EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday's European trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped to near the 1.0764 level, facing strong bearish pressure as trade tensions between the United States and the European Union (EU) escalated.
This sharp decline in the major currency pair comes ahead of the anticipated announcement by US President Donald Trump on April 2, which will impose reciprocal tariffs.
US Tariff Announcement Weighs on Market Sentiment
The US administration’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on automobile imports is a key driver behind the recent decline in EUR/USD. The tariffs, which will take effect on April 2, are expected to create turmoil in the global auto industry, with major impacts on both the US and European economies.
US imports of cars from Germany, which make up a large part of Germany's car exports, will get more expensive. This will make them less competitive in the global market. The news has caused a drop in the stock prices of car companies, adding to the overall negative market mood.
As a result, US Federal Reserve officials are worried that Trump's tariff plan could lead to higher inflation. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the tariffs would raise inflation in the short term but could be temporary.
She also pointed out that the Fed should stay flexible with its policies, suggesting that keeping interest rates the same might be a good choice given these economic challenges.
Impact of US Tariff Plans on the Eurozone Economy and Trade Relations
On the other side, as the US tariff plans ramp up, the European Commission (EC) is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US products. This growing trade tension is creating more uncertainty for the Euro. German car manufacturers, who rely heavily on exports to the US, are especially worried.
The proposed tariffs could significantly hurt their ability to compete in the US market, impacting the Eurozone’s overall economic growth.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has criticized the US for its protectionist approach, warning that these tariffs would create a lose-lose scenario for both sides.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has also raised concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s trade policies. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that while the inflationary impact might be temporary, the tariffs could have long-lasting effects on economic growth in the Eurozone.
Slower Inflation Data in France and Spain Offers Temporary Relief for the Euro Amid Trade Concerns
On the economic front, the latest inflation data from France and Spain has shown slower-than-expected price pressures, providing some temporary relief for the Euro. France’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose by 0.9%, lower than the expected 1.1%.
Similarly, Spain’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed a slowdown in inflation, rising 2.2% compared to 2.9% in the prior period.
However, the softer inflation numbers are unlikely to prevent the continued decline of the Euro, as the broader trade and tariff concerns overshadow the inflation data.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading modestly lower at $1.07870, down 0.01% as the euro struggles to regain footing amid mixed technical signals and cautious market sentiment.
Price action remains below the pivot point at $1.08058, indicating a short-term bearish bias while the pair hovers just under the 50-period EMA at $1.07942.
The technical outlook suggests that euro bears are maintaining control for now, as the pair continues to drift within a descending channel on the 4-hour chart.
Immediate support is noted at $1.07656, a level that previously provided a short-term bounce. A sustained break below this could expose deeper support levels at $1.07214 and $1.06790.
On the upside, resistance stands at $1.08544, followed by $1.08841 and $1.09177—key areas that bulls would need to overcome to shift sentiment meaningfully.
Momentum indicators remain subdued, and without a catalyst to propel the euro above its pivot, sellers may continue to dominate.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, giving neither side a definitive edge, but the broader structure favors downside as long as EUR/USD remains capped below the $1.08058 threshold.
From a tactical standpoint, a short position below $1.08052 may offer a favorable setup, with targets at $1.07406 and a stop placed near $1.08364.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading hours on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair climbed towards 1.0780, benefiting from a weaker US dollar.
The Greenback came under pressure following disappointing US economic data and rising uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Although, the upside remains limited due to the ECB’s dovish tone. Traders will closely monitor upcoming US economic data and any developments regarding Trump’s trade tariffs, which could influence the next moves in the currency market.
US Economic Data Signals Weakness, Weighing on the Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remained on the back foot after Tuesday’s release of weak consumer confidence data.
The Conference Board reported that US consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in more than four years in March, reflecting heightened concerns over economic slowdown and policy uncertainty.
This has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve might consider further policy adjustments to support economic stability.
On the flip side, Investors remain cautious as uncertainty looms over Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans set for next week.
On Monday, Trump hinted that not all tariffs would be imposed on the April 2 deadline and that some countries might receive exemptions, but he provided no further details.
The lack of clarity has heightened market anxiety, adding to pressure on the US dollar and contributed to the EUR/USD pair losses.
ECB Dovish Signals Could Cap Euro Gains
Despite the US dollar’s weakness, the dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) could limit the euro’s upside trend.
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau suggested on Tuesday that there is still room for further rate cuts, indicating that the deposit rate could decline from 2.5% to 2% by the end of summer.
ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta stressed the need for a data-driven approach, noting that as inflation falls and interest rates reach neutral levels, policy decisions become more uncertain. This suggests the ECB may take a cautious stance, potentially slowing the euro’s rise against the US dollar.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.07875, posting a slight gain of +0.02% in early European hours. Despite the modest uptick, the currency remains below its pivot point at $1.08058, signaling that bearish sentiment still lingers as price action struggles to gain upside traction.
The 4-hour chart shows price comfortably beneath the 50-period EMA at $1.08608, further reinforcing near-term downside pressure.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08544, aligning closely with the 50 EMA, followed by additional barriers at $1.08841 and $1.09177. Bulls would need a decisive break above these levels to reassert control, but current momentum indicators suggest a lack of conviction from buyers.
On the downside, $1.07656 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.07214 and $1.06780, levels that could come into play if selling accelerates below the pivot.
Given the current technical structure, a short bias remains favored below $1.08056, with a tactical sell setup targeting $1.07433, and a stop loss positioned at $1.08368 to manage risk. RSI and MACD indicators lean neutral to slightly bearish, with no clear signs of reversal yet.
In summary, while price hovers just below key resistance, the path of least resistance appears to favor sellers unless buyers reclaim ground above the $1.085 level with conviction.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD holds below pivot at $1.08058, maintaining a near-term bearish tone.
- A break below $1.07656 could expose $1.07214 and $1.06780 support zones.
- Short setup in play: Sell below $1.08056, targeting $1.07433, with stop at $1.08368.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.07875, posting a slight gain of +0.02% in early European hours. Despite the modest uptick, the currency remains below its pivot point at $1.08058, signaling that bearish sentiment still lingers as price action struggles to gain upside traction.
The 4-hour chart shows price comfortably beneath the 50-period EMA at $1.08608, further reinforcing near-term downside pressure.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08544, aligning closely with the 50 EMA, followed by additional barriers at $1.08841 and $1.09177. Bulls would need a decisive break above these levels to reassert control, but current momentum indicators suggest a lack of conviction from buyers.
On the downside, $1.07656 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.07214 and $1.06780, levels that could come into play if selling accelerates below the pivot.
Given the current technical structure, a short bias remains favored below $1.08056, with a tactical sell setup targeting $1.07433, and a stop loss positioned at $1.08368 to manage risk. RSI and MACD indicators lean neutral to slightly bearish, with no clear signs of reversal yet.
In summary, while price hovers just below key resistance, the path of least resistance appears to favor sellers unless buyers reclaim ground above the $1.085 level with conviction.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08056
Take Profit – 1.07433
Stop Loss – 1.08368
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$623/ -$312
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$62/ -$31
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair stopped its three-day decline, trading around 1.0840 on Monday morning.
This rebound happened due to growing concerns over a possible slowdown in the US economy, partly caused by trade policy uncertainties under President Donald Trump, which have negatively impacted the US Dollar.
As a result, investors are now focused on the recently released Eurozone’s manufacturing sector data, which showed some signs of recovery. This was seen as another key factor that underpinned the EUR/USD pair.
Mixed Eurozone PMI Data Impacts EUR/USD Performance
On the EUR front, the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector showed some signs of recovery, while the services sector underperformed in March.
According to the latest data from the HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.7 in March, up from 47.6 in February, surpassing the market expectation of 48. This marks a slight easing of the manufacturing contraction, providing some support for the Euro.
Meanwhile, the Services PMI in the Eurozone declined to 50.4 in March from 50.6 in February, falling short of the anticipated 51 and marking a four-month low.
The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite increased slightly to 50.4 in March, from 50.2 in February, reflecting a modest improvement in overall business activity across the region.
In Germany, the region's largest economy, the manufacturing sector performed better than expected, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 48.3 in March, up from 46.5 in February and surpassing the expected 47.7.
This was the highest reading in 31 months, signaling a recovery in the industrial sector. On the other hand, the Services PMI in Germany fell to 50.2, down from 51.1 in February, hitting a four-month low and adding to concerns about the region's growth prospects.
Therefore, the mixed PMI data, with manufacturing showing recovery and services underperforming, may support the Euro but limit its upside, keeping the EUR/USD pair range-bound as investors await further economic signals.
US Economic Concerns and Geopolitical Developments Weigh on the Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains under pressure due to growing concerns over President Trump's trade policies, especially his approach to reciprocal tariffs.
However, the White House is revising its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 deadline, with reports suggesting some industry-specific tariffs may be dropped while new tariffs will be imposed on countries with strong trade ties to the US.
This move aims to address trade imbalances but has raised concerns that it could slow down global economic growth, particularly in the Eurozone, which is closely tied to US trade.
Moreover, the geopolitical tensions also played a role in market sentiment, with easing concerns following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh over the weekend.
The ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Ukraine war and President Trump’s calls for an end to the conflict have helped reduce some geopolitical risk, contributing to improved investor sentiment.
Therefore, the US dollar’s pressure from trade policy concerns and geopolitical tensions, alongside improved sentiment from the Ukraine talks, could lead to a weaker dollar, potentially supporting a higher EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading slightly lower at $1.08457, down 0.02% on the day, as the pair navigates a tight range ahead of key U.S. economic data later this week.
Despite the marginal pullback, the euro remains above the pivotal support at $1.08049—a level that continues to attract buying interest and has helped stabilize recent price action.
Technically, the 4-hour chart reveals that EUR/USD is caught between its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08802 and the pivot zone near $1.08049.
A clear move above the EMA could trigger fresh upside momentum toward immediate resistance at $1.08680, followed by $1.09177 and $1.09516.
These levels correspond to recent consolidation zones and would likely require increased volume to break decisively.
On the downside, should the pair slip below $1.08049, initial support rests at $1.07656, with deeper floors at $1.07214 and $1.06780. A breach below $1.07656 would indicate waning bullish control and potentially invite additional selling pressure.
As long as the pair holds above $1.08049, the near-term bias remains slightly bullish—but momentum is fragile and driven by upcoming data catalysts.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trades just above key support at $1.08049, holding a slight bullish tilt.
- 50-day EMA at $1.08802 caps upside; breakout above $1.08680 could fuel momentum.
- Entry strategy: Buy above $1.08169, target $1.08869, stop loss at $1.07734.
EUR/USD is trading slightly lower at $1.08457, down 0.02% on the day, as the pair navigates a tight range ahead of key U.S. economic data later this week.
Despite the marginal pullback, the euro remains above the pivotal support at $1.08049—a level that continues to attract buying interest and has helped stabilize recent price action.
Technically, the 4-hour chart reveals that EUR/USD is caught between its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08802 and the pivot zone near $1.08049.
A clear move above the EMA could trigger fresh upside momentum toward immediate resistance at $1.08680, followed by $1.09177 and $1.09516.
These levels correspond to recent consolidation zones and would likely require increased volume to break decisively.
On the downside, should the pair slip below $1.08049, initial support rests at $1.07656, with deeper floors at $1.07214 and $1.06780. A breach below $1.07656 would indicate waning bullish control and potentially invite additional selling pressure.
As long as the pair holds above $1.08049, the near-term bias remains slightly bullish—but momentum is fragile and driven by upcoming data catalysts.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08169
Take Profit – 1.08869
Stop Loss – 1.07734
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$700/ -$435
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$70/ -$43
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish sentiment dominates below the pivot at $1.08553, targeting $1.08152 and $1.07895.
- The 50-day EMA at $1.08972 acts as key resistance, limiting any short-term upside.
- Entry Price: Sell below $1.08544, with a take profit at $1.08152 and stop loss at $1.08820.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08355, showing minimal movement as traders assess market conditions. The pair has been struggling to gain momentum, hovering below the 50-day EMA at $1.08972, which continues to act as dynamic resistance.
The pivot point at $1.08553 serves as an inflection level for today’s session, indicating that bearish momentum may persist if the pair remains below this threshold.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08838, with further hurdles at $1.09177 and $1.09516. A break above these levels could trigger fresh buying interest, but current sentiment remains cautious due to renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.08152, followed by $1.07895 and $1.07656. A sustained move below $1.08553 would confirm a bearish bias, pushing the pair toward these lower levels.
If sellers maintain control, EUR/USD could face extended downside pressure, with the 50-day EMA reinforcing resistance around $1.08972.
Traders should monitor $1.08544 as a key level, with selling opportunities below this price targeting $1.08152, while upside breakouts remain capped near $1.08838.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08544
Take Profit – 1.08152
Stop Loss – 1.08820
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$392/ -$276
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$39/ -$27
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained well offered around 1.0820. The pair faced pressure due to a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising concerns over trade tensions.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to around 104.15 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its restrictive stance on interest rates.
This dampened expectations of any near-term rate cuts, further supporting the USD and weighing on the euro. As a result, EUR/USD struggled to find demand and continued its bearish trajectory.
Fed’s Tight Policy and Economic Uncertainty Weigh on EUR/USD
On the US front, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row, maintaining them within the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there was no rush to cut rates, pointing to significant uncertainty in the US economic outlook.
His comments reinforced expectations that monetary policy would remain tight for an extended period, boosting the US Dollar and putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Furthermore, Powell cautioned that new policies under US President Donald Trump could slow economic growth and push inflation higher.
This has led market participants to anticipate potential policy changes that could impact global trade and inflation trends, adding to concerns in the financial markets.
The Fed’s tight policy stance and Powell’s warnings strengthened the US Dollar, making the euro less attractive. As a result, EUR/USD faced downward pressure, struggling to gain momentum amid economic uncertainty.
Euro Weakens Amid Concerns Over US Tariffs and Trade War Risks
On the other hand, the shared currency dropped further as investors reacted to concerns over Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs, which are set for discussion on April 2.
Market speculation suggests these tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, leading to higher inflation and slower economic growth.
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that a trade war with the US could hurt economic growth, even if its impact on inflation is temporary.
Investors are worried about Germany, a major exporter to the US, as Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on foreign cars.
Currently, the US charges only 2.5% on German cars, while the Eurozone imposes a 10% tax on US cars. These concerns have weakened the euro, keeping it under pressure against the stronger US Dollar.
Economic Developments and Market Outlook
On the economic front, investors are closely watching the upcoming US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, due on Monday, In Europe, the German government has approved a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund to boost economic resilience, with support from both the Conservatives and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This move is aimed at protecting the economy amid concerns over a potential trade war.
For the EUR/USD pair, the focus remains on the US economic data and how it may impact the US Dollar, while Europe's efforts to stabilize its economy could help support the euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08355, showing minimal movement as traders assess market conditions. The pair has been struggling to gain momentum, hovering below the 50-day EMA at $1.08972, which continues to act as dynamic resistance.
The pivot point at $1.08553 serves as an inflection level for today’s session, indicating that bearish momentum may persist if the pair remains below this threshold.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08838, with further hurdles at $1.09177 and $1.09516. A break above these levels could trigger fresh buying interest, but current sentiment remains cautious due to renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.08152, followed by $1.07895 and $1.07656. A sustained move below $1.08553 would confirm a bearish bias, pushing the pair toward these lower levels.
If sellers maintain control, EUR/USD could face extended downside pressure, with the 50-day EMA reinforcing resistance around $1.08972.
Traders should monitor $1.08544 as a key level, with selling opportunities below this price targeting $1.08152, while upside breakouts remain capped near $1.08838.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD remains bearish below $1.09505, with support at $1.09015 and $1.08735 in focus.
- 50-day EMA at $1.08945 is acting as a key support level, with a break below accelerating losses.
- A move above $1.09710 could trigger a rebound, but broader sentiment remains cautious.
EUR/USD is trading around $1.09246, slightly lower as the pair struggles to maintain upward momentum. The currency pair remains under pressure after failing to hold above its $1.09505 pivot point.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.09710, while a move beyond $1.09922 could pave the way for a test of $1.10130. However, with the euro showing signs of exhaustion, upside potential appears limited.
On the downside, $1.09015 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.08735 and $1.08472 if selling pressure intensifies. The 50-day EMA at $1.08945 is offering a dynamic support zone, but a break below this level could accelerate bearish momentum.
The pair is currently facing headwinds from shifting interest rate expectations in both the U.S. and Eurozone. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach toward rate cuts, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, has kept the dollar resilient.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank policymakers have signaled a potential easing cycle later in the year, keeping the euro subdued.
Traders should watch for a break below $1.09505, which could confirm further downside toward $1.09015 and $1.08735.
Conversely, a push above $1.09710 may trigger a short-term rally, but with macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on sentiment, sustained gains could be limited.
For now, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure. If the pair breaches $1.09015, expect sellers to gain control, potentially driving prices toward $1.08735 in the near term.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.09507
Take Profit – 1.09019
Stop Loss – 1.09704
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$488/ -$197
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$48/ -$19
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure around the 1.0873 level. However, the decline was driven by a strengthening US dollar, which gained momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Another factor weighing on the EUR/USD pair is the Euro's underperformance, despite Germany’s debt restructuring plan, which raises concerns about inflation and the European Central Bank's cautious approach to monetary expansion.
Impact of Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Market Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar gained traction as the CME FedWatch tool shows the Fed is likely to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the second consecutive meeting where the Fed chooses a "wait and see" approach, keeping borrowing rates unchanged.
Market expectations are high that the Fed will stay cautious, especially as they await more clarity on the US economic outlook under President Donald Trump. Investors are increasingly confident in this decision, anticipating no immediate changes to rates.
Euro Weakness Amidst Domestic and Geopolitical Developments
Despite Germany’s approval of a debt restructuring plan aimed at stimulating economic growth and increasing defense spending, the Euro underperformed, contributing to the decline in the EUR/USD pair. The plan is seen as pro-growth for the Eurozone, but it also raises concerns about inflationary pressures.
As the plan progresses, higher inflation could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a more cautious approach to its monetary policy, slowing down its current cycle of expansion.
The ECB has already reduced interest rates six times since June 2024, and the ongoing concerns about inflation have created uncertainty for the Eurozone's economic outlook. These factors combined are weighing heavily on the Euro, making it harder for the currency to gain support despite efforts to boost growth.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, and market participants are closely monitoring the ECB’s next moves.
Moreover, the impact of US tariff policies remains a significant concern, as President Trump's agenda could worsen price pressures in the Eurozone. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that each country will soon receive their specific "tariff" numbers, with April 2 set as an important date for these updates.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading around $1.09246, slightly lower as the pair struggles to maintain upward momentum. The currency pair remains under pressure after failing to hold above its $1.09505 pivot point.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.09710, while a move beyond $1.09922 could pave the way for a test of $1.10130. However, with the euro showing signs of exhaustion, upside potential appears limited.
On the downside, $1.09015 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.08735 and $1.08472 if selling pressure intensifies. The 50-day EMA at $1.08945 is offering a dynamic support zone, but a break below this level could accelerate bearish momentum.
The pair is currently facing headwinds from shifting interest rate expectations in both the U.S. and Eurozone. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach toward rate cuts, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, has kept the dollar resilient.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank policymakers have signaled a potential easing cycle later in the year, keeping the euro subdued.
Traders should watch for a break below $1.09505, which could confirm further downside toward $1.09015 and $1.08735.
Conversely, a push above $1.09710 may trigger a short-term rally, but with macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on sentiment, sustained gains could be limited.
For now, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure. If the pair breaches $1.09015, expect sellers to gain control, potentially driving prices toward $1.08735 in the near term.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD extended its upward trend and remained well bid around 1.0910 during European trading hours on Monday, as investors awaits for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision on Wednesday. The currency pair traded in a tight range as market participants sought clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Impact of Fed's Policy and Economic Uncertainty on EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing traction despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%.
However, investors are more focused on the Fed’s "dot plot," which gives clues about future rate changes. In the last meeting, Fed officials predicted three rate cuts this year, so traders will be watching closely to see if that changes.
Another key focus will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on economic growth, jobs, and inflation. If he hints at any shift in policy, it could impact the dollar and financial markets.
Meanwhile, uncertainty is rising due to concerns over potential tariff policies under former US President Donald Trump.
Adding to the worries, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently suggested that the government may need to adjust its spending to avoid financial risks. This has raised fears about possible economic disruptions in the coming months.
Therefore, the EUR/USD pair may strengthen if the Fed signals delayed rate cuts or economic concerns rise. However, uncertainty over US policies and spending risks could limit gains, keeping the pair volatile.
Euro Strengthens Amid German Fiscal Expansion and Geopolitical Developments
Across the ocean, the shared currency remained firm as German leaders agreed to establish a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and ease borrowing restrictions through changes in the ‘debt brake’ rule.
This move, expected to be approved in the lower house of Parliament on Tuesday, is seen as a significant step to boost economic growth.
However, the Reuters poll conducted from March 10-14 showed that economists raised their Eurozone growth forecasts for 2026 from 1.2% to 1.3%, reflecting optimism over Germany’s fiscal expansion.
Apart from this, positive developments in Russia-Ukraine peace talks have further supported the Euro. Donald Trump is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss a ceasefire, following Ukraine’s acceptance of a 30-day truce after negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
EUR/USD Faces Risks from US-EU Trade Tensions and Fed Policy Outlook
Despite EUR/USD’s recovery, the escalating trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) pose a risk to the Euro’s gains.
On Thursday, Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on European alcohol imports, retaliating against the EU’s proposed tariffs on US goods in response to a 25% levy on steel and aluminum.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that a full-scale trade war would negatively impact global economic growth, stating, “Trade war is bad news for the world economy, everyone loses in that situation.”
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08763, holding steady but slightly pressured below the $1.08844 pivot point. The pair is consolidating in a narrow range as traders await key economic cues, with immediate resistance at $1.09314 and support at $1.08297.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08839 is acting as a dynamic barrier, reinforcing a potential bearish outlook if price action fails to reclaim higher levels.
A break below $1.08844 could confirm downside pressure, with sellers eyeing the next support zones at $1.08297 and $1.07966.
A sharper decline could expose $1.07650, a level that aligns with previous demand zones. On the upside, if EUR/USD rebounds and breaks above $1.09314, bullish momentum could extend toward $1.09710 and $1.10065.
Traders should monitor $1.08844 closely. A sustained move below this level would reinforce selling momentum, while a recovery above $1.09314 could shift sentiment toward further gains.
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