Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) managed to stop its downward trend and gained momentum above the $3,030 level. However, this upward movement could be short-lived due to improved market sentiment following news about changes in US trade policy.
The Trump administration is considering easing the broad tariffs imposed on April 2 and shifting to more targeted tariffs focused on specific sectors or regions.
This shift has reduced market concerns about the possibility of widespread retaliatory tariffs, which could hurt the global economy.
While the goal of these tariffs is to bring manufacturing back to the US, experts believe that much higher tariffs, along with government subsidies, would be needed to truly reshuffle global supply chains.
Therefore, the potential easing of broad tariffs and shift to targeted tariffs could reduce market uncertainty, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal and potentially halting its upward momentum in the short term.
US Dollar Pulls Back Amid Economic Concerns and Fed Tightening Signals
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower, pulling back from its three-day winning streak and trading around 104.00.
This decline comes amid increasing concerns about a potential slowdown in the US economy, partly due to President Trump's trade policies.
However, the Greenback had briefly strengthened after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week, where he mentioned that while the labor market is strong and inflation is moving closer to the Fed's 2% target, it remains above desired levels.
This suggests that the Fed might continue tightening its monetary policy. However, overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Gold Gains Appeal Amid US Dollar Weakness and Rising Global Risks
Despite the weakness of the US dollar, gold remains a popular safe-haven asset as global economic and geopolitical risks increase.
Traders are paying close attention to the potential effects of new tariffs, changes in trade policies, and ongoing tensions with China.
This market uncertainty, along with growing demand for gold, has made the precious metal even more attractive.
At the same time, Chinese metals producer Zijin Mining Group reported record profits, thanks to rising gold and copper prices.
The company also highlighted growing global economic risks, reinforcing the idea that investors are turning to gold amid rising market uncertainty.
Despite the challenges ahead, gold’s performance will likely be influenced by the results of US trade policies and upcoming economic data.
The March US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI could offer insights into the US economy’s health, which may affect investor sentiment towards gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading slightly lower at $3,023.95, down 0.04% on the day, as investors digest shifting interest rate expectations and geopolitical headlines.
The metal is consolidating within a well-defined range, holding just above its key pivot point at $3,014.07. This zone is critical for near-term direction, as a sustained break above this level could reinforce the bullish case.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $3,033.70, acts as immediate dynamic resistance.
A break above this EMA would open the door for a retest of the first resistance at $3,033.81, followed by $3,053.86 and the upper barrier at $3,071.37. These levels align with recent swing highs and represent important technical hurdles for buyers.
On the downside, gold is finding initial support at $3,000.06. A break below this figure could trigger a deeper pullback toward $2,982.18 and $2,966.96, the latter coinciding with the lower boundary of the current ascending channel.
Despite today’s marginal decline, gold’s broader structure remains intact as long as price holds above the $3,000 psychological level.
Traders are watching closely for confirmation of direction, especially ahead of key U.S. economic data releases later this week.
A decisive move above $3,033 could spark bullish momentum toward $3,046—close to the short-term take-profit zone. Conversely, a breach below $2,999 would likely invalidate the current bullish setup.
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