AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

Daily Price Outlook

- Rejection at Resistance: Price stalls at $0.6391 with signs of a triple top formation.

- Momentum Caution: RSI hovers near 65, suggesting reduced upside potential.

- Downside Targets: $0.6277 and $0.6218 emerge as key support levels if price breaks lower.

AUD/USD is encountering firm resistance near the $0.6391 level, where a potential triple top formation is taking shape. This technical pattern, which indicates repeated failure to move higher, suggests that bullish momentum may be weakening.

Price action has tested this area multiple times over the past few weeks, and the most recent approach was met with renewed selling interest.

The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is trending higher and currently sits around $0.6218, showing that the short-term structure has improved since the early April low.

However, with the pair approaching a historically strong resistance area, traders may start considering pullback scenarios — particularly if price slips below the $0.6391 neckline of the pattern.

Momentum indicators are signaling caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.8, just below overbought levels. A decline below the 60 zone could confirm bearish divergence and further support the case for a short-term reversal.

A break below the $0.6391 threshold would shift the focus to $0.6277 as the next target, with potential to extend toward $0.6218 — close to the SMA and previous support.

Unless AUD/USD manages a clean breakout above $0.6444 — invalidating the triple top — the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside in the near term.

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.63912

Take Profit – 0.62768

Stop Loss – 0.64440

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1144/ -$528

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$114/ -$52