Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair gained strong upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 1.2691 as the US Dollar weakened. The greenback’s decline gave the British Pound a boost, allowing it to extend its recent gains.
Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounds the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook. Although markets expect a gradual rate-cutting cycle this year, stronger-than-expected economic data has cast doubt on those projections.
As a result, the Pound continues to find support, with investors weighing the possibility of a more cautious approach from the BoE. If economic data remains robust, policymakers may delay aggressive easing, potentially providing further strength to GBP/USD.
On the flip side, uncertainty around US economic performance and Federal Reserve policy will continue to influence the pair’s direction in the coming sessions. Traders will keep a close eye on upcoming UK and US data releases for fresh cues.
Bank of England's Rate-Cutting Outlook and Economic Data Impact on GBP/USD
On the GBP front, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to follow a moderate rate-cutting cycle this year. However, recent UK economic data has made traders rethink their expectations.
Strong Retail Sales, hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, and solid wage growth in the last three months of 2023 have led investors to reduce their bets on aggressive rate cuts.
Despite this, money markets still anticipate two more rate cuts this year after the BoE lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% earlier this month.
Analysts at TD Securities, however, predict the BoE will cut rates four more times in 2024, citing risks such as potential trade tariffs if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election.
Yet, they have pushed their forecast for the next rate cut from March to May due to stronger-than-expected UK economic data. The uncertainty around monetary policy continues to impact the GBP/USD pair, as traders closely watch for signals from the central bank.
Looking ahead, speeches from BoE policymakers, including Clare Lombardelli, Swati Dhingra, and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden on Monday, could provide fresh insights into the central bank’s stance.
US Dollar Weakens as Soft Services Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar edged lower as weak services sector data raised expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June.
This decline was mainly triggered by the US preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February, which showed a significant slowdown in business activity.
The Composite PMI rose at a slower pace, increasing only to 50.4 from 52.7 in January, with services sector activity unexpectedly contracting. The Services PMI fell to 49.7, dipping below the 50 mark for the first time in 25 months.
Economists had expected services to expand slightly. The report pointed to political uncertainty, including concerns over federal spending cuts and their potential impact on growth and inflation, as key factors behind the slowdown.
In contrast, the Manufacturing PMI showed positive signs, expanding to 51.6 in February from 51.2 in January, exceeding expectations. This growth in the manufacturing sector is seen as a result of US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, which aimed to boost local production.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on key data this week, including US Durable Goods Orders and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which could provide further clues on the Fed’s next move.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.26401, showing a slight upward movement, maintaining support above the pivot point at $1.26211. This level is crucial as it is reinforced by the 50 EMA at $1.26244, which is acting as dynamic support.
The technical outlook remains bullish as long as GBP/USD stays above this level. A break above the immediate resistance at $1.26896 could propel the pair toward the next resistance at $1.27569, with a potential extension to $1.28233.
On the downside, if prices fall below the pivot point, immediate support is at $1.25660, followed by $1.25087 and $1.24528. A break below the 50 EMA would signal a bearish reversal, increasing selling pressure. However, the overall outlook remains bullish as long as GBP/USD trades above $1.26211 and the 50 EMA.
Traders should watch for a decisive breakout above $1.26896 for a bullish continuation, while a drop below $1.26211 may indicate a bearish pullback.
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