GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its strong bullish rally and hit an all-time high of $2,900. However, the main reason behind this surge could be growing uncertainty in global markets after US President Donald Trump announced new trade measures. He stated that he would introduce "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Moreover, he mentioned a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the US but did not specify the exact timeline. These announcements have fueled concerns about global trade tensions, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
Moving ahead, traders are now focusing on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Powell is expected to emphasize the strength of the US economy, suggesting that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates. This could be a negative factor for gold, as lower interest rates generally boost gold prices by making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets.
Gold Remains Strong Amid US Dollar Surge and Market Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining strength, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising above 108.00. This surge comes after the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled that it might keep interest rates steady this year. The decision follows January’s jobs report, which showed slower job growth but a lower unemployment rate.
On the data front, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 143,000 in January, much lower than December’s 307,000, but the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4%. Higher-than-expected jobless claims also added some uncertainty to the labor market outlook.
Meanwhile, several Fed officials have shared mixed views on the economy. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that inconsistent government policies create uncertainty, making it difficult for the Fed to predict inflation trends.
However, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler noted that the US economy remains strong overall, though inflation progress has been uneven. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he would support rate cuts if inflation continues to improve and the labor market remains solid.
On the flip side, China’s inflation data also grabbed attention. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% annually in January, higher than December’s 0.1% increase, while producer prices continued to decline.
These developments have added to market uncertainty, keeping gold prices elevated as investors seek safe-haven assets amid global economic concerns.
Therefore, the strong US dollar and steady Fed policy typically pressure gold, but market uncertainty, trade tensions, and China’s inflation data are fueling safe-haven demand. Despite dollar strength, gold remains higher as investors hedge against economic risks and potential future policy shifts.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,878.06, down 0.02%, as it consolidates within a tight range following recent gains.
Despite the minor pullback, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,821.70 continues to act as a dynamic support level, reinforcing the broader bullish structure. The metal remains in an uptrend, with price action favoring further upside if key resistance levels are breached.
The pivot point at $2,870.28 serves as an essential reference level—holding above it keeps bullish momentum intact.
The immediate resistance sits at $2,886.25, with stronger hurdles at $2,900.69 and $2,914.05. A breakout beyond these levels could accelerate gains toward fresh highs, particularly if market sentiment remains risk-averse amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
On the downside, support is firm at $2,849.52, with deeper retracements targeting $2,833.82 and $2,820.54. A sustained drop below these levels would shift momentum in favor of sellers, potentially exposing gold to further declines.
However, given the prevailing demand for safe-haven assets, dips are likely to attract fresh buying interest.
Traders should monitor the $2,872 level, as holding above this threshold could validate a continuation toward $2,890, while a drop below $2,857 may trigger increased selling pressure.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its bullish momentum, trading around $2,860 after hitting an intraday high of $2,870. The key driver behind this surge is the escalating tension between the US and China, which has sparked concerns among investors about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
Furthermore, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its easing stance have kept US Treasury bond yields low, weakening the US dollar. Thus, the weaker dollar makes gold more attractive for investors, further fueling its price rally.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could determine gold’s next move. If the data is weaker than expected, it could strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, further supporting gold prices. Conversely, stronger-than-expected job data might boost the dollar and put some pressure on gold.
US Job Market Weakness Fuels Gold's Rally Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation
Recent US data shows that jobless claims rose to 219K from 208K, signaling a weaker job market. This has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. Lower rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive to investors.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration is more focused on lowering 10-year Treasury yields than on the Fed’s rate decisions. As a result, bond yields have dropped to their lowest levels since December, further supporting gold prices.
However, Federal Reserve officials are divided. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is not too worried about inflation, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan believes the job market is still strong, making rate cuts less likely for now. Despite this, the US dollar has struggled to gain strength, helping gold hold onto its gains.
Now, all eyes are on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. If job growth slows, gold could rise further. But a strong report might boost the dollar and push gold prices lower.
Gold Prices Surge as US-China Trade War Escalates
Apart from this, China recently imposed new tariffs on select US goods in response to President Trump’s 10% tax on Chinese imports. This move has intensified trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, raising fears of a prolonged economic conflict.
As a result, investors are shifting towards safe-haven assets like gold to protect their wealth. The uncertainty surrounding global trade policies is causing market volatility, and many fear that prolonged tensions could hurt economic growth and business stability worldwide.
Moving forward, traders will closely monitor trade developments. If tensions escalate further, gold prices may continue to rise. However, any signs of a resolution could ease market fears and limit gold’s gains. For now, gold remains well-supported by global uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,862.60, up 0.24%, as the market weighs economic uncertainty and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts. Gold remains supported by safe-haven demand amid ongoing trade tensions and expectations of rate cuts, but technical indicators suggest a pivotal level is in play.
Key Technical Levels and Trend Analysis
The pivot point at $2,870.28 serves as a critical threshold for price action. A sustained break below this level could open the door for further downside toward $2,840.79, followed by stronger support at $2,824.53 and $2,810.70. These levels could attract buyers if broader risk sentiment turns defensive.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2,882.76, with the next hurdles at $2,900.69 and $2,914.05. A close above these resistance levels would reinforce bullish momentum, potentially setting the stage for a push toward new highs.
The 50-day EMA at $2,843.26 suggests that gold remains well-supported in its current trend. However, the price is teetering around the pivot, indicating potential for short-term consolidation. If gold fails to hold $2,870, selling pressure could accelerate, leading to a sharper pullback.
The near-term outlook remains bearish below $2,870, with a recommended sell entry below this level, targeting $2,850 as a take-profit zone. A stop-loss at $2,882 is advised to mitigate risk in case of an upside breakout.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 07, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD is trading flat around 1.0400 in the European session ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 13:30 GMT. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down 0.10% at 107.60.
Economists expect the U.S. to have added 170K jobs in January, down from 256K in December. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, which should keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) on hold for the near term. A strong jobs number will support the Fed’s stance, while a weak one could spark speculation on earlier rate cuts.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in the first rate cut in June 2025. However, if the jobs report shows a softening labor market, expectations for a May rate cut could rise.
The Average Hourly Earnings data is also in focus, a key measure of wage growth and consumer spending power. Analysts predict year-over-year wage growth to slow to 3.8% from 3.9% in December, while monthly earnings to rise 0.3% in line with previous reports.
Eurozone Faces Uncertainty Amid U.S. Trade Threats
Despite EUR/USD being flat, the Euro is vulnerable to trade policy risks. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump said the Eurozone could face tariffs if they don’t buy enough American goods, escalating tensions between the two blocs.
Analysts at Macquarie noted that Trump didn’t specify the measures, but Europe is a “target-rich” zone for tariffs, especially with Germany and France in political turmoil. Any tariff escalation could hit Eurozone exports hard and growth.
Beyond trade risks, the Eurozone’s domestic economy is fragile. Concerns of stagnation have kept the European Central Bank (ECB) dovish. ECB board member Piero Cipolloni said on Thursday that there is “room to cut rates” and growth risks.
If Trump’s tariffs materialize, Cipolloni warned it could weaken the Eurozone economy. And if the U.S. imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, China could shift excess supply to European markets and create deflationary pressures.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.03746, down 0.08%, as the euro struggles to gain traction against a resilient U.S. dollar. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of key economic data, with traders assessing the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory and broader macroeconomic trends.
The pivot point at $1.03879 is a critical threshold for price action. If EUR/USD remains below this level, downside pressure is likely to persist. Immediate support is at $1.03383, with further declines potentially testing $1.02920 and $1.02467. A break below these levels would reinforce the bearish trend, increasing selling momentum.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.04339, followed by $1.04780 and $1.05222. If the pair manages to reclaim $1.03879, it could gain bullish traction, targeting these resistance levels. However, the broader trend remains weak, with selling pressure dominant below the pivot.
The 50-day EMA at $1.03549 suggests that EUR/USD is trading below key moving averages, reinforcing a bearish outlook. Short-term sentiment remains negative, with the pair struggling to gain upside momentum. If price action remains under $1.03879, further weakness is expected.
EUR/USD remains bearish below $1.03874, with a recommended sell entry at this level, targeting $1.03372 as a take-profit zone. A stop-loss at $1.04176 is advised to mitigate risk in case of a bullish reversal.
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- S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Feb 07, 2025
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Feb 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 rose 0.3% on Thursday, its third straight gain, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 125 points (-0.30%) as investors were cautious before the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
Weekly jobless claims came in at 219,000, slightly above the 214,000 expected, indicating a mild slowdown in the labor market. While private payrolls grew in January, job openings saw the largest decline in 14 months, which may delay rate cuts until at least June 2025.
Tech Stocks Face Pressure Amid AI Investment Concerns
Earnings reports were in focus with Amazon (AMZN) to report after the close. Investors were keen on the company’s AI investment plans following capital expenditure concerns among Big Tech. Alphabet (GOOG) was sold off after its 2025 outlook exceeded Wall Street estimates.
Meanwhile Eli Lilly (LLY) rose 3% on strong Zepbound demand and Yum! Brands (YUM) jumped 9% on Taco Bell sales. Ford (F) fell 7% after profit guidance missed estimates and uncertainty over US, Canada and Mexico trade talks.
Chip Stocks Slide Ahead of Key Economic Data
The semiconductor sector was under pressure with Qualcomm (QCOM) down 3% after patent licensing outlook disappointing after the Huawei contract expired. Arm Holdings (ARM) fell 3% after missing high expectations for AI-driven growth and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) plunged 24% after warning of reduced Apple (AAPL) demand for iPhone 17.
Now investors are looking to Friday’s NFP report which is expected to show 169,000 new jobs, down from 256,000 in December. A weaker print may support rate cuts later in the year while a stronger print may mean higher for longer rates and keep markets on edge.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 6083.56, up 0.36%, as the index continues its bullish momentum amid strong investor confidence. With market participants weighing Federal Reserve policy expectations and earnings results, the broader trend remains constructive.
The pivot point at 6057.69 is a key reference level for traders. A sustained move above this level strengthens the bullish outlook, with immediate resistance at 6127.64, followed by 6171.70 and 6219.27. If momentum persists, the index could target fresh highs, reinforcing optimism in equity markets.
On the downside, support lies at 6013.62, followed by 5969.55 and 5904.50. A break below these levels would signal weakness, potentially triggering a short-term pullback. However, strong buying interest near the pivot suggests continued resilience in the broader trend.
The 50-day EMA at 6057.18 acts as dynamic support, confirming the index's uptrend. As long as the price remains above this level, the bullish bias stays intact. A close below it could indicate a loss of momentum, bringing 6013.62 into focus as key support.
S&P 500 remains bullish above 6058, with a suggested buy entry at this level, targeting 6127 as a take-profit zone. A stop-loss at 6013 is recommended to manage downside risks.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – Feb 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair has recently faced some selling pressure but managed to regained its strength around 152.80 level as Japanese Yen (JPY) started to lose some of its recent gains, largely due to fears that Japan could also fall victim to US trade tariffs under President Donald Trump's policies.
This, combined with a risk-on market sentiment, has pushed the Yen lower. Moreover, a slight rebound in the US Dollar (USD) from a one-week low helped lift the USD/JPY pair back above the mid-153.00s range.
Japan's Economic Data and BoJ Policy Impact
The Japanese economy has recently shown signs of strength, with data released on Wednesday indicating an increase in real wages, further reinforcing expectations that the BoJ will hike interest rates.
This outlook is supported by comments from Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, who highlighted inflationary pressures, even though the country has not yet fully emerged from deflation.
Adding fuel to these expectations, BoJ Board Member Tamura Naoki endorsed the idea of faster interest rate hikes, suggesting a potential increase to around 1% by the latter half of fiscal 2025.
Market participants are currently pricing in a 94.8% chance that the BoJ will raise interest rates by 0.25% at its September monetary policy meeting. This would position Japan’s monetary policy tighter relative to the US, making the Yen more attractive as an investment.
Fed's Easing Bias and USD/JPY Price Action
In contrast, the US economic data has raised concerns about the health of the labor market, contributing to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Recent figures, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), showed a decline in job openings, which, along with a soft Services PMI report, suggests the US economy may be slowing down.
This has led to a pullback in US Treasury yields and a weakening of the US Dollar, which in turn pressured the USD/JPY pair.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated that the Fed is content with holding interest rates steady, as the central bank waits to assess the long-term impact of US trade policies. This dovish stance supports the view that the USD may struggle to appreciate in the face of growing concerns about US economic conditions.
Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment
Apart from this, the current risk-on market mood is another factor weighing on the Japanese Yen. Investors appear to be less focused on the Yen's safe-haven appeal, as they are more optimistic about global economic growth, particularly in the US. This has led to increased demand for riskier assets and a pullback in JPY demand.
Moving ahead, the focus will remain on the upcoming US economic data, particularly the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
Hence, the stronger-than-expected employment report could provide some support to the USD, while a weaker report would likely further dampen USD prospects, keeping the pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading at 152.415, down 0.11%, as the pair remains in a corrective phase after failing to sustain momentum above key resistance levels. Price action is hovering below the pivot point at 153.203, signaling continued pressure from sellers in the short term. A decisive move above this level is necessary to confirm a bullish reversal.
Immediate resistance is seen at 153.210, followed by 154.178 and 155.333, which could act as barriers to further gains. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 154.605 reinforces resistance, making a sustained break above this region crucial for renewed upside potential.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 151.087, with further levels at 150.407 and 149.771. If USD/JPY slips below 151.087, a deeper pullback could take shape, testing the lower support zones. However, the market remains in an overall uptrend, and dips toward support levels may present buying opportunities.
Given the current structure, a buy position above 151.828 is preferred, with a take profit target at 153.203 and a stop loss at 151.093 to manage risk effectively. A successful break above resistance could trigger a move toward higher targets, while a failure to hold above support may shift sentiment further bearish.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 06, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) started to lose some of its gains but remains consolidating near its all-time peak of $2,865. However, the modest decline could be linked to the renewed strength of US dollar.
Although, the losses in the gold could be short-lived amid escalating concerns over a potential US-China trade war, triggered by President Donald Trump's tariffs. As a result, investors tend to favor gold as a safe-haven asset.
In addition, expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its dovish stance and cut interest rates in 2025 have further boosted gold's appeal. The drop in US Treasury bond yields has also made gold more attractive when compared to interest-bearing assets.
Despite these bullish drivers, the positive sentiment in the stock markets has limited fresh buying interest in gold. Traders are also cautious, with gold appearing slightly overbought on the daily chart.
Gold Prices Surge Amid Economic Data and Rising US-China Tensions
Gold's impressive rally is also fueled by US economic data and the growing US-China trade war. On the data front, the ADP report showed a slightly stronger-than-expected growth of 183K private-sector jobs in January, surpassing the previous month's increase of 176K.
However, this positive news was overshadowed by a disappointing ISM Services PMI report, which dropped to 52.8, signaling slower economic growth. In response, US Treasury yields plummeted to their lowest level since mid-December, increasing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Furthermore, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2025 added downward pressure on the US Dollar, sending it to a one-week low and further supporting gold’s bullish momentum.
US-China Trade Tensions Fuel Gold's Bullish Momentum as Investors Seek Safe-Haven Asset
Apart from this, the ongoing US-China trade tensions are also influencing the gold market. China recently announced a 15% tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, farm equipment, and some automobiles.
In addition to these tariffs, China has imposed export controls on certain key minerals like tungsten and tellurium, which are essential for various industries.
These actions are fueling concerns about further escalation in trade conflicts, adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook. As a result, investors are turning to gold as a safe-haven asset, which has helped support its bullish trend.
The trade war is pushing Chinese manufacturers to relocate production to other countries, including the Middle East, to avoid US tariffs. This shift in production is likely to impact global supply chains and could lead to higher costs for consumers in the US.
With the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and economic conditions, gold is seen as a reliable investment. The precious metal continues to attract investors looking for a hedge against the ongoing geopolitical and economic risks, keeping its prices supported and potentially leading to further gains in the future.
Key US Data and Market Outlook for Gold
Looking ahead, traders are focusing on key US employment data for insights into the Fed's future actions. The release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday will be a key indicator of the strength of the job market and potential future Fed moves.
Additionally, the release of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data on Thursday will offer further clues about the labor market's health.
For now, the fundamental factors remain supportive for gold. Economic uncertainty, a dovish Fed, and lower Treasury yields continue to create a favorable backdrop for the precious metal.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2868.17, showing slight upward movement (+0.03%) as traders assess key technical levels. Despite its minor gains, the metal remains below the pivot point at $2880.17, suggesting a cautious sentiment among investors.
Immediate resistance is located at $2897.72, followed by a stronger level at $2915.92. A break above these zones could signal renewed bullish momentum, pushing gold toward fresh highs. However, failure to sustain above the pivot point at $2880.17 may invite selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is noted at $2859.42, with stronger support levels at $2840.59 and $2815.69. These levels coincide with recent consolidation zones and could provide a buying opportunity if prices dip.
From a technical standpoint, gold is hovering near its 50-day EMA at $2826.99, reinforcing a potential floor for the metal. If XAU/USD remains above this level, a bounce toward resistance becomes more likely. However, a sustained break below the $2840.59 support could accelerate declines, putting the focus on the $2815.69 mark.
Given the technical structure, a sell setup is favored below $2873, with a take profit target at $2847 and a stop loss at $2890 to manage risk. Short-term traders should closely watch price action around the pivot zone, as a failure to reclaim $2880.17 could reinforce a bearish outlook.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its downward movement, staying around the 0.6259 level and hitting an intra-day low of 0.6255. The main reason for this decline can be traced to a few key factors.
First, the Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure due to weaker-than-expected Trade Balance data released earlier in the week. This news highlighted that Australia's exports were lower than anticipated, which caused the AUD to lose some strength against the US Dollar (USD).
Second, the ongoing tensions between the US and China over trade issues also contributed to a "risk-off" sentiment in the market. Traders are worried about the potential impact of these trade disputes, which is making them more cautious and pushing the AUD lower.
Lastly, although the US Dollar Index (DXY) was relatively steady at around 107.50, the weaker-than-expected US Services PMI data might have put some downward pressure on the USD.
Despite this, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, which continues to favor the US Dollar, contributing to the Australian Dollar’s struggles.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid Weaker Trade Data and US-China Tensions
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) dropped against the US Dollar (USD) after weaker-than-expected Trade Balance data was released on Thursday. Australia's trade surplus for December fell to 5,085 million AUD, missing the expected 7,000 million AUD and lower than the previous month's surplus of 6,792 million AUD.
Although exports increased by 1.1%, they slowed from November’s 4.2% rise. Meanwhile, imports surged by 5.9%, up from 1.4% in the previous month. This weaker trade data contributed to the AUD's decline.
Moreover, the ongoing US-China trade tensions added to the downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. China responded to new US tariffs with its own set of tariffs, including a 15% levy on US coal and LNG imports and a 10% tariff on US crude oil, farm equipment, and certain automobiles.
These escalating trade disputes are causing uncertainty, especially for Australia, as China is a key trading partner. Traders are closely monitoring the situation, fearing that further tensions could hurt global trade and economic growth.
Despite the trade concerns, Australia’s private sector showed some growth in January, with the Judo Bank Composite PMI rising to 51.1 from 50.2, indicating modest expansion. The Services PMI also climbed to 51.2, marking its twelfth consecutive month of growth. While the overall growth was moderate, it provided some positive news for the Australian economy. However, the combination of trade data and global risks kept the AUD under pressure.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62631, down 0.33%, reflecting sustained bearish sentiment amid broader market weakness. The pair remains under pressure below the pivot point at $0.62917, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend unless buyers regain control.
Immediate resistance stands at $0.63262, followed by $0.63556 and $0.63858, which align with previous price rejections. A breakout above these levels could trigger renewed bullish momentum, potentially shifting sentiment. However, given the current price action, upward movement appears constrained.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.62417, with additional safety nets at $0.62061 and $0.61697. A decisive break below $0.62417 could intensify selling pressure, exposing the pair to further declines.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62218 is in close proximity to support, making it a critical level for short-term traders. A bounce from this area may indicate temporary stabilization, but sustained trading below the pivot point at $0.62917 favors the bearish outlook.
From a strategic standpoint, a sell position below $0.62915 is preferred, with a take profit target at $0.62417 and a stop loss at $0.63255 to mitigate risk. Traders should monitor price action near the 50 EMA and support levels to assess potential reversal signs.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its bullish rally, staying strong around the 1.0416 level and even reaching a high of 1.0431. The main reason behind this upward movement is the US Dollar (USD) losing strength for the third consecutive day.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, dropped to around 107.50. This decline came as investors felt that a potential trade war wouldn’t escalate further, which helped reduce some of the risk associated with the USD.
On the other hand, the Euro (EUR) gained some momentum, despite underperforming against other major currencies. This is mainly due to the expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep its policy-easing approach.
The ECB remains confident that inflation in the Eurozone will fall back to its target of 2% by the end of the year, which has led investors to believe that the ECB might continue its current monetary policies.
EUR Struggles Amid ECB Rate Cut Expectations and US Tariff Concerns
On the EUR front, the shared currency has been struggling against its major peers despite gaining against the US Dollar. Investors expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue cutting interest rates, as policymakers are confident that inflation will return to the 2% target this year.
In an interview, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that inflation is moving toward the ECB’s goal but could see a slight increase in the coming months due to energy prices. However, he remained uncertain about how low interest rates would eventually go.
Last week, the ECB lowered its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% and maintained that its monetary policy remains restrictive. Traders now anticipate three more rate cuts in upcoming meetings.
Meanwhile, concerns over the Eurozone economy continue to grow, especially with fears that the European Union (EU) might be the next target for US tariffs if Donald Trump wins the election. Over the weekend, Trump said the EU has taken unfair advantage of the US and hinted at imposing tariffs.
This uncertainty has made investors cautious about the Euro’s future. Despite these challenges, EUR/USD has managed to gain due to the US Dollar’s recent weakness.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.03761, down 0.02%, reflecting a modest bearish bias as it hovers below the pivot point of $1.03879.
This level acts as a critical threshold, where sustained weakness could trigger further downside momentum. Immediate resistance lies at $1.04339, followed by $1.04678 and $1.05190. A break above these levels could signal a reversal of the current bearish trend.
On the downside, the pair finds immediate support at $1.03220. A decisive move below this could open the door for further declines toward $1.02721 and potentially $1.02129, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
The 50-EMA at $1.03512 adds to the downward pressure, acting as dynamic resistance and confirming the prevailing trend.
Technical indicators suggest limited bullish momentum, with sellers maintaining control unless the euro can reclaim levels above $1.03879.
The formation of lower highs and lower lows indicates persistent bearish sentiment, with any short-term rallies likely facing resistance near key levels.
Traders are advised to watch for price action around the pivot point. A sustained break below $1.03866 could provide a favorable entry for short positions, with targets near $1.03220 and stop-loss orders above $1.04239 to manage risk effectively.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair has maintained its upward trend and remained well bid around 1.2544, hitting the intra-day high of 1.2544. However, the reason for its upward trend could be attributed to the US Dollar losing some of its strength.
The Dollar weakened after US President Donald Trump decided to delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This move helped reduce some of the market’s worries about global trade tensions, making the Dollar less attractive to investors.
As a result, the British Pound gained against the US Dollar. Although the Pound is underperforming against most other currencies, it was able to find support against the Dollar due to the Dollar’s decline.
In addition to this, traders are cautious ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) decision, which is expected tomorrow. This has added some uncertainty to the market, and investors are closely watching how the BoE will adjust its policy.
GBP Under Pressure Ahead of Bank of England Rate Cut Decision
On the GBP front, the Pound (GBP) has been underperforming compared to most of its major peers, except the US Dollar (USD), as investors become more cautious ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision on Thursday.
The BoE is expected to cut its key borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps), lowering it to 4.50%. This would be the third rate cut in the current cycle. However, one BoE member, Catherine Mann, who is known for her hawkish views, might vote to keep the rate at 4.75%.
The main reason for this expected rate cut is that inflation in the UK has slowed down more than expected, especially in the services sector, which is closely watched by the BoE. In December, inflation in services rose by 4.4%, down from 5% in November.
Additionally, December's Retail Sales data showed a significant drop, which has further convinced traders that the BoE will ease its policy to help the economy.
Looking ahead, market participants are betting that the BoE may continue cutting rates by around 56 bps in total throughout the year, beyond this Thursday’s decision.
As a result, the GBP/USD pair is under pressure, as the anticipated rate cuts reduce the appeal of the Pound, while the US Dollar remains strong, holding its ground in the market.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.24667, down 0.09%, reflecting a cautious bearish sentiment as it struggles below the pivot point at $1.24915. The pair’s inability to maintain momentum above this level suggests sustained selling pressure.
Immediate resistance is noted at $1.25229, with additional barriers at $1.25629 and $1.26212. A break above these resistance levels could signal a potential shift toward a bullish outlook.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.24281. A decisive move below this threshold could accelerate bearish momentum, targeting $1.23780 and potentially $1.23236. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.24131 acts as a dynamic support, reinforcing the bearish bias if breached.
Technical indicators suggest a weak bullish recovery, with sellers maintaining control unless the pair closes firmly above the pivot point of $1.24915. The consistent formation of lower highs and lower lows on the 4-hour chart indicates bearish dominance.
Traders should closely monitor price action around $1.24901. A sustained break below this level offers a selling opportunity, with profit targets near $1.24275. A stop-loss above $1.25232 is recommended to manage potential reversals effectively.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its upward trend and remained well bid around the 2,869 level, reaching an intra-day high of 2,870. This rise can mainly be attributed to fears over the ongoing US-China trade war, which has boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven investment. Investors are turning to gold as a protective asset amid concerns over the trade tensions between the two largest economies.
Moreover, the weakening of the US Dollar (USD), driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue cutting interest rates in 2025, is adding more momentum to gold’s rally. These factors combined are pushing gold prices higher.
Despite some positive market sentiment, such as US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay tariffs against Canada and Mexico, which typically boosts riskier assets, gold prices are still climbing.
This suggests that gold remains in demand, with the path of least resistance pointing upward. However, the price of gold could face some resistance soon, as the market is showing signs of being slightly overbought. Traders are now waiting for new US economic data to provide fresh direction for the metal’s price.
Gold Price Soars Amid US-China Trade Tensions and Weak Job Market Data
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been under pressure as fears of a global trade war rise, especially after China retaliated to US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs. This has boosted demand for gold, pushing its price to a fresh record high.
In addition, data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a slowdown in the US job market, with job openings falling from 8.09 million to 7.6 million in December. This slowdown adds to expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further, which keeps the USD weak and supports gold’s rise.
Despite some positive news, like Trump delaying tariffs for Canada and Mexico, easing trade war tensions, gold has remained strong. Investors continue to view gold as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing trade concerns. This continued demand for gold suggests its price will likely stay supported in the short term.
However, the upcoming release of US economic data, including the ADP report and ISM Services PMI, could bring short-term volatility to the market. But all eyes will be on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, as it will give a clearer picture of the US labor market and could influence gold price movements.
Therefore, the ongoing trade tensions and weak US job market data support gold’s rise as a safe-haven asset. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts weaken the US dollar, which strengthens demand for gold, keeping its price elevated in the short term.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues its upward trajectory, trading at $2,859.85, marking a 0.58% gain. The bullish momentum is underpinned by strong buying interest, as the price holds firmly above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,806.47, signaling a robust bullish bias.
The metal's resilience amid global economic uncertainty and fluctuating U.S. dollar strength has positioned it near key resistance levels, suggesting further upside potential.
From a technical standpoint, the immediate resistance stands at $2,862.44, a critical level that, if breached, could open the path toward $2,877.51. A sustained move above this mark would likely test the next significant barrier at $2,894.42, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Conversely, on the downside, immediate support is observed at $2,826.15. A break below this could expose gold to deeper pullbacks toward $2,808.32 and potentially $2,781.26, where buyers may re-emerge.
Momentum indicators support the bullish scenario, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintaining levels above 60, reflecting strong buying pressure without signaling overbought conditions.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also indicates positive momentum, as the MACD line stays above the signal line, hinting at sustained bullish energy.
Conclusion: The technical landscape favors a bullish bias with an entry price suggested above $2,850. Profit-taking is advisable around $2,870, while a prudent stop-loss placement at $2,835 helps manage downside risks amid potential volatility.
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