GOLD Price Analysis – April 10, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The gold price finished last Friday below the $2,010.00 level and opened today with a bearish gap, reaching the $1,990.00 level. However, the price has since covered this gap, indicating an attempt to resume its primary bullish trend, which is moving within the upward channel displayed on the chart.
As a result, we believe there is a strong possibility of positive trading activity in the upcoming sessions. To enhance the likelihood of progressing toward the $2,040.00 level as the next optimistic target, the price needs to surpass the $2,010.00 level.
It is important to note that a bearish bounce and a break below the $1,980.00 level could force the price off its bullish course, initiating a short-term bearish correction.
Today's anticipated trading range is between the $1,990.00 support level and the $2,020.00 resistance level.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Limit $1999
Stop Loss – $2005
Take Profit – $1990
Take Profit 2 - $1984
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.50 (With first TP)
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$375/ -$250 (With first TP)
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37.5/ -$25 (With first TP)
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 10, 2023
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 07, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 4,105.02, up by 0.36% in 24 hours. The S&P 500 increased after reducing losses, dismissing economic worries amid additional signs that the labor market is cooling ahead of the crucial monthly employment data expected on Friday.
Investors awaiting upcoming jobs data
According to economic figures coming out of the US that indicate slowing economic development, the services sector expanded at a more moderate rate in March as demand cooled, while US job openings fell to their lowest level in almost two years in February.
Additionally, initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 18,000 from 246,000 in the week ended April 1, surpassing experts' projections of 200,000 claims, fueling concerns that the labor market is cooling.
After this data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), currently trading at 101.95, is up 0.13%, holding onto its daily recovery gains. The US dollar increased slightly but is still close to two-month lows as a slowing economy suggests a pause in the US Federal Reserve's cycle of rate hikes.
Alphabet shares rose on Thursday as investors, concerned about a weakening economy, turned their attention to upcoming jobs data. It helped major US stock indexes conclude the day higher.
Investor attention is now on the more comprehensive data on non-farm payrolls, anticipated to have grown by 239,000 in March, down from the 311,000 jobs gained in the previous month. The report is due later in the day, which is Good Friday in the US, and the stock market is closed.
Stock News
A US court rejected the theater operator's appeal to withdraw a status quo order required for its proposal to convert preferred shares into common shares, sending AMC Entertainment (AMC) Holdings Inc. up 21%.
Investors expressed worries about a probable economic slump as Caterpillar (CAT), seen as the gauge for the industrial sector, dropped more than 2%, increasing its loss over the last three days to 9%.
In terms of earnings, Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) revealed fourth-quarter figures that beat Wall Street forecasts. However, the apparel company repeated its guidance among concerns over the outlook for the economy. Following the garment maker's announcement of a decline in quarterly earnings, the stocks fell 16%.
Daily Technical Levels:
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
4075 4103
4060 4115
4048 4130
Pivot Point: 4088
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
The S&P 500 is currently experiencing strong positive momentum above 4,100, and has solid support at 4,030. However, there is a significant obstacle at 4,175 due to a double-top pattern which may cause resistance.
If the index manages to break past this level, it could move toward the next resistance at 4,170. Conversely, if the SPX falls below 4,040, there could be considerable selling pressure, leading to a decline towards the 3,920 and 3,840 levels.
Technical indicators, specifically MACD and RSI, both suggest a strong bullish trend. Investors are expected to focus on the 4,040 level, and if the candle closes above it, there is a good chance that the SPX will trend upwards today.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 07, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
In European trading, gold prices dropped for the first time in four days, moving away from 13-month highs due to profit-taking and investor reluctance to establish new positions ahead of the US payrolls data release.
The US payrolls report, set to be released tomorrow, will reveal the number of new jobs added to the economy, as well as updates on unemployment and wage statistics.
Gold prices slipped by 0.6% to $2,008 an ounce, after a 0.1% increase yesterday, reaching a 13-month peak at $2,032. This week, gold prices have risen by over 0.2% in response to the unexpected OPEC+ production cut and weak US data.
Recent US figures indicated that fewer jobs were added in the private sector than anticipated in March, while the services sector also experienced a slowdown during the same month.
US job opportunities in February plummeted to a two-year low, while manufacturing fell to a three-year low, signaling a possible recession in Q1.
US Interest Rates
Following the data release, the probability of no policy changes at the Federal Reserve's May meeting is at 60%, while the likelihood of a 0.25% rate hike has dropped to 40%.
Investors now anticipate a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a final interest rate of 4.25% in December.
The Jobs Data
Investors are now awaiting the critical US payrolls data on Friday to assess the economy's health and determine the Federal Reserve's next steps.
Fed Comments
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that it is still too early to determine whether the Fed will increase interest rates in May. Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust saw a 0.87-ton increase yesterday, reaching a total of 930.91 tons, the highest level since October 2022.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Gold prices approached our anticipated target of $2,040 and experienced a bearish bounce, testing the support level formed above $2,010 while maintaining stability above it. Notably, the stochastic oscillator is shedding its negative momentum, and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) continues to offer positive support to the price.
Consequently, we expect positive trading today as the primary bullish trend resumes within the upward channel depicted on the chart. It is important to note that our targets start at $2,040 and extend to $2,065. However, a break below $2,010 could pressure the price to test the bullish channel's support line around $1,975 before any new attempts to rise.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2023
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD experienced a decline against the dollar in European trading for the second consecutive day after data revealed a significant slowdown in European inflation in March, diminishing the likelihood of a substantial interest rate increase by the ECB in March.
The dollar continues to strengthen, supported by optimistic predictions of a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate hike in May, marking the third consecutive increase.
EUR/USD dropped 0.5% to 1.0788, reaching a session-high of 1.0844, following a 0.6% loss on Friday, which was the first decline in five days due to weaker European inflation data.
The euro appreciated over 1.3% against the dollar in the first quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of gains, driven by the ECB's actions.
The European Central Bank persistently worked to counteract record inflation in the eurozone by raising interest rates more rapidly than the Federal Reserve.
European Inflation
Preliminary data indicated that consumer prices in the eurozone increased by 6.9% in March, the slowest pace since February 2022 and the most significant inflation drop to date, down from 8.5% in the previous reading and below the 7.1% estimate.
Such figures eased inflationary pressures on ECB policymakers and negatively impacted predictions for aggressive ECB policy tightening in the coming months. On Monday, the dollar index climbed 0.45% against a basket of major competitors.
The dollar is profiting from its status as an alternative investment, with investors now concentrating on the Federal Reserve's forthcoming policy actions to curb inflation. Expectations for a 0.25% rate hike by the Fed in May stand at 61%, while the odds of no policy changes remain at 39%.
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EURUSD pair has been experiencing sluggish trading activity since the morning, with the stochastic indicator entering oversold territories. This is anticipated to encourage the price to reinitiate the upward trend in forthcoming sessions, with the next target being set at 1.1032.
The ascending channel continues to structure the proposed bullish wave, which will persist as long as the 1.0850 level is not breached and remains below it.
Today's anticipated trading range lies between a 1.0850 support level and a 1.1000 resistance level.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – April 07, 2023
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 06, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
As the market anticipates Australian foreign trade data for February and China's Caixin Services PMI for March early on Thursday, the AUD/USD is picking up bids to counterbalance recent losses around 0.6720.
Despite weaker US data, the Australian dollar declined over the past two days, with bulls being restrained even as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe made efforts to revive them.
Governor Philip Lowe of the RBA took action to appease hawks on Wednesday, following the central bank's delay in raising interest rates. The policymaker did not consider a rate cut and indicated that the balance of risks leans towards further rate hikes.
US-China Tensions Over Taiwan Add Pressure to AUD/USD Price
However, the US Dollar managed to recover and disregard the negative data amid recession concerns. Notably, the ADP Employment Change for March fell to 145K, missing the 200K forecast and down from a revised 261K prior.
Both the final S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs for March displayed disappointing results, with the former declining to 52.3 from 53.3 preliminary estimates, and the latter dropping to 52.6 from 53.8 initial projections.
More importantly, the US ISM Services PMI for the same month heightened pessimism as it plunged to 51.2, well below the 54.5 forecast and 55.1 prior.
Weaker US Statistics Ignored as US Dollar Regains Strength
The recent US-China dispute over Taiwan also exerts pressure on the AUD/USD price due to the close ties between Australia and China, in addition to the US Dollar's rally and RBA meetings and actions.
Escalating US Recession Concerns Impact Market Mood and Treasury Bond Yields
In this context, US recession concerns have intensified, negatively impacting market sentiment. The gloomy Wall Street performance also dragged down US Treasury bond yields. However, thanks to the negative sentiment, the US Dollar Index (DXY) managed to bounce back from a two-month low and halt a two-day downtrend.
AUD/USD – Technical Outlook
The AUDUSD pair's decline halted near the 0.6665 level, and the price has started to recover in an attempt to resume the intraday bullish wave, with an initial target of 0.6780.
The EMA50 is attempting to prevent the price from incurring further losses, supporting the continuation of the projected positive scenario. However, it is important to note that breaking through the 0.6665 level could halt the anticipated rise and push the price to visit the next correctional level at 0.6550.
Today's likely trading range is between 0.6650 support and 0.6770 resistance.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – April 06, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 06, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold reached its highest level in a year on Wednesday, as recent US economic data fanned concerns about a downturn and raised anticipation that the Federal Reserve may ease up on rate hikes.
Gold Reaches Highest Level in a Year Amid Economic Slowdown Concerns
Spot gold was unchanged at $2,020.30 per ounce at 01:46 p.m. EDT (1746 GMT), after reaching a high of $2,031.89 in March 2022. Gold futures in the United States finished 0.1% lower at $2,035.60. After a significant decline in US job vacancies in February, gold jumped beyond the important $2,000 level on Tuesday, adding to gains earlier this week following an OPEC-led spike in oil that spurred fears of another inflation explosion.
Weaker US Data Boosts Bets on Federal Reserve Easing Rate Hikes
As financial tensions intensify, many anticipate gold will continue to surge above $2,000 per ounce. Gold prices will reach an all-time high and surpass $2,200 by the end of March 2024, according to UBS.
Analysts Predict Continued Growth for Gold Prices Above $2,000
Private payroll growth was worse than predicted in March, raising concerns about the economic implications of the Fed's quick rate hikes. Bullion benefited from a weaker currency as well as a drop in US yields.
Weaker Currency and Falling US Yields Support Bullion
"The market has shown some risk aversion as a result of yesterday's negative economic data, which is positive for safe-haven gold," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Traders believe that the possibility of a stop in US rate hikes in May is excellent news for zero-yield gold and its status as the go-to inflation hedge.
Market Awaits US Nonfarm Payroll Figures on Friday for Further Clues
Although a swift turnaround of Fed policy is improbable, Carsten Menke of Julius Baer's Next Generation indicated in a note that a US recession may still be avoided. Analysts anticipate that the market's reaction to the US nonfarm payroll numbers on Friday will be delayed until the following week due to the Good Friday holiday.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
While maintaining its steadiness, the gold price approached our predicted target of $2,040.00 and witnessed a bearish bounce, testing the support base built above $2,010.00. Notably, the stochastic indicator is losing its bearish momentum, while the EMA50 continues to provide price support.
As a result, we anticipate favorable trading today, resuming the primary bullish trend within the chart's bullish channel. It's vital to remember that our goals range from $2,040.00 to $2,065.00. If the price falls below $2,010.00, it will be forced to test the bullish channel's support line at $1,975.00 before trying another advance.
The projected trading range for today is $2,005.00 support to $2,040.00 resistance.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – April 06, 2023
BTC/USD Price Analysis – April 06, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, has experienced a rollercoaster ride since the beginning of 2023, surging over 70% in the first quarter and outperforming assets like physical gold and US stocks. However, the upward trend appears to be losing momentum, as BTC recently fell more than 2% to $28,069.54, while Ethereum also dropped 1.15% to $1,890.98.
The ratio between Bitcoin's (BTC) daily trading volumes in spot and derivatives markets has dropped to an 11-month low, indicating renewed speculative activity in the crypto market. The ratio has plunged nearly 80% in three months, hitting a low of 0.117, last seen on May 16, 2022, according to data from South Korea-based blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
This decline, which coincides with a 70% year-to-date increase in Bitcoin's price, suggests a heightened risk appetite in the crypto market and potential for price volatility.
The decrease has been particularly sharp since Bitcoin first encountered significant resistance above $28,500 on March 21, indicating that speculators have recently entered the Bitcoin market at a faster pace compared to retail investors and long-term holders.
Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport, noted that the theory of the 2023 crypto rally being driven by diversification away from the U.S. dollar and associated bank credit risk may be on shaky ground if the rally was purely driven by an increase in leverage, as evidenced by the falling volume ratio.
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
Bitcoin's price attempted a crucial upside break above the $28,800 resistance area but struggled to gain momentum above this level, leading to a downward reaction.
The price fell below $28,400 and $28,200 levels as bears pushed it below the $28,000 support. It reached a low of $27,813 before bulls stepped in. Bitcoin's price is currently consolidating above the recent low and trading close to $28,000.
The next significant resistance is around the $28,300 zone, close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward movement from the $28,792 swing high to the $27,812 low. If Bitcoin fails to surpass the $28,400 resistance, it could experience another decline. Immediate downside support is near the $27,800 zone.
The following major support is close to the $27,550 zone or the recent low. A downward break below the $27,550 support could send the price towards the $26,500 support area.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – April 06, 2023
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways after rising above 1.0970 in the early Asian session. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment and ISM Services PMI data, which could affect the currency pair's movement.
US Dollar Index refreshes monthly low as Fed's status-quo decision looms
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 ended the day with losses as investors became cautious before the US economic reports, leading to a decrease in risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) also hit a monthly low near 101.46 as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining the status quo for its May monetary policy meeting.
The CME Fedwatch tool indicates a 60% likelihood of the Fed's interest rate decision remaining unchanged. The Fed is expected to focus on contracting manufacturing activities to prevent the US economy from slipping into a recession. The release of US economic data on Wednesday is expected to provide more clarity.
Weak job openings data indicates US labor market is cooling
According to consensus, the US economy added 200,000 new jobs in March, which is lower than the previous addition of 242,000. However, if the US labor market continues to remain tight, there is still hope for one more rate hike from the Fed. On Tuesday, data revealed lower talent acquisition requests, dropping to 9.9 million compared to January's 10.5 million and market expectations of 10.4 million.
US ISM Services PMI expected to contract, keeping investors busy
Aside from US Employment data, investors are also keeping an eye on the US ISM Services PMI. It is expected to decline from 55.1 to 54.5, and the New Orders Index, which reflects forward-demand, is expected to drop from 62.6 to 57.6.
In the Eurozone, ECB policymakers are pleased as consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 4.6% in February from January's 4.9%. However, the data does not include the recent increase in oil prices, which could affect the outlook. ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to continue hiking rates.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0843 1.0946
1.0782 1.0988
1.0740 1.1049
Pivot Point: 1.0885
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair has surged and crossed the resistance level of 1.0900 and is currently trading above it, indicating a positive trend for the day. There is an expectation for further upward movement towards the next target of 1.1032.
The EMA50 is supportive of the bullish trend, and it is expected that the price will gain positive momentum to reach the target.
The bullish trend is likely to continue in the upcoming sessions unless there is a break below 1.0880 and if it stays below that level. The trading range for the day is expected to be between the support level of 1.0840 and the resistance level of 1.0990.
For more market insights, visit LHFX.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Early Wednesday, AUD/USD bears took a break around mid-0.6700s, as traders awaited a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe. The RBA paused its rate hike trajectory and satisfied sellers the previous day by maintaining its current monetary policy with a benchmark rate of 3.60%. The Australian central bank attributed the recent decline in Australian inflation and retail sales data to justify the status quo while also acknowledging the possibility of further monetary tightening.
Russian Foreign Minister Raises Fears of Escalating Moscow-Brussels Tussle
Meanwhile, the US dollar's reserve currency status has been challenged, contributing to a risk-on mood in the market. Bloomberg reported that the Chinese yuan surpassed the US dollar as the most traded currency in Russia in February, with the gap continuing to widen in March. Brazil and China also agreed to pause the US dollar's usage as an intermediary in trade transactions. Furthermore, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov raised concerns about escalating tensions with Brussels and indicated that Moscow would deal with Europe more harshly if necessary.
US-China Tension Continues as Beijing Criticizes Meeting Between Taiwan President and US House Speaker
The ongoing US-China tension remains a topic of discussion as well. On Tuesday, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen met with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, which drew criticism from China's Consulate General in Los Angeles.
AUD/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
0.6678 0.6742
0.6640 0.6768
0.6614 0.6806
Pivot Point: 0.6704
AUD/USD – Technical Outlook
The AUDUSD pair encounters strong resistance at the 0.6780 level, currently displaying a bearish bias due to the negative impact of stochastic indicators, while awaiting positive momentum to help the price break through the aforementioned level and confirm its trajectory towards 0.6920 as the next target.
Consequently, our bullish outlook for today is contingent upon the price remaining stable above 0.6735, as breaking this level will exert pressure on the price to test the 0.6665 region before attempting another rise.
Today's expected trading range lies between the 0.6720 support and 0.6850 resistance levels.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices soared to their highest in over a year on Tuesday, finally breaking through and maintaining a position above the $2,000 mark as the US Dollar and bond yields fell. The weaker greenback and additional US data contributed to the yellow metal's rally from a compressed formation. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $2,020, up 1.8%.
US Job Openings Drop to Lowest Level in Nearly Two Years
US job openings in February dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years, accompanied by a continued decline in factory orders. Job openings, an indicator of labor demand, fell from 632,000 to 9.9 million at the end of February, the lowest since May 2021, according to the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. "The largest decline in openings was in professional and business services, followed by healthcare. Accommodation and food services saw openings fall back to mid-2022 levels. Construction job openings increased despite the sector's interest rate sensitivity," analysts at ANZ Bank stated.
Factory Orders Decline for Second Consecutive Month
US factory orders declined for a second consecutive month, down 0.7% in February following a 2.1% drop in January and a 1.7% increase in December. This data comes after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported yesterday that its Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest since May 2020, from 47.7 in February.
Persistent Inflation Concerns Expected to Fuel Hawkish Fed Sentiment
In part, the data echoed last week's PCE data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, which had mixed results. While both headline and core figures were slightly lower than anticipated, the super core accelerated for a second consecutive month to 4.63% YoY, its highest level since October. "This is not the direction the Fed desires, and we expect the hawkish tilt in Fed comments to persist," analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1959 2000
1934 2016
1918 2040
Pivot Point: 1975
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price experienced a significant rally, surpassing our initial target of $2,000.00 and breaking through the recently recorded high of $2,009.78, confirming the continuation of the dominant bullish trend for upcoming sessions.
Our next target is set at $2,040.00, as we anticipate further increases in the short term and intraday basis.
It's important to note that maintaining a position above $2,009.78 is a prerequisite for sustaining the bullish trend.
Related:
* AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023