EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and climbed to around 1.0912. The Euro (EUR) is gaining strength against the US Dollar (USD) despite ongoing trade tensions between the United States and the European Union.
Investors are closely watching key economic data releases, including Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) for February and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March, which could further influence the pair’s movement.
EUR/USD Rises Despite Trade Tensions and Recession Concerns
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a 200% tariff on European wine, cognac, and other alcohol in response to the EU’s planned tariffs on American whiskey and other goods starting in April.
The EU’s move came after Trump imposed a 25% duty on steel and aluminum imports. Despite these trade tensions, the Euro (EUR) is holding strong, and EUR/USD continues to rise as investors focus on upcoming economic data.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that higher US tariffs could push Germany, Europe’s largest economy, into another recession.
He said on Thursday that if the tariffs go into effect, Germany might face a recession this year. Despite these concerns, the Euro (EUR) remains resilient, and EUR/USD continues to rise as investors focus on upcoming economic data.
Fed Rate Cut Speculations Cap Dollar Gains
On the other hand, the downside for EUR/USD is limited due to growing concerns about the US economy. Analysts at Barclays have updated their Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut forecast, now expecting two cuts in June and September instead of just one.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 75% chance of a rate cut by June, signaling market confidence in upcoming easing, which supports the Euro's strength and keeps EUR/USD rising.
Hence, the weaker US economic data has also contributed to speculation that the Fed may move to lower interest rates sooner rather than later. A slowdown in economic growth would put further pressure on the Greenback, potentially limiting further losses in the EUR/USD pair.
Moving forward, investors will closely monitor developments in the US-EU trade dispute, as any further escalation could intensify selling pressure on the Euro.
Moreover, upcoming economic data from both regions, including inflation reports and consumer sentiment figures, will play a crucial role in determining EUR/USD’s next move.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08339, down 0.03%, as the pair continues to face pressure amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. The euro remains on a downward trajectory, struggling to break past the pivot level at $1.08740.
A failure to reclaim this level suggests that sellers remain in control, with immediate resistance seen at $1.09314, followed by $1.09856 and $1.10365.
On the downside, the $1.08094 support level is a key area to watch. A sustained break below this threshold could accelerate losses toward $1.07650 and $1.07213, reinforcing a broader bearish trend.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08735 is acting as dynamic resistance, further limiting upside potential. A failure to close above this moving average could keep bearish sentiment intact.
For now, a break below $1.08094 could confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside likely.
Conversely, a close above $1.08740 would signal potential stabilization, opening the door for a recovery toward $1.09314.
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