Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have remained steady at $3,327 as of Friday, following a retreat from an all-time high of $3,358. The market has seen some profit-taking as investors headed into a long Easter weekend, but the yellow metal continues to hold its ground amid rising global uncertainties.
The combination of geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance is playing a crucial role in maintaining gold’s current price levels.
Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand Support Gold
Gold has traditionally been considered a safe-haven asset, and with ongoing global tensions, it has once again become a popular choice for investors. Uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports and the potential for further escalation in geopolitical conflicts have driven demand for gold.
As trade tensions simmer and recession fears mount, investors are increasingly looking to safeguard their portfolios, ensuring continued support for the precious metal.
Lukman Otunuga, a senior research analyst at FXTM, highlighted that gold remains heavily supported by "a broadly weaker dollar, uncertainty around tariff announcements, and fears about a global recession."
These factors provide a solid foundation for gold’s steady performance, despite the lack of significant price momentum.
Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance Weighs on Gold Price
On the other side of the equation, the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish tone is creating headwinds for gold. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks reduced the likelihood of an interest rate cut in June, which has lifted the US Dollar and, in turn, applied pressure on gold.
Powell noted that the US economy’s weaknesses and the persistence of high inflation could lead to stagflationary concerns, increasing the complexity of the Fed’s policy decisions.
The market had initially priced in expectations of rate cuts, but Powell’s comments have cast doubt on this, as the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term diminishes. This shift in sentiment is likely to impact gold’s price trajectory as the stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers.
US Economic Data Shows Mixed Signals
Recent US economic data also adds to the uncertainty. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 dropped to 215K, lower than expectations and the previous week's figure of 224K, signaling strength in the labor market.
However, Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 41K to 1.885 million, suggesting some underlying weakness. Meanwhile, US Building Permits increased by 1.6% to 1.482 million in March, exceeding expectations, although Housing Starts saw a decline.
Despite mixed economic signals, money market traders are pricing in nearly 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
This pricing suggests that markets are still factoring in the possibility of a rate-cutting cycle in the medium term, which could offer some support for gold.
Looking forward, the geopolitical landscape, along with the Fed’s future actions, will likely remain key drivers of gold’s price. The ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and global recession fears continue to provide a robust safe-haven demand for gold.
At the same time, the Fed's hawkish tone could limit significant upside potential, especially if economic data continues to improve and rate cut expectations are pushed further out.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are recovering after finding support near the $3,283 level and are now attempting to reclaim ground above $3,317.
This recovery comes after a volatile session that saw a sharp dip followed by an equally strong rebound. Price action now sits just below the $3,355 resistance zone, where sellers previously rejected upside attempts.
From a technical standpoint, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,265, remains upward sloping and continues to offer medium-term support.
Fibonacci retracement levels show a confluence of potential demand zones between $3,274 (50%) and $3,254 (61.8%), reinforcing the validity of the recent rebound.
Momentum is also firming up. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from below 50 and now prints at 60.62, suggesting buyers are regaining control. If the price holds above $3,317, the next target comes in at $3,369 — a key Fibonacci extension level. A breakout beyond that could re-expose the recent high of $3,379.
On the downside, a drop below $3,283 would challenge the bullish structure and expose the $3,274–$3,254 range as the next area of interest for buyers.
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