Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair traded around 1.1916 on early Friday as bulls paused after the largest daily gain in over a week. Significant data releases are expected from both the UK and the US.

Upcoming US Economic Data

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized the need for more interest rate hikes to control inflation, citing stronger-than-expected economic figures showing continuing inflationary pressures.

However, rising jobless claims have lessened the tightness of the labor market, despite positive ADP data on Wednesday and more job openings than anticipated. Thursday's data showed weekly jobless claims were 211K more than the projected 195K.

Despite these US statistics, the US Dollar's rise has been halted by a risk-off sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is edging downwards at 105.28 before the release of major US statistics such as average hourly earnings, nonfarm employment change, and unemployment rate. Additionally, US 10-year Treasury bond rates are falling to 3.874 ahead of the jobs report.

Traders are anticipating the US Nonfarm Payrolls data, which could lessen the Federal Reserve's requirement to tighten conditions more quickly if the data is downbeat and shows rising jobless claims.

UK GDP Report and GBP/USD Exchange Rate Outlook

Market participants are waiting for the UK's GDP report release. While the market is anticipating a 0.1% increase in January's GDP, which is a significant improvement over December's 0.5% fall, the possibility of a recession in the first half of the year remains a topic of debate.

The Bank of England's ability to control inflation, which has remained high at 10.1% even after lifting the cash rate to 4.00%, will be crucial in determining how much the economy will shift.

However, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Swati Dhingra cautioned against interest rate hikes on Wednesday, stating that over-tightening poses a more significant concern. Since the BoE appears less hawkish than the Fed, an expected relaxation in UK macroeconomic data today may allow GBP/USD bears to resurface.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1.1858         1.1967

1.1790         1.2008

1.1749         1.2076

Pivot Point: 1.1899

GBP/USD – Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD pair tested the resistance level of 1.1940, remaining stable below it as the EMA50 added more strength to the resistance. The pair will likely continue its downward correctional wave with a target of 1.1625.

The Stochastic indicators show clear negative signals, suggesting a potential decline in upcoming sessions, as the pair trades within a bearish channel depicted on the chart.

Therefore, our bearish outlook remains valid and active. It is important to note that if the pair breaches the 1.1940 and 1.2020 levels, the expected decline may be halted, and the price could begin to recover.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 136.50, up 0.26% in the last 24 hours. The Bank of Japan's dovish stance and concerns over rising US interest rates have declined the Japanese yen.

US Initial Jobless Claims Increase, Driving Down Dollar Value

The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended on March 4th showed a significant increase to 211K, the highest since January, compared to the expected 195K and the previous 190K. The markets remain apprehensive due to mixed US data and growing concerns about inflation.

The higher-than-expected unemployment claims have caused a decrease in the dollar's value, with the DXY trading lower at 105.20.

Currently, investors are waiting for positive changes in the nonfarm job market, average hourly wage, and unemployment rate, as these factors are expected to boost the value of the US dollar.

The Bank of Japan's Dovish Stance

Last week, Kazuo Ueda, the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, declared that he would continue with the accommodative monetary policies implemented by his predecessor, Haruhiko Kuroda. Ueda stated that the Japanese economy has not yet fully recovered and requires sustained support.

Recently released data shows that the Japanese economy avoided a recession in the fourth quarter of 2022. The report indicates that the GDP remained unchanged in Q4 2022, falling short of economists' predictions of 0.2% growth.

According to reports, Kazuo Ueda, the next Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), is expected to maintain the bank's ultra-dovish position in the short term during today's policy meeting. However, experts predict a shift in the bank's stance later this year.

The BoJ decided to keep interest rates at record lows on Friday, stating that it would maintain its current pace of yield curve control (YCC) as it deals with a severe slowdown in the Japanese economy and pursues a leadership change. The central bank retained its short-term and long-term policy interest rates at -0.1% and 0%, respectively.

The bank also stated that it would keep the volatility in 10-year bond rates at 0.5% to negative 0.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative easing at its present level, with no surprises before a change in its top executives.

As a result of the Bank of Japan's dovish outlook, the Japanese yen dropped sharply, losing ground against the US dollar and boosting the momentum of the USD/JPY currency pair.

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

135.60         137.03

135.06         137.92

134.17         138.46

Pivot Points:136.49

USD/JPY  – Technical Outlook

The USD/JPY pair tested the bullish channel's support line yesterday, causing downward pressure. However, today the pair is trading above the line, indicating a higher possibility for a bullish trend to resume shortly, with the initial objective being the 137.70 level.

Although stochastic signals are currently positive, the price is supported by the EMA50 from below, further increasing the likelihood of a projected bullish trend.

If the price breaks below 136.30, it could result in downward pressure and end the predicted advance. The trading range for today is expected to be between 135.90 - 137.50.

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P500  is trading at 3,992.01, up 0.14% in the last 24 hours. The index gained ground as investors struggled to make sense of mixed statements made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and US economic data ahead of upcoming labor and inflation reports.

The upcoming data is anticipated to influence the central bank's rate hike plan.

US Economy and Fed Rate Hikes

On his second day of testimony before Congress on Wednesday, Powell reiterated his message of potentially higher and quicker interest rate increases, which he had already stated on Tuesday. However, he hinted that the decision on the next rate hike would depend on the data released prior to the Fed's March meeting.

In addition, data released on Wednesday showed that US private payrolls rose more than expected in February, but this did little to ease concerns about the potential for higher interest rates.

Another report indicated that US JOLTS Job Openings decreased in January, but less than anticipated. Despite the decrease, the data suggested that the labor market remained tight, with job openings falling to 10.82 million. This has raised concerns that the Fed may continue its plan to raise interest rates for an extended period.

Traders continued to increase their bets on a 50 basis point interest rate hike by the US central bank later this month. CME Group's FedWatch tool indicated a nearly 80% chance of such a rise, up from roughly 70% on Tuesday.

The dollar remained stable for the day but fell from its three-month highs as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided no new insights during his second day of congressional testimony. The DXY dropped to 105.57 as investors awaited Friday's employment data. Meanwhile, the US 10-Year Treasury Yield increased to 3.997%.

S&P Sectors

Six out of the 11 major sectors of the S&P were down, with energy showing the largest decline at 1.3%. On the other hand, real estate saw the highest increase, rising by 0.96%.

Despite a general market downturn, airline stocks survived after the Justice Department filed a lawsuit to halt JetBlue's acquisition of Spirit Airlines. United Airlines saw a 3% increase, while American and Delta had gains of 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. saw a 1.8% increase after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. raised its ownership to approximately 22.2% in the oil company.

However, Tesla Inc. fell by 3.3% after the U.S. auto safety agency announced a preliminary inquiry on 120,000 Model Y 2023 vehicles due to reports of steering wheels coming off while driving.

S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

3961            4031

3936            4075

3891            4101

Pivot Point: 4006

S&P500 – Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 (SPX) has faced resistance near the $4,060 level, which is extended by a 50% Fibonacci retracement mark, causing the index to drop again from a technical perspective. Candles closing below this level are keeping SPX in a sell zone, and the "three black crows" pattern in the 4-hour timeframe adds to the bearish bias among investors.

The SPX's immediate resistance level is $4,095, supported by a 61.8% Fibonacci correction level on the upside. A bullish breakout above the $4,035 level may lead to further gains toward the $4,200 mark. However, in the event of a breakdown below the support level of $3,930, the SPX may drop toward the next support level at $3,880.

Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold, XAU/USD, is currently trading at $1,814.99 and remaining stable as traders await the release of United States jobs data. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell addressed the House Financial Services Committee and emphasized the Fed's reliance on data. Powell also stated that the

Repetitive Remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman

Fed had underestimated the resilience of GDP and inflation, supporting the central bank's hawkish stance. As a result, market participants anticipate a 50 basis point rate increase in March, compared to the 0.25% forecasted last week.

Following the hawkish comments made by Fed Chair Powell, the US dollar gained strength against other major currencies and is currently trading at 105.58. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year bond rose to 3.991%.

The price of gold bounced back from a low of one week but didn't show much activity as Powell repeated his hawkish stance in front of the House Financial Service Committee.

US Economy and Gold: How Economic Data Impacts the Price of Gold

Positive economic data from the US has resulted in downward pressure on the XAU/USD market, despite repeated remarks from Fed Chair Powell offering relief to gold traders.

On Wednesday, the US ADP Employment Change rose to 242K in February, exceeding expectations of 200K and the revised figure of 119K for the previous period.

Additionally, the US JOLTS Job Openings for January increased to 10.824M, surpassing the expected 10.6M but lower than the previous 11.234M.

However, the lack of a significant surprise for the market and the cautious sentiments ahead of Friday's important United States jobs data contributes to the most recent inactivity of Gold.

US to Lift COVID-19 Travel Restrictions for Chinese Travelers

On Wednesday, China called for the normalization of cross-border travel, as the US is reportedly looking to ease COVID-19 testing restrictions for Chinese tourists. Additionally, the US has adopted a relaxed schedule and lifted testing requirements for tourists from China in a bid to boost trade.

Looking forward, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February and the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for China is expected to impact gold prices.

Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1809            1823

1802            1831

1794            1838

Pivot Point: 1816

Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook

After briefly showing bullish movement around the $1828.70 level, gold prices have since reversed and continued their downward trend, currently within the depicted bearish channel on the chart, with a target of $1788.20. Due to the prior level break, the EMA50's negative pressure on the price supports the continuation of this anticipated decline.

However, a potential stop to the bearish scenario and a likely attempt at recovery with an initial target of $1878.80 could occur if the price breaks above $1828.70 and $1843.70. The expected trading range for the day is between the support level of $1790.00 and the resistance level of $1825.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0547, attempting to extend the recovery from a two-month low achieved on the previous day. However, mixed data from the US and the Eurozone, combined with the cautious sentiment surrounding Friday's employment report, have limited the recent movements of the Euro currency pair.

ECB Rate Hikes Expectations

On Wednesday, the focus was on the European economy, with several reports being closely watched. In January, German retail sales saw a decline to -6.9% YoY from -6.4% in December, but industrial production growth surged to 3.5% from the predicted 1.4% and -2.4% in December, indicating a robust recovery.

On the other hand, Eurozone's Q4 Employment Change dropped to 0.3% QoQ, falling below market predictions of 0.4% and previous readings. Additionally, the seasonally adjusted GDP eased to 1.8% YoY in the same period, compared to market predictions of 1.9%.

Following these statistics, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco emphasized the importance of prudent monetary policy and stated that data should be used to influence monetary policy.

Despite his hawkish stance and support for gradual rate rises, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, has already announced an increase in rates by 50 basis points at the March monetary policy meeting, citing concerns about high inflation.

With rising concerns about inflation in the Eurozone, investors are anticipating further rate hikes from the ECB, resulting in significant bids for the Euro.

Jerome Powell Testimony

On the other hand, the US Goods and Services Trade Balance decreased to -$68.3B, compared to analysts' estimates of -$68.9B and the prior reading of -$ 67.2 B. The US JOLTS Job Openings for January increased to 10.824 million, exceeding the anticipated 10.6 million but down from the previously revised 11.234 million.

The US dollar remained steady throughout the day, although it has fallen from its three-month high, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide any new information during his second day of testimony before Congress. As of now, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 105.61.

BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, predicts that the US federal funds rate will reach its peak at 6%, following a warning from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that interest rates are likely to rise more than initially anticipated by the central bank.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his hawkish stance during his testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee. Powell indicated that the central bank had misjudged the strength of GDP and inflation, emphasizing the importance of data in the Fed's decision-making process.

EUR/USD traders are eagerly anticipating Friday's US jobs data, which may provide further clarity on the direction of the pair.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1.0524         1.0573

1.0500         1.0598

1.0475         1.0622

Pivot Point: 1.0549

EUR/USD – Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair tested the exponential moving average (EMA) 50 in mildly bearish trading yesterday. However, stochastic is now gaining positive momentum, indicating a potential resumption of the main bullish trend with a next target of 1.1030.

We maintain a positive outlook for the near future, but it should be noted that a break below 1.0845 could lead to a test of the 1.0745 zones before attempting to rise again.

Today's trading may vary between the support level of 1.0800 and the resistance level of 1.0970.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair has failed to stop its previous declines and is still flashing red around the $1.1810 mark amidst ongoing Brexit uncertainties and chatter from the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy.

At present, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading within a relatively tight range of 1.1810 to 1.1842, with the current price at 1.1831, indicating a lack of decisive market movements. Ongoing Brexit uncertainties and mixed signals from the US Federal Reserve may be contributing to this trend.

Brexit has been a major driver of the GBP/USD pair's poor performance, as investors remain concerned about the UK's future relationship with the European Union. The lack of progress on these issues has resulted in GBP losses and affected the pair's overall performance.

Additionally, the Bank of England's monetary policy stance has played a role in the GBP/USD pair's performance. The central bank has been under pressure to support the UK economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and has implemented a range of monetary policy tools, such as interest rate cuts and asset purchases.

Feds Hawkish Stance & Bullish US Dollar

Recently, the US Federal Reserve has taken a hawkish tone, suggesting that interest rates may be raised sooner than originally anticipated. This has led to a stronger US dollar, as traders anticipate tighter monetary policy in the future, reinforced by positive economic indicators such as lower unemployment and increasing inflation.

The bullish US dollar has an impact on other currencies, including the GBP/USD pair, as traders adjust their strategies in response to changing market conditions. This hawkish approach and strong US currency suggest the possibility of a shift in the global economic environment in the coming months.

On Wednesday, the US dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies, reaching its highest level in three months. The dollar index and dollar index futures both rose by 0.2%, hitting their best levels since early December. The reasons for the dollar's rise are not entirely clear, but it may be due to global economic uncertainty and market volatility, as well as the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone and the strength of the US economy.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1.1997         1.2052

1.1967         1.2079

1.1941         1.2108

Pivot Point: 1.2023

GBP/USD – Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD pair has strongly broken the 1.1940 level and is currently hovering around the 1.1800 level, indicating a return to the bearish correctional track. Further expected declines are likely on an intraday and short-term basis, with our next target at 1.1625.

As such, we anticipate continued bearish trend dominance in the upcoming trading sessions, bolstered by the negative pressure from the EMA50. However, there may be some temporary sideways fluctuation due to the current positivity of stochastic before the expected decline resumes.

It should be noted that breaking through the 1.1940 level would halt the current negative pressure and initiate new recovery attempts. Today's projected trading range is between 1.1720 support and 1.1890 resistance.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has been unable to halt its downward trend and remains offered at the 0.6600 level. It is under significant selling pressure and has dropped to its lowest point since late December, currently trading at 0.6568. There is a possibility of further declines as RBA Governor Lowe considers a break in the policy-tightening cycle.

Additionally, the AUD/USD currency pair has been under pressure due to hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Powell stated that strong economic data will most likely lead to higher interest rates than previously anticipated to combat inflation.

On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy statement was dovish, combined with the continued upward trend of the US Dollar, putting significant pressure on the AUD/USD pair. As a result, the Australian Dollar is currently the worst-performing G10 currency.

Feds Hawkish Stance & Bullish US Dollar

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that strong economic data will likely lead to higher interest rates to curb inflation. As a result, the market-implied probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March has increased from 30% to 50%, according to CME Group's interest-rate futures.

Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance and raise interest rates for a longer period to combat persistent inflation. This is contributing to a strongly offered tone around the AUD/USD pair.

Additionally, the US dollar has risen to a three-month high against a basket of currencies, with both the dollar index and dollar index futures climbing around 0.2%, reaching their highest levels since early December.

Reopening of Chinese Economy

RBA Governor Lowe stated that the reopening of the Chinese economy is expected to have a positive impact on the Australian economy. This is due to the fact that China is one of Australia's largest trading partners, and a boost in Chinese economic activity can result in increased demand for Australian exports, such as natural gas, coal, and iron ore.

This statement was seen as a positive development that could help the AUD/USD pair recover some of its strength.

AUD/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

0.6708         0.6762

0.6686         0.6792

0.6655         0.6815

Pivot Point: 0.6739

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has broken below the 0.6665 level and is currently trading bearishly toward the second target of 0.6550. It is moving within a bearish channel, which increases the chances of further bearish correction and a potential decline toward 0.6400.

The EMA50 continues to provide support for the bearish wave, and negative momentum may be required to achieve the necessary break and reach the expected target.

However, if the pair manages to breach the 0.6665 level, it could stop the expected decline and initiate recovery attempts, with an initial target of 0.6780. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6500 support and 0.6620 resistance.

Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold (XAU/USD) has been continuously dropping with no signs of an impending reversal. It is currently trading around the $1,812 level, indicating that sellers are willing to part with gold at that price.

This decrease in gold prices is attributed to the recent remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which were deemed "hawkish." This suggests a more aggressive approach to monetary policy in order to combat inflation.

As a result, investors have redirected their attention to other investments such as stocks, which offer potentially higher returns. Additionally, the bullish bias of the US dollar, fueled by the Fed's hawkish stance, is also seen as a major factor that is exerting further downward pressure on gold prices.

Typically, gold and the US dollar have a negative correlation, meaning that when the value of the US dollar increases, the price of gold tends to decrease, and vice versa.

US Dollar Jumps on Powell's Remarks

On Wednesday, the US dollar gained significant support and reached a three-month high against a range of currencies. This was due to the surge in Treasury yields following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's suggestion that interest rates are likely to climb faster than what the market had forecasted.

Powell stated that the recent release of strong economic statistics would likely result in higher interest rates than previously anticipated to combat inflation.

Investors perceived this as a more aggressive monetary policy approach, leading to speculations of a 50 basis point interest rate hike in March instead of the previously predicted 25 basis point increase. CME Group's interest-rate futures show the market-implied probability of a 50 bps raise at the FOMC meeting in March increased from around 30% to 50%.

Therefore, the increase in the value of the US dollar had a significant adverse effect on the price of gold. This is due to the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar, which means that when the value of the US dollar rises, the price of gold tends to fall, and vice versa.

Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

1825            1846

1813            1856

1803            1868

Pivot Point: 1835

Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook

Yesterday, the price of gold experienced a significant decline, breaking below the key level of $1828.70 and closing the daily candlestick below it. This has once again put the price under bearish pressure, with a potential target of $1788.20.

The bearish channel is guiding this downward trend, and the EMA50 is providing additional downward pressure on the price.

Although the Stochastic indicator is currently showing some positive momentum, it is not expected to significantly slow down the bearish wave. Unless the price can rally to break above $1828.70, followed by $1848.00 and maintain levels above them, the bias for today remains bearish. For today's trading, the expected range is between support at $1790.00 and resistance at $1825.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD

The Yellow-Metal Prices Has Failed To Stop Its Losing Streak & Remained Well Offered Around the 1,812 Level Amid Powell’s Hawkish Comments

The gold price has been falling and has not yet shown any indications of reversing course. It is currently being offered at around the 1,812 level, which means that people are willing to sell gold at that price.However, the reason for this decline in gold prices is attributed to the recent comments made by Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. His remarks were considered "hawkish," which means that he expressed a more aggressive stance on monetary policy to curb inflation.

This has caused investors to shift their focus towards other investments, such as stocks, which offer potentially higher returns. Furthermore, the US dollar's bullish bias, driven by Fed's hawkish stance, was seen as another key factor that put p=furthr pressure on the gold prices as the gold and the US dollar typically have a negative correlation. This means that when the value of the US dollar rises, the price of gold tends to fall, and when the value of the US dollar falls, the price of gold tends to rise.

US Dollar jumps on Powell

The broad-based U.S. dollar gained substantial support and reached a three-month high against a bucket of currencies on Wednesday, tracking a surge in Treasury yields after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that interest rates were likely to climb faster than market forecasts.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that the previously released slew of strong economic statistics will most likely lead to higher interest rates than previously anticipated to combat inflation.

Market participants interpreted this as a hawkish stance on monetary policy. This led to increased expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate hike in March, as opposed to the previously predicted 25 basis point increase.

According to interest-rate futures monitored by CME Group, the market-implied probability of a 50 bps raise at the FOMC meeting in March jumped from around 30% to 50%.

Hence, the rise in the value of the US dollar had a significant negative impact on the price of gold. This is because gold and the US dollar typically have a negative correlation, meaning that when the value of the US dollar goes up, the price of gold goes down, and vice versa.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

0.6708         0.6762
0.6686         0.6792
0.6655         0.6815
Pivot Point: 0.6739

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has been trading sideways recently, with its stability remaining below 0.6780. It is still moving within a bearish channel on the chart, supporting our view and targeting the next level of 0.6665.

The EMA50 is also supporting this bearish trend. However, if the pair manages to break above 0.6780, it could stop the current bearish correction and lead to an attempt to regain the primary bullish trend.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6670 support and 0.6780 resistance.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.6713, having declined by 0.21% in the last 24 hours. The pair suffered significant losses due to China's failure to meet its GDP target and the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate announcement.

China disappointing GDP target

Over the weekend, the Chinese government announced a 5% GDP target for 2023, which is lower than the previous year's target of 5.5%. This figure was below market expectations and indicated Beijing's relatively cautious approach toward an economic recovery this year.

Despite business activity expanding at its highest rate in almost a decade in February after the removal of anti-COVID restrictions, the lower GDP target dampened hopes for a Chinese economic revival.

In addition, currencies that are sensitive to the Chinese economy, such as the Australian dollar, fell after the disappointing GDP target announcement.

RBA Rate Statement

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates, as expected, to control inflation, reaching a 10-year high. The RBA raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60%, and it also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 3.50%.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe stated that Australia's inflation had likely peaked and was expected to moderate in the coming months. He added that the RBA would continue to follow a data-driven approach for future rate hikes. However, he warned that the Australian economy's path to a soft landing is narrow.

Although the RBA's decision to raise the benchmark interest rate was in line with market expectations, the lack of any hawkish surprise appears to have weighed on the AUD. As a result, the Australian dollar experienced a significant decline.

Powell testimony approaches

Today during the US session, Powell is scheduled to speak before Congress and provide insight into the timeline for the direction of interest rates. However, market participants are uncertain what tone the Fed Chair will take, given that while inflation unexpectedly jumped in January, other economic data showed that the US economy was slowing down.

If Powell takes a more hawkish stance, it will improve expectations for US interest rate action and support the Dollar. Currently, DXY is trading lower at around 104.23.

The nonfarm payrolls report for February, which will be released on Friday, is also a key focus this week. Further indications of job market strength would give the Fed more flexibility to raise rates.

AUD/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support      Resistance

0.6708         0.6762

0.6686         0.6792

0.6655         0.6815

Pivot Point: 0.6739

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has been trading sideways recently, with its stability remaining below 0.6780. It is still moving within a bearish channel on the chart, supporting our view and targeting the next level of 0.6665.

The EMA50 is also supporting this bearish trend. However, if the pair manages to break above 0.6780, it could stop the current bearish correction and lead to an attempt to regain the primary bullish trend.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6670 support and 0.6780 resistance.