2600 against the US Dollar (USD).
The weaker USD allowed the GBP/USD currency pair to make a strong start to the week, supported by some positive sentiment in the market.
Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yields dropped to around 4.33% after investors reacted to President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Some analysts were pleased with the appointment, seeing it as a reassuring sign for Wall Street.
They noted that Bessent’s approach would focus on implementing tariffs, cutting government spending, and maintaining the US Dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.
In addition, upbeat flash S&P Global PMI data for November showed an improving US economy, with the Composite PMI rising to 55.3, the highest in 31 months. This suggested that the manufacturing sector’s decline was slowing down, and the services sector was growing faster than expected.
As a result, traders are split on what the Federal Reserve will do at its December meeting, with 56% expecting a 25 basis point rate cut and 44% predicting that rates will stay the same.
Therefore, the weaker US Dollar and positive market sentiment helped the GBP/USD pair extend its recovery above 1.2600. The drop in US Treasury yields and favorable US economic data further supported the Pound's strength, boosting its upward momentum against the Dollar.
BoE's Cautious Stance Supports Pound Recovery Amid Weak UK Economic Data
On the BoE front, the British Pound faced a tough time on Friday due to disappointing UK economic data. Retail Sales in October fell by 0.7%, as shoppers held back spending ahead of the UK government’s new budget.
This decline in consumer activity, along with a weaker-than-expected flash S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for November, put pressure on the Pound. Meanwhile, the PMI dropped below the 50.0 threshold, signaling a slowdown in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
However, the Pound is showing signs of recovery, supported by growing market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy.
Traders believe the BoE may keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75% during the upcoming December meeting. Furthermore, they are pricing in a 75 basis point rate cut, bringing rates down to 4% by 2025. This outlook has helped stabilize the Pound and may encourage further gains.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor speeches from BoE officials, including Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli and external policy member Swati Dhingra, for any new guidance on the central bank’s interest rate decisions.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.25917, up 0.52%, reflecting a positive tone amid risk-on sentiment. The pair is holding above the pivot point at $1.26373, signaling potential for continued bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.26738, with further targets at $1.27143. However, failure to break higher could lead to consolidation or a pullback toward the pivot.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.25673, with key levels at $1.25394 and $1.25019 offering additional safety nets. The 50 EMA at $1.25830 reinforces the bullish structure, providing dynamic support and signaling strong upward momentum.
The RSI at 59 indicates bullish sentiment, suggesting room for further upside. Traders are eyeing an entry below $1.26040 for potential short positions, targeting $1.25552, with a stop loss at $1.26272 to manage risk.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 25, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 25, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the weaker US dollar, gold prices (XAU/USD) failed to gain ground and remain under pressure around the 2,660 level. However, the reason for its downward trend could be associated with several factors.
First, the recent nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary by US President-elect Donald Trump cleared uncertainty in the markets, boosting investor confidence and contributed to the declines in the safe-haven assets.
In addition, news of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah lifted market sentiment, driving funds away from safe-haven assets like gold. On top of that, the expectation that Trump’s policies could trigger inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates further pressured the precious metal.
US Dollar Decline and Strong Economic Data Weigh on Gold's Prospects
Despite positive US economic data, the US dollar has been trading lower on Friday. However, the downside risks for the dollar are limited as strong US economic indicators, like the preliminary S&P Global US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), have boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve might slow down its rate cuts.
As a result, traders are now pricing in a 50.9% chance of the Fed cutting rates by just a quarter point, a slight decrease from the 61.9% probability seen a week ago.
On the data front, the latest PMI data showed strong growth in the US economy. The US Composite PMI rose to 55.3 in November, marking the fastest private sector growth since April 2022.
In the meantime, the Services PMI surged to 57.0, far exceeding expectations and pointing to the strongest expansion in services since March 2022. Although the Manufacturing PMI slightly improved, it remained below 50, indicating continued contraction in the sector.
Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes are keeping Treasury yields high. These policies could lead to higher inflation, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Fed officials, like Jerome Powell, say the economy is strong and rate cuts should be careful.
Therefore, the US dollar's decline and strong economic data limit gold's potential for gains as higher Treasury yields and inflation risks from Trump's policies reduce gold's attractiveness as a safe haven. As a result, gold faces downward pressure.
Geopolitical Easing and Economic Optimism Weaken Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal
On the geopolitical front, media reports suggest that Israel and Hezbollah are close to reaching a ceasefire deal, though it hasn't been finalized yet. This news has led to reduced tensions in the region, which generally lowers the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Moreover, the ongoing optimism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's potential business-friendly policies is supporting a positive outlook for equity markets. As investors feel more confident about the economy, they tend to move away from gold, which is often sought during times of uncertainty.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have dropped 1.78%, trading at $2,668.50, as risk-on sentiment pressures the safe-haven asset. Gold is testing immediate support near $2,653.49, with stronger levels at $2,634.96 and $2,619.00 if selling momentum persists. The pivot point at $2,673.85 is acting as a key threshold for short-term price direction.
The 50 EMA at $2,683.28 currently serves as dynamic resistance, aligning with a broader bearish trend. Immediate resistance is at $2,689.52, with further hurdles at $2,705.99 and $2,720.66 if gold attempts a rebound. However, the RSI at 34 signals oversold conditions, suggesting a potential pause in bearish momentum.
A sustained break below $2,653.49 could open the door to further declines toward $2,634.96. Conversely, failure to break support may trigger a short-term bounce, targeting the $2,689.52 pivot point or higher. Traders should watch these levels closely, with $2,674 being the entry point for a sell position, targeting $2,654 with a stop loss at $2,685.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 25, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair has regained some of its earlier bullish momentum, holding steady around the 1.0492 mark and even reaching an intra-day high of 1.0501. This comes despite the mixed results from the German IFO survey.
However, the recent bearish trend in the pair can be linked to a weakening US dollar, which has lost some ground due to technical factors. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a key measure of the dollar’s strength against other major currencies, dropped to around 107.00 after peaking at a two-year high of 108.07 on Friday.
Looking ahead, the shared currency remains on shaky ground, as market uncertainty grows. However, the potential appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary has sparked concerns, with investors fearing that his selection could lead to tariff hikes, escalating into a global trade war. Such measures would likely hurt the already fragile Eurozone economy, particularly its export sector, adding pressure on the euro.
EUR/USD Recovers Amid Weaker US Dollar and Mixed Eurozone Data
Market traders are closely monitoring the EUR/USD pair, which is recovering some of its lost ground. It recently climbed to an intra-day high of 1.0501, supported by a weaker US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to around 107.00 after reaching a two-year high of 108.07, providing relief for the euro.
However, concerns linger over potential US tariff hikes under Scott Bessent, whose expected appointment as Treasury Secretary has fueled fears of a global trade war.
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane has warned that such measures could significantly disrupt the Eurozone economy.
Recent data from Europe paints a mixed picture. Germany’s IFO Business Sentiment Index for November showed a slight decline in business morale, while expectations for the next six months held relatively steady.
Meanwhile, the Flash PMI data for November revealed continued challenges, with both the services and manufacturing sectors contracting.
New orders have now declined for six straight months, creating a stagflationary environment, according to analysts. Despite this, the euro has shown resilience, recovering from earlier lows.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane added to the positive sentiment by suggesting that inflation control could be achieved next year, making restrictive policies unnecessary afterward. This outlook, combined with the euro’s current recovery momentum, gives traders cautious optimism for the EUR/USD’s near-term performance.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04778, down 0.61%, as the dollar strengthens amid broader risk-off sentiment. The pair is holding below the pivot point at $1.05203, signaling further bearish potential. Immediate resistance stands at $1.04901, with key levels at $1.05625 and $1.06071 likely to act as significant barriers if the euro attempts a rebound.
On the downside, immediate support is at $1.03854, followed by stronger levels at $1.03489. A decisive break below $1.03854 could expose EUR/USD to further declines, potentially testing the $1.03400 area. The 50 EMA at $1.05197 is adding to selling pressure, reinforcing the bearish structure.
The RSI at 50 indicates neutral momentum, providing room for further moves in either direction. Traders are closely watching the $1.04893 entry point for potential short positions, with a target of $1.04366 and a stop loss at $1.05209.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Nov 22, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The global market has been showing positive signs, with the S&P 500 reaching impressive levels, hitting around 5,963. Despite worries about inflation and slower-than-expected rate cuts, the index has been on a strong upward trajectory. This surge could be linked to growing investor optimism about a potential rate cut in December.
Meanwhile, people are also feeling hopeful about the potential economic boost from a possible Trump administration, which seems to be giving investors confidence. Besides this, the latest jobless claims data has been solid, and many see this as a good sign for corporate profits, keeping the index on an upward path.
US Dollar Strength and Fed Rate Expectations Create Mixed Outlook for S&P 500
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been on an upward trend and is currently trading near 107.00, just below its highest level of the year. This increase followed the release of the previous week's Initial Jobless Claims data, which showed a slight decrease in jobless claims.
Futures traders are now predicting a 57.8% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% in December, a drop from 72.2% last week. Traders are also looking forward to the upcoming US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on Friday for further market direction.
The recent PMI data showed a slight contraction in the private sector, with the Judo Bank PMI Composite Output Index dropping to 49.4 in November from 50.2 in October. This marks the second contraction in three months.
However, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 213,000 for the week ending November 15, which was lower than expected and better than the previous week's revised data. This gave the US dollar some support, especially as Fed officials have expressed cautious remarks about interest rate cuts.
Furthermore, the Reuters poll shows that most economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 0.25% in December, but they predict smaller cuts in 2025 due to concerns over inflation from President-elect Trump's policies.
Whereas, some Fed officials have suggested that more rate cuts are necessary, they want to proceed carefully to avoid making moves too quickly. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also downplayed the chances of immediate rate cuts, pointing to the strong economy and ongoing inflationary pressures.
Therefore, the US dollar's strength and expectations of slower rate cuts could create uncertainty for the S&P 500, as higher rates may pressure corporate earnings. However, the strong labor market and resilient economy may continue to support investor confidence in the index.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The SPX index is trading at $5,948.70, up 0.53% on the day, as the market shows signs of sustained upward momentum. The immediate resistance at $6,017.29 is within reach, with additional targets at $6,056.54. On the downside, immediate support is at $5,926.35, followed by key levels at $5,838.15 and $5,808.52, forming a solid base for potential pullbacks.
The pivot point at $5,987.87 serves as a critical threshold for continued bullish momentum. A decisive move above this level could propel the index further into resistance territory, while a breach below would signal caution.
The 50-day EMA, currently at $5,939.36, is providing dynamic support, reinforcing the index's underlying strength. Traders are advised to consider entry points above $5,925 with a target of $6,000 and a stop-loss at $5,882.
A breakout above $6,017.29 could drive the index toward $6,056.54, though short-term corrections remain possible if broader market sentiment shifts.
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