GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair gained strong upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 1.2691 as the US Dollar weakened. The greenback’s decline gave the British Pound a boost, allowing it to extend its recent gains.
Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounds the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook. Although markets expect a gradual rate-cutting cycle this year, stronger-than-expected economic data has cast doubt on those projections.
As a result, the Pound continues to find support, with investors weighing the possibility of a more cautious approach from the BoE. If economic data remains robust, policymakers may delay aggressive easing, potentially providing further strength to GBP/USD.
On the flip side, uncertainty around US economic performance and Federal Reserve policy will continue to influence the pair’s direction in the coming sessions. Traders will keep a close eye on upcoming UK and US data releases for fresh cues.
Bank of England's Rate-Cutting Outlook and Economic Data Impact on GBP/USD
On the GBP front, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to follow a moderate rate-cutting cycle this year. However, recent UK economic data has made traders rethink their expectations.
Strong Retail Sales, hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, and solid wage growth in the last three months of 2023 have led investors to reduce their bets on aggressive rate cuts.
Despite this, money markets still anticipate two more rate cuts this year after the BoE lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% earlier this month.
Analysts at TD Securities, however, predict the BoE will cut rates four more times in 2024, citing risks such as potential trade tariffs if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election.
Yet, they have pushed their forecast for the next rate cut from March to May due to stronger-than-expected UK economic data. The uncertainty around monetary policy continues to impact the GBP/USD pair, as traders closely watch for signals from the central bank.
Looking ahead, speeches from BoE policymakers, including Clare Lombardelli, Swati Dhingra, and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden on Monday, could provide fresh insights into the central bank’s stance.
US Dollar Weakens as Soft Services Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar edged lower as weak services sector data raised expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June.
This decline was mainly triggered by the US preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February, which showed a significant slowdown in business activity.
The Composite PMI rose at a slower pace, increasing only to 50.4 from 52.7 in January, with services sector activity unexpectedly contracting. The Services PMI fell to 49.7, dipping below the 50 mark for the first time in 25 months.
Economists had expected services to expand slightly. The report pointed to political uncertainty, including concerns over federal spending cuts and their potential impact on growth and inflation, as key factors behind the slowdown.
In contrast, the Manufacturing PMI showed positive signs, expanding to 51.6 in February from 51.2 in January, exceeding expectations. This growth in the manufacturing sector is seen as a result of US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, which aimed to boost local production.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on key data this week, including US Durable Goods Orders and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which could provide further clues on the Fed’s next move.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.26401, showing a slight upward movement, maintaining support above the pivot point at $1.26211. This level is crucial as it is reinforced by the 50 EMA at $1.26244, which is acting as dynamic support.
The technical outlook remains bullish as long as GBP/USD stays above this level. A break above the immediate resistance at $1.26896 could propel the pair toward the next resistance at $1.27569, with a potential extension to $1.28233.
On the downside, if prices fall below the pivot point, immediate support is at $1.25660, followed by $1.25087 and $1.24528. A break below the 50 EMA would signal a bearish reversal, increasing selling pressure. However, the overall outlook remains bullish as long as GBP/USD trades above $1.26211 and the 50 EMA.
Traders should watch for a decisive breakout above $1.26896 for a bullish continuation, while a drop below $1.26211 may indicate a bearish pullback.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair slipped to the 1.0470 level, facing renewed selling pressure after the release of the latest Eurozone PMI data.
The Hamburg Commercial Bank's (HCOB) preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for February indicated that overall business activity in the Eurozone expanded at a slower-than-expected pace, weighing on the Euro.
In the meantime, the Composite PMI stood at 50.2, slightly below the anticipated 50.5 reading. While the services sector showed growth, its expansion pace was weaker than the previous release.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector continued to struggle, though the rate of contraction slowed. HCOB’s Chief Economist, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, commented that economic output in the Eurozone remains stagnant, with sluggish manufacturing only marginally compensated by weak services growth.
Furthermore, the political uncertainties in France and concerns over US trade policies added to the Euro’s woes.
Apart from this, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to find comfort in the PMI data, as steady growth alone is insufficient to ease concerns about the region’s economic trajectory. Market participants have fully priced in three rate cuts from the ECB this year, following the central bank’s recent 25 basis point reduction in the Deposit Facility rate to 2.75%.
US Dollar Strength and Market Movers Impacting EUR/USD
On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair is also under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed from 106.30 to 106.65, erasing some of its earlier losses.
However, the losses in US dollar was driven by improved market sentiment as investors reassessed former US President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
While Trump had previously imposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports, market participants believe his tariff strategy may not be as aggressive as initially feared.
Moreover, European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic revealed that the US has shown some openness to negotiating tariff reductions. These developments have offered temporary relief to global trade partners, reducing the potential for economic disruptions.
Meanwhile, growing hopes for a Russia-Ukraine truce have also pressured the US Dollar, as Trump has signaled a willingness to engage in further negotiations to end the war, with potential sanctions relief for Russia in return.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains cautious about inflation risks, particularly in light of Trump’s economic policies. Fed officials continue to maintain a restrictive stance, reinforcing the USD’s resilience.
Investors now await the release of the US S&P Global PMI data for February, due at 14:45 GMT, which could provide further direction for the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.04959, showing minimal movement but maintaining a slightly bearish stance. The pair is hovering just above the key pivot point at $1.04663, which is a crucial support level to watch.
As long as prices stay above this pivot, a bullish reversal is possible, with immediate resistance at $1.05205.
A break above this resistance could propel the pair towards the next targets at $1.05563 and $1.05920, indicating potential upward momentum.
On the downside, if EUR/USD drops below the pivot point at $1.04663, bearish sentiment is likely to strengthen.
The first support to watch is at $1.04003, followed by $1.03565 and $1.03162, marking key retracement zones.
These levels could attract buying interest, but a break below them would confirm a bearish continuation.
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.04305 is currently acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the potential for a bullish rebound. However, if the price falls below the 50 EMA, it could signal further downside risk.
The technical outlook suggests a strategic entry point to buy above $1.04663, targeting a take profit at $1.05434 and setting a stop loss at $1.04149 to manage risk effectively.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 21, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) retreated from its all-time high of $2,954 reached on Thursday, dropping over 1% to trade around $2,925 at the time of writing on Friday.
Despite this pullback, the precious metal remains well above the $2,930 level, supported by a mix of economic data and geopolitical developments.
Gold came under pressure as economic data from the Eurozone indicated a slowdown in business activity. Reports from S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) showed that the services sector contracted further in February.
France's preliminary Services PMI dropped to 44.5, falling short of the 48.9 estimate. Similar declines were observed in Germany and across the Eurozone, fueling concerns about economic weakness in the region.
Looking ahead, market attention shifts to the US preliminary S&P Global PMI for February, with the services sector expected to tick up slightly to 53.0 from 52.9 in January. Hence, the stronger-than-expected data could further impact gold prices by boosting the US Dollar.
Strong US Dollar and Fed’s Cautious Stance Keep Gold Under Pressure
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains strong near 106.50, keeping gold under pressure. The greenback gained support as US jobless claims rose to 219,000, exceeding expectations.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials stayed cautious on inflation, with Governor Adriana Kugler stating that price stability still has "some way to go."
On the other hand, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned about stagflation risks, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said rate cuts are possible this year, depending on economic data.
The latest FOMC meeting minutes showed the Fed remains cautious, stressing the need for clear signs of lower inflation before cutting rates.
Therefore, the firm US Dollar and cautious Fed stance on inflation limit gold’s upside, as higher jobless claims and stagflation concerns add uncertainty, reducing gold’s appeal amid expectations of delayed rate cuts.
Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainty Provide Support for Gold
On the geopolitical front, the ongoing trade tension in the global market also played a role in the gold’s movement. The Trump administration signaled possible sanctions relief for Russia in ongoing negotiations over the Ukraine conflict.
Besides, trade tensions resurfaced as President Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports starting in April, alongside existing auto tariffs. These developments have fueled uncertainty in global markets, providing underlying support for gold.
Despite the recent pullback, gold continues to find support from geopolitical risks and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Traders will closely monitor upcoming economic data and central bank commentary for further direction. If US economic indicators show strength, gold may face additional pressure, but lingering inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainties are likely to keep the metal well-supported above the $2,930 level.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,928.20, up 0.06% for the session, reflecting a cautiously bullish sentiment. The price is holding above the crucial pivot point at $2,916.73, which serves as a key support level, reinforcing the bullish bias.
As long as gold stays above this pivot, the upward trendline remains intact, suggesting further gains are likely.
The first resistance to watch is at $2,955.49, followed by $2,978.00 and the psychological level of $3,001.64. Breaking above these levels could open the door to new highs, driven by continued bullish momentum.
Conversely, if gold falls below the pivot point at $2,916.73, it may face selling pressure, with the first support at $2,892.98. A further decline could target $2,865.06 and $2,833.80, marking significant retracement levels.
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,916.18 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
From a technical perspective, maintaining positions above the pivot point favors buyers, while a break below this level could shift the sentiment to bearish.
The recommended entry point is to buy above $2,917, with a take profit at $2,955 and a stop loss at $2,896 to manage risk effectively.
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- S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Feb 21, 2025
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Feb 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the latest trading session, the S&P 500 (SPX) Index struggled to halt its bearish trend, remaining under pressure around the 6,117 level and hitting an intra-day low of 6,084. The downward momentum was driven by cautious investor sentiment amid economic uncertainties and shifting Federal Reserve expectations.
Stronger US Dollar and Fed’s Cautious Stance Keep S&P 500 Under Pressure
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained strong, with the Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 106.50, despite higher-than-expected jobless claims rising to 219,000.
However, weak economic data usually pressures a currency, the USD gained support as investors sought safety amid uncertainty. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious stance on inflation, signaling that interest rates may stay higher for longer, which further boosted the greenback.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also raised concerns about stagflation risks, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested that rate cuts remain possible this year, depending on upcoming economic data.
Meanwhile, the recent FOMC meeting minutes revealed the Fed's cautious approach, reinforcing expectations that interest rate reductions may be delayed. As a result, the S&P 500 faced selling pressure, as higher interest rate concerns dampened investor sentiment.
Impact of S&P Global PMI Data on the US Dollar and Equities
Moving ahead, the latest S&P Global PMI data for February played a crucial role in market movements. Investors closely watched the preliminary US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which offered insights into economic activity.
The Manufacturing PMI was expected to edge higher from 51.2 to 51.5, while the Services PMI was anticipated to rise from 52.9 to 53.0.
However, the stronger-than-expected services sector performance could provide some support to the US Dollar, adding pressure on equities, including the S&P 500. However, if the Services PMI unexpectedly dips below 50, signaling economic contraction, the market could witness a shift in sentiment.
Apart from this, concerns about rising input costs in the service sector and a resilient labor market could reinforce expectations of a “higher for longer” Federal Reserve stance, further limiting the upside for stocks.
Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Uncertainty Weigh on Market Sentiment
Apart from economic data, geopolitical factors also played a role in the S&P 500’s decline. The global trade environment remains uncertain, with potential tariff policies adding pressure on financial markets.
Former US President Donald Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports starting in April, alongside continued auto tariffs. These developments fueled concerns about trade tensions, leading to increased market volatility.
Despite the ongoing pressure, traders are closely monitoring upcoming economic releases and central bank commentary for further direction. If US economic indicators continue to show resilience, the S&P 500 may struggle to recover in the near term.
However, any signs of easing inflationary pressures or a shift in Fed policy expectations could provide temporary relief to the index.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at $6,117.51, slightly down by 0.01%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Despite the minor decline, the index remains above the key pivot point at $6,093.87, maintaining a bullish outlook as long as it holds above this level.
The pivot point is a crucial support zone, bolstered by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $6,057.00, which is providing dynamic support.
If the S&P 500 continues to trade above the pivot point, it is likely to target the immediate resistance at $6,128.99.
Breaking above this resistance could fuel further bullish momentum towards the next resistance levels at $6,171.70 and $6,219.27. These levels are significant as they mark potential breakout zones that could lead to new highs.
On the flip side, if the index falls below the pivot point at $6,093.87, it could encounter selling pressure, pushing it down to the immediate support at $6,049.53.
A break below this level would expose the next support zones at $6,008.89 and $5,969.55. These supports are critical in preventing a deeper correction and maintaining the long-term bullish trend.
From a strategic perspective, the recommended entry point is to buy above $6,094, targeting a take profit at $6,172 while setting a stop loss at $6,049 to manage downside risk. This approach aligns with the bullish sentiment supported by the upward trendline and the 50 EMA.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its upward trend and hit an all-time high of $2,954 during the European session on Thursday.
The surge came as investors worried that US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could lead to a global trade war, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Apart from this, US Treasury bond yields continued to drop, making the US Dollar weaker and further supporting gold prices.
Despite this rally, gold’s gains might slow down as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish meeting minutes confirmed that interest rates will remain high for an extended period.
This could limit new buying activity, especially since gold is already in slightly overbought territory. However, the overall trend remains bullish, and the precious metal is likely to continue its upward momentum in the coming weeks.
Gold Rises as US Dollar Weakens Amid Trade Tensions and Fed Caution
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar is struggling to stop its losses as US Treasury bond yields take another dip. This weakness in the dollar is helping Gold (XAU/USD) stay strong.
Moreover, US President Donald Trump announced that he will impose heavy tariffs on several products next month or even sooner. This has increased fears of rising trade tensions, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Trump aims to abolish the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and shift the tax burden to outsiders.
However, Trump also mentioned that a new trade deal with China is possible, which could ease some concerns.
On the flip side, the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes from its January meeting revealed that officials are cautious about making any interest rate changes due to uncertainty in the economy.
Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that while inflation has eased, it remains high, and the path to the 2% target may be unpredictable.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also stated that inflation is still excessive, and interest rates can only drop once inflation comes down further. Despite these remarks, the US dollar failed to gain strength, keeping gold well-supported.
Looking ahead, traders will keep an eye on Thursday’s US economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Speeches from key Federal Reserve members could also impact the market.
On Friday, global PMI data will provide fresh insights into economic conditions worldwide, which could influence gold’s next move.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,945.47, inching up by 0.02%, as the metal maintains its bullish stance. The price action remains above the key pivot point at $2,934.03, suggesting continued buying interest.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,911.04 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing positive sentiment. The market’s attention is focused on the immediate resistance at $2,966.23, with a breakout above this level potentially driving gold towards $2,983.93 and $3,001.64.
Conversely, on the downside, $2,893.87 serves as initial support, with the next safety nets at $2,877.33 and $2,853.75. A break below $2,934.03 could shift momentum, triggering short-term selling pressure. However, the broader uptrend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 50-day EMA.
From a technical perspective, the bullish outlook is supported by the ongoing formation of higher highs and higher lows, in line with the ascending trendline. Traders are eyeing a decisive close above $2,966.23 to confirm continued bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to sustain above $2,934.03 may prompt a corrective pullback.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – Feb 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Thursday, the USD/JPY currency pair extended its downward trend, trading below the 150.20 level. However, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained strength as expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continued to rise.
This sentiment was reinforced by the surge in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, which reached their highest levels in over a decade, narrowing the rate differential with other major economies and boosting demand for the Yen.
Apart from this, a wave of risk aversion swept through global markets following former US President Donald Trump's renewed tariff threats. This further supported the safe-haven JPY, leading to increased selling pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) faced some weakness despite the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance, which could provide support to the pair in the near term.
BoJ Policy Outlook, Wage Growth, and US Trade Tensions Boost Yen Strength
On the Japanese economic front, BoJ board member Hajime Takata emphasized on Wednesday that Japan's real interest rates remain deeply negative.
He also suggested that the central bank may need to adjust its monetary policy further if economic forecasts hold, strengthening the case for additional rate hikes.
This follows Japan’s robust Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released earlier in the week, reinforcing expectations of BoJ tightening.
However, the Reuters poll indicated that over 65% of economists anticipate the BoJ raising its key interest rate to 0.75% in the third quarter. Besides, labor negotiations are expected to result in a wage increase of 5.00%, up from the previous forecast of 4.75%.
The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year JGB surged to its highest level since November 2009, further bolstering the Yen’s strength.
At the same time, US trade policy developments also played a key role in influencing market sentiment. Trump’s statement on Wednesday about imposing new tariffs next month or sooner raised fears of a global trade war, driving investors toward safe-haven assets such as the JPY.
In response, Japan's Trade Minister Yoji Muto is reportedly planning a visit to the US in March to seek exemptions from potential tariffs on steel and automobiles.
Fed Caution on Rate Cuts Keeps USD Under Pressure
From the US perspective, the Federal Reserve’s January FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers expressing caution about future rate cuts.
Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson highlighted the resilience of the US economy, strong labor market conditions, and persistent inflationary pressures.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee echoed these sentiments, stating that while inflation has eased, it remains too high for the Fed to consider immediate rate cuts.
Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor upcoming US economic data, including Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches from key Fed officials.
These factors will likely influence the USD/JPY pair’s next moves, though for now, the Yen remains in control amid growing expectations of BoJ tightening and global risk-off sentiment.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading at 150.382, down by 0.02%, reflecting a cautious bearish sentiment. The pair is currently trading below the pivotal level of 151.024, signaling potential downward pressure. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 152.34 is acting as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Immediate resistance is located at 152.329, followed by 153.242 and 154.684. A breakout above 152.329 would invalidate the bearish scenario, paving the way for a bullish reversal towards higher resistance levels.
On the downside, initial support lies at 149.621, with further safety nets at 148.650 and 147.760. A break below 149.621 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially accelerating selling pressure towards the lower support zones. The current price action suggests a consolidation phase, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout for directional clarity.
From a technical perspective, the bearish case is supported by the descending trendline and the 50-day EMA acting as a resistance barrier. However, a reversal above 151.024 would shift the momentum to bullish, invalidating the short-term bearish outlook.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair extended its bullish rally and remained well-bid around the 0.6376 level, hitting an intra-day high of 0.6380.
The bullish momentum was supported by strong Australian employment data, which showed a rise in jobs, boosting confidence in the economy.
Moreover, China’s decision to keep its interest rates steady provided further support, as Australia’s economy is closely tied to China due to trade relations. These factors helped the Aussie Dollar hold its gains against the US Dollar.
However, the upside for AUD/USD was limited as market sentiment turned cautious. Investors grew concerned over fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, raising fears of potential trade tensions.
Meanwhile, the latest FOMC minutes from January’s meeting signaled a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, with officials hesitant about cutting interest rates too soon. This strengthened the US Dollar and kept AUD/USD from rising further.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 107.00, reflecting the USD’s resilience. US Treasury yields also remained elevated, with the 2-year note at 4.26% and the 10-year note at 4.52%, signaling strong demand for US assets.
These factors created a challenging environment for AUD/USD, keeping gains in check despite initial strength.
Stronger US Dollar and Trade Tensions Limit AUD/USD Gains
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained strong, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 107.00.
This strength was supported by high US Treasury yields, with the 2-year note at 4.26% and the 10-year note at 4.52%.
The steady demand for US assets kept the USD firm, making it difficult for the AUD/USD pair to extend its gains.
On the data front, the latest Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting Minutes confirmed that interest rates would remain unchanged for now. Policymakers stressed the need to monitor inflation, job growth, and economic activity before making any rate cuts.
Several Fed officials, including Austan Goolsbee and Mary Daly, noted that while inflation has eased, it is still too high for immediate policy changes. This cautious stance strengthened the USD, limiting upward movement in AUD/USD.
Apart from this, former US President Donald Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports starting in April, along with maintaining auto tariffs at the same rate.
This raised concerns about global trade tensions, weighing on market sentiment. As a result, the AUD struggled to gain momentum despite earlier support from positive domestic employment data and China’s stable interest rate decision.
AUD/USD Struggles Amid RBA Rate Cut and US Trade Concerns
On the AUD front, the release of domestic employment data helped the Australian Dollar hold its gains against the US Dollar. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1% in January from 4.0% in December, in line with expectations.
Meanwhile, employment increased by 44K jobs, higher than the forecast of 20K but lower than December’s revised 60K.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that the labor market remains strong and that the central bank is closely monitoring inflation before making any major policy changes.
However, the AUD/USD pair faced pressure after the RBA unexpectedly cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking its first rate cut in four years.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the economic impact of high interest rates but warned that inflation remains a concern.
While markets expect further rate cuts, the RBA has not confirmed any future decisions, creating uncertainty for the AUD.
Furthermore, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept its Loan Prime Rates unchanged, providing limited support for the Aussie Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63623, down by 0.01%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The pair is currently holding above the key pivot point at $0.63343, indicating a potential rebound if support remains intact.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63172 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing a cautiously bullish outlook. Immediate resistance is located at $0.64057, with a breakout above this level paving the way towards $0.64324 and $0.64606.
A successful move above $0.64057 could trigger renewed buying interest, pushing prices higher in the short term.
On the downside, initial support lies at $0.63067, with further safety nets at $0.62703 and $0.62331. A break below $0.63343 would shift the momentum to bearish, potentially triggering selling pressure towards the lower support levels.
The current price action suggests consolidation within a tight range, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout for directional clarity.
From a technical perspective, the bullish case is supported by the ascending trendline and the 50-day EMA. However, a failure to maintain support above $0.63343 could expose the pair to a corrective pullback.
For now, AUD/USD remains cautiously bullish, but a close watch on key support and resistance levels is advisable.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to gain much traction and remained sluggish around the 1.2607 level. However, the possible reason for this slow movement could be the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy, as traders awaited key inflation data.
Investors were cautious, trying to gauge whether the Bank of England (BoE) might adjust its interest rate policy based on new economic signals.
On the data front, the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January brought some surprises. Following this data, the British Pound found some strength against major currencies.
However, the rise in inflation often leads traders to speculate that the BoE might keep interest rates higher for longer to control price increases. As a result, GBP saw some support, even though overall market conditions remained cautious.
GBP/USD Reacts to Higher-Than-Expected UK Inflation Data Amid BoE Caution
On the GBP front, the release of the United Kingdom's (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January showed higher-than-expected inflation, which provided some support to the GBP/USD currency pair. The annual headline CPI rose by 3%, beating the 2.8% forecast and up from 2.5% in December.
The core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, also showed solid growth at 3.7%, matching expectations but improving from 3.2% previously. However, on a monthly basis, inflation eased slightly by 0.1%, a slower decline than anticipated.
Despite the positive inflation data, the Bank of England (BoE) remains cautious. The services sector, a key focus for the BoE, saw inflation rise to 5% from 4.4% in December, signaling persistent price pressures. However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey downplayed concerns, suggesting that the rise in inflation might not last.
He believes that a sluggish economy could help control inflation and reiterated that while energy prices could push inflation higher in the short term, a gradual cooling of prices is still expected.
Looking ahead, investors are keeping an eye on the upcoming UK Retail Sales data for January and the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February, which are due on Friday.
These reports could provide fresh clues on the UK's economic health and potentially influence the direction of the GBP/USD currency pair.
GBP/USD Rises as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Fed Minutes
On the other hand, the losses in the GBP/USD currency pair could be short-lived as the US Dollar lost traction and edged lower amid investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting minutes.
Traders await clues on how long the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. The Fed paused its rate cuts in January after reducing rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing that further adjustments would depend on inflation progress and labor market conditions.
At the same time, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly supported keeping monetary policy “restrictive” until inflation continues to slow. Investors remain focused on the FOMC minutes, set to be released at 19:00 GMT, for any signs of future rate changes.
The Fed's cautious stance has kept the US Dollar under pressure, allowing the Pound to gain strength. However, any unexpected hawkish signals in the minutes could boost the US Dollar, potentially limiting GBP/USD gains.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.26222, dipping -0.01%, as markets remain cautious amid shifting sentiment around the U.S. dollar.
The pair is hovering just above its pivot point at $1.25906, which serves as a crucial level—holding above this keeps the short-term bullish case intact, while a break lower could shift momentum back in favor of sellers.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.26667, and a breakout above this level could push the pair toward $1.27128, with an extended move targeting $1.27569 if bullish momentum builds.
However, if the pound fails to sustain its footing, support at $1.25209 could be tested. A breach below this level would expose the next downside targets at $1.24528 and $1.23883, where buyers may look to re-enter.
From a technical perspective, the 50-EMA at $1.24963 remains below the current price, reinforcing near-term bullish sentiment.
The overall trend, however, is delicate, with traders closely watching whether the pound can hold above the pivot zone. The broader picture suggests that while buyers have an edge, a failure to clear resistance levels could invite renewed selling pressure.
For traders, a buy entry above $1.25899 appears favorable, with a take-profit target at $1.26677, while a stop loss at $1.25537 helps mitigate downside risk.
The pound’s next directional move hinges on its ability to sustain above $1.25906, as a failure to do so may trigger increased volatility.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 19, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) regained its bullish trend and edged higher around the 2,943 level. The main reason for this upward movement is the market's cautious approach ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, which could give hints about the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans.
Investors are hesitant, waiting for more clarity on whether the Fed will cut rates, which directly impacts the US Dollar (USD). Hence, the weaker USD generally boosts gold prices since it becomes cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
Meanwhile, expectations of further rate cuts are keeping the USD under pressure, supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Moreover, the ongoing concerns over a potential global trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump's tariff plans are boosting the safe-haven appeal of gold.
However, the absence of strong selling pressure also indicates that gold might continue to rise. As a result, even if gold experiences a temporary pullback, it is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity, keeping prices well-supported.
Gold Gains Strength as US Dollar Weakens Amid Economic Uncertainty
As we mentioned above, gold is rising again, and this is due to the US dollar losing traction in the wake of fresh economic and political developments. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, has dropped to around 107.00.
At the same time, US Treasury yields stand at 4.29% for the 2-year note and 4.55% for the 10-year note. This decline in the dollar is making gold more attractive to investors, as a weaker USD reduces the cost of gold for international buyers, increasing demand.
Another factor supporting gold’s bullish trend is uncertainty over US interest rates and global trade policies. Federal Reserve officials have given mixed signals about future rate cuts, with some emphasizing the need to keep rates steady due to persistent inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also noted that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, especially with strong job growth and solid economic performance.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats, including a 25% duty on foreign cars and higher taxes on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals, have raised concerns about global trade tensions. This uncertainty is pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
Besides this, the weak US retail sales data and economic shifts in China are influencing market sentiment. On the data front, the latest report showed that US retail sales fell by 0.9% in January, a sharper decline than expected, signaling slowing consumer spending.
In China, President Xi Jinping held a meeting with top business leaders, including Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma, highlighting Beijing’s renewed focus on supporting private businesses for economic recovery.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is trading at $2,933.25, edging up +0.01% as investors assess the next directional move. The metal remains within a well-defined range, with $2,912.88 acting as a pivotal level.
Staying above this level keeps the bullish case intact, with buyers eyeing $2,939.98 as the next hurdle. A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for a move toward $2,962.85, with an extended push targeting $2,985.02.
On the downside, immediate support at $2,893.87 is crucial—if this level gives way, expect increased selling pressure toward $2,877.33, followed by $2,853.75 as a deeper floor.
The 50-EMA at $2,902.25 is catching up to price action, signaling that bulls are maintaining control. However, failure to sustain above the pivot at $2,912.88 could shift momentum in favor of the bears.
From a trade setup perspective, buyers may find an opportunity above $2,913, with a target of $2,939 while keeping a stop loss at $2,893 to manage downside risk.
Gold’s resilience hinges on how it interacts with resistance zones, as a sustained break above could invite fresh buying interest. Conversely, slipping below $2,893.87 may accelerate bearish momentum, pressuring prices lower.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 19, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to maintain its bullish rally and turned bearish around the 1.0421 level, hitting an intra-day low of 1.0419.
The downward trend was mainly due to the strengthening US Dollar, which initially gained support from investor confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high for a longer period.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against major currencies, recovered to 107.10 on Tuesday before dropping again to around 106.90 on Wednesday.
Despite some positive momentum for the US Dollar, its strength faded as it struggled to extend its recovery. Investors are now convinced that the Fed will not cut interest rates anytime soon, reinforcing expectations that rates will remain steady at 4.25%-4.50% through the March, May, and June meetings.
This cautious stance by the Fed has created mixed signals in the market, leading to fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair managed to recover slightly, ticking higher near the 1.0460 level. The overall market sentiment remains uncertain, with traders closely watching economic data and Fed statements for further direction. While the US Dollar still holds a strong position, its inability to sustain gains has allowed the euro to regain some ground.
ECB's Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on Euro, Limiting EUR/USD Gains
On the European front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates three times this year as some policymakers see inflation falling below the 2% target.
Recently, the ECB reduced its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% but did not commit to any fixed monetary easing path. This uncertainty has kept the Euro’s strength in check, balancing out the gains against the struggling US dollar.
Therefore, the ECB’s expected rate cuts weaken the Euro by reducing its appeal to investors. This limits EUR/USD gains, balancing the pair as the US dollar also struggles due to Fed’s steady rate outlook.
Fed's Cautious Stance Limits USD Strength, Supporting EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been under pressure, allowing the EUR/USD pair to gain slightly. Despite this, investors remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range for longer.
The CME FedWatch tool suggests no rate changes are expected in the Fed's March, May, and June meetings. This cautious approach from the Fed has limited the dollar’s strength, preventing it from making a solid recovery.
Apart from this, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated at a banking conference that monetary policy needs to stay “restrictive” until inflation shows further signs of improvement. She emphasized being cautious before making any policy adjustments, especially with the labor market and economy still strong.
Daly also commented on the uncertainty around President Trump’s economic policies, stating that their impact on growth, labor supply, and inflation will only be clear once more details emerge.
Investors are now waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the January meeting, scheduled for release at 19:00 GMT, to gain further insights into the Fed’s stance.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04566, posting a modest gain of +0.01% as traders assess the dollar’s next move amid shifting macroeconomic conditions.
The pivot point at $1.04551 is the key inflection level—holding above this keeps the short-term bullish case intact, while a sustained drop below could invite further weakness.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.05205, with a break above potentially paving the way toward $1.05563 and further extension toward $1.05920 if bullish momentum strengthens.
On the downside, support at $1.03922 serves as the first line of defense; if breached, it could accelerate selling pressure toward $1.03321, with $1.02854 acting as a deeper floor.
Technical indicators show a mixed picture. The 50-EMA at $1.04033 is trending slightly below price action, reinforcing a near-term bullish tilt.
However, the broader trend remains fragile, with the euro still struggling to decisively break resistance zones. A failure to maintain above the pivot point could see renewed pressure on the pair, especially if the dollar gains strength.
For traders, a buy entry above $1.04405 offers an opportunity, with a take-profit target at $1.05199 while keeping a stop loss at $1.04023 to manage downside risk.
The euro’s next move hinges on whether it can maintain support and challenge resistance levels. Short-term upside remains intact, but a break below $1.04551 could shift momentum back in favor of the bears.
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