EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD extended its upward trend and remained well bid around 1.0910 during European trading hours on Monday, as investors awaits for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision on Wednesday. The currency pair traded in a tight range as market participants sought clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Impact of Fed's Policy and Economic Uncertainty on EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing traction despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%.
However, investors are more focused on the Fed’s "dot plot," which gives clues about future rate changes. In the last meeting, Fed officials predicted three rate cuts this year, so traders will be watching closely to see if that changes.
Another key focus will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on economic growth, jobs, and inflation. If he hints at any shift in policy, it could impact the dollar and financial markets.
Meanwhile, uncertainty is rising due to concerns over potential tariff policies under former US President Donald Trump.
Adding to the worries, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently suggested that the government may need to adjust its spending to avoid financial risks. This has raised fears about possible economic disruptions in the coming months.
Therefore, the EUR/USD pair may strengthen if the Fed signals delayed rate cuts or economic concerns rise. However, uncertainty over US policies and spending risks could limit gains, keeping the pair volatile.
Euro Strengthens Amid German Fiscal Expansion and Geopolitical Developments
Across the ocean, the shared currency remained firm as German leaders agreed to establish a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and ease borrowing restrictions through changes in the ‘debt brake’ rule.
This move, expected to be approved in the lower house of Parliament on Tuesday, is seen as a significant step to boost economic growth.
However, the Reuters poll conducted from March 10-14 showed that economists raised their Eurozone growth forecasts for 2026 from 1.2% to 1.3%, reflecting optimism over Germany’s fiscal expansion.
Apart from this, positive developments in Russia-Ukraine peace talks have further supported the Euro. Donald Trump is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss a ceasefire, following Ukraine’s acceptance of a 30-day truce after negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
EUR/USD Faces Risks from US-EU Trade Tensions and Fed Policy Outlook
Despite EUR/USD’s recovery, the escalating trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) pose a risk to the Euro’s gains.
On Thursday, Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on European alcohol imports, retaliating against the EU’s proposed tariffs on US goods in response to a 25% levy on steel and aluminum.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that a full-scale trade war would negatively impact global economic growth, stating, “Trade war is bad news for the world economy, everyone loses in that situation.”
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08763, holding steady but slightly pressured below the $1.08844 pivot point. The pair is consolidating in a narrow range as traders await key economic cues, with immediate resistance at $1.09314 and support at $1.08297.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08839 is acting as a dynamic barrier, reinforcing a potential bearish outlook if price action fails to reclaim higher levels.
A break below $1.08844 could confirm downside pressure, with sellers eyeing the next support zones at $1.08297 and $1.07966.
A sharper decline could expose $1.07650, a level that aligns with previous demand zones. On the upside, if EUR/USD rebounds and breaks above $1.09314, bullish momentum could extend toward $1.09710 and $1.10065.
Traders should monitor $1.08844 closely. A sustained move below this level would reinforce selling momentum, while a recovery above $1.09314 could shift sentiment toward further gains.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and climbed to around 1.0912. The Euro (EUR) is gaining strength against the US Dollar (USD) despite ongoing trade tensions between the United States and the European Union.
Investors are closely watching key economic data releases, including Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) for February and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March, which could further influence the pair’s movement.
EUR/USD Rises Despite Trade Tensions and Recession Concerns
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a 200% tariff on European wine, cognac, and other alcohol in response to the EU’s planned tariffs on American whiskey and other goods starting in April.
The EU’s move came after Trump imposed a 25% duty on steel and aluminum imports. Despite these trade tensions, the Euro (EUR) is holding strong, and EUR/USD continues to rise as investors focus on upcoming economic data.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that higher US tariffs could push Germany, Europe’s largest economy, into another recession.
He said on Thursday that if the tariffs go into effect, Germany might face a recession this year. Despite these concerns, the Euro (EUR) remains resilient, and EUR/USD continues to rise as investors focus on upcoming economic data.
Fed Rate Cut Speculations Cap Dollar Gains
On the other hand, the downside for EUR/USD is limited due to growing concerns about the US economy. Analysts at Barclays have updated their Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut forecast, now expecting two cuts in June and September instead of just one.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 75% chance of a rate cut by June, signaling market confidence in upcoming easing, which supports the Euro's strength and keeps EUR/USD rising.
Hence, the weaker US economic data has also contributed to speculation that the Fed may move to lower interest rates sooner rather than later. A slowdown in economic growth would put further pressure on the Greenback, potentially limiting further losses in the EUR/USD pair.
Moving forward, investors will closely monitor developments in the US-EU trade dispute, as any further escalation could intensify selling pressure on the Euro.
Moreover, upcoming economic data from both regions, including inflation reports and consumer sentiment figures, will play a crucial role in determining EUR/USD’s next move.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08339, down 0.03%, as the pair continues to face pressure amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. The euro remains on a downward trajectory, struggling to break past the pivot level at $1.08740.
A failure to reclaim this level suggests that sellers remain in control, with immediate resistance seen at $1.09314, followed by $1.09856 and $1.10365.
On the downside, the $1.08094 support level is a key area to watch. A sustained break below this threshold could accelerate losses toward $1.07650 and $1.07213, reinforcing a broader bearish trend.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08735 is acting as dynamic resistance, further limiting upside potential. A failure to close above this moving average could keep bearish sentiment intact.
For now, a break below $1.08094 could confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside likely.
Conversely, a close above $1.08740 would signal potential stabilization, opening the door for a recovery toward $1.09314.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD remains below $1.08740, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
- Immediate support at $1.08094; a breakdown could target $1.07650.
- Dollar strength and ECB policy stance remain key drivers of market direction.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08339, down 0.03%, as the pair continues to face pressure amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. The euro remains on a downward trajectory, struggling to break past the pivot level at $1.08740.
A failure to reclaim this level suggests that sellers remain in control, with immediate resistance seen at $1.09314, followed by $1.09856 and $1.10365.
On the downside, the $1.08094 support level is a key area to watch. A sustained break below this threshold could accelerate losses toward $1.07650 and $1.07213, reinforcing a broader bearish trend.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08735 is acting as dynamic resistance, further limiting upside potential. A failure to close above this moving average could keep bearish sentiment intact.
For now, a break below $1.08094 could confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside likely.
Conversely, a close above $1.08740 would signal potential stabilization, opening the door for a recovery toward $1.09314.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08737
Take Profit – 1.07958
Stop Loss – 1.09200
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$779/ -$463
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$77/ -$46
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, staying well bid around the 1.0926 level.
However, the bullish bias can be attributed to growing concerns surrounding the US economic outlook under President Donald Trump’s leadership, which has put pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
Another factor supporting the EUR/USD pair is optimism about Germany’s defense spending deal. Investors hope debt restructuring will boost defense spending and stimulate Eurozone growth, potentially influencing the ECB’s interest rate stance.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Recession Fears and Trump’s Tariff Agenda
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is underperforming, mainly due to concerns that President Trump’s tariff policies could increase the risk of a US recession.
His "America First" approach is seen as potentially driving up inflation, which could hurt consumer purchasing power already impacted by high inflation.
These worries grew after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick defended Trump’s policies in a CBS interview on Tuesday, acknowledging they could lead to a recession but arguing they are necessary for the country’s future.
Looking forward, traders are waiting for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, set to be published at 12:30 GMT.
This inflation data is important because it will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next actions on interest rates.
Headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.9% year-over-year, down from 3% in January. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecasted to ease to 3.2% from 3.3%.
These numbers could impact speculation about future rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would affect the USD.
Euro Strengthened by German Economic Optimism and Ukrainian Ceasefire
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) has gained traction over the past week, driven by optimism surrounding the German defense spending deal.
Investors are hopeful that a clearance for German debt restructuring could increase defense spending and stimulate economic growth in the Eurozone.
The upcoming meeting between key German political figures is seen as pivotal in determining the course of this potential fiscal policy shift.
If successful, it could lead to a reassessment of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s dovish stance on interest rates.
Moreover, positive developments on the geopolitical front, including Ukraine’s agreement to a 30-day ceasefire, have boosted the Euro’s appeal.
With US officials in Saudi Arabia facilitating peace talks, optimism about stability in the region has given further support to the EUR.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.09041, maintaining a neutral stance as investors await fresh economic catalysts.
The pivot point at $1.08848 serves as a crucial threshold, with the pair needing to hold above this level to sustain bullish momentum.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 provides further support, reinforcing the short-term upward trend.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $1.09488, followed by $1.10045 and $1.10602. A breakout above $1.09488 could push the pair toward the psychological $1.10 level, which, if breached, may lead to further gains. However, failure to clear this resistance zone may keep the pair in consolidation mode.
Support levels are $1.08374, $1.07700, and $1.07151. A move below $1.08374 would signal increased selling pressure, potentially triggering a deeper pullback toward the $1.07700 handle.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 is a key technical floor—if breached, it could accelerate downside momentum.
Given the current setup, a buy position above $1.08848 is favored, targeting $1.09542 for profit, while maintaining a stop-loss at $1.08449 to protect against downside risks.
The short-term outlook hinges on upcoming economic data, particularly U.S. inflation figures and European Central Bank signals, which could drive volatility.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD must stay above $1.08848 to maintain a bullish bias, with resistance at $1.09488 acting as the next key barrier.
- The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 is a critical support level—a break below could shift momentum toward $1.07700.
- A buy strategy above $1.08848 with take-profit at $1.09542 and stop-loss at $1.08449 aligns with the current bullish sentiment.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.09041, maintaining a neutral stance as investors await fresh economic catalysts.
The pivot point at $1.08848 serves as a crucial threshold, with the pair needing to hold above this level to sustain bullish momentum.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 provides further support, reinforcing the short-term upward trend.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $1.09488, followed by $1.10045 and $1.10602. A breakout above $1.09488 could push the pair toward the psychological $1.10 level, which, if breached, may lead to further gains. However, failure to clear this resistance zone may keep the pair in consolidation mode.
Support levels are $1.08374, $1.07700, and $1.07151. A move below $1.08374 would signal increased selling pressure, potentially triggering a deeper pullback toward the $1.07700 handle.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 is a key technical floor—if breached, it could accelerate downside momentum.
Given the current setup, a buy position above $1.08848 is favored, targeting $1.09542 for profit, while maintaining a stop-loss at $1.08449 to protect against downside risks.
The short-term outlook hinges on upcoming economic data, particularly U.S. inflation figures and European Central Bank signals, which could drive volatility.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08848
Take Profit – 1.09542
Stop Loss – 1.08449
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$694/ -$399
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$69/ -$39
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD holding above 50-day EMA ($1.07483), maintaining an overall bullish bias.
- Breakout above $1.08855 could open the door for $1.09312 and $1.09686.
- A drop below $1.07658 could trigger declines toward $1.07164 and $1.06579.
The EUR/USD pair remains in a tight consolidation phase, hovering around $1.08338 after a recent pullback from its highs. The pair is struggling to gain significant bullish traction but remains supported above the 50-day EMA at $1.07483, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
On the upside, the first key resistance is at $1.08855, which aligns with recent highs. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger further gains toward $1.09312, followed by $1.09686, where sellers may emerge. However, failure to clear these levels could lead to renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.07658, aligning with last week's lows. If this level gives way, EUR/USD could retest the next key supports at $1.07164 and $1.06579. A break below these zones would expose the pair to further downside risk, potentially targeting the 200-day EMA near $1.0562.
Fundamentally, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.
A stronger-than-expected CPI report may bolster the U.S. dollar, pressuring EUR/USD lower, while weaker data could fuel expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut, supporting further upside in the pair.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08266
Take Profit – 1.08960
Stop Loss – 1.07867
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$694/ -$399
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$69/ -$39
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extend its upward trend and remained bullish around above 1.0875 level.
However, the shared currency has gained momentum amid positive Eurozone data. Meanwhile, the bearish US dollar, pressured by the signs of an economic slowdown, was seen as another key factor that supported the EUR/USD pair.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index Jumps to -2.9 in March
On the data front, the latest Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March surged to -2.9, a sharp improvement from February's reading of -12.7.
This unexpected uptick in investor sentiment signals a recovery in confidence about the economic outlook for the region, particularly in Germany, the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse.
According to Sentix, Germany’s industrial sector saw an impressive boost in January, with industrial output rising by 2% month-on-month (MoM), beating expectations of a 1.5% increase.
Sentix described investor sentiment in Germany as “downright euphoric,” suggesting a growing belief that the country’s economy is on a positive trajectory.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s current situation indicator also showed progress, increasing to -21.8 from -25.5 in February. This suggests that investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about the region’s recovery, supported by Germany’s strong economic performance.
Therefore, the improvement in the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, especially driven by Germany's strong economic performance, boosts investor optimism, supporting EUR/USD gains as confidence in the Eurozone rises.
Weak US Data and Trump’s Uncertain Economic Agenda Weigh on USD
On the other hand, the US Dollar faced downward pressure as the market digested disappointing economic data and increasing concerns over President Donald Trump’s economic policies.
Data showing a 15-month low in US Consumer Confidence, a drop in ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February have raised doubts about the strength of the US economy.
These indicators suggest that the US may be headed for a slowdown, adding to worries over the effectiveness of Trump’s "America First" policies.
In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump acknowledged that his administration’s policies would result in short-term economic shocks, reinforcing fears of potential disruption to the US economy. Trump’s unpredictable tariff and tax policies have created uncertainty, leading investors to scale back expectations for US growth in the near term.
As a result, market participants are increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its policy easing cycle, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the June meeting rising to 82%, up from 54% a month ago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda and its effects on the broader economy.
Euro Faces Pressure from ECB’s Caution on Interest Rates
Despite the positive data from the Eurozone, the Euro is facing some challenges in the short term. After strong gains last week, traders are taking profits, which is putting some pressure on the currency.
Additionally, there are concerns about the European Central Bank's (ECB) future actions. Last week, the ECB cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, but they did not commit to further rate cuts or a broader expansion of monetary policy.
ECB officials, including Mario Centeno, have indicated that the Eurozone is moving towards "normalizing" its monetary policy, with inflation decreasing and getting closer to the ECB’s target. These factors are causing some caution around the Euro’s near-term performance.
On the other hand, Germany’s move to extend its borrowing limit and establish a EUR500 billion infrastructure fund for defense spending has forced traders to revise expectations for ECB rate cuts. As a result, the Euro’s bullish momentum has been capped, although sentiment remains generally positive.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair remains in a tight consolidation phase, hovering around $1.08338 after a recent pullback from its highs. The pair is struggling to gain significant bullish traction but remains supported above the 50-day EMA at $1.07483, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
On the upside, the first key resistance is at $1.08855, which aligns with recent highs. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger further gains toward $1.09312, followed by $1.09686, where sellers may emerge. However, failure to clear these levels could lead to renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.07658, aligning with last week's lows. If this level gives way, EUR/USD could retest the next key supports at $1.07164 and $1.06579. A break below these zones would expose the pair to further downside risk, potentially targeting the 200-day EMA near $1.0562.
Fundamentally, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.
A stronger-than-expected CPI report may bolster the U.S. dollar, pressuring EUR/USD lower, while weaker data could fuel expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut, supporting further upside in the pair.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD holds above $1.07640, maintaining a cautiously bullish outlook ahead of key U.S. jobs data.
- A breakout above $1.08521 could drive the pair toward $1.09022 and $1.09497, reinforcing upside potential.
- Failure to sustain above $1.07640 may expose EUR/USD to a decline toward $1.07100 and $1.06579.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08178, holding steady as markets digest economic data and central bank signals. The pair remains above its pivot point at $1.07640, indicating near-term bullish sentiment, though gains are limited by key resistance at $1.08521.
A sustained breakout above this level could push the pair toward $1.09022, with the next target at $1.09497.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.07100, with deeper levels at $1.06579 and $1.06049. A move below the pivot point may weaken sentiment, triggering a shift toward a bearish outlook.
The 50-day EMA at $1.06489 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing buyers' control. The euro’s performance remains tied to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook.
A dovish Fed stance could weaken the dollar, providing support to EUR/USD, while stronger U.S. labor market data may strengthen the greenback, capping further gains in the euro.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
If job growth exceeds expectations, it may fuel speculation of delayed rate cuts, potentially driving EUR/USD lower. Conversely, a weaker labor market print could reinforce Fed easing bets, pushing the pair higher.
A decisive break above $1.08521 would confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below $1.07640 could trigger further downside pressure.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08049
Take Profit – 1.08900
Stop Loss – 1.07379
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$851/ -$670
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$85/ -$67
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its bullish momentum, surging above the 1.0850 level and hitting the intra-day high of 1.0871level.
However, the shared currency gained traction as traders reassessed their expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) after Germany confirmed a €500 billion infrastructure fund and proposed changes to the "debt brake."
These reforms could lead to higher inflation, which may slow down the ECB’s plans to cut interest rates. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde avoided commenting on these changes during her press conference, saying that increased spending on defense and infrastructure is still under review.
With inflation concerns rising, market expectations for ECB rate cuts have shifted. Traders now speculate that the ECB may pause its rate-cutting cycle in April after five consecutive reductions. Before the ECB’s latest meeting, investors had expected two more rate cuts by summer.
Lagarde maintained a cautious stance, saying future rate decisions would be based on economic data and decided on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis. This uncertainty, combined with a weaker US Dollar, has helped EUR/USD maintain its bullish momentum.
US Dollar Weakness and Market Sentiment
Another factor that has been supporting the EUR/USD pair is the US Dollar’s weakness ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against major currencies, has been falling for five straight days, reaching a four-month low of 103.60.
Meanwhile, the US economic outlook and Trump’s tariff policies have added pressure on the US Dollar. Investors worry that higher tariffs could hurt US importers and reduce consumer spending, weakening the economy.
On Thursday, Trump temporarily eased some tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) but confirmed that new tariffs will take effect on April 2.
Moving ahead, the upcoming US NFP report is expected to show an increase of 160K jobs in February, higher than the 143K recorded in January.
In the meantime, the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4%, while Average Hourly Earnings are anticipated to rise by 4.1% year-on-year.
However, the month-on-month wage growth rate is expected to slow to 0.3%, down from 0.5% in January.
On the other hand, the next major event for the Euro is the German parliamentary vote on debt brake reforms, scheduled for March 18.
This could affect inflation and influence the ECB’s decisions. On the other hand, US job data will give more clues about the Fed’s next moves, which will impact EUR/USD trends. (edited)
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08178, holding steady as markets digest economic data and central bank signals. The pair remains above its pivot point at $1.07640, indicating near-term bullish sentiment, though gains are limited by key resistance at $1.08521.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.07100, with deeper levels at $1.06579 and $1.06049. A move below the pivot point may weaken sentiment, triggering a shift toward a bearish outlook.
The 50-day EMA at $1.06489 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing buyers' control. The euro’s performance remains tied to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook.
A dovish Fed stance could weaken the dollar, providing support to EUR/USD, while stronger U.S. labor market data may strengthen the greenback, capping further gains in the euro.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
If job growth exceeds expectations, it may fuel speculation of delayed rate cuts, potentially driving EUR/USD lower. Conversely, a weaker labor market print could reinforce Fed easing bets, pushing the pair higher.
A decisive break above $1.08521 would confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below $1.07640 could trigger further downside pressure.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its upward momentum on Wednesday, reaching near 1.0720, the highest level seen this year.
However, the shared currency strengthened as investors moved away from the US Dollar (USD) amid growing concerns over the United States (US) economic outlook.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, slipped to a three-month low of 105.15.
EUR/USD Strengthens Amid Weak US Dollar and Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar came under pressure as market participants reassessed their expectations regarding US economic growth.
Investors are increasingly worried that former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies could slow down economic expansion rather than fuel inflation and growth, as previously expected.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Citi analysts forecasted a 0.1% decline in Q1 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and projected that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might resume its rate-cut cycle in May, after pausing in December. This, in turn, has pressured the US dollar, making the Euro more attractive.
German Debt Reforms and ECB Policy Outlook Support Euro
On the flip side, the Euro found support from expectations of fiscal expansion in Germany. Frederich Merz, the likely next German chancellor, along with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has agreed on a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and a relaxation of borrowing limits.
These changes could boost economic growth in the Eurozone and push inflation higher, helping the Euro stay strong.
However, the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting remains a key event for EUR/USD traders. Notably, the ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) for the fifth consecutive time.
Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to clarify the bank’s monetary policy path. Investors will closely watch her remarks on the impact of Trump’s tariffs and Germany’s fiscal policies on the Eurozone economy.
Trade Tensions and US Economic Data to Impact EUR/USD
On the geopolitical front, the US has already imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods, with additional reciprocal tariffs set to take effect from April 2.
This poses a risk to the Euro, as Germany, a key economy in the Eurozone, is a major car exporter to the US. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on foreign automobiles from 2.5% to 25% could hurt German automakers, impacting exports and economic growth. If trade tensions escalate, market uncertainty may weigh on the Euro, affecting the EUR/USD pair.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services data for February, set to be released in the North American session.
These figures could shape market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, ultimately influencing EUR/USD’s next move.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.06248, struggling to hold above key support levels as the U.S. dollar retains strength. The pivot point at $1.06351 is a crucial threshold, with the pair teetering just below it. The 50-day EMA at $1.04784 signals a bearish bias, suggesting further downside potential if sellers remain in control.
A break below $1.06344 could accelerate selling pressure, with immediate support at $1.05614 acting as the next key level. If the bearish momentum continues, EUR/USD could decline further toward $1.04962, with an extended downside target at $1.04448, marking a multi-week low.
On the upside, resistance remains firm at $1.06990, with a break above this level required for any meaningful recovery. If the pair manages to push higher, the next upside hurdles are $1.07453 and $1.08038, where sellers may re-emerge. However, given the current bearish sentiment, a sustained move above $1.06837 is required to shift momentum.
The technical landscape remains bearish, as long as EUR/USD trades below the pivot point at $1.06351. A confirmed break below $1.05614 could trigger further declines, while a push above $1.06990 would be needed to negate the bearish outlook.
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