Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair extended its upward momentum, remaining well bid around the 149.97 level.
This rise in the pair comes as the Japanese Yen remains under pressure, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its position.
However, the combination of factors, including remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, US economic developments, and a risk-on market sentiment, has contributed to the yen's weakening and the USD/JPY's rise.
Bank of Japan’s Position and US Treasury Yields Weigh on the Yen
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent comments have added to the bearish outlook for the Japanese yen. He mentioned that the central bank is ready to buy more government bonds if long-term interest rates rise too quickly, indicating that the BoJ wants to keep rates low.
This has put pressure on the yen, especially as the 10-year Japanese government bond yield dropped to its lowest since February 12, which boosted the USD/JPY.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury bond yield ticked up slightly, giving more strength to the US Dollar and leading to more people moving their money away from the low-yielding yen. This combination has supported the rising trend in USD/JPY.
Risk-On Sentiment and US Tariff Concerns
Apart from this, the positive risk sentiment in the market has also played a major role in the upward movement of USD/JPY. Despite ongoing trade tensions, including concerns about US President Donald Trump's potential tariffs on imports from the European Union and other countries, the broader market sentiment remains risk-on, supporting demand for higher-yielding currencies like the USD.
On the US front, Federal Reserve officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, have indicated that progress has been made on inflation, though concerns about the cooling economy continue.
Market participants have increased their expectations for rate cuts, despite the Fed's cautious stance, which has kept the USD on the defensive at times. Nonetheless, the USD remains resilient, supported by strong US economic fundamentals and higher yields.
Looking ahead, market participants are awaiting several key economic reports from Japan, including industrial production, retail sales, and Tokyo inflation data, which could provide further insights into the BoJ’s policy direction.
Besides this, the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index could provide fresh impetus for USD/JPY and influence market sentiment.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading at 149.343, up 0.01%, maintaining a bullish stance just below the Pivot Point at 149.656. The pair is showing resilience above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 149.489, indicating that buyers are still in control.
Immediate resistance is seen at 150.708, with stronger barriers at 151.483 and 152.318. A break above 149.656 could trigger bullish momentum, targeting these resistance levels.
On the downside, support is located at 149.551, with deeper cushions at 147.700 and 146.865. A dip below 149.551 could invite selling pressure, potentially leading to a retest of the support at 147.700.
If the price continues to decline, the major support at 146.865 could serve as a crucial area for buyers to defend.
The technical setup favors a bullish trend as long as USD/JPY stays above the 50 EMA at 149.489. The 4-hour chart reveals a pattern of higher lows, reflecting upward momentum.
The Pivot Point at 149.656 is a key level to watch; a break above this could solidify the bullish outlook, pushing the pair toward 150.708. Conversely, a decline below 149.551 would challenge the bullish bias, targeting 147.700.
For traders, the strategy is to Buy Above 149.893 with a Take Profit at 150.961 and a Stop Loss at 148.921.
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