Dogecoin Price Analysis – April 04, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
DOGE/USD is currently trading over 25% higher at 0.097920. This surge in value occurred after Elon Musk changed the Twitter web logo to a Shiba Inu, which resulted in a significant increase in the value of Dogecoin.
Twitter's New Logo Results in Rise of Dogecoin
On Monday, Twitter users were greeted with an unusual sight - the blue bird logo that had been there previously was nowhere to be seen. Elon Musk, the most vocal advocate of Dogecoin, changed the bird logo on his company's website to a picture of a Shiba Inu, the dog that represents the meme token Dogecoin.
This platform-wide symbol update is visible to the approximately 360 million monthly active users and visitors of the social media giant. Shortly after the change, the CEO of Twitter and Tesla posted a meme that appeared to suggest the adjustment would remain for some time.
Additionally, Dogecoin's value increased dramatically after the modification, pushing its price to over $0.10 for the first time in several months. The volatile cryptocurrency surged by more than 30% in just 30 minutes.
Some users speculated that it might have been an April Fool's joke that the company couldn't implement on time for April 1st. However, the conversation with the moderator of the popular r/WallStreetBets subreddit on Twitter played a role in the change.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1642976364080041984?cxt=HHwWgMDUtYuTg80tAAAA
Furthermore, this change occurred shortly after Elon Musk asked a US court to dismiss a $258 billion lawsuit filed against him by Dogecoin investors who accused him of operating a pyramid scheme.
Elon Musk's Lawyers Seek Dismissal of $258 Billion Dogecoin Lawsuit
Elon Musk is now facing a $258 billion racketeering lawsuit filed by cryptocurrency investors who accused him of intentionally driving up the price of Dogecoin.
The plaintiffs in the US lawsuit claim that Mr. Musk's social media activity and his appearance on Saturday Night Live resulted in a surge of over 36,000% in the price of Dogecoin, which he then allowed to drop.
The complaint alleges that Mr. Musk leveraged his position as the world's wealthiest man to operate and manipulate the Dogecoin Pyramid Scheme.
On Friday, Mr. Musk's lawyers urged a US judge to dismiss the $258 billion fraud lawsuit, stating that humorous pictures and words of encouragement on Twitter do not constitute fraud.
Dogecoin Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
0.080134 0.107994
0.064237 0.119957
0.052274 0.135854
Pivot Point: 0.092097
Dogecoin – Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the DOGE/USD pair has surpassed a triple top resistance level at $0.1000, and a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern might propel DOGE towards the $0.1200 level.
Typically, a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern indicates a continuation of an upward trend. If DOGE continues to hold above $0.0850 level, Dogecoin's price could aim for the $0.120 level.
Conversely, support is present at the $0.0850 level, and a bearish breakout from this point may drive Dogecoin toward the $0.0718 mark.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
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* GOLD Price Analysis – April 4, 2023
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading 1.44% higher at 4,109.31. US stocks have managed to record significant gains in the first quarter despite the banking crisis.
S&P 500 Gained in Q1
In the first three months (Q1) of 2023, the S&P 500 climbed by more than 5%. The quarterly growth came despite a significant sell-off in banking stocks due to the failure of two banking institutions earlier this month and fears of a broader financial meltdown.
US stocks were moving higher as key benchmark averages ended the week on a bullish note, supported by easing PCE data. According to data released on Friday, the Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, came in lower than anticipated last month. The index, which excludes food and energy expenses, increased 0.3% in February, versus a 0.4% increase expected by Dow Jones economists.
The signs of easing inflation raise confidence that the Federal Reserve will soon halt raising interest rates aggressively. As a result, market pricing for the forthcoming Fed meeting on May 3 implies a 42% possibility that the central bank will hit the pause button and keep rates unchanged.
Furthermore, based on current market pricing, a 50 bp reduction by year's end is possible. The expectations of the Fed's easing of its aggressive attitude improved market sentiments, and the S&P 500 increased.
Looking ahead as we enter the first week of April, the next US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released during the early hours of US trade on Monday. For more information on the PMI, you can visit the official website of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) at www.ismworld.org.
Most Active Stocks
The most active S&P 500 Index stocks today are Tesla, Apple, Ford Motor, Intel, and Amazon.com, all of which are seeing gains. Tesla Inc. has increased by 6.42% following its report of record quarterly deliveries after implementing price cuts.
Although the company reported record quarterly vehicle deliveries on Sunday, sales growth quarter-over-quarter was modest despite price cuts and increased competition. Ford Motor Corporation (F) is up 2.52%, and Apple has gained 1.56%.
Intel (INTC), which is up 1.81%, has assured Wall Street that its roadmap for data center processors is on track. The chip manufacturer claims to be active in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence business. The shares of Intel increased as a result of the news.
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
4036 4062
4021 4073
4010 4088
Pivot Point: 4047
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
On Monday, the S&P 500 is trading with a pronounced bullish momentum above 4,100, with a firm support level at 4,030. However, substantial resistance may be encountered due to the double-top pattern at 4,175.
If the index surpasses this level, the SPX price could be driven towards the next resistance level of 4,170. On the other hand, if the SPX drops below 4,040, it might face intense selling pressure and potentially decline to the 3,920 and 3,840 levels.
Technical indicators, such as MACD and RSI, are both in the buying zone, indicating a strong bullish tendency. Investors are likely to focus on the 4,040 level, and if the candle closes above it, the SPX price may see an upward trend today.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The weekly uptrend in EUR/USD seems to have encountered a strong obstacle around the monthly highs near 1.0930 on Friday. The currency pair has given up some ground after four consecutive daily gains at the week's end due to disappointing German economic data and a resurgence of buying interest in the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, expectations of further rate hikes by the ECB, possibly as early as the May event, continue to support the pair's upward momentum, especially against the backdrop of growing speculation that the Federal Reserve might keep rates unchanged at its next meeting.
In the domestic arena, German Retail Sales contracted by 7.1% YoY in February, while the March jobs report indicated a 16K-person increase in Unemployment Change and a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.6%.
Later in the session, flash inflation figures for the euro area will take center stage, followed by a speech from ECB Chairwoman Christine Lagarde.
In the US, the focus will be on releasing inflation data as measured by the PCE, along with Personal Income/Spending and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0843 1.0946
1.0782 1.0988
1.0740 1.1049
Pivot Point: 1.0885
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EURUSD pair begins today's trading with a pronounced negative shift, breaking the intraday bullish trend line and moving towards an anticipated decline on an intraday basis.
The initial target is to test the 1.0745 level while keeping an eye on the price as it reaches this level, as breaking it could extend the bearish wave towards the 1.0630 area as the next primary station.
As a result, a bearish inclination is predicted for today, bolstered by the pair currently trading below the EMA50. However, it is important to note that a breach of the 1.0870 level would halt the negative scenario, prompting the price to resume its primary bullish trajectory.
Today's expected trading range lies between 1.0730 support and 1.0875 resistance.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
BTC/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The BTC/USD is currently trading at 27,750, experiencing a 1.50% drop within the last 24 hours. Bitcoin's (BTC) recent surge seems to have paused just below the $30,000 mark, following the cryptocurrency's capitalization on the turmoil in the traditional finance sector, particularly the fallout from the banking crisis.
Analysts assert that breaking the $30,000 resistance level could be a significant milestone for the leading cryptocurrency based on its historical price behavior.
Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland highlighted in an April 2 tweet that $30,000 has served as a crucial resistance and support level for Bitcoin over the past two years. He speculated that if Bitcoin were to successfully flip this level, it could signify a game-changing moment.
Hyland also observed that the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices demonstrated remarkable resilience, ending the week on a positive note. However, he emphasized that widespread pessimism and skepticism persist in the market, with many investors remaining cautious about the current economic environment.
In a similar vein, a Bitcoin analyst using the Twitter alias Stockmoney Lizards urged patience in the crypto market, pointing out that the asset encounters resistance at $30,000. He added that if this resistance is overcome, Bitcoin is likely to soar.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
27516 28908
26689 29473
26124 30300
Pivot Point: 28081
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
Bitcoin's price has been correcting lower from the $28,800 area, with the potential for increased bearish momentum if it falls decisively below the $27,500 support level. Although Bitcoin managed to climb above the $28,500 resistance level, it faced difficulty in gaining traction to surpass the $28,800 and $29,000 levels.
The latest swing high was established around $28,595 before the price underwent a downside correction. It dropped below the $28,200 support level and the 100-hour simple moving average, with bears driving the price beneath the $28,000 support zone.
Immediate resistance lies around $27,820, which is close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $28,595 swing high to the $27,578 low.
Should Bitcoin fail to break the $28,100 resistance, it may experience another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $27,600 zone, followed by major support around $27,500. A downward breach below the $27,500 support could trigger a new decline, with the next critical support near $27,000. If the price falls below this level, it could test the $26,600 mark.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0916, up 0.14% in 24 hours. The currency pair increased to weekly highs amid surprisingly positive German inflation data. The Dollar fell following the GDP announcement, but risk-on sentiment supported the Euro.
Dollar Drops on GDP Report
The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 25 basis points last week as anticipated. However, they did so with caution because of the uncertainty in the banking industry.
Additionally, US data released on Thursday showed that last week's jobless claims increased more than anticipated from the week before, indicating a cooling labor market. Likewise, fourth-quarter GDP growth came in at 2.6% as opposed to earlier estimates of 2.7%, supporting the claim for a softer Fed stance.
The GDP report fell short of expert estimates and provided another reason for the dollar to decline. Therefore, DXY is trading lower at 102.16. The weaker dollar made the EUR/USD pair stronger.
Moreover, expectations of a Fed pause or a 25 bps rate rise in May are almost equally divided, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool.
The core PCE price index, which the Fed prefers to use as a measure of inflation, will be released on Friday and will offer more hints about the state of the world's largest economy.
Hopes for Rate Hikes from ECB
In the Eurozone, German headline inflation fell to its lowest level since last summer in March. It declined after prices increased in March 2022. In contrast to the expert consensus of 7.3%, Germany's inflation rate decreased from 8.7% in February to 7.4% in March.
Data indicate a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Germany's annual rate, which has reached its lowest level since August 2022. However, other than the costs of energy and commodities, there is currently no evidence of a broader disinflationary trend.
Germany's inflation fell sharply in March due to decreasing energy costs. However, it was still higher than expected, putting more pressure on the European Central Bank to tighten its monetary policy. As a result, the EUR/USD currency pair rises sharply when German inflation figures surprise the unexpected, boosting market sentiment.
As long as the current banking turmoil is controlled, the ECB will maintain the well-known distinction of using interest rates to combat inflation. The ECB will continue to tighten monetary policy since there are currently no signs of a disinflationary trend, even after considering energy and commodity prices. Therefore, with the ECB projected to hike borrowing costs a couple more times in the coming months, the Euro has room to appreciate even higher.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0843 1.0946
1.0782 1.0988
1.0740 1.1049
Pivot Point: 1.0885
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair experienced further positive movements yesterday, surpassing the 1.0900 level and attempting to maintain its position above it. This bolsters the continuation of the anticipated bullish trend on an intraday and short-term basis, with the next target situated at 1.1032.
Consequently, we will maintain our bullish outlook for the upcoming period, consistently supported by the EMA50. It is important to note that breaching 1.0920 is crucial for the continuation of the upward trend, as failure to do so could create a negative pattern that may pressure the price to reverse course and head towards the 1.0805 area initially. Today's expected trading range is between 1.0840 support and 1.1000 resistance.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
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* GOLD Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY is trading at 133.16, up by 0.36% in 24 hours. The release of Japan's economic figures related to the labor market, retail demand, and Tokyo CPI has resulted in a substantial upward movement for the currency pair.
Moreover, as concerns about additional bank collapse fade, the Japanese Yen, one of the global safe-haven assets, is moving downward versus the US dollar.
US GDP Plunges, Pushing USD/JPY Lower
The final estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 decreased marginally from 2.7% to 2.6%, down from the Q3 print of 3.2%. Also, according to US data issued on Thursday, the unemployment claims from the previous week rose to 198K, more than expected, pointing to a softening labor market. The data supports the argument for a softer Fed attitude.
Meanwhile, as markets continued to minimize the chance of additional rate rises, the US Dollar Basket (DXY), a gauge of USD performance, fell to 102.17 after the GDP report release.
On Friday, the core PCE price index, which the Fed prefers to use as a gauge of inflation, will be issued. The index will provide more details on the state of the leading economy in the world. Furthermore, it may offer more support for the USD/JPY pair.
Tokyo Inflation Slowdown, Weakening JPY
Inflation in Tokyo continued to drop in March after a strong decline in February, caused by government subsidies for electricity costs.
According to statistics from the Statistical Bureau, Tokyo's Core CPI has increased by 3.2% in the 12 months ending in March, above forecasts for growth of 3.1% but falling short of the previous month's figure of 3.3%. Tokyo's CPI rose 3.3% overall in March, slightly down from the 3.4% increase recorded in February.
Steady inflation indicates that the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) aim to keep inflation consistently at desired targets remains unaffected. It might ensure the likelihood of ending the ultra-loose monetary policy.
Nonetheless, retail demand in Japan remained strong in February. Yearly Retail Sales data has increased significantly from an estimated 5.8% to 6.6%. The BoJ's policymakers and the Japanese government are concerned that factors outside of domestic demand are primarily responsible for inflationary pressures in Japan. However, retail demand right now might ease some concerns.
Moreover, the dismal labor market statistics are the driving force behind the Japanese Yen's recent decline. Compared to the consensus and the previous announcement of 2.4%, the unemployment rate has jumped to 2.6%.
Safe haven USD/JPY rises as Japan's rising unemployment rate demands the continuation of the BoJ's loose policy.
USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
132.52 133.57
131.84 133.94
131.46 134.62
Pivot Point: 132.89
USD/JPY – Technical Outlook
The USD/JPY pair has been exhibiting tight sideways fluctuations since yesterday, hovering around the 133.30 level and maintaining its position below it for now. This sustains the likelihood of resuming the primary bearish trend, with initial targets at 131.60 followed by 130.40.
The price requires a negative impetus to help it achieve the anticipated decline. Notably, breaking below 132.00 would facilitate reaching the desired targets, while surpassing 133.30 would introduce a positive factor, pushing the price towards an intraday and short-term increase.
Today's expected trading range is between 131.90 support and 133.50 resistance.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at 1,982.13, up by 0.09% in 24 hours. Gold prices sharply gained after the weak final GDP report put pressure on the US dollar and hopes of interest rate cuts boosted demand for the safe-haven metal.
Fed to Pause Rate Hikes
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, joins three other Fed officials in supporting more rate increases on Thursday, emphasizing the need to control inflation concerns. Nevertheless, mixed US data raises doubts about the Fed's hawkish tone.
According to US statistics released on Thursday, the number of jobless claims increased last week to 198K from the predicted 196K, signaling a sluggish job market. Moreover, Q4 GDP growth was somewhat lower at 2.6% compared to prior projections of 2.7%. The data points to the need for a softer Fed stance.
Furthermore, according to the Fedwatch tool from CME Group, expectations for a Fed pause or a 25 bps rate increase in May are nearly evenly split, with 47.9% of respondents favoring no change in interest rates. The US Dollar Basket (DXY), a measure of USD performance, decreased to 102.17 as markets continued to reduce the likelihood of more rate increases.
XAU/USD has been boosted by a lower US Dollar and forecasts for a decline in interest rates.
Looking ahead, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the February reading of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), will be revealed on Friday and might influence the price of gold.
Easing Banking Crisis Fears
The banking system remains sound, despite being under strain, according to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who made the statement on Thursday. It has helped to push back problems in the banking industry.
Nevertheless, the mixed data and risk-on mood fail to support US 10-year Treasury bond rates, which stay pressured above 3.55%, while the two-year counterpart pushes higher around 4.13%, aiming for the first weekly gain in four weeks.
As a result, the market's mixed data and generally upbeat sentiment, with lessening concerns about bank upheaval, have pushed the XAU/USD price to remain stronger.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1962 1991
1944 2002
1933 2020
Pivot Point: 1973
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Gold price's recent movements have been constrained within a symmetrical triangle visible on the chart. A break above the $1,992.00 resistance would offer a positive boost, reinforcing expectations for the continuation of the primary bullish trend. The targets for this trend begin at $2,000.00 and extend to $2,040.00 once the previous level is surpassed.
Hence, the bullish trend scenario remains in play, backed by the EMA50 that supports the price from below. It is important to note that breaking below $1,962.50 would halt the bullish wave, causing the price to experience a new bearish correction. The anticipated trading range for today lies between the $1,965.00 support and $2,000.00 resistance.
Related:
* USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The BTC/USD is currently trading at 28,410.0, experiencing a 4.20% increase within the last 24 hours. Investors have set aside concerns regarding the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's lawsuit against Binance, helping Bitcoin climb back above the $28,000 mark.
Investors Disregard Regulatory Concerns
On March 27, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against Binance, CEO Changpeng Zhao, and Compliance Head Samuel Lim, alleging that the defendants had violated laws governing commodity trading.
The complaint, submitted to the Illinois District Court, accused them of several violations, including illegally soliciting US customers, failing to register their exchange platform, not having a head office, and failing to prevent and identify money laundering and terrorist financing.
Following the announcement, the platform experienced massive withdrawals, with clients withdrawing over $2 billion. However, Changpeng Zhao expressed disappointment and surprise, stating that Binance had been cooperating closely with the agency for the past two years. He disagreed with the claims, citing an incomplete recounting of facts.
Initially, Bitcoin's value dropped following the news of the CFTC filing. Nonetheless, the BTC/USD saw a significant increase on Wednesday as traders were willing to take on some risk and move past their initial concerns about US regulators cracking down on industry giants.
Mercado Libre Extends Crypto Trading to Chile
MercadoLibre, the top e-commerce platform in Latin America, recently announced that its customers in Chile can now trade Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Chilean users can buy, sell, and store Bitcoin through the company's MercadoPago wallet app.
In a LinkedIn statement on March 29, Osvaldo Gimenez, President of MercadoLibre, revealed that MercadoPago is now the first digital account in the country to facilitate such transactions.
The announcement highlights that the initiative aims to decrease Chile's barriers to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency usage. This feature simplifies the process of using Bitcoin, particularly for less experienced users. The approach is anticipated to be highly user-friendly, requiring minimal effort to operate and allowing even beginners to execute their first transaction.
The adoption of cryptocurrencies represents another step forward in the development and expansion of financial services access in Chile and Latin America. As a result, this move positively impacts the BTC/USD value.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
27516 28908
26689 29473
26124 30300
Pivot Point: 28081
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
The Bitcoin price has risen above the $28,000 resistance, with BTC bulls aiming for a further surge beyond the $28,500 and $28,800 resistance levels. Bitcoin has experienced a significant increase, surpassing the $27,500 resistance and gaining momentum to break through multiple barriers near the $27,800 and $28,000 levels.
On the upside, the immediate resistance lies around the $28,500 level, with the following significant resistance close to the $28,800 zone.
A successful close above the triangle resistance and $28,800 could propel the price even higher. In this scenario, the price may ascend toward the $29,500 resistance, with further gains potentially leading to a test of the $30,000 resistance zone.
However, a new decline could ensue if the Bitcoin price fails to surpass the $28,500 resistance. Immediate downside support is located near the $28,200 zone or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward movement from the $26,600 swing low to the $28,629 high.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 4,027.81, up 1.42% in the last 24 hours. The Micron-fueled spike in technology and new indications of lessening concerns in the banking industry pushed the index higher.
Micron-led Rally in Tech
Micron Technology Inc (MU) reported results for the second quarter of fiscal 2023, which ended on March 2, 2023, on Tuesday. According to a statement released by the company on Tuesday, sales might reach $3.9 billion in the third quarter of this fiscal year.
This contrasts with the $3.75 billion average expert projection. Moreover, the corporation announced additional layoffs. Micron climbed as the projection surprise encouraged optimism that the worst was over.
After the chipmaker's better-than-anticipated sales outlook and encouraging remarks about a bottom in chip demand offset quarterly results that fell short of forecasts, the company's shares increased by over 7%, driving chip stocks and the broader tech sector higher.
Furthermore, interest in other semiconductor companies was raised, with Intel Corporation (INTC), Lam Research Corp (LRCX), and Marvell Technologies (MRVL) all gaining strength.
The risk sentiment helped financial and technology firms. As a result, the S&P 500 Index increased as optimistic outlooks from businesses like Micron Technology and others eased some concerns about the economic situation.
Banking Concerns Eased
The selling of assets by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Monday helped stock investors' risk appetites and reduced market tensions. Furthermore, market concerns regarding pressure in the US banking sector have subsided due to significant actions taken by US authorities and the Fed to strengthen the financial system and restore trust.
Shares of SVB Financial Group (SIVBQ) are trading at 0.97, up 142.50% in the last 24 hours. Signature Bank (SBNY) shares increased 84.62% to 0.24. After investors gained hope from the banking sector's increased stability, the S&P 500 Index rose.
Fed to Hike Rates
As uncertainty persisted and bond investors assessed the effect of rising interest rates on economic development, the yield on US 10-Year Bonds rose modestly to 3.573%. The dollar also rebounded as bets that the Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates increased once more. At 102.75, the dollar index (DXY) increased by 0.11%.
Looking ahead on Friday, experts predict the core PCE to rise by 0.4% m-o-m in February after increasing by 0.6% at the beginning of the year. The annual rate will remain at 4.7%, indicating that the underlying trend hasn't moved much.
A positive surprise may cause investors to increase their bets on a 25bp FOMC hike at the May meeting, even if this option has been discounted and may not cause much volatility. It might cause the S&P 500 to decline.
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
3955 3983
3940 3995
3928 4011
Pivot Point: 3967
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
At present, the S&P 500 is trading at 4,025 with a solid support level at 3,920. However, there may be considerable resistance due to the double-top pattern at 4,039. If it surpasses this level, the SPX price might be propelled towards the next resistance level of 4,160.
Conversely, if the SPX falls below 3,920, it could encounter intense selling pressure and potentially decline to the 3,840 and 3,750 levels. Technical indicators like MACD and RSI are both within the buying zone, signifying a strong bullish inclination.
Investors will likely concentrate on the 3,900 level, and if the candle closes above it, the SPX price could experience an upward trend today.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0830, down by 0.12% in 24 hours. The currency pair declines while traders wait for US and German inflation statistics.
Eyes on Fed's Preferred Measure of Inflation
On the American front, the better-than-expected report revealed that the housing market was still recovering. The Pending House Sales data, released on Wednesday, attracted the interest of traders since it showed that, in February, Pending Home Sales climbed by 0.8% month over month, as opposed to the analyst consensus of -2.3%.
Unexpectedly, US pending home sales increased for a third consecutive month in February, indicating that the housing market may rebound after a challenging year. As a result, it helped the Dollar Index (DXY), which is currently up 0.11% at 102.75. The EUR/USD currency pair came under pressure as the dollar strengthened.
Furthermore, in light of the Fed's policy decision from last week, the market will be closely monitoring the release of inflation statistics to see if the Fed will continue raising rates or whether it will take a break. The Core PCE price index, which is coming Friday, is the Fed's favored gauge of inflation. Therefore, the market won't take any unexpected findings lightly.
ECB to Hike Rates
The European Central Bank (ECB) increased interest rates by 50 basis points a few weeks ago. However, despite recent signals from several policymakers at the central bank, it made no reassurance on future rates. The ECB is closely monitoring the banks in the Eurozone for signs of financial instability, but it has not changed its commitment to combating inflation.
Meanwhile, as the bank turmoil has eased, ECB policymakers have stressed the necessity for higher interest rates. According to Philip Lane, the ECB's chief economist, more rate rises will be required under the base-case scenario to ensure that inflation falls below 2%.
On Wednesday, the German GfK Consumer Confidence survey was released, revealing that, in contrast to the expert estimate of -29.2, Consumer Confidence increased from -30.6 to -29.5. The report showed that German consumers were still under pressure and fell short of analyst expectations. Nevertheless, given that the ECB is still committed to fighting inflation, the data should not significantly influence its decision-making.
Furthermore, it is essential to keep an eye on the German CPI since it will provide a clear indication of what to expect for the Eurozone CPI, which is coming on Friday, as well as the ECB's next move. Markets anticipate a 25 basis point rate increase at the upcoming meeting on May 4. The expectation of more rate increases by the ECB supports the steady EUR/USD exchange rate.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0817 1.0870
1.0791 1.0897
1.0763 1.0924
Pivot Point: 1.0844
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair has been experiencing limited fluctuations since yesterday, hovering around the 1.0840 level. It's worth noting that the stochastic indicator has shed its negative momentum and is now approaching oversold territory, while the EMA50 continues to offer positive support to the price.
As a result, the prospects for a resumption of the anticipated bullish trend in the near term remain strong, with the next primary target situated at 1.1032. It's important to keep in mind that maintaining a level above 1.0745 is crucial to achieve the suggested targets, and surpassing 1.0870 would facilitate the move towards the anticipated target.
For today, the projected trading range is between 1.0770 as support and 1.0935 as resistance.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
Related:
* S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 30, 2023