GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 21, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) has maintained its bullish trend for the fourth day and remained well-bid around the 2,662 level, However, the ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have been a major driver behind this bullish trend, as investors seek the safety of gold amid growing geopolitical risks.
On top of that, a weaker US Dollar has also helped push gold prices higher. This combination of factors has supported gold’s steady rise throughout the week.
Investors are worried that President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could drive up inflation, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
There are also concerns that his tax cuts, funded by debt, could lead to larger budget deficits, keeping US Treasury bond yields high. This could boost the US Dollar and make traders less likely to bet heavily on gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
US Dollar Strength and Rising Bond Yields Weigh on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar managed to stay strong, supported by worries that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could boost inflation and limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.
Recently, several key Fed officials, including Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman, warned that the central bank may have to slow or pause its rate cuts if inflation progress stalls.
This caution from the Fed has kept US Treasury bond yields high, helping to keep the Dollar near its year-to-date high. As a result, the possibility of further rate cuts seems uncertain, which is adding to the strength of the Greenback.
In addition, the yield on the 10-year US government bond rose sharply this week, which, combined with a positive market sentiment, is putting pressure on gold prices.
Investors will be closely watching upcoming US economic data, including jobless claims and home sales, as well as speeches from Fed officials for clues about the future of rate cuts.
These factors will likely influence the Dollar and impact gold’s performance, as gold, being a non-yielding asset, tends to struggle when bond yields and the Dollar rise.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,660.89, up 0.39% for the day, supported by strong bullish sentiment on the 4-hour chart. Prices remain comfortably above the pivot point at $2,646, suggesting sustained momentum.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,675.25, followed by $2,691.73 and $2,711.09, as gold continues to push toward higher levels amid global uncertainty and robust safe-haven demand.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,619.22, with additional levels at $2,592.86 and $2,571.02 providing safety nets for potential retracements. The RSI is currently at 73, indicating overbought conditions, though the strong trend suggests this may persist in the short term.
The 50-day EMA at $2,613.76 offers solid support, reinforcing the bullish case. Traders are advised to monitor the $2,646 pivot closely, as a break below this level could reverse the trend and open the door to sharper declines toward $2,619 or lower.
A potential entry point is identified at $2,646, with a suggested stop loss at $2,630 to manage downside risks. Profit targets are set at $2,674 and above, as technical indicators align with bullish market conditions.
Overall, gold’s technical landscape remains favorable above $2,646, bolstered by geopolitical risks and investor appetite for safe-haven assets. Traders should watch resistance at $2,691.73 for confirmation of further upside momentum.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 20, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to struggle, staying weak around the $2,624 mark on Wednesday. Despite this sluggish trend, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions still support gold as a safe-haven asset.
However, easing concerns about a potential nuclear war and the strong performance of the US dollar are keeping gold's gains in check.
Investors are growing more optimistic that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will drive economic growth and inflation, making it less likely for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
This has led to higher US Treasury bond yields, boosting the US dollar and putting pressure on gold. As a result, traders are staying cautious, waiting for upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials to get a clearer picture of future monetary policy.
Stronger US Dollar and Rising Treasury Yields Weigh on Gold's Outlook
On the US front, the dollar has been gaining strength, fueled by market expectations of potential tariffs and tax cuts under the incoming Trump administration. These measures are expected to drive up inflation, making it less likely for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the future. As a result, the stronger dollar has added pressure on gold, contributing to its recent losses.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders now see less than a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. At the same time, US Treasury yields are climbing, keeping the dollar strong and limiting gold's (XAU/USD) potential for gains.
Investors are also keeping a close eye on speeches from key FOMC members today, hoping for insights into the Fed's rate plans, which could influence gold’s next move.
Therefore, the stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields are pressuring gold prices, limiting its upside potential. Reduced rate cut expectations and investor focus on FOMC speeches further weigh on gold, as monetary policy clarity could impact its safe-haven appeal.
Geopolitical Tensions and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Drive Increased Demand for Gold
On the other hand, rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict, are increasing gold's appeal as a safe-haven investment. Investors are concerned about the situation escalating, leading more money into gold. Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin updated the country's nuclear policy, outlining when Russia might consider using nuclear weapons.
In response, Ukraine, with US support, launched ATACMS missiles at a Russian military site near Bryansk. Despite the escalating tensions, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reassured that Russia is focused on avoiding nuclear war, while the White House confirmed no changes to its own nuclear stance.
Therefore, the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising geopolitical tensions are boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven investment. Investors, concerned about further escalation, are increasingly turning to gold, driving demand and supporting its value amid uncertainty.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices (XAU/USD) are trading at $2,629.60, down 0.09% as bearish momentum emerges below the pivot point at $2,640.77. Immediate resistance is positioned at $2,663.57, with higher barriers at $2,684.85 and $2,707.65, forming a challenging upward path.
The 50-day EMA at $2,593.63 aligns with the immediate support level of $2,612.40, providing key downside protection. Additional support levels include $2,590.11 and $2,561.23.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 suggests neutral momentum, leaving room for further selling pressure if prices fail to reclaim $2,640.77. A break below $2,612.40 would likely intensify the downward trajectory, targeting $2,590.11.
Conversely, a sustained push above $2,663.57 could signal renewed bullish interest, but near-term sentiment leans bearish.
Traders are advised to consider selling below $2,641, targeting $2,598 with a stop loss at $2,664. With the strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields weighing on gold, the path of least resistance appears downward.
Gold is bearish below $2,641, with selling opportunities targeting $2,598. A break below $2,612.40 could accelerate losses, while resistance at $2,663.57 holds the key to any bullish recovery.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 20, 2024
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 20, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During Wednesday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward trend, dropping to around 1.0555 level. However, the pair weakens as the US dollar gained strength, supported by expectations of fewer interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its ongoing policy-easing cycle.
Moreover, the EUR/USD losses accelerated further amid growing negative sentiment towards the Eurozone, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, a weakening economic outlook, and political uncertainty in Germany.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Slower Fed Rate Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions, Pressuring EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar strengthened as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates more slowly. Experts predict a rebound in US inflation and faster economic growth, especially with President-elect Donald Trump's victory.
Trump’s plans to raise import tariffs by 10% and lower taxes could limit the Fed’s ability to make deeper rate cuts. For December, the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to the 4.25%-4.50% range, though this decision is still uncertain, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.
Moreover, the Greenback gained further traction after Russian President Putin's approval to revise nuclear doctrine in response to the US's approval of long-range missiles for Ukraine. This boosted demand for the USD as a safe haven. However, safe-haven demand weakened after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia would avoid nuclear war if possible.
Therefore, the bullish US Dollar, driven by expectations of slower Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, puts pressure on the EUR/USD pair. As the USD gains, the EUR/USD continues to weaken, reflecting negative sentiment towards the Eurozone and broader market uncertainty.
EUR/USD Struggles Amid Weak Eurozone Outlook and ECB Policy Focus on Growth
On the EUR front, the losses in the EUR/USD pair bolstered further by negative sentiment surrounding the Eurozone weighed on the currency. However, the geopolitical tensions, weak economic outlook, and uncertainty in German politics contributed to the Euro’s struggle. European Central Bank (ECB) officials are more focused on supporting growth than controlling inflation.
ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta stated that since inflation is close to the target and domestic demand is weak, there is no need for strict monetary policies. He also warned that if the economy doesn't improve, inflation could stay below the ECB’s target.
Looking ahead, the ECB is expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 3% in its December meeting. This would be the fourth interest rate cut this year and the third consecutive one.
In addition, recent data showed that Eurozone wage growth, measured by Negotiated Wage Rates, increased to 5.42% in Q3, up from 3.54% in the previous quarter.
This wage growth could help boost consumer spending, but it also highlights ongoing challenges in the Eurozone economy. As a result, the EUR continues to face pressure, limiting its recovery against the USD.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.05874, down 0.06%, with bearish sentiment as the pair holds below the pivot point at $1.06083. Immediate resistance is positioned at $1.06367, with further resistance levels at $1.06620 and $1.06874, marking potential reversal zones for a bullish recovery.
The 50-day EMA at $1.05623 aligns closely with immediate support at $1.05472, forming a key short-term floor. Deeper support levels include $1.05176 and $1.04867, providing targets for sellers if the bearish trend persists.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52, reflecting neutral momentum with no clear overbought or oversold signals. The pair is trading above the 50-day EMA, suggesting slight underlying bullish strength, but failure to break above $1.06083 could trigger a retreat.
Traders should watch the $1.05793 pivot closely—staying above this level favors bullish strategies, while a sustained break below $1.05472 would open the door for deeper corrections.
For now, a buy position above $1.05793 is recommended, targeting $1.06254 with a stop loss at $1.05565. However, sustained resistance at $1.06083 could limit gains, keeping the pair in a tight trading range.
EUR/USD remains range-bound below $1.06083, with opportunities for buying above $1.05793. However, failure to clear resistance levels could prompt further selling toward $1.05176.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Nov 20, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair struggled to maintain its bullish momentum and dropped to around the 1.2663 level, hitting an intraday low of 1.2649. This decline occurred despite stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK.
However, the GBP/USD pair surrendered its gains as the US Dollar regained strength. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to approximately 106.50, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement fewer interest rate cuts in 2025.
BoE's Inflation Concerns Spark Shift in Rate Cut Expectations for December
On the data front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed that annual inflation jumped to 2.3%, higher than the 2.2% forecast and the previous month's 1.7%. Compared to September, inflation rose by 0.6%, exceeding the expected 0.5% increase.
Core CPI, which excludes food, energy, oil, and tobacco, grew by 3.3%, higher than the previous 3.2% and above the 3.1% expected. Services inflation, which the Bank of England (BoE) closely monitors, also rose to 5% from 4.9%.
As a result, traders have started to rethink expectations for future interest rate cuts by the BoE. Just a day earlier, markets had priced in an 80% chance that the BoE would cut rates by 25 basis points in December.
Several BoE policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, warned that inflation pressures are still strong. Bailey said that services inflation is too high to reach the BoE's target, and Catherine Mann, a BoE member known for her hawkish stance, pointed out that the BoE may struggle to bring inflation down to 2% anytime soon. These comments suggest the BoE might delay rate cuts if inflation remains stubborn.
Impact of Stronger US Dollar and Diminished Fed Rate Cut Expectations on GBP/USD
On the US front, the GBP/USD pair lost its gains as the US Dollar strengthened sharply, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising to around 106.50. This increase came from expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a slower approach to interest rate cuts in 2025.
With President-elect Donald Trump about to take office, markets believe his policies, such as higher import tariffs and lower taxes, will boost the US economy, raising inflation and encouraging domestic demand and employment. This is causing investors to adjust their expectations for future Fed rate cuts.
As a result, the chances of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December have dropped from over 82% last week to 59%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This shift in expectations followed remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said the economy isn’t showing signs that the central bank needs to rush into rate cuts.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for November, which is due on Friday. The data is expected to show growth in the US private sector, while activity in the UK is expected to remain steady.
Therefore, the strengthening US Dollar and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts in December have put downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair, leading to a loss of gains and a pullback from higher levels.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.27004, up 0.18%, showing modest bullish momentum as it hovers near the pivot point at $1.27205. Immediate resistance lies at $1.27565, followed by $1.27926, marking key levels for potential upward continuation.
The 50-day EMA at $1.26601 acts as a critical support zone, closely aligned with the immediate support level at $1.26714. Further downside support levels to watch are $1.26272 and $1.25630.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61, suggesting that bullish momentum is gaining traction but remains below overbought conditions. The pair is trading above the 50-day EMA, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias. However, failure to sustain above $1.27205 could push prices back toward support zones, risking a shift in sentiment.
Traders are advised to consider buying above $1.26814, targeting $1.27281 with a stop loss at $1.26592. A sustained break above $1.27565 could confirm further gains, while a move below $1.26714 would test the pair’s resilience.
GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias above $1.27205, targeting $1.27565. A break above resistance could signal further gains, while failure to hold above $1.26714 may shift the trend to bearish.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Nov 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) November Meeting Minutes on Tuesday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) remained stable against the US Dollar (USD). According to the minutes, the RBA board is concerned about the possibility of increased inflationary pressures, which underlined the importance of restrictive monetary policy.
Despite recent aggressive pronouncements by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, the US Dollar (USD) is in a downward correction. However, the Greenback's downside may be limited since investors expect the next Trump administration to prioritize tax cuts and raise tariffs. These policies may increase inflation, limiting the pace of Fed rate decreases.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the USD against a basket of currencies, is presently trading at approximately 106.27. The greenback is struggling to gain ground as the Trump trade appears to be losing steam. However, stronger US economic statistics and cautionary words from the Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit the downside for the USD in the immediate term.
Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Maintains Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates
The Australian Dollar strengthened following hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates at 4.35%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasised that existing interest rates are adequately restrictive and will remain so until the central bank is confident in its inflation forecast.
Potential Impact of US-China Trade Tensions on the Australian Dollar
On the Australian front, Donald Trump has threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese products in order to defend US companies and employment. Because China is Australia's largest trading partner, the probable negative spillovers from Trump's policies may cause the Australian Dollar (AUD) to fall.
Meanwhile, China's retail sales increased by 4.8% year on year in October, exceeding the projected 3.8% and the 3.2% growth witnessed in September. Meanwhile, industrial production increased by 5.3% year on year, falling short of the predicted 5.6% and the 5.4% growth seen in the prior period.
Australia's Labor Market Steady, Inflation Expectations Decline
On the economic front, Australia's most recent labour market report showed that the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1% in October, with a minor gain in employment of 15.9K, all of which supported the perception of a relatively strong labour market.
Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October, matching market expectations. However, employment change data revealed that just 15.9K new positions were created in October, falling short of the expected 25.0K.
Consumer inflation expectations in Australia fell to 3.8% in November, down from 4.0% the previous month, and reached their lowest level since October 2021.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.65108, up 0.05% as modest bullish momentum dominates the 4-hour chart. The pair is currently holding above the pivot point at $0.64941, signaling a constructive tone.
The 50-day EMA at $0.64805 reinforces the bullish outlook, acting as a dynamic support level, while the RSI at 62 suggests the pair has room for further upside before entering overbought territory. A successful test and hold above $0.64941 could set the stage for an advance toward $0.65463 in the short term, but a failure to maintain this level might lead to a deeper correction.
Traders may look to initiate long positions near the pivot point at $0.64944, targeting $0.65463 with a stop-loss placed at $0.64513 to manage downside risks effectively. However, caution is warranted as the broader market sentiment remains influenced by global risk factors and economic data releases.
Consider a buy limit at $0.64944, with a take-profit target at $0.65463 and a stop-loss at $0.64513 to capitalize on the bullish potential while managing downside risks.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – Nov 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The Canadian dollar is gaining momentum ahead of today's crucial inflation report, with USD/CAD indicating a possible turnaround to start the week.
However, whether this momentum lasts beyond the near term will most likely be determined by adjustments in US interest rate expectations rather than domestic causes.
The USD/CAD is traded currently at 1.402 with 0.09% increase from yesterday. Markets expect Donald Trump's administration to revive inflation and halt the Federal Reserve's rate decreases.
This, in turn, adds to the USD's gains. Futures markets suggest a 58.7% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, however expectations for rate cuts through 2025 have dropped to 77 basis points (bps).
Geopolitical Tensions Boost US Dollar
The return of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and on the Russia-Ukraine front bolsters safe-haven currencies such as the Greenback. CNN News claimed on Sunday, citing two US sources, that US President Joe Biden's administration had authorised Ukraine to use US armaments to strike inside Russia, a significant shift in Washington's attitude towards the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Investors will keep an eye on developments related to geopolitical threats. Any hints of escalation may cause the US Dollar (USD) to rise against the Loonie.
Inflation Report in Focus as BoC Faces Key Decisions on Rate Cuts
Today's inflation report stands out amid a lacklustre global data week. The annual CPI rate is predicted to rise from 1.6% to 1.9% in October, approaching the middle of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) 1-3% target range. Core inflation, which is the average of Statistics Canada's trim and median CPI estimates, is predicted to be 2.4%, slightly higher than September's rate.
With the BoC expecting core inflation of 2.3% by December, a result that meets market expectations should do little to dampen the belief that further rate cuts are on the way. However, if an upside surprise occurs, the Bank of Canada may begin to decrease the rate of easing.
In the policy statement released on October 23, the BoC stated that the timing and speed of additional policy rate cuts will be determined by "incoming information and our estimation of its implications for the inflation outlook.
BoC Easing Cycle: Quick Start, Sluggish End
Swaps markets are divided on whether the Bank of Canada would drop interest rates by another 50 basis points at its next meeting, following the reduction in October. Traders are currently leaning towards a lower 25-point cut, with a 50-point move seen as a 44% probability.
Looking further ahead, the easing cycle is projected to slow significantly. Markets are pricing in a cumulative 88 basis point decrease by September 2025, indicating a more gradual approach.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading at $1.40166, down 0.02%, as bearish momentum takes hold on the 4-hour chart. The pair is currently below the pivot point at $1.40263, signaling potential downward pressure.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.40489, followed by $1.40711 and $1.41016, which could act as hurdles for any rebound attempts. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.39888, with further levels at $1.39599 and $1.39303 providing key zones for bearish targets.
The 50-day EMA at $1.40329 adds to the resistance, reflecting near-term selling bias. Meanwhile, the RSI at 39 highlights bearish momentum but suggests the pair is nearing oversold conditions, which could trigger short-term consolidation. If USD/CAD breaks below $1.39888, it could test $1.39599, but a reversal above $1.40263 would shift the focus back to resistance at $1.40489.
For traders, short positions below $1.40260 align with the bearish outlook. A take-profit at $1.39882 offers a reasonable target, while a stop-loss at $1.40490 helps manage risk.
Selling below $1.40260 with a take-profit at $1.39882 and a stop-loss at $1.40490 aligns with the bearish trend while offering balanced risk management.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 19, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices rose for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, reaching a one-week high as the U.S. dollar retreated from its recent rally. The dollar's pullback, driven by profit-taking after reaching a one-year high last week, made gold more affordable for international buyers.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted, "The selling has run out of steam, and that's attracting cautious buyers waiting for stability to re-enter the market."
Gold, often seen as a hedge in times of currency weakness, benefited from this shift as traders speculated on potential interest rate cuts.
Fed Rate Policy and Key Data in Focus
Market participants are closely monitoring Federal Reserve officials' comments this week for clues on monetary policy. Currently, traders see a 58.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, compared to a 41.1% chance of rates staying steady. Interest rate reductions generally favor gold, which thrives in low-rate environments due to its non-yielding nature.
U.S. economic releases, including Building Permits (forecast at 1.44M, previous 1.43M) and Housing Starts (forecast at 1.34M, previous 1.35M), may also influence investor sentiment as they shed light on economic resilience.
Geopolitical Tensions Add to Bullish Case
Rising geopolitical risks further supported gold. Russia's largest airstrike on Ukraine in nearly three months heightened safe-haven demand for the metal. Historically, gold performs well during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, offering a haven for investors seeking stability.
Meanwhile, palladium struggled with a bearish outlook. UBS analysts pointed out, "Palladium is projected to be oversupplied due to declining demand from the autocatalyst sector," further shifting investor focus toward gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,620.82, up 0.34%, supported by strong bullish sentiment on the 4-hour chart. The metal remains below the pivot point at $2,627.63, which serves as a key decision level.
A break above this pivot could drive prices toward immediate resistance at $2,654.35, with further targets at $2,678.91 and $2,707.57, indicating the potential for a sustained rally.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,591.93, with additional levels at $2,561.74 and $2,537.16 offering key protection zones for bulls. The 50-day EMA at $2,583.72 reinforces upward momentum, aligning with the broader bullish trend.
However, the RSI at 67 signals the approach of overbought territory, which could trigger a pullback if resistance near the pivot holds.
For traders, maintaining a cautious approach is advisable. A failure to clear $2,627.63 may prompt selling pressure, with prices likely testing $2,591.93 in the short term.
Conversely, a confirmed breakout above $2,627.63 could pave the way for a challenge of the $2,654.35 level. Setting tight stop losses and monitoring volume near key levels will be critical to managing risk effectively.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 18, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD Finds stability Ahead of ECB Lagarde's speech
EUR/USD Remains Above 1.0500
The ECB and Fed policy decisions are still unclear, hence the EUR/USD pair is trading roughly above the important support level of 1.0500. The recent surge in the US dollar has slowed after reaching an annual high, giving the euro some leeway. A push above 107.00 is sought by the US Dollar Index which compares the US dollar to other major currencies.
Trump's Policies Increase Uncertainty in the Market
Investors are keeping a careful eye on how Donald Trump's trade proposals might affect international markets. The USD may gain more strength, according to analysts, as Trump pursues an aggressive trade policy and more tariffs. The US economy has performed well in comparison to its counterparts, and Capital Economics economists now predict a 5% increase in the value of the dollar by the end of 2025.
Highlights of ECB Lagarde's Speech
This week's major event for traders is ECB President Christine Lagarde's address in Paris. Lagarde is going to discuss the possible effects of Trump's initiatives on the economy of the Eurozone. The euro is being held in check by uncertainty as analysts cannot agree on whether the ECB would lower rates by 25 or 50 basis points.
Fears of a Trade War between the US and the Eurozone
There are now more worries of a trade war among the US and the Eurozone. Trump has previously threatened punitive action against the eurozone for not buying enough US exports. Tensions have been exacerbated by recent comments made by Stephen Moore, Trump's economic advisor, indicating that the US is less interested in trade agreements with countries who support the EU.
Fed Continues to Be Wary
Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed, recently stressed the need of monetary policy being prudent. While inflation is gradually approaching the Fed's 2% target, Powell stated during his speech in Dallas that the US economy does not demonstrate a need for rate decreases. Markets now estimate a 60% possibility of a quarter-point rate decrease in December, which is lower than what they had previously predicted.
Important Information to Note
New information on business activity and attitude in the wake of Trump's election victory will be available later this week with the release of November's preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Investors are watching for indications of optimism or worries that might influence monetary policy choices in the coming months.
The upward trajectory of the EUR/USD exchange rate will be significantly influenced by changes in central bank policies and trade policy.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.05484, up 0.10% on the day, as it continues to hover near the lower end of a consolidative range. The pivot point at $1.05772 serves as a crucial level to determine the short-term direction of the pair.
A decisive break above this level could pave the way for further gains toward immediate resistance at $1.06023, with the next key resistance levels positioned at $1.06312. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.05332, while further weakness could see the pair testing $1.04867 and $1.04599.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.05730 is acting as a near-term cap on bullish momentum, suggesting that buyers face stiff resistance ahead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 47, indicating neutral momentum, neither signaling overbought nor oversold conditions. This balanced reading suggests that EUR/USD could remain range-bound until a catalyst drives a breakout.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading below the pivot point, with price action exhibiting a mild bearish tilt. However, a buy-limit strategy at $1.05333 could be a viable setup for traders, aiming for a take-profit target at $1.05866, with a stop-loss placed at $1.05005 to mitigate downside risks.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Nov 18, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The Pound Sterling recovers marginally following dismal UK GDP-driven selling on Friday.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) edged higher against its major peers on Monday, attempting to regain ground after Friday's sell-off. The British pound plummeted dramatically when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the GDP unexpectedly shrunk by 0.1% in September. The figures also showed that the economy increased slowly in the third quarter.
The unexpected dip in UK GDP may lead to further interest rate reduction by the Bank of England (BoE).
Markets will be focusing almost entirely on the services inflation figure, which the analysts expect to rise somewhat from 4.9% to 5.0%. However, when we remove sectors that are less relevant to the Bank of England, 'core services' inflation falls significantly to 4.3%.
That would be good news for the BoE, but not likely enough to warrant another cut in December. In addition, markets may focus more on the 'non-core' services CPI data, maintaining to cautious BoE pricing and putting a cap on the recent modest bounce in EUR/GBP.
The UK's economic future is projected to become more uncertain as the government struggles to decide between increasing trade links with the European Union (EU) and the United States.
UK Faces Economic Dilemma Between EU and US Models as GBP Struggles Amid Strong USD
The United Kingdom is caught between these two types of economic models, and I believe the country would benefit from adopting more of the American model of economic independence. And if that were the case, Moore believes it would increase the Trump administration's desire to pursue the free trade pact with the UK. His remarks came as BoE Governor Andrew Bailey encouraged the administration to rebuild relations with the European Union.
During Monday's London session, the pound sterling remained under pressure near 1.2600 against the US dollar. The GBP/USD pair struggles to find traction as the US Dollar maintains gains near a more-than-a-year high, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 107.00.
The greenback trades firmly as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take a more cautious rate-cutting approach given the recent minor rise in inflation and the growth forecast based on strong anticipation that President-elect Donald Trump would be able to carry out his economic program efficiently.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.26203, up a modest 0.03% on the day, as it consolidates within a tight range near critical support levels. The pivot point at $1.26900 serves as a key hurdle for the pair, and a breakout above this level could open the door to immediate resistance at $1.27452.
If bullish momentum persists, the next upside targets are $1.27924. However, the downside remains vulnerable, with immediate support at $1.25957, followed by stronger support at $1.25073 and $1.24513.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.30541 reflects a bearish trend in the broader outlook, as prices remain well below this longer-term indicator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 30, signaling that the pair is oversold, which could set the stage for a potential technical rebound.
In the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD shows signs of downward pressure as it trades below the pivot point. A buy-limit entry at $1.26095 could offer traders a strategic opportunity, targeting a take-profit level of $1.26911. However, caution is warranted, with a stop-loss placed at $1.25462 to limit downside risk.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 18, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices gained on Monday, recovering from six consecutive sessions of losses, as the U.S. dollar held steady after last week’s sharp rally. The dollar index, which surged 1.6% last week to touch a one-year high, remained flat on Monday, providing some relief for bullion.
Dollar Softens, Supporting Gold Demand
A softer dollar typically bolsters gold by making it less expensive for foreign buyers holding other currencies. "The recent correction in gold prices is closely tied to dollar strength," noted Ross Norman, an independent market analyst. "While we may not have found a solid physical floor yet, opportunistic buying has started to support the market."
The dollar’s performance remains a key variable as investors await further signals from the Federal Reserve. This week, at least seven Fed officials are scheduled to speak, potentially offering more clarity on the central bank's interest rate trajectory.
Fed Signals and Interest Rate Impact
Recent U.S. economic data, including stronger-than-expected retail sales and sticky inflation, have tempered expectations for a December rate cut. Elevated interest rates diminish gold’s appeal, as the metal offers no yield.
"As we approach year-end, we can expect volatility in gold prices driven by profit-taking and portfolio adjustments, regardless of the Fed's actions," Norman added.
Michael Langford, chief investment officer at Scorpion Minerals, noted that near-term risks for gold are tied to further dollar strength. "While the strengthening USD is negative for gold in the short term, the long-term impact of inflationary policies will eventually support higher prices," Langford explained.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,583.78, up 0.80% on the day, as it hovers just above key support levels. The metal's immediate pivot point sits at $2,597.39, a critical level that traders will watch closely as it determines near-term direction.
A break above this pivot could signal a move toward immediate resistance at $2,618.54, with additional bullish targets at $2,644.07. On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,580.92, while further declines could expose gold to $2,537.16 and $2,516.86.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,581.13 offers a strong short-term support zone, aligning closely with current price action. Gold’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54, indicating a neutral stance with neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This balanced momentum highlights the potential for volatility, as any breach of key levels could trigger significant price movement.
On the 4-hour chart, the price action is consolidating between the pivot point and $2,580.92, forming a narrow trading range. The broader trend remains cautious, as gold’s upside potential faces resistance from higher Treasury yields and a firm U.S. dollar.
However, if gold successfully breaks above $2,597.39, bullish momentum may accelerate, potentially reaching $2,618.54.
Traders considering a buy-limit order at $2,580 could aim for a take-profit target of $2,616, with a stop-loss set at $2,550 to manage risk. Gold's trajectory remains tethered to macroeconomic factors, with U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve signals likely to provide further clarity on price direction.
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