Daily Price Outlook

The XAU/USD is currently trading at 1,910.42, indicating a 0.41% decrease within a day. On Thursday, the price of gold fell from its six-week high as speculators cashed in on gains. However, the yellow metal's status as a safe haven asset was strengthened by fears of an impending financial crisis and uncertainty regarding monetary policy.

Credit Suisse Crisis Sparks Risk Aversion and Impacts Gold Prices

Global market participants are currently concerned about a potential repeat of the 2008 financial crisis as the US banking crisis has now reached Europe and affected Credit Suisse (CS), which is considered to be a bank with significant worldwide systemic importance.

Following the announcement on Wednesday that Credit Suisse's top investor would not provide the Swiss bank with more financial support, global stocks, including Credit Suisse's shares, experienced a decline.

The refusal of the Saudi National Bank to invest additional funds in Credit Suisse led to an acceleration in the leading European bank's Credit Default Swaps (CDS), which then caused a financial market crisis.

Furthermore, news that representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) approached banks to inquire about their exposure to Credit Suisse only added to the already existing risk-off sentiment.

When the banking crisis spreads to Europe and targets Credit Suisse, investors tend to opt for safe-haven assets like gold, causing the price of XAU/USD to increase. However, as investors began to take profits, gold prices dipped from their six-week high.

Fed Rate Hike Speculations and Their Impact on Gold Prices

Traders showed little interest in US statistics amidst growing concerns about Credit Suisse and the possibility of a new financial crisis.

US retail sales fell by 0.4% in February, below market expectations of 0.3% and a downward revision from the prior month's figure of 3.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also decreased from 5.7% in January to 4.6% YoY, falling short of the market projection of 5.6%.

The data shows a noticeable drop in US inflation, which has lowered expectations of a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Nevertheless, Reuters reports that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is still expected to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 22.

As traders anticipated further Federal Reserve interest rate increases, Treasury rates rose to 3.489%, and the DXY rebounded to 104.57, putting pressure on XAU/USD.

Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1890            1942

1862            1965

1838            1993

Pivot Point: 1914

Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook

The gold price encountered substantial resistance at $1,929, trading with clear negativity and retesting the breached resistance for the bullish pennant's pattern, which was influenced by stochastic negativity. Hoping for favorable momentum to help push the price back into the main bullish wave, which has its next objective of $1,962.00.

The EMA50 continues to support the projected bullish trend, and a break of $1,929 is needed to ease the goal of reaching the desired level.

But, breaking $1,906.00 will put the price under extra downward pressure, causing it to test the most significant support at $1,878.80 before any new attempt to rise.

Today's trading range is predicted to be between $1,894.00 support and $1,936.00 resistance.

Daily Price Outlook

The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6221, which represents a decline of 0.22% over the last 24 hours. The pair retreated as investors became worried ahead of publishing New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and the US Retail Sales and Manufacturing statistics.

Fed Rate Hikes Speculations

Last week, Jerome Powell, president of the US Federal Reserve, said that the benchmark interest rate would increase earlier than anticipated. He said that interest rates would climb more quickly if there were strong economic statistics. However, given the current issues with the US banking system, traders anticipate a less hawkish central bank since they are concerned that more banks may collapse.

After the US Government, Federal Reserve, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) actively insured a rescue for all bank depositors, foreign currencies found relief due to declining rate expectations.

However, investors began to worry about Fed rate increases when the US CPI report revealed that inflation is still a problem.

After the CPI report, Reuters reported that a government analysis revealed that American inflation remained high in February. Therefore, the Federal Reserve may increase its interest rates by 0.25 points the next week and one more in May.

After hearing that the Fed may hike interest rates next week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) received bids to test the 103.76 intraday high. The yield on US Treasury bonds with a 10-year maturity rose to 3.678%. It causes the NZD/USD currency pair to decline.

Traders are waiting for Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) later today for further information about the US economy and inflation.

New Zealand Upcoming GDP report

Early this morning, New Zealand's current account results impacted the Kiwi Dollar. The current account deficit decreased from NZ$11.40 billion to NZ$9.46 billion in the fourth quarter.

Traders are now anticipating Statistics New Zealand's GDP report. Estimates indicate that the New Zealand GDP has shrunk by 0.2% after growing by 2.0% in the third quarter.

A slowing of the growth rate shows that household demand is becoming more limited, easing the pressure on Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policymakers working to slow down inflationary pressures. The RBNZ may suspend the cycle of rate hikes if there is a large downward deviation in the GDP. It will be unfavorable to the NZD/USD pair.

NZD/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

0.6207         0.6256

0.6179         0.6277

0.6158         0.6305

Pivot Point: 0.6228

NZD/USD – Technical Outlook

The NZDUSD pair has resumed its negative trend and is approaching the EMA50. It is expected to decline further towards our next main target at 0.6140. Breaking this level may extend the bearish wave to reach 0.6020.

As such, we maintain a bearish outlook for the upcoming trading sessions, unless the pair breaches 0.6290 and holds above it. The expected trading range for today is between support at 0.6170 and resistance at 0.6280.

Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold, XAU/USD is now trading around 1,903. After dropping from a six-week high in the previous session, gold prices continued to decline on Wednesday as fears over a banking crisis in the country faded, and a mixed figure on US inflation created some confusion over the Federal Reserve's attitude on monetary policy.

Bank Crisis Subsides

In the last few days, the collapse of American banks caused a rush toward safe havens, which caused the price of yellow metal to rise rapidly. However, following the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank, the US government took action to reaffirm public confidence in the banking industry.

The Fed moved quickly to loosen restrictions on bank borrowing. The White House also assured SVB depositors that it would cover withdrawal costs.

Therefore, when concerns about the banking sector spread following the collapse of SVB last week faded, investors surged into stocks in US markets overnight, and gold prices were on edge.

US Inflation has Slowed

Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation in the US, eased. The US CPI and CPI ex Food and Energy met 6.0% and 5.5% YoY market predictions, below 6.4% and 5.6% respective prior readings.

After the CPI report, Reuters said that a government report showed US inflation stayed high in February, and fears of a long-term financial crisis faded. Therefore, the Federal Reserve might raise its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point next week and again in May.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) picked up bids to retest the intraday high of 103.76 after the news that the Fed might raise its benchmark rate. That puts downward pressure on the price of gold. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds increased to 3.678%.

The hawkish Fed wagers and positive US Treasury bond rates enable the US Dollar to maintain its strength and provide XAU/USD bears reason for optimism.

Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1893            1913

1885            1923

1874            1932

Pivot Point: 1904

Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook

The price of gold experienced a temporary negative pressure, causing it to settle within the bullish pennant's pattern once again. However, new positive signals from the stochastic indicator are expected to motivate the price to continue its bullish trend for the day, with the next target located at $1,928.60.

As such, we maintain a bullish outlook, provided that the price remains stable above $1,878.80. Any continued decline and a breach of this level may lead to further losses, potentially reaching the $1,828.70 areas.

For today's trading, we anticipate a trading range between support at $1,890.00 and resistance at $1,928.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P500 has risen 1.65% on the last day to trade at 3,919.29. US stocks recovered as anticipation of the extent of the rate rise at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week was muted by inflation data that was mostly on target and easing concerns about the spread in the banking sector.

US CPI Eases

On Tuesday, investors appeared to take hope in the fact that the risk of market spread from the Silicon Valley Bank crisis was reducing. However, the stability of the global banking industry under rising interest rates remained a focus.

Meanwhile, the CPI data from the US Labor Department revealed that consumer prices decreased in February, roughly in line with market forecasts, with both headline and core measures recording significant annual decreases.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation in the US, decreased from 6.4% in January to 6% in February. The reading matched the expectations set by the market.

There is still a long way until inflation reaches the central bank's 2% target on an annual average. However, the chances that the Federal Reserve would adopt a 25 basis-point boost to its benchmark interest rate at the end of its two-day policy meeting on March 22 has grown in response to indications of economic softening and the regional banking crisis.

The US dollar fell as traders doubted the possibility of another rate increase by the Fed later this month in light of the US financial crisis and easing inflation. DXY is now trading down at 103.54. Moreover, the US 10-Year Treasury yield increased to trade at 3.666%.

After several days of risk-off instability, the S&P 500 finished significantly higher as bank fears decreased and inflation cooled.

Insulet was selected to take SVB's spot on the S&P 500 index.

The parent firm, SVB Financial Group, is no longer eligible for listing on the S&P 500 after authorities interfered and shut down Silicon Valley Bank. As a result, the bank dropped from the index before the markets opened on Wednesday, and Insulet took its place.

Insulet's inclusion in the S&P 500 comes just a few weeks after the company announced its highest-ever annual revenues, beating last year's record. The manufacturer of diabetes technology made $1.3 billion overall in 2022, an increase of more than 18% from the previous year.

The stock price rose sharply after news that Insulet would replace SVB on the S&P 500. Moreover, the S&P 500 performed better than anticipated.

S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

3808.07       3904.26

3760.37       3952.75

3711.88       4000.45

Pivot Point: 3856.56

S&P500 – Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 (SPX) has encountered a hurdle near the $4,060 level, which is reinforced by a 50% Fibonacci retracement mark. As a result, the index has fallen once again from a technical standpoint. Closing candles below this level are indicating a sell zone for SPX, and the "three black crows" pattern in the 4-hour timeframe is contributing to the bearish sentiment among investors.

Currently, the SPX's immediate resistance level is at $4,095, which is supported by a 61.8% Fibonacci correction level on the upside. A bullish breakout above the $4,035 level could lead to further gains towards the $4,200 mark. However, if the support level at $3,930 is broken, the SPX may drop towards the next support level at $3,880.

Daily Price Outlook

On Tuesday, March 14th, BTC/USD opened at $24,187. It reached a high of $24,356 and a low of $24,074 before trading at $24,338. BTC/USD has gained over 20% in the past few days.

Market Hopeful for Dovish Stance from Fed

Recently, concerns about the financial stability of Silicon Valley Bank led to withdrawal and transfer limitations for its account holders, including several crypto firms. However, on Monday, the bank's account holders were granted full access to their funds following the government's assurance of protecting all depositors.

In addition, the failure of Signature Bank, the primary banking partner of Circle, a peer-to-peer payments tech firm, has exposed the stablecoin ecosystem's dependence on certain centralized entities.

After regulators intervened to support deposits at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank (SBNY), investors felt relieved and grew optimistic that the banking sector's meltdown would lead the Federal Reserve to scale back its hawkish monetary policy.

This led to a fall in the US dollar as traders questioned whether the Fed would raise rates again later this month, given the ongoing US banking crisis.

As a result, the DXY is now trading down at 103.63. The risk sentiment of BTC traders returned, causing BTC/USD to soar above $24,000 for the first time in more than two weeks.

Binance Converts Cash Reserves into Cryptocurrencies to Boost Bitcoin, Ether, and Binance Coin Tokens

The world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, recently announced its plan to convert a $1 billion industry fund into Bitcoin, Ether, and Binance Coin tokens. This move helped boost the value of these cryptocurrencies.

According to Binance's founder and CEO, Changpeng Zhao, the conversion from the industry fund to BUSD took only five seconds and cost $1.29. This announcement followed the US government's commitment to protecting depositors of two struggling regional banks, Silvergate, and Silicon Valley Bank.

Overall, Binance's decision to convert its fund into cryptocurrencies demonstrates growing confidence in the crypto market and highlights the potential for digital assets to become more mainstream.

The failure of Silvergate and Silicon Valley banks has caused significant concerns in the crypto market, limiting their ability to trade freely and causing panicked token sales. However, the fear eased after the Federal Reserve announced on Sunday that it would guarantee all deposits, not just those federally insured.

Furthermore, Binance's move to convert a $1 billion fund into Bitcoin, Ether, and Binance Coin tokens created a significant boost in buying pressure, leading to an increase in BTC/USD. The news that Bitcoin rose due to Binance's announcement and a sense of relief in avoiding another crypto disaster contributed to the rise.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support     Resistance

22532         25201

20877         26215

19863         27870

Pivot Point:23546

BTC/USD – Technical Outlook

Bitcoin's value has rocketed since last Friday, with the largest cryptocurrency by market size recovering by about 30% from its lows on Friday. As a result of the upswing, the price has broken the 2023 record by going above $26,000.

During a crisis in the financial industry and massive bank runs, Bitcoin's value increased. BTCUSD jumped past $25,000 and then passed the $26,000 level after today's CPI data was released, which came in at 6%. From Bitcoin's initial fall below $26,000 in June 2022, the cryptocurrency has struggled to rise above that mark.

Following a potentially different reaction at a retest of the downtrend resistance line, things may be different this time around. After retesting $20,000 late last week, BTCUSD had a tremendous increase, with the price per coin climbing by more than 25%.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2151, which reflects a decrease of 0.25% in the last 24 hours. As traders anticipate significant economic data releases from the US and the UK, the pair is restricted to its recent trading highs.

Upcoming UK Macroeconomic Data

The upcoming UK employment statistics release is expected to have a significant impact on the British Pound in the days ahead. According to experts, the Claimant Count Change (Feb) is predicted to decrease by 12.4K, which is slightly less than the previous announcement of 12.9K. However, the three-month unemployment rate may rise to 3.8% from the previous release of 3.7%.

The Average Earnings data is expected to be the primary driver, with a predicted decrease to 5.7% from the previous release of 5.9%.

Investors must exercise caution as the UK economy faces inflationary pressures from rising labor costs and persistent increases in food prices. A decrease in UK employment costs and an increase in the unemployment rate could potentially reduce inflation expectations.

Despite this, the Pound is struggling to gain momentum due to investor concerns about risks to the UK financial system, leading to lower risk sentiment. However, if the Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change exceed expectations, it could potentially benefit the GBP/USD pair.

US Upcoming CPI

Following the fallout of SVB US on Friday, the US markets saw a significant decline. Despite emergency measures implemented by US authorities over the weekend to mitigate risk and restore confidence in the US banking system, investors remain uneasy today.

Although the risk-off sentiment initially supported the USD, markets have reduced their expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The US banking industry is displaying signs of instability due to high-interest rates, which could make Fed officials hesitant to implement further tightening measures.

Traders are currently anticipating Tuesday's US CPI release. According to market forecasts, the US CPI is expected to fall 6.0% YoY from 6.4%, while the CPI ex-Food & Energy might decline to 5.5% YoY from 5.6%.

As investors await the US CPI data, the dollar has risen again, with DXY up 0.25% on the day and trading at 103.86. The 10-Year US Treasury Rate in the bond markets was at 3.569%. Furthermore, if the US CPI comes in below expectations, it could strengthen the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1.2081         1.2242

1.1980         1.2302

1.1919         1.2404

Pivot Point: 1.2141

GBP/USD – Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD pair has remained relatively unchanged since this morning and is hovering around the 1.2150 level. The expected bullish trend scenario for today remains unchanged, targeting the 1.2260 and 1.2440 levels as the next main stations. However, a positive motive is needed to push the price towards the suggested targets.

It is important to note that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on the price staying stable above 1.2070. The expected trading range for today is between 1.2070 support and 1.2250 resistance.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6637, down by 0.41% within the last 24 hours. The pair has trended lower due to the USD's increased value in anticipation of the US CPI.

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

A private survey released on Tuesday revealed that consumer confidence in Australia remained unchanged from the previous month in early March. Despite this, confidence levels continued to hover around COVID-era lows due to the country's struggle with high inflation and increasing interest rates.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index remained constant at 78.5 in March, as per a report from Westpac. While this level was still near its lowest point since March 2020, the bank noted that it was uncommon to have two consecutive months of low consumer confidence, indicating rising concerns about inflation among the general public.

In addition, consumers in Australia are expecting further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has already had a negative impact on the country's economy. RBA Governor Philip Lowe has indicated that the bank may pause its rate hikes as early as April if inflationary pressures ease, but some experts predict that the bank will continue to raise rates until May.

The Australian dollar initially declined as investors anticipated a slowdown in the pace of future rate hikes, but if the RBA follows through with raising rates until May, it could ultimately benefit the AUD/USD pair.

US Dollar Rebounded Ahead of US CPI

On Sunday, the Federal Reserve developed a contingency plan to mitigate the damage to the US banking system caused by Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) collapse, reducing market risk.

Traders are eagerly anticipating the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday, with some market experts revising their expectations for a 50 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Fed on March 22.

As a result, the dollar is strengthening, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading at 103.89, a 0.28% increase in the last 24 hours. The yield on US 10-Year Bonds has also risen to 3.564%.

A continuously rising interest rate may weaken the banking system, and high inflation rates pose a double challenge for central banks. As a result, the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be crucial to observe since it will further complicate the Federal Reserve's position.

Traders expect a decrease in the US CPI, which could lead to a reversal of the Fed's aggressive stance and a potential increase in the AUD/USD price.

AUD/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

0.6590         0.6727

0.6517         0.6791

0.6453         0.6864

Pivot Points:0.6654

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has fallen below the 0.6665 level and is currently bearish, heading towards the second target of 0.6550. It is currently trading within a bearish channel, increasing the likelihood of further bearish corrections, and a potential decline towards 0.6400.

The bearish wave continues to be supported by the EMA50, and a negative momentum may be necessary to break through and reach the expected target.

However, if the pair manages to surpass the 0.6665 level, it could prevent the anticipated decline and initiate recovery attempts, with an initial target of 0.6780. The expected trading range for the day is between the support level of 0.6500 and the resistance level of 0.6620.

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P500 is trading at 3,861.59, down by 1.45% in 24 hours. Stock markets have fallen due to stronger-than-expected NFP data, and worries about bank contagion after the failure of SVB.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Financial Group's surprise failure and FDIC seizure on Friday motivated a fast Fed meeting on Monday. The US authorities responded to limit the consequences of the unexpected collapse.

The Federal Reserve acted quickly to loosen the limits on bank borrowing. Furthermore, the White House promised to pay any withdrawals for SVB depositors.

The Fed and the FDIC are making great efforts to ring-fence SVB and stop contagion, but this worry is disturbing the market. Investors also believe that the Fed is far less likely to raise interest rates since doing so could bring down any other banks. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, more traders anticipate a 25 basis point increase in interest rates from the Fed this month versus a 50 basis point increase.

Although depositors are likely to withdraw their funds from the bank, there are concerns about contagion. As a result, global markets closed the week in a sharp decline, with the S&P 500 Index closing at its lowest level in more than two months.

US NFP report

The US non-farm payroll statistics released on Friday showed 311k new employment opportunities occurred last month versus the 224k anticipated. Moreover, the unemployment rate grew from 3.4% to 3.6%, while average hourly wages only increased by 0.2%.

Overall, this news would have probably been a bit optimistic for the US Dollar if not for the worry of bank contagion.

The outcome was a sharp decline in the dollar relative to a basket of currencies, with DXY trading at 0.76% and down at 103.78. The current price of the US 10-Year Bond Yield is 3.670%, down by 0.68%.

Looking ahead, traders are looking forward to the release of the US consumer price index on Tuesday.

S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

3879            3988

3839            4057

3770            4097

Pivot Point: 3948

S&P500 – Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 (SPX) has faced resistance near the $4,060 level, which is extended by a 50% Fibonacci retracement mark, causing the index to drop again from a technical perspective. Candles closing below this level are keeping SPX in a sell zone, and the "three black crows" pattern in the 4-hour timeframe adds to the bearish bias among investors.

The SPX's immediate resistance level is $4,095, supported by a 61.8% Fibonacci correction level on the upside. A bullish breakout above the $4,035 level may lead to further gains toward the $4,200 mark. However, in the event of a breakdown below the support level of $3,930, the SPX may drop toward the next support level at $3,880.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0690, up 0.44%in 24 hours. Traders bet that the Federal Reserve will moderate its aggressive stance in the coming days in reaction to an escalating banking crisis in the US, which helped the pair recover upward momentum.

Easing Hawkish Fed bets

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank serves as a reminder of the US economy's growing gaps caused by a rise in interest rates. The sudden failure and FDIC seizure of SVB Financial Group on Friday triggered a rushed closed-door meeting of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on Monday.

The Fed took urgent action to ease bank borrowing restrictions. The White House also assured Silicon Valley Bank depositors to cover all withdrawals.

It is worth noting that market worries of no Fed rate rises in March, due to the latest imbalance in the US banking industry, appear to be weighing on the US Dollar. Fed Rate Monitor Tool shows that most traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month, down from 50 basis points.

The outcome was a sharp decline in the dollar relative to a basket of currencies, with DXY trading 0.52% down at 104.03. The current price of the US 10-Year Bond Yield is 3.743%, up 1.29%. The unexpected decline in the dollar boosted the value of the EUR/USD currency pair.

Meanwhile, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which came in higher than expected, appears to challenge the risk-on stance in anticipation of this week's events. Traders are looking forward to the release of the US consumer price index on Tuesday. Yet, with the announcement of the US CPI, market reaction may be limited unless there is a huge surprise.

ECB Upcoming Monetary Policy Meeting

The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The hawks are in charge of monetary policy. While economic activity seems to be building up, the increased inflation readings and the new cyclical high in the core rate have quieted opposition from those who favor a more flexible policy.

The staff will revise its economic predictions during the ECB meeting. The CPI projection for December showed a decline from 8.4% last year to 6.3% this year, 3.4% in 2024, and 2.3% in 2025. As a result, the market is more upbeat.

Furthermore, the ECB is anticipated to announce a rate increase of 0.50% and may help in the current risk-on market to support the EUR/USD price.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1.0652         1.0708

1.0622         1.0734

1.0596         1.0764

Pivot Point: 1.0678

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The EURUSD pair came within a few pips of our predicted positive target at 1.0745 but is currently exhibiting a negative bias due to stochastic negativity.

Yet, we forecast a good momentum to propel the price to continue its bullish trend, with objectives at 1.0800 and 1.0925 after surpassing the previous level.

The EMA50 supports this positive scenario, which will remain valid unless there is a break below 1.0645 and a persistent hold below that level. Today's trading range is predicted to fall between support at 1.0610 and resistance at 1.0780.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2062, up 0.28%in 24 hours.The pair gained momentum, rebounding substantially from recent losses as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will soften its hawkish rhetoric in the coming days in response to a growing banking crisis in the US.

Federal Reserve Board of Governors urgent meeting

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors scheduled an urgent closed-door meeting using expedited protocols on Monday, March 13. The Board reviewed and decided the advance and discount rates that the Fed would impose.

The unexpected collapse and FDIC seizure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Financial Group on Friday may have caused this hurried Fed meeting. The Fed used emergency steps to make borrowing easier for troubled banks. The White House also informed Silicon Valley Bank depositors that it would cover all withdrawals. Jerome Powell and his allies rushed in to help with a new tool to save the billionaire tech depositors at SVB and Signature Bank against hawkish threats of a 50bps rise.

Moreover, in March, the odds of a 50bps rise fell from 75% to less than 20%, and in May, the probability of a 25bps hike fell from a coin flip to only 85%. As a result, the dollar dropped significantly versus a basket of currencies, with DXY trading 0.23% down at 104.33. US 10-Year Bond Yield is now trading at 3.737, up 1.14%.

The unexpected fall in the dollar helped the GBP/USD currency pair to gain value.

UK and US Economic Conditions

British economic growth in January exceeded expectations, relieving concerns about a possible recession. Britain's GDP grew 0.3% month over month, following a 0.5% decline in December. According to a Reuters survey of economists, growth would be 0.1%.

In the United States, Nonfarm Payrolls revealed significant job growth last week, despite the rise in the Unemployment Rate and signs of cooling wage inflation, leading investors to lower expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates as sharply as expected.

Going ahead, traders are awaiting the US consumer price index and UK labor market data on Tuesday. BoE will especially appreciate slower wage growth following last month's positive surprise. However, with US CPI released, market reaction may be limited unless there is a significant surprise.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1.2044         1.2108

1.2010         1.2138

1.1980         1.2171

Pivot Point: 1.2074

GBP/USD – Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD pair is currently exhibiting a bullish bias and hovering around the 1.2100 level. For the bullish trend to continue as anticipated, a positive catalyst is needed to push the price towards its next target at 1.2260.

To achieve the expected targets, we recommend maintaining a bullish trend that relies on price stability above 1.2050. Breaking below this level will result in a price decline towards 1.1940 before any new positive attempts. Today's anticipated trading range is expected to fall between support at 1.2040 and resistance at 1.2200.