USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY is trading at 133.16, up by 0.36% in 24 hours. The release of Japan's economic figures related to the labor market, retail demand, and Tokyo CPI has resulted in a substantial upward movement for the currency pair.
Moreover, as concerns about additional bank collapse fade, the Japanese Yen, one of the global safe-haven assets, is moving downward versus the US dollar.
US GDP Plunges, Pushing USD/JPY Lower
The final estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 decreased marginally from 2.7% to 2.6%, down from the Q3 print of 3.2%. Also, according to US data issued on Thursday, the unemployment claims from the previous week rose to 198K, more than expected, pointing to a softening labor market. The data supports the argument for a softer Fed attitude.
Meanwhile, as markets continued to minimize the chance of additional rate rises, the US Dollar Basket (DXY), a gauge of USD performance, fell to 102.17 after the GDP report release.
On Friday, the core PCE price index, which the Fed prefers to use as a gauge of inflation, will be issued. The index will provide more details on the state of the leading economy in the world. Furthermore, it may offer more support for the USD/JPY pair.
Tokyo Inflation Slowdown, Weakening JPY
Inflation in Tokyo continued to drop in March after a strong decline in February, caused by government subsidies for electricity costs.
According to statistics from the Statistical Bureau, Tokyo's Core CPI has increased by 3.2% in the 12 months ending in March, above forecasts for growth of 3.1% but falling short of the previous month's figure of 3.3%. Tokyo's CPI rose 3.3% overall in March, slightly down from the 3.4% increase recorded in February.
Steady inflation indicates that the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) aim to keep inflation consistently at desired targets remains unaffected. It might ensure the likelihood of ending the ultra-loose monetary policy.
Nonetheless, retail demand in Japan remained strong in February. Yearly Retail Sales data has increased significantly from an estimated 5.8% to 6.6%. The BoJ's policymakers and the Japanese government are concerned that factors outside of domestic demand are primarily responsible for inflationary pressures in Japan. However, retail demand right now might ease some concerns.
Moreover, the dismal labor market statistics are the driving force behind the Japanese Yen's recent decline. Compared to the consensus and the previous announcement of 2.4%, the unemployment rate has jumped to 2.6%.
Safe haven USD/JPY rises as Japan's rising unemployment rate demands the continuation of the BoJ's loose policy.
USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
132.52 133.57
131.84 133.94
131.46 134.62
Pivot Point: 132.89
USD/JPY – Technical Outlook
The USD/JPY pair has been exhibiting tight sideways fluctuations since yesterday, hovering around the 133.30 level and maintaining its position below it for now. This sustains the likelihood of resuming the primary bearish trend, with initial targets at 131.60 followed by 130.40.
The price requires a negative impetus to help it achieve the anticipated decline. Notably, breaking below 132.00 would facilitate reaching the desired targets, while surpassing 133.30 would introduce a positive factor, pushing the price towards an intraday and short-term increase.
Today's expected trading range is between 131.90 support and 133.50 resistance.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at 1,982.13, up by 0.09% in 24 hours. Gold prices sharply gained after the weak final GDP report put pressure on the US dollar and hopes of interest rate cuts boosted demand for the safe-haven metal.
Fed to Pause Rate Hikes
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, joins three other Fed officials in supporting more rate increases on Thursday, emphasizing the need to control inflation concerns. Nevertheless, mixed US data raises doubts about the Fed's hawkish tone.
According to US statistics released on Thursday, the number of jobless claims increased last week to 198K from the predicted 196K, signaling a sluggish job market. Moreover, Q4 GDP growth was somewhat lower at 2.6% compared to prior projections of 2.7%. The data points to the need for a softer Fed stance.
Furthermore, according to the Fedwatch tool from CME Group, expectations for a Fed pause or a 25 bps rate increase in May are nearly evenly split, with 47.9% of respondents favoring no change in interest rates. The US Dollar Basket (DXY), a measure of USD performance, decreased to 102.17 as markets continued to reduce the likelihood of more rate increases.
XAU/USD has been boosted by a lower US Dollar and forecasts for a decline in interest rates.
Looking ahead, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the February reading of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), will be revealed on Friday and might influence the price of gold.
Easing Banking Crisis Fears
The banking system remains sound, despite being under strain, according to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who made the statement on Thursday. It has helped to push back problems in the banking industry.
Nevertheless, the mixed data and risk-on mood fail to support US 10-year Treasury bond rates, which stay pressured above 3.55%, while the two-year counterpart pushes higher around 4.13%, aiming for the first weekly gain in four weeks.
As a result, the market's mixed data and generally upbeat sentiment, with lessening concerns about bank upheaval, have pushed the XAU/USD price to remain stronger.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1962 1991
1944 2002
1933 2020
Pivot Point: 1973
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Gold price's recent movements have been constrained within a symmetrical triangle visible on the chart. A break above the $1,992.00 resistance would offer a positive boost, reinforcing expectations for the continuation of the primary bullish trend. The targets for this trend begin at $2,000.00 and extend to $2,040.00 once the previous level is surpassed.
Hence, the bullish trend scenario remains in play, backed by the EMA50 that supports the price from below. It is important to note that breaking below $1,962.50 would halt the bullish wave, causing the price to experience a new bearish correction. The anticipated trading range for today lies between the $1,965.00 support and $2,000.00 resistance.
Related:
* USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 31, 2023
BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The BTC/USD is currently trading at 28,410.0, experiencing a 4.20% increase within the last 24 hours. Investors have set aside concerns regarding the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's lawsuit against Binance, helping Bitcoin climb back above the $28,000 mark.
Investors Disregard Regulatory Concerns
On March 27, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against Binance, CEO Changpeng Zhao, and Compliance Head Samuel Lim, alleging that the defendants had violated laws governing commodity trading.
The complaint, submitted to the Illinois District Court, accused them of several violations, including illegally soliciting US customers, failing to register their exchange platform, not having a head office, and failing to prevent and identify money laundering and terrorist financing.
Following the announcement, the platform experienced massive withdrawals, with clients withdrawing over $2 billion. However, Changpeng Zhao expressed disappointment and surprise, stating that Binance had been cooperating closely with the agency for the past two years. He disagreed with the claims, citing an incomplete recounting of facts.
Initially, Bitcoin's value dropped following the news of the CFTC filing. Nonetheless, the BTC/USD saw a significant increase on Wednesday as traders were willing to take on some risk and move past their initial concerns about US regulators cracking down on industry giants.
Mercado Libre Extends Crypto Trading to Chile
MercadoLibre, the top e-commerce platform in Latin America, recently announced that its customers in Chile can now trade Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Chilean users can buy, sell, and store Bitcoin through the company's MercadoPago wallet app.
In a LinkedIn statement on March 29, Osvaldo Gimenez, President of MercadoLibre, revealed that MercadoPago is now the first digital account in the country to facilitate such transactions.
The announcement highlights that the initiative aims to decrease Chile's barriers to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency usage. This feature simplifies the process of using Bitcoin, particularly for less experienced users. The approach is anticipated to be highly user-friendly, requiring minimal effort to operate and allowing even beginners to execute their first transaction.
The adoption of cryptocurrencies represents another step forward in the development and expansion of financial services access in Chile and Latin America. As a result, this move positively impacts the BTC/USD value.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
27516 28908
26689 29473
26124 30300
Pivot Point: 28081
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
The Bitcoin price has risen above the $28,000 resistance, with BTC bulls aiming for a further surge beyond the $28,500 and $28,800 resistance levels. Bitcoin has experienced a significant increase, surpassing the $27,500 resistance and gaining momentum to break through multiple barriers near the $27,800 and $28,000 levels.
On the upside, the immediate resistance lies around the $28,500 level, with the following significant resistance close to the $28,800 zone.
A successful close above the triangle resistance and $28,800 could propel the price even higher. In this scenario, the price may ascend toward the $29,500 resistance, with further gains potentially leading to a test of the $30,000 resistance zone.
However, a new decline could ensue if the Bitcoin price fails to surpass the $28,500 resistance. Immediate downside support is located near the $28,200 zone or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward movement from the $26,600 swing low to the $28,629 high.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 4,027.81, up 1.42% in the last 24 hours. The Micron-fueled spike in technology and new indications of lessening concerns in the banking industry pushed the index higher.
Micron-led Rally in Tech
Micron Technology Inc (MU) reported results for the second quarter of fiscal 2023, which ended on March 2, 2023, on Tuesday. According to a statement released by the company on Tuesday, sales might reach $3.9 billion in the third quarter of this fiscal year.
This contrasts with the $3.75 billion average expert projection. Moreover, the corporation announced additional layoffs. Micron climbed as the projection surprise encouraged optimism that the worst was over.
After the chipmaker's better-than-anticipated sales outlook and encouraging remarks about a bottom in chip demand offset quarterly results that fell short of forecasts, the company's shares increased by over 7%, driving chip stocks and the broader tech sector higher.
Furthermore, interest in other semiconductor companies was raised, with Intel Corporation (INTC), Lam Research Corp (LRCX), and Marvell Technologies (MRVL) all gaining strength.
The risk sentiment helped financial and technology firms. As a result, the S&P 500 Index increased as optimistic outlooks from businesses like Micron Technology and others eased some concerns about the economic situation.
Banking Concerns Eased
The selling of assets by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Monday helped stock investors' risk appetites and reduced market tensions. Furthermore, market concerns regarding pressure in the US banking sector have subsided due to significant actions taken by US authorities and the Fed to strengthen the financial system and restore trust.
Shares of SVB Financial Group (SIVBQ) are trading at 0.97, up 142.50% in the last 24 hours. Signature Bank (SBNY) shares increased 84.62% to 0.24. After investors gained hope from the banking sector's increased stability, the S&P 500 Index rose.
Fed to Hike Rates
As uncertainty persisted and bond investors assessed the effect of rising interest rates on economic development, the yield on US 10-Year Bonds rose modestly to 3.573%. The dollar also rebounded as bets that the Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates increased once more. At 102.75, the dollar index (DXY) increased by 0.11%.
Looking ahead on Friday, experts predict the core PCE to rise by 0.4% m-o-m in February after increasing by 0.6% at the beginning of the year. The annual rate will remain at 4.7%, indicating that the underlying trend hasn't moved much.
A positive surprise may cause investors to increase their bets on a 25bp FOMC hike at the May meeting, even if this option has been discounted and may not cause much volatility. It might cause the S&P 500 to decline.
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
3955 3983
3940 3995
3928 4011
Pivot Point: 3967
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
At present, the S&P 500 is trading at 4,025 with a solid support level at 3,920. However, there may be considerable resistance due to the double-top pattern at 4,039. If it surpasses this level, the SPX price might be propelled towards the next resistance level of 4,160.
Conversely, if the SPX falls below 3,920, it could encounter intense selling pressure and potentially decline to the 3,840 and 3,750 levels. Technical indicators like MACD and RSI are both within the buying zone, signifying a strong bullish inclination.
Investors will likely concentrate on the 3,900 level, and if the candle closes above it, the SPX price could experience an upward trend today.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0830, down by 0.12% in 24 hours. The currency pair declines while traders wait for US and German inflation statistics.
Eyes on Fed's Preferred Measure of Inflation
On the American front, the better-than-expected report revealed that the housing market was still recovering. The Pending House Sales data, released on Wednesday, attracted the interest of traders since it showed that, in February, Pending Home Sales climbed by 0.8% month over month, as opposed to the analyst consensus of -2.3%.
Unexpectedly, US pending home sales increased for a third consecutive month in February, indicating that the housing market may rebound after a challenging year. As a result, it helped the Dollar Index (DXY), which is currently up 0.11% at 102.75. The EUR/USD currency pair came under pressure as the dollar strengthened.
Furthermore, in light of the Fed's policy decision from last week, the market will be closely monitoring the release of inflation statistics to see if the Fed will continue raising rates or whether it will take a break. The Core PCE price index, which is coming Friday, is the Fed's favored gauge of inflation. Therefore, the market won't take any unexpected findings lightly.
ECB to Hike Rates
The European Central Bank (ECB) increased interest rates by 50 basis points a few weeks ago. However, despite recent signals from several policymakers at the central bank, it made no reassurance on future rates. The ECB is closely monitoring the banks in the Eurozone for signs of financial instability, but it has not changed its commitment to combating inflation.
Meanwhile, as the bank turmoil has eased, ECB policymakers have stressed the necessity for higher interest rates. According to Philip Lane, the ECB's chief economist, more rate rises will be required under the base-case scenario to ensure that inflation falls below 2%.
On Wednesday, the German GfK Consumer Confidence survey was released, revealing that, in contrast to the expert estimate of -29.2, Consumer Confidence increased from -30.6 to -29.5. The report showed that German consumers were still under pressure and fell short of analyst expectations. Nevertheless, given that the ECB is still committed to fighting inflation, the data should not significantly influence its decision-making.
Furthermore, it is essential to keep an eye on the German CPI since it will provide a clear indication of what to expect for the Eurozone CPI, which is coming on Friday, as well as the ECB's next move. Markets anticipate a 25 basis point rate increase at the upcoming meeting on May 4. The expectation of more rate increases by the ECB supports the steady EUR/USD exchange rate.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0817 1.0870
1.0791 1.0897
1.0763 1.0924
Pivot Point: 1.0844
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair has been experiencing limited fluctuations since yesterday, hovering around the 1.0840 level. It's worth noting that the stochastic indicator has shed its negative momentum and is now approaching oversold territory, while the EMA50 continues to offer positive support to the price.
As a result, the prospects for a resumption of the anticipated bullish trend in the near term remain strong, with the next primary target situated at 1.1032. It's important to keep in mind that maintaining a level above 1.0745 is crucial to achieve the suggested targets, and surpassing 1.0870 would facilitate the move towards the anticipated target.
For today, the projected trading range is between 1.0770 as support and 1.0935 as resistance.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
Related:
* S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 30, 2023
NASDAQ Price Analysis – March 29, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) fell 0.49% at 12,610.57. The NASDAQ is under significant pressure as Treasury rates continue to rise.
Treasury Rates Rise
According to a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday, confidence in the US economy rose in March despite the unanticipated turmoil in the banking industry. The business group's Consumer Confidence Index increased to 104.2 in March from an earlier upwardly revised reading of 103.4.
The Federal Reserve is under increased pressure because of the surge to avoid price increases. Rising rates make future earnings less attractive, such as those promised by growing corporations. Therefore, traders revised their holdings in Treasuries and helped the front-end selloff as concerns about the possibility of growth in the financial upheaval eased.
The 2-year yield rose to 4.08%. The 10-year yield increased to 3.57%. The dollar strength gauge, the Dollar Index (DXY), increased to 102.57, up 0.14%.
As a result, the NASDAQ retreated as investors concentrated on increasing Treasury rates, which was negative for tech stocks sensitive to yield. On the economic front, traders are anticipating the release of the most recent pending home sales data on Wednesday.
Regulators Facing Questions
Meanwhile, concerns over the crisis have subsided among US regional banks due in part to authorities' attempts to ease the issues. Investors' concern that increased rates may cause the economy to enter a recession resurfaced.
However, after a contentious hearing on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee, bank stocks declined, exerting pressure on NASDAQ. The three leading regulators supported stricter regulations for banks with over $100 billion in assets.
Moreover, Michael Barr, the Vice Chair of Supervision at the Federal Reserve, will speak in front of the House Financial Services Committee in Washington on Wednesday morning. The hearing's topic will be how federal regulators have responded to previous bank collapses.
NASDAQ Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
12601 12792
12530 12911
12411 12982
Pivot Point: 12720
NASDAQ – Technical Outlook
The leading stock market index, NASDAQ, is trading with a bullish bias around the 12,683 level. The NASDAQ index has gained immediate support at the 12,500 level, which has been extended by an upward trend line. Closing a bullish engulfing candle above this particular level supports the odds of a bullish reversal.
On the upside, the immediate resistance prevails around the 12,800 level, and a bullish break above this particular level can expose the NASDAQ price towards 12,950.
On the lower side, a bearish breakout of the 12,500 level has the potential to break lower towards 12,400 or 12,200 levels. Meanwhile, the leading technical indicators such as RSI and MACD are now entering the buy zone, supporting the bullish momentum.
Therefore, let's keep an eye on the 12,600 level, as this may support NASDAQ prices.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 29, 2023
GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 29, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2323, down by 0.14% in 24 hours. The currency pair fell, ending a two-day upswing, as consumer confidence in the US increased despite banking fears.
Customers Dismiss Banking Concerns
Consumer confidence in the United States increased in March, despite fears about banking crises and the consequences for deposits. It supports the idea of robust short-term consumer spending but significant challenges like increased borrowing prices and more difficult credit availability.
Tuesday's Conference Board data revealed that American consumer confidence increased in March. It rose from a previously revised 103.4 to 104.2 (consensus 101.0). Expectations increased from 70.4 to 73.0, while the existing situation index decreased from 153 to 151.1.
It is a surprise with the alarming news surrounding banks and worries about the security of savings within them. Instead, sentiment increased, attributed to decreased fuel prices, the ongoing labor market's strength, and growing wages.
Additionally, the recovery in sentiment suggests continued strong consumer spending growth in the foreseeable future, providing stable returns to the banking sector.
Traders adjusted their holdings in Treasuries and contributed to the front-end selloff as concerns about the possibility of an escalation of the financial upheaval subsided. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield managed above 3.57%.
The move gave the American dollar financial assistance, as the Dollar Index (DXY) increased 0.12% to 102.55. GBP/USD fell from its highest levels since early February as the dollar strengthened, ending a two-day upswing.
Bailey on Banking Concern
In the UK, the Pound Sterling held up well after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey left the door open for more policy tightening after raising rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% last week.
He said the local banking industry is robust and does not require special monetary treatment. Therefore, the central bank would keep concentrating on the battle against inflation. Hence, if there were indications of prolonged inflation, the BoE would welcome higher rates.
The UK economy's overall shop inflation, which had previously been reported at 8.4%, has now increased to 8.9%, the highest level in 18 years. If the BoE raises interest rates higher, it would support the GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.2291 1.2359
1.2251 1.2389
1.2222 1.2428
Pivot Point: 1.2320
GBP/USD – Technical Outlook
The GBPUSD pair exhibits an increasing bullish bias, gradually moving away from the intraday bullish channel's support line. It continues to receive positive support from the EMA50, and we believe the path is clear to reach our next primary target at 1.2440.
Stochastic's current negativity explains the slow bullish wave, as it awaits positive momentum to assist in the continued rise towards the mentioned target.
Maintaining a level above 1.2280 is crucial for the continuation of the bullish trend, as breaking it will subject the price to intraday negative pressure, leading to some bearish correction before resuming the upward movement.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.2260 support and 1.2420 resistance.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 29, 2023
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 29, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD is trading 0.05% lower at 1.0838. The rising consumer confidence in the United States and increased expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy resulted in a modest decline in the currency pair as risk appetite decreased, weighing the Euro.
US Customer Confidence
According to the Conference Board's report on Tuesday, despite the unexpected turmoil in the banking sector, confidence in the US economy increased in March. However, Americans expect inflation to stay high in the coming year.
The Consumer Confidence Index of the business group improved to 104.2 in March from a previously upwardly revised figure of 103.4. Expectations went up from 70.4 to 73.0, but the index measuring the state of the world dropped from 153 to 151.1.
According to a press release by The Conference Board, the expectations index has been below 80 for 12 of the past 13 months since February 2022. It indicates that a recession might occur within the next year.
According to Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, in a statement released Tuesday, consumers have not lost confidence and assume better days ahead despite recent news headwinds on the expanding bank crisis.
The surge also puts further pressure on the Federal Reserve, trying to keep prices from increasing. The Fed hiked its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points earlier this month, signaling that it will only raise rates one more time this year.
Traders adjusted their Treasury holdings. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield surpassed 3.57%. The Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar strength, rose by 0.1% to 102.58.
After a two-day rally, the EUR/USD dropped as the dollar gained strength. Looking ahead, traders are awaiting the release of key data such as Final GDP and Unemployment Claims on Thursday.
Bets on ECB rate hikes
On the European front, the publication of the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data on Thursday and the Eurozone data on Friday will be significant. The annual German HICP is expected to decline significantly from its previous release of 9.3% to 7.5%.
German inflation is predicted to drop, which would ease some of the tension on the European Central Bank (ECB). A 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming meeting on May 4 is widely expected. The EUR/USD remains steady, backed by anticipation of more rate rises by the ECB.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0813 1.0858
1.0786 1.0876
1.0768 1.0903
Pivot Point: 1.0831
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EURUSD pair managed to surpass the 1.0820 level and maintain its position above it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend on both the intraday and short-term basis. This opens the way for further gains, potentially reaching 1.1032.
The EMA50 continues to support the price from below, reinforcing the suggested positive scenario. We now await the positive momentum needed to sustain the bullish wave.
On the other hand, it is important to note that breaking 1.0805 will halt the current rise and put pressure on the price to test the key support base at 1.0745 before attempting any new positive moves.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0770 support and 1.0935 resistance.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
Related:
* GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 29, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 28, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) prices dropped by over 1% on Monday, even as the dollar weakened against most major currencies, due to improving risk appetite in the markets as banking concerns diminished.
The stock market experienced a strong rebound today, with the SPDR S&P fund for local banks increasing by 3%, and First Republic bank surging by 23%. Moreover, First Citizens bank agreed to acquire Silicon Valley Bank, taking on its entire loans and private deposits.
In Europe, concerns about Deutsche Bank eased as well, with the stock recovering and the cost of insuring its debts decreasing.
Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% as anticipated. This marks the ninth consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve since initiating the current policy tightening cycle in March 2022.
The Fed maintained that the US banking system is robust and stable while forecasting tighter credit conditions for individuals and corporations in the future, which would subsequently impact economic activities and inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it is unlikely for the Fed to reduce interest rates this year, but left the door open for another rate hike to bring inflation back to target levels.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1971 2010
1948 2026
1932 2049
Pivot Point: 1987
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The decline in gold prices halted at the $1,944.00 area, as it began to show positive movements and tested the key resistance level of $1,962.50. This hints at an attempt to recover and reestablish the primary bullish trend, with added support from technical indicators.
Due to the current contradiction between technical factors, we prefer to remain on the sidelines until we receive a clearer signal for the next trend direction.
It's worth noting that if the price continues to rise and breaches the $1,962.50 level, it could push gold to regain its main bullish trend and aim for the $2,000.00 area as the first positive target.
However, breaking below $1,950.00 is likely to be a negative factor, prompting further bearish correction with initial targets at $1,933.20 and potentially extending to $1,909.55 upon breaking the previous level.
Related:
* AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 28, 2023
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 28, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The AUD/USD pair surged after breaking the crucial 0.6660 resistance during the Asian session, now aiming for the 0.6700 round-level resistance. The US Dollar index (DXY) is facing turbulence as it extends its correction to around 102.60, with no signs of recovery.
S&P500 futures gained in the Asian session following a three-day winning streak, reflecting strong risk appetite among market participants due to restored household confidence.
Demand for US government bonds rebounded after a sell-off on Monday. Investors offloaded US government bonds following positive headlines about liquidity assistance to small US banks after three banks failed. Consequently, the 10-year US Treasury yields dropped to around 3.51%.
The US government announced emergency liquidity assistance for small lenders after the failure of three mid-sized banks led to a loss of confidence among households. The US Dollar has been impacted by the government's efforts to restore confidence in the banking sector.
The investment community is divided over the Federal Reserve's next move regarding interest rates. More than 50% of investors, according to the CME Fedwatch tool, prefer maintaining the status quo in the May monetary policy meeting due to tight credit conditions affecting US inflation.
Australian Retail Sales data showed a weaker-than-expected expansion of 0.2%, indicating the burden of higher inflation on households. This situation, however, is favorable for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which aims to soften stubborn inflation. The upcoming monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will be closely watched.
AUD/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
0.6678 0.6742
0.6640 0.6768
0.6614 0.6806
Pivot Point: 0.6704
AUD/USD – Technical Outlook
The AUDUSD pair oscillated around the 0.6665 level yesterday and started today with positive momentum, attempting to hold above this level.
This hints at the possibility of halting the bearish correction and moving towards a recovery in the upcoming sessions, opening the path for gains beginning with a target of 0.6780.
We anticipate positive trading in the upcoming sessions, but the price must establish a strong support base above 0.6665 to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.
Failing to do so would halt the positive scenario and push the price to resume the bearish correction with a next target of 0.6550.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – March 28, 2023