EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD reclaims 50-EMA at $1.1362, supported by bullish engulfing candlesticks.
- RSI trends above 50, signaling a mild bullish bias without overbought conditions.
- Break above $1.1406 critical to extend rally toward $1.1442.
The EUR/USD pair is attempting a recovery after defending support at $1.1331. Prices are now pushing against the $1.1362 pivot zone, aided by a modest bullish crossover where the price reclaims the 50-EMA ($1.1362).
A clean hourly close above this level opens the path toward $1.1406, with bulls eyeing the higher range.
Candlestick behavior reveals a series of small-bodied candles followed by a bullish engulfing pattern near the pivot, suggesting strengthening momentum.
The RSI reading at 55.98, slightly above the neutral 50 level, indicates a growing bullish bias without being overbought, offering room for further upside.
There is no visible bearish divergence at this stage, reinforcing the upward momentum. Higher lows from the $1.1316 region further validate the emerging bullish structure.
However, $1.1406 remains a key resistance that needs a decisive break for continuation; failure here could trigger profit-taking.
In a broader context, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle, typically a bullish formation, and a break above the horizontal barrier could spark a measured move towards $1.1442.
Traders should monitor for three white soldiers formation or successive bullish candles confirming the breakout strength.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.13625
Take Profit – 1.14061
Stop Loss – 1.13311
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$436/ -$314
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$43/ -$31
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During early European trading hours on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a modest dip, trading near the 1.1350 level.
The pair's decline was primarily driven by the underperformance of the Euro (EUR), as investors await critical economic data from the Eurozone this week, including the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April and the Q1 GDP figures.
Therefore, the results of these reports are expected to significantly influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook.
EUR/USD Weakness Fueled by Eurozone Economic Data Expectations
On the EUR front, the shared currency has weakened due to expectations around upcoming economic data from the Eurozone.
Analysts predict that the Eurozone's headline HICP inflation will return to the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, marking the slowest price growth since October 2024. This follows a 2.2% increase in March.
Moreover, GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter for the first quarter of the year.
While moderate inflation and steady growth could suggest a more dovish stance from the ECB, traders are closely watching these figures, as they may increase expectations for an ECB rate cut in June.
In fact, some ECB policymakers are already expressing growing confidence in reducing rates as inflation eases.
However, there is still caution because of risks from global trade tensions, especially between the US and the Eurozone.
ECB policymaker Klaas Knot mentioned that while inflation is expected to decrease, the situation is complicated. US trade tariffs could reduce demand and cause prices to rise more slowly.
Impact of US Dollar Strength on GBP/USD Amid Economic Data and Trade Uncertainty
On the other hand, the US Dollar has managed to hold its ground amid mixed developments in global trade relations.
Despite mixed messages from Washington and Beijing, the Dollar remains strong because of overall market confidence. Investors are cautious, but the Dollar still gets support from the broader market outlook.
Moving ahead, the upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for later this week, is expected to be a major catalyst for the US Dollar.
Traders are closely watching the labor market figures, which could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy moves. Despite the uncertainty in global trade relations, the US economy remains relatively resilient, further supporting the USD’s strength.
Therefore, the US Dollar's strength, supported by positive economic data and market confidence, could pressure the GBP/USD pair, potentially pushing the Pound lower as traders adjust to stronger USD expectations.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is attempting a recovery after defending support at $1.1331. Prices are now pushing against the $1.1362 pivot zone, aided by a modest bullish crossover where the price reclaims the 50-EMA ($1.1362).
A clean hourly close above this level opens the path toward $1.1406, with bulls eyeing the higher range.
Candlestick behavior reveals a series of small-bodied candles followed by a bullish engulfing pattern near the pivot, suggesting strengthening momentum.
The RSI reading at 55.98, slightly above the neutral 50 level, indicates a growing bullish bias without being overbought, offering room for further upside.
There is no visible bearish divergence at this stage, reinforcing the upward momentum. Higher lows from the $1.1316 region further validate the emerging bullish structure.
However, $1.1406 remains a key resistance that needs a decisive break for continuation; failure here could trigger profit-taking.
In a broader context, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle, typically a bullish formation, and a break above the horizontal barrier could spark a measured move towards $1.1442.
Traders should monitor for three white soldiers formation or successive bullish candles confirming the breakout strength.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair traded lower near 1.1350 as the US Dollar (USD) gained strength. This was due to increasing optimism about possible improvements in US-China trade relations.
Moreover, the Euro's weakness was also driven by concerns about the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy, with growing speculation that the ECB might cut interest rates soon.
US Dollar Strengthened by Optimism Over US-China Trade Talks
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's value against six major currencies, rebounded from a previous correction near 99.20 and surged back towards 99.65, eyeing the weekly high of around 100.00.
This recovery was driven by optimism in the financial markets that the trade war between the US and China may de-escalate.
Bloomberg reported that China is considering suspending the 125% tariff on US medical equipment and industrial chemicals. US President Donald Trump echoed this sentiment, stating that trade talks with Beijing were progressing positively, and expressing hope that a deal could be reached soon.
Despite these signs of progress, China denied that any significant economic and trade negotiations were taking place. A Chinese spokesperson clarified that the US would need to completely cancel all unilateral tariffs if trade talks were to continue.
These mixed signals from both countries have added to the market’s uncertainty, yet the initial optimism over potential trade de-escalation continues to support the US Dollar’s strength.
Euro Under Pressure Amid ECB Concerns on Inflation and Economic Outlook
On the Eurozone front, the Euro came under pressure as concerns about the ECB’s monetary policy outlook mounted. ECB policymakers have expressed increasing worry about the region’s economic prospects, particularly the risk of inflation undershooting the central bank’s 2% target.
Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn highlighted these concerns, stating that inflation projections could remain below target in the medium term and suggesting that current circumstances might justify an interest rate cut in June.
Looking ahead, the future direction of EUR/USD will likely be influenced by developments in both US-China trade relations and the ECB’s monetary policy stance.
While the US Dollar could continue to gain strength on optimism surrounding trade talks, concerns about inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone are likely to weigh on the Euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is currently testing the lower boundary of a descending wedge, reinforced by a bullish harmonic pattern (likely a bullish Gartley) forming at point D near $1.13085.
Price action has been contained within the wedge since April 19, and recent support at $1.1309 marks a potential reversal zone. A bullish bias emerges if the pair breaks decisively above $1.13092.
Candle structure supports this view, with buyers repeatedly defending the 1.1300 zone. A clean break above the wedge resistance could push prices toward the 50-hour SMA at $1.13596, followed by the next key level at $1.13962.
The 50 SMA continues to slope downward but is flattening—an early sign of potential crossover reversal if bullish momentum accelerates.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is printing 39.03, rising from oversold territory. While no bullish divergence is confirmed yet, the oscillator’s uptick indicates waning bearish momentum. Additionally, the recent hammer and spinning top near support add to bullish reversal cues.
A failure to hold above $1.13085 may invalidate the bullish setup, exposing the pair to deeper losses toward $1.12788 and ultimately $1.12666.
However, the harmonic completion and wedge compression suggest an imminent volatility breakout, favoring bullish scenarios if volume confirms.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish harmonic pattern completes near $1.13085 with wedge support.
- RSI climbing from oversold; price nearing 50 EMA.
- Confirmation above $1.13092 opens path to $1.13588 and $1.13962.
The EUR/USD is currently testing the lower boundary of a descending wedge, reinforced by a bullish harmonic pattern (likely a bullish Gartley) forming at point D near $1.13085.
Price action has been contained within the wedge since April 19, and recent support at $1.1309 marks a potential reversal zone. A bullish bias emerges if the pair breaks decisively above $1.13092.
Candle structure supports this view, with buyers repeatedly defending the 1.1300 zone. A clean break above the wedge resistance could push prices toward the 50-hour SMA at $1.13596, followed by the next key level at $1.13962.
The 50 SMA continues to slope downward but is flattening—an early sign of potential crossover reversal if bullish momentum accelerates.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is printing 39.03, rising from oversold territory. While no bullish divergence is confirmed yet, the oscillator’s uptick indicates waning bearish momentum. Additionally, the recent hammer and spinning top near support add to bullish reversal cues.
A failure to hold above $1.13085 may invalidate the bullish setup, exposing the pair to deeper losses toward $1.12788 and ultimately $1.12666.
However, the harmonic completion and wedge compression suggest an imminent volatility breakout, favoring bullish scenarios if volume confirms.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.13092
Take Profit – 1.13588
Stop Loss – 1.12788
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$496/ -$304
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$49/ -$30
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 23, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remains under pressure below the 1.1400 mark during the European trading session. However, the reason for its bearish rally can be linked to the stronger US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD’s value against six major currencies, has climbed back to around 99.30 from its low of 98.00.
However, the strength of the Greenback can be attributed to several factors, including improved market sentiment towards the USD following US President Donald Trump’s statements and ongoing economic concerns in the Eurozone.
US Dollar Strengthens as Trump Expresses Optimism and Safeguards Fed’s Autonomy
On the US front, the US Dollar has regained traction as President Donald Trump expressed confidence in finalizing a trade deal with China. His remarks on trade negotiations, though not providing details about potential tariff reductions, helped to stabilize the market sentiment.
Furthermore, Trump's statement about not intending to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell despite previous criticisms provided a sense of reassurance.
This has alleviated some concerns over the US Dollar’s credibility, which had been under pressure due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and the Fed’s monetary stance.
However, Trump also voiced his frustration with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, creating a tug-of-war between the executive and the central bank. Despite this, the overall sentiment remains positive for the USD, benefiting from its safe-haven status amid global uncertainties.
Euro Under Pressure Amid Weak Economic Data and ECB Rate Cut Speculations
On the flip side, the Euro has come under pressure as economic data from the Eurozone paints a grim picture. Preliminary April data from Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) revealed a decline in business activity, with the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 50.1 from 50.9 in March.
Hence, the reading below 50.0 would indicate contraction, though the Eurozone economy has just avoided this threshold. Notably, the Service PMI dropped unexpectedly to 49.7, showing that the service sector is weakening more than anticipated.
The Manufacturing PMI, however, performed slightly better, coming in at 48.7, signaling slower-than-expected contraction.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on the Euro
As a result of the weaker economic performance and persistent inflation concerns, market participants are growing increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) may opt for another rate cut in its upcoming June policy meeting.
ECB President Christine Lagarde recently mentioned that inflation might return to 2% by the end of the year, which has led to more speculation about rate cuts. Although Lagarde didn't confirm this directly, the chances of further rate cuts are putting pressure on the Euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has shifted to a bearish bias after failing to hold above the 50-period SMA at 1.1431. The pair has broken below key support at 1.1403, which is now acting as short-term resistance.
This breakdown, paired with the rejection from the $1.1450 zone, suggests bearish continuation if price sustains below the 1.1403 pivot.
The RSI reading at 39.25 confirms momentum has turned bearish, with room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.
The recent bearish candlestick pattern (a strong red candle closing below the 50-SMA and horizontal support) provides additional confirmation of the trend shift.
The pair is now eyeing a retest of the rising trendline support near 1.1309. If that breaks, the next support lies at 1.1265. On the flip side, a close above 1.1451 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a possible rebound.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Break of 50-SMA & Support: 1.1403 now resistance after failed hold, trend bias turns bearish.
- Bearish Candles: Strong sell-off candle adds confirmation below structure and SMA.
- Momentum Favors Sellers: RSI near 39 with room for more downside.
EUR/USD has shifted to a bearish bias after failing to hold above the 50-period SMA at 1.1431. The pair has broken below key support at 1.1403, which is now acting as short-term resistance.
This breakdown, paired with the rejection from the $1.1450 zone, suggests bearish continuation if price sustains below the 1.1403 pivot.
The RSI reading at 39.25 confirms momentum has turned bearish, with room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.
The recent bearish candlestick pattern (a strong red candle closing below the 50-SMA and horizontal support) provides additional confirmation of the trend shift.
The pair is now eyeing a retest of the rising trendline support near 1.1309. If that breaks, the next support lies at 1.1265. On the flip side, a close above 1.1451 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a possible rebound.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.14034
Take Profit – 1.13099
Stop Loss – 1.14515
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$935/ -$481
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$93/ -$48
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Rejection at Resistance: Price stalls at 1.1532, showing signs of a possible correction.
- Overbought RSI: Reading of 76 indicates stretched buying, favoring short-term pullback.
- Fibonacci Support: 1.1478 (38.2% level) is the first target on a downside move.
EUR/USD surged above key resistance near 1.1470, but the pair is now facing selling pressure just below 1.1533 — the recent high.
Price has rejected the upper trendline of the rising channel and is forming a potential bearish setup, especially if it closes below 1.1532. A retracement toward 1.1478 could be underway, aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci support.
The RSI currently stands at 76.04, firmly in overbought territory. This suggests a short-term pullback is likely as bullish momentum cools off.
Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA at 1.1369 continues to trend upward, indicating the medium-term structure remains supportive of dips being bought — though some profit-taking is expected in the near term.
If the pair breaks below 1.1532, bearish confirmation could open the door to a correction toward 1.1478, with deeper support at 1.1459. A move above 1.1559 would invalidate the bearish view and resume the upward breakout toward 1.1598.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.15325
Take Profit – 1.14786
Stop Loss – 1.15598
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$539/ -$273
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$53/ -$27
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The euro rose to its highest level in over three years on Monday, near $1.1575 against the US dollar as political uncertainty in Washington weighed on the greenback.
This is the latest in a trend reversal for the euro, driven by a broad decline in the US Dollar Index which fell to a three year low near 98.00.
Much of the dollar’s weakness is due to the uncertainty around Federal Reserve leadership. President Donald Trump’s public dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Jerome Powell – including direct suggestions of termination – has raised concerns about the Fed’s independence and the entire US monetary policy framework.
On Friday, Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates despite easing inflationary pressures. “The Fed really owes it to the American people to get interest rates down… If I want him out of there, he’ll be out real fast,” Trump said.
The administration’s economic team, led by adviser Kevin Hassett, has confirmed they are looking into legal ways to remove Powell.
Policy Uncertainty Drives Dollar Down
The market has reacted quickly. Investors are now factoring in the risk of political interference in central banking decisions – a dynamic that undermines one of the key pillars of the dollar’s safe-haven status.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned over the weekend that challenging the Fed’s independence could have long term economic consequences.
In an interview he said: “We should not put ourselves in a situation where monetary independence is in question.” Nations with politically neutral central banks tend to see stronger, more stable economic outcomes.
With eurozone inflation slowing and the ECB being cautious, the big move in EUR/USD is less about the eurozone and more about the decline in US institutions. Traders will now focus on ECB comments and PMI releases this week.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD surged above key resistance near 1.1470, but the pair is now facing selling pressure just below 1.1533 — the recent high.
Price has rejected the upper trendline of the rising channel and is forming a potential bearish setup, especially if it closes below 1.1532. A retracement toward 1.1478 could be underway, aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci support.
The RSI currently stands at 76.04, firmly in overbought territory. This suggests a short-term pullback is likely as bullish momentum cools off.
Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA at 1.1369 continues to trend upward, indicating the medium-term structure remains supportive of dips being bought — though some profit-taking is expected in the near term.
If the pair breaks below 1.1532, bearish confirmation could open the door to a correction toward 1.1478, with deeper support at 1.1459. A move above 1.1559 would invalidate the bearish view and resume the upward breakout toward 1.1598.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Triangle Pattern: Price consolidates near apex; breakout likely soon.
- Support Near 1.1344: Key level aligning with SMA and triangle base.
- Momentum Neutral-Bullish: RSI above 50, signaling mild buyer control.
EUR/USD continues to coil within a tightening symmetrical triangle, with price hovering around the 1.1370 level. This consolidation phase suggests a breakout is imminent, as the pair trades near converging trendlines while holding above the 50-period SMA at 1.1353. The structure remains neutral, but a dip to the 1.1344–1.1350 region may provide a buy-the-dip opportunity.
The 50-SMA has turned higher, offering support in line with the lower triangle boundary. The RSI is at 54.31, indicating balanced momentum with slight bullish bias. A bounce from the buy zone could trigger upside toward 1.1416, with further extension to 1.1427 if volume confirms.
Should price break below 1.1344, the setup weakens, and downside toward 1.1318 and potentially 1.1304 could follow. A confirmed breakout above triangle resistance, however, could validate a push toward the 1.1470 area in the coming sessions.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.13446
Take Profit – 1.14156
Stop Loss – 1.13183
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$710/ -$263
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$71/ -$26
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair attracted some buying interest near 1.1380 level.
However, the major driver of the pair's upward movement is the ongoing concerns over the economic impact of tariffs, which continue to weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR).
Moreover, the gains could be short-lived as the European Central Bank's recent rate cut to 2.25% weighs on the Euro. This dovish move, coupled with ongoing trade tensions, limits the Euro’s potential for further strength.
EUR/USD Finds Support from ECB's Rate Cut and Dovish Outlook
The European Central Bank (ECB) made headlines with its decision to cut interest rates for the third time this year, bringing its main interest rate to 2.25%.
This move was prompted by slowing economic growth in the Eurozone, worsened by the impact of US tariffs on European goods.
ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that tariffs, which have surged from an average of 3% to 13%, are weighing on the European economy's outlook.
Despite the dovish stance, the Euro has managed to hold its ground. The ECB's rate cut has led to concerns over the Euro’s long-term strength, with analysts speculating that further cuts could follow in June. However, the Euro’s resilience stems from ongoing trade tensions, which continue to pressure the US Dollar.
While the ECB remains focused on downside risks to growth, the Euro's positive movement, albeit limited, reflects cautious optimism in the face of broader economic challenges.
Fed's Hawkish Stance and USD Pressure
On the other side of the Atlantic, the US Dollar has faced pressure despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent hawkish comments. Powell warned that the US economy could face stagflation—slowing growth combined with high inflation—which reduced the chances of a rate cut in June.
While this initially supported the USD, ongoing trade tensions and broader economic uncertainty have since weighed on the currency, allowing the Euro to gain some ground.
Despite this, money market traders are still pricing in nearly 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This long-term outlook for rate cuts has led to continued weakness in the USD, providing support for the EUR/USD pair in the medium term.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD continues to coil within a tightening symmetrical triangle, with price hovering around the 1.1370 level. This consolidation phase suggests a breakout is imminent, as the pair trades near converging trendlines while holding above the 50-period SMA at 1.1353. The structure remains neutral, but a dip to the 1.1344–1.1350 region may provide a buy-the-dip opportunity.
The 50-SMA has turned higher, offering support in line with the lower triangle boundary. The RSI is at 54.31, indicating balanced momentum with slight bullish bias. A bounce from the buy zone could trigger upside toward 1.1416, with further extension to 1.1427 if volume confirms.
Should price break below 1.1344, the setup weakens, and downside toward 1.1318 and potentially 1.1304 could follow. A confirmed breakout above triangle resistance, however, could validate a push toward the 1.1470 area in the coming sessions.
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