EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways after rising above 1.0970 in the early Asian session. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment and ISM Services PMI data, which could affect the currency pair's movement.
US Dollar Index refreshes monthly low as Fed's status-quo decision looms
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 ended the day with losses as investors became cautious before the US economic reports, leading to a decrease in risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) also hit a monthly low near 101.46 as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining the status quo for its May monetary policy meeting.
The CME Fedwatch tool indicates a 60% likelihood of the Fed's interest rate decision remaining unchanged. The Fed is expected to focus on contracting manufacturing activities to prevent the US economy from slipping into a recession. The release of US economic data on Wednesday is expected to provide more clarity.
Weak job openings data indicates US labor market is cooling
According to consensus, the US economy added 200,000 new jobs in March, which is lower than the previous addition of 242,000. However, if the US labor market continues to remain tight, there is still hope for one more rate hike from the Fed. On Tuesday, data revealed lower talent acquisition requests, dropping to 9.9 million compared to January's 10.5 million and market expectations of 10.4 million.
US ISM Services PMI expected to contract, keeping investors busy
Aside from US Employment data, investors are also keeping an eye on the US ISM Services PMI. It is expected to decline from 55.1 to 54.5, and the New Orders Index, which reflects forward-demand, is expected to drop from 62.6 to 57.6.
In the Eurozone, ECB policymakers are pleased as consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 4.6% in February from January's 4.9%. However, the data does not include the recent increase in oil prices, which could affect the outlook. ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to continue hiking rates.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0843 1.0946
1.0782 1.0988
1.0740 1.1049
Pivot Point: 1.0885
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair has surged and crossed the resistance level of 1.0900 and is currently trading above it, indicating a positive trend for the day. There is an expectation for further upward movement towards the next target of 1.1032.
The EMA50 is supportive of the bullish trend, and it is expected that the price will gain positive momentum to reach the target.
The bullish trend is likely to continue in the upcoming sessions unless there is a break below 1.0880 and if it stays below that level. The trading range for the day is expected to be between the support level of 1.0840 and the resistance level of 1.0990.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
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* GOLD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Early Wednesday, AUD/USD bears took a break around mid-0.6700s, as traders awaited a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe. The RBA paused its rate hike trajectory and satisfied sellers the previous day by maintaining its current monetary policy with a benchmark rate of 3.60%. The Australian central bank attributed the recent decline in Australian inflation and retail sales data to justify the status quo while also acknowledging the possibility of further monetary tightening.
Russian Foreign Minister Raises Fears of Escalating Moscow-Brussels Tussle
Meanwhile, the US dollar's reserve currency status has been challenged, contributing to a risk-on mood in the market. Bloomberg reported that the Chinese yuan surpassed the US dollar as the most traded currency in Russia in February, with the gap continuing to widen in March. Brazil and China also agreed to pause the US dollar's usage as an intermediary in trade transactions. Furthermore, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov raised concerns about escalating tensions with Brussels and indicated that Moscow would deal with Europe more harshly if necessary.
US-China Tension Continues as Beijing Criticizes Meeting Between Taiwan President and US House Speaker
The ongoing US-China tension remains a topic of discussion as well. On Tuesday, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen met with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, which drew criticism from China's Consulate General in Los Angeles.
AUD/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
0.6678 0.6742
0.6640 0.6768
0.6614 0.6806
Pivot Point: 0.6704
AUD/USD – Technical Outlook
The AUDUSD pair encounters strong resistance at the 0.6780 level, currently displaying a bearish bias due to the negative impact of stochastic indicators, while awaiting positive momentum to help the price break through the aforementioned level and confirm its trajectory towards 0.6920 as the next target.
Consequently, our bullish outlook for today is contingent upon the price remaining stable above 0.6735, as breaking this level will exert pressure on the price to test the 0.6665 region before attempting another rise.
Today's expected trading range lies between the 0.6720 support and 0.6850 resistance levels.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices soared to their highest in over a year on Tuesday, finally breaking through and maintaining a position above the $2,000 mark as the US Dollar and bond yields fell. The weaker greenback and additional US data contributed to the yellow metal's rally from a compressed formation. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $2,020, up 1.8%.
US Job Openings Drop to Lowest Level in Nearly Two Years
US job openings in February dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years, accompanied by a continued decline in factory orders. Job openings, an indicator of labor demand, fell from 632,000 to 9.9 million at the end of February, the lowest since May 2021, according to the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. "The largest decline in openings was in professional and business services, followed by healthcare. Accommodation and food services saw openings fall back to mid-2022 levels. Construction job openings increased despite the sector's interest rate sensitivity," analysts at ANZ Bank stated.
Factory Orders Decline for Second Consecutive Month
US factory orders declined for a second consecutive month, down 0.7% in February following a 2.1% drop in January and a 1.7% increase in December. This data comes after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported yesterday that its Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest since May 2020, from 47.7 in February.
Persistent Inflation Concerns Expected to Fuel Hawkish Fed Sentiment
In part, the data echoed last week's PCE data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, which had mixed results. While both headline and core figures were slightly lower than anticipated, the super core accelerated for a second consecutive month to 4.63% YoY, its highest level since October. "This is not the direction the Fed desires, and we expect the hawkish tilt in Fed comments to persist," analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1959 2000
1934 2016
1918 2040
Pivot Point: 1975
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price experienced a significant rally, surpassing our initial target of $2,000.00 and breaking through the recently recorded high of $2,009.78, confirming the continuation of the dominant bullish trend for upcoming sessions.
Our next target is set at $2,040.00, as we anticipate further increases in the short term and intraday basis.
It's important to note that maintaining a position above $2,009.78 is a prerequisite for sustaining the bullish trend.
Related:
* AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 04, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY is trading at 133.16, showing an increase of 0.36% in the last 24 hours. The release of Japan's economic data related to the labor market, retail demand, and Tokyo CPI has led to a significant upward movement for the currency pair.
Furthermore, as fears about additional bank failures wane, the Japanese Yen, which is considered a global safe-haven asset, is declining against the US dollar.
US GDP Plunges, Pushing USD/JPY Lower
The final estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 has decreased slightly from 2.7% to 2.6%, down from the Q3 print of 3.2%. Additionally, US data released on Thursday revealed that unemployment claims from the previous week increased to 198K, higher than expected, indicating a softening labor market. These data points support the argument for a more relaxed Federal Reserve stance.
As markets continue to downplay the likelihood of further rate hikes, the US Dollar Basket (DXY), a gauge of USD performance, dropped to 102.17 after the release of the GDP report.
On Friday, the core PCE price index, which the Fed prefers to use as a measure of inflation, will be released. The index will provide further details on the state of the world's leading economy and may offer additional support for the USD/JPY pair.
Tokyo Inflation Slowdown, Weakening JPY
In March, Tokyo's inflation rate continued to decrease, following a significant decline in February caused by government subsidies for electricity costs. According to statistics from the Statistical Bureau, Tokyo's Core CPI increased by 3.2% in the 12 months ending in March, slightly above forecasts for growth of 3.1% but falling short of the previous month's figure of 3.3%.
Overall, Tokyo's CPI rose by 3.3% in March, slightly down from the 3.4% increase recorded in February. Steady inflation indicates that the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) goal to maintain inflation consistently at desired targets remains unaffected. This may increase the likelihood of ending the ultra-loose monetary policy.
However, retail demand in Japan remained strong in February. Yearly Retail Sales data has increased significantly from an estimated 5.8% to 6.6%. The BoJ's policymakers and the Japanese government are concerned that factors outside of domestic demand are primarily responsible for inflationary pressures in Japan. Nevertheless, current retail demand may alleviate some concerns.
Furthermore, the dismal labor market statistics are driving the recent decline of the Japanese Yen. Compared to the consensus and the previous announcement of 2.4%, the unemployment rate has risen to 2.6%. The USD/JPY as a safe haven has risen as Japan's increasing unemployment rate requires the continuation of the BoJ's loose policy.
USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
132.52 133.57
131.84 133.94
131.46 134.62
Pivot Point: 132.89
USD/JPY – Technical Outlook
The USDJPY pair experienced a noticeable decline after testing the 133.30 level in previous sessions, resuming the anticipated bearish trend on both intraday and short-term basis. The next primary targets are the 131.60 and 130.40 levels.
To reinforce the expectations of continuing the bearish trend and moving towards the suggested targets, the price needs to break through the strong support base formed by the EMA50, which currently stands at 132.50.
The projected trading range for today is between 131.60 support and 133.30 resistance.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – April 4, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 4, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at 1,980.01, down 0.23% in the last 24 hours. As the US Dollar gains strength amidst mixed market sentiments, the price of gold is declining.
OPEC’s Surprise Decision
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its associates, also known as OPEC+, have announced output target cutbacks on Sunday, causing confusion in the inflation forecast and sending oil prices higher. OPEC+ has reduced its output target by 1.1 million barrels per day, resulting in an approximately 6% overnight increase in Brent crude prices.
Moreover, Russia has stated that it will continue to aim for a reduction of 500,000 barrels per day through the end of the year, further fueling inflation concerns and projections of a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's outlook for rate hikes.
As a result, XAU/USD declined due to the rising demand for the US dollar as a safe haven, following the approval of a surprise output reduction by OPEC+. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently up 0.16%, trading at 102.26.
Odds of Fed Rate Hikes
Data released on Monday from the US suggests that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle. The ISM manufacturing index for March fell to 46.3, the lowest level since May 2020.
Prior to the release of the US ISM report, markets were anticipating a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in May, with a probability of almost 60%. However, after the disappointing data, the likelihood of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike next month dropped to 54%. Consequently, the rates on US Treasury bonds fell, with the benchmark 10-year yield returning to 3.421%.
Despite revived inflation concerns being ignored by the markets, there has been some improvement in risk sentiment due to the resurgence of dovish Fed forecasts. However, the US Dollar is rebounding, limiting the XAU/USD.
Gold traders are now awaiting the release of mid-tier US economic data later in the day, such as JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders, for new trading momentum.
Ultimately, the value of the US Dollar will have an impact on the XAU/USD. Therefore, the attitude of Wall Street is also important. Moreover, statements from Federal Reserve officials will be significant ahead of Friday's crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report from the United States.
Gold Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1959 2000
1934 2016
1918 2040
Pivot Point: 1975
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price concluded positively yesterday, settling above the $1,962.50 level. It halted the bearish correction and is now poised to resume the primary bullish trend, supported by the EMA50. The next major targets are anticipated to be the $2,000.00 and $2,040.00 levels.
The price is again moving within the symmetrical triangle, and a breach of the $1,985.00 level is necessary to provide the positive momentum required to rally toward the aforementioned targets. It should be noted that the current negativity of the stochastic indicator may impede the attempts to continue rising and could lead to some sideways fluctuations.
Generally, a bullish bias is expected for the near future, contingent upon the price maintaining stability above $1,962.50. A break below this level would pressure the price to revert to the corrective bearish trend, with initial targets set at visiting the $1,933.20 area.
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* USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 04, 2023
Dogecoin Price Analysis – April 04, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
DOGE/USD is currently trading over 25% higher at 0.097920. This surge in value occurred after Elon Musk changed the Twitter web logo to a Shiba Inu, which resulted in a significant increase in the value of Dogecoin.
Twitter's New Logo Results in Rise of Dogecoin
On Monday, Twitter users were greeted with an unusual sight - the blue bird logo that had been there previously was nowhere to be seen. Elon Musk, the most vocal advocate of Dogecoin, changed the bird logo on his company's website to a picture of a Shiba Inu, the dog that represents the meme token Dogecoin.
This platform-wide symbol update is visible to the approximately 360 million monthly active users and visitors of the social media giant. Shortly after the change, the CEO of Twitter and Tesla posted a meme that appeared to suggest the adjustment would remain for some time.
Additionally, Dogecoin's value increased dramatically after the modification, pushing its price to over $0.10 for the first time in several months. The volatile cryptocurrency surged by more than 30% in just 30 minutes.
Some users speculated that it might have been an April Fool's joke that the company couldn't implement on time for April 1st. However, the conversation with the moderator of the popular r/WallStreetBets subreddit on Twitter played a role in the change.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1642976364080041984?cxt=HHwWgMDUtYuTg80tAAAA
Furthermore, this change occurred shortly after Elon Musk asked a US court to dismiss a $258 billion lawsuit filed against him by Dogecoin investors who accused him of operating a pyramid scheme.
Elon Musk's Lawyers Seek Dismissal of $258 Billion Dogecoin Lawsuit
Elon Musk is now facing a $258 billion racketeering lawsuit filed by cryptocurrency investors who accused him of intentionally driving up the price of Dogecoin.
The plaintiffs in the US lawsuit claim that Mr. Musk's social media activity and his appearance on Saturday Night Live resulted in a surge of over 36,000% in the price of Dogecoin, which he then allowed to drop.
The complaint alleges that Mr. Musk leveraged his position as the world's wealthiest man to operate and manipulate the Dogecoin Pyramid Scheme.
On Friday, Mr. Musk's lawyers urged a US judge to dismiss the $258 billion fraud lawsuit, stating that humorous pictures and words of encouragement on Twitter do not constitute fraud.
Dogecoin Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
0.080134 0.107994
0.064237 0.119957
0.052274 0.135854
Pivot Point: 0.092097
Dogecoin – Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the DOGE/USD pair has surpassed a triple top resistance level at $0.1000, and a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern might propel DOGE towards the $0.1200 level.
Typically, a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern indicates a continuation of an upward trend. If DOGE continues to hold above $0.0850 level, Dogecoin's price could aim for the $0.120 level.
Conversely, support is present at the $0.0850 level, and a bearish breakout from this point may drive Dogecoin toward the $0.0718 mark.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
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* GOLD Price Analysis – April 4, 2023
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading 1.44% higher at 4,109.31. US stocks have managed to record significant gains in the first quarter despite the banking crisis.
S&P 500 Gained in Q1
In the first three months (Q1) of 2023, the S&P 500 climbed by more than 5%. The quarterly growth came despite a significant sell-off in banking stocks due to the failure of two banking institutions earlier this month and fears of a broader financial meltdown.
US stocks were moving higher as key benchmark averages ended the week on a bullish note, supported by easing PCE data. According to data released on Friday, the Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, came in lower than anticipated last month. The index, which excludes food and energy expenses, increased 0.3% in February, versus a 0.4% increase expected by Dow Jones economists.
The signs of easing inflation raise confidence that the Federal Reserve will soon halt raising interest rates aggressively. As a result, market pricing for the forthcoming Fed meeting on May 3 implies a 42% possibility that the central bank will hit the pause button and keep rates unchanged.
Furthermore, based on current market pricing, a 50 bp reduction by year's end is possible. The expectations of the Fed's easing of its aggressive attitude improved market sentiments, and the S&P 500 increased.
Looking ahead as we enter the first week of April, the next US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released during the early hours of US trade on Monday. For more information on the PMI, you can visit the official website of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) at www.ismworld.org.
Most Active Stocks
The most active S&P 500 Index stocks today are Tesla, Apple, Ford Motor, Intel, and Amazon.com, all of which are seeing gains. Tesla Inc. has increased by 6.42% following its report of record quarterly deliveries after implementing price cuts.
Although the company reported record quarterly vehicle deliveries on Sunday, sales growth quarter-over-quarter was modest despite price cuts and increased competition. Ford Motor Corporation (F) is up 2.52%, and Apple has gained 1.56%.
Intel (INTC), which is up 1.81%, has assured Wall Street that its roadmap for data center processors is on track. The chip manufacturer claims to be active in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence business. The shares of Intel increased as a result of the news.
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
4036 4062
4021 4073
4010 4088
Pivot Point: 4047
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
On Monday, the S&P 500 is trading with a pronounced bullish momentum above 4,100, with a firm support level at 4,030. However, substantial resistance may be encountered due to the double-top pattern at 4,175.
If the index surpasses this level, the SPX price could be driven towards the next resistance level of 4,170. On the other hand, if the SPX drops below 4,040, it might face intense selling pressure and potentially decline to the 3,920 and 3,840 levels.
Technical indicators, such as MACD and RSI, are both in the buying zone, indicating a strong bullish tendency. Investors are likely to focus on the 4,040 level, and if the candle closes above it, the SPX price may see an upward trend today.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The weekly uptrend in EUR/USD seems to have encountered a strong obstacle around the monthly highs near 1.0930 on Friday. The currency pair has given up some ground after four consecutive daily gains at the week's end due to disappointing German economic data and a resurgence of buying interest in the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, expectations of further rate hikes by the ECB, possibly as early as the May event, continue to support the pair's upward momentum, especially against the backdrop of growing speculation that the Federal Reserve might keep rates unchanged at its next meeting.
In the domestic arena, German Retail Sales contracted by 7.1% YoY in February, while the March jobs report indicated a 16K-person increase in Unemployment Change and a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.6%.
Later in the session, flash inflation figures for the euro area will take center stage, followed by a speech from ECB Chairwoman Christine Lagarde.
In the US, the focus will be on releasing inflation data as measured by the PCE, along with Personal Income/Spending and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0843 1.0946
1.0782 1.0988
1.0740 1.1049
Pivot Point: 1.0885
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EURUSD pair begins today's trading with a pronounced negative shift, breaking the intraday bullish trend line and moving towards an anticipated decline on an intraday basis.
The initial target is to test the 1.0745 level while keeping an eye on the price as it reaches this level, as breaking it could extend the bearish wave towards the 1.0630 area as the next primary station.
As a result, a bearish inclination is predicted for today, bolstered by the pair currently trading below the EMA50. However, it is important to note that a breach of the 1.0870 level would halt the negative scenario, prompting the price to resume its primary bullish trajectory.
Today's expected trading range lies between 1.0730 support and 1.0875 resistance.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
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* BTC/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
BTC/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The BTC/USD is currently trading at 27,750, experiencing a 1.50% drop within the last 24 hours. Bitcoin's (BTC) recent surge seems to have paused just below the $30,000 mark, following the cryptocurrency's capitalization on the turmoil in the traditional finance sector, particularly the fallout from the banking crisis.
Analysts assert that breaking the $30,000 resistance level could be a significant milestone for the leading cryptocurrency based on its historical price behavior.
Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland highlighted in an April 2 tweet that $30,000 has served as a crucial resistance and support level for Bitcoin over the past two years. He speculated that if Bitcoin were to successfully flip this level, it could signify a game-changing moment.
Hyland also observed that the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices demonstrated remarkable resilience, ending the week on a positive note. However, he emphasized that widespread pessimism and skepticism persist in the market, with many investors remaining cautious about the current economic environment.
In a similar vein, a Bitcoin analyst using the Twitter alias Stockmoney Lizards urged patience in the crypto market, pointing out that the asset encounters resistance at $30,000. He added that if this resistance is overcome, Bitcoin is likely to soar.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
27516 28908
26689 29473
26124 30300
Pivot Point: 28081
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
Bitcoin's price has been correcting lower from the $28,800 area, with the potential for increased bearish momentum if it falls decisively below the $27,500 support level. Although Bitcoin managed to climb above the $28,500 resistance level, it faced difficulty in gaining traction to surpass the $28,800 and $29,000 levels.
The latest swing high was established around $28,595 before the price underwent a downside correction. It dropped below the $28,200 support level and the 100-hour simple moving average, with bears driving the price beneath the $28,000 support zone.
Immediate resistance lies around $27,820, which is close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $28,595 swing high to the $27,578 low.
Should Bitcoin fail to break the $28,100 resistance, it may experience another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $27,600 zone, followed by major support around $27,500. A downward breach below the $27,500 support could trigger a new decline, with the next critical support near $27,000. If the price falls below this level, it could test the $26,600 mark.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2023
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0916, up 0.14% in 24 hours. The currency pair increased to weekly highs amid surprisingly positive German inflation data. The Dollar fell following the GDP announcement, but risk-on sentiment supported the Euro.
Dollar Drops on GDP Report
The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 25 basis points last week as anticipated. However, they did so with caution because of the uncertainty in the banking industry.
Additionally, US data released on Thursday showed that last week's jobless claims increased more than anticipated from the week before, indicating a cooling labor market. Likewise, fourth-quarter GDP growth came in at 2.6% as opposed to earlier estimates of 2.7%, supporting the claim for a softer Fed stance.
The GDP report fell short of expert estimates and provided another reason for the dollar to decline. Therefore, DXY is trading lower at 102.16. The weaker dollar made the EUR/USD pair stronger.
Moreover, expectations of a Fed pause or a 25 bps rate rise in May are almost equally divided, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool.
The core PCE price index, which the Fed prefers to use as a measure of inflation, will be released on Friday and will offer more hints about the state of the world's largest economy.
Hopes for Rate Hikes from ECB
In the Eurozone, German headline inflation fell to its lowest level since last summer in March. It declined after prices increased in March 2022. In contrast to the expert consensus of 7.3%, Germany's inflation rate decreased from 8.7% in February to 7.4% in March.
Data indicate a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Germany's annual rate, which has reached its lowest level since August 2022. However, other than the costs of energy and commodities, there is currently no evidence of a broader disinflationary trend.
Germany's inflation fell sharply in March due to decreasing energy costs. However, it was still higher than expected, putting more pressure on the European Central Bank to tighten its monetary policy. As a result, the EUR/USD currency pair rises sharply when German inflation figures surprise the unexpected, boosting market sentiment.
As long as the current banking turmoil is controlled, the ECB will maintain the well-known distinction of using interest rates to combat inflation. The ECB will continue to tighten monetary policy since there are currently no signs of a disinflationary trend, even after considering energy and commodity prices. Therefore, with the ECB projected to hike borrowing costs a couple more times in the coming months, the Euro has room to appreciate even higher.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0843 1.0946
1.0782 1.0988
1.0740 1.1049
Pivot Point: 1.0885
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair experienced further positive movements yesterday, surpassing the 1.0900 level and attempting to maintain its position above it. This bolsters the continuation of the anticipated bullish trend on an intraday and short-term basis, with the next target situated at 1.1032.
Consequently, we will maintain our bullish outlook for the upcoming period, consistently supported by the EMA50. It is important to note that breaching 1.0920 is crucial for the continuation of the upward trend, as failure to do so could create a negative pattern that may pressure the price to reverse course and head towards the 1.0805 area initially. Today's expected trading range is between 1.0840 support and 1.1000 resistance.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
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* GOLD Price Analysis – March 31, 2023