EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 22, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at around 1.0770. Following a four-day increase, the pair has stabilized as buyers take a breather at the highest levels seen in five weeks on the day of the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
The March 2023 ZEW Index of Economic Sentiment poll for Germany in the Eurozone shows a significant decline. The Economic Sentiment Index dropped in March to 13.0 from 28.1 in January, falling short of the 14.9 market estimate. Meanwhile, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone also fell from 29.7 to 10.0, below the forecast of 23.2.
Despite the negative reports, market sentiment remains positive, with traders more focused on the banking industry's improvements. As a result, the bulls on the EUR/USD pair remain unaffected by the weak ZEW polls.
Eyes on FOMC Today
The US Existing House Sales for February surged by 14.5%, exceeding the predicted 0.0%. However, the positive effect on the US Dollar was dampened by the Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Business Outlook survey indicator, which fell to -12.8 in March.
Nevertheless, the focus was on the anticipated rate hike by the Fed and the ongoing banking issue, overshadowing the economic data. International markets experienced a risk-off sentiment in recent days but were relieved on Tuesday as US authorities' efforts to contain the financial crisis received market support.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's statement reduced worries about additional banking instability by stating that the Federal Reserve's new Bank Term Funding facility and discount window loans are supplying liquidity to the banking sector.
The FOMC meeting started its two-day discussion on Tuesday, with a 25 bps rate hike expected, along with demands for no change or even a rate cut. As a result, US 10-year yields traded lower before the meeting at 3.581%, and the DXY stood at 103.20. Despite the flat dollar, the EUR/USD is moving upwards.
The FOMC meeting will be the main focus on Wednesday, and traders must prepare for significant price fluctuations throughout the American session.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0717 1.0802
1.0668 1.0838
1.0632 1.0888
Pivot Point: 1.0753
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD pair has confirmed a break of the 1.0745 level by finishing the daily candlestick above it, providing further evidence of the intraday and short-term positive trend. Our next positive targets range from 1.0800 to 1.0900.
The price is being supported from below by the EMA50, however temporary sideways movements owing to stochastic negativity may occur before the projected bullish wave resumes. However, breaking the 1.0745 level will put an end to the positive scenario and send the price into a bearish correction, with targets starting at 1.0680 before any new attempt to advance.
Today's trading range is predicted to be between the support level of 1.0710 and the resistance level of 1.0870.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – March 22, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 22, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The price of gold, XAU/USD, is currently trading around 1,938.83. On Wednesday, gold prices traded within a narrow range after a sharp decline as the market awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Additionally, the demand for gold as a safe haven decreased as concerns over a financial crisis faded.
Easing Banking Fears
Comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen helped alleviate concerns about banking instability, as she highlighted the Federal Reserve's efforts to provide liquidity to the banking sector through measures such as the Bank Term Funding facility and discount window loans.
As a result of government assistance and easing concerns about a potential banking crisis in the US and Europe, gold prices experienced significant losses. While demand for safe-haven assets played a role in the recent surge of gold, the easing of banking concerns led to a sell-off in the metal.
With concerns about a banking crisis subsiding, markets have begun to anticipate a higher likelihood that the Fed will take a firm stance against inflation, potentially leading to an increase in interest rates. However, this could decrease risk appetite and have a negative impact on XAU/USD.
Fed Interest Rate Decision Ahead
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting has come into focus, and it may increase rates later in the day to temper hotter-than-usual inflation.
The Fed could vote in favor of an additional 25 basis point increase at its March 22 meeting, bringing US interest rates to a high of 5%. The Fed is also expected to call for more increases to help the US economy keep up with inflation, which rose at a yearly rate of 6% in February.
Over the past year, the Fed has already raised interest rates by 450 basis points and claims it will continue to rely heavily on rate hikes to bring inflation back to its long-term goal of 2% per year.
As the Fed meeting approaches, the US Dollar Index remains steady at 103.19, while the yield on US 10-Year Bonds has fallen to 3.598%.
Despite the DXY's lackluster performance, XAU/USD is struggling to hold steady. The Fed's commitment to continuing the fight against inflation is the reason behind this.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1922 1972
1904 2004
1872 2022
Pivot Point: 1954
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Yesterday, the price of gold went below $1960.00, signaling negative pressure that might lead to a bearish correction with a target of $1909.60.
Nonetheless, technical signs are indicating that a rebound is possible in the near future. The stochastic oscillator is clearly oversold, and the EMA50 is currently giving support from below.
As a result of the conflicting technical variables, it is better to stay out of the market until a clearer signal for the next trend arises. It is worth mentioning that a break of the $1933.20 support level will send the price farther lower, possibly to $1909.60 or even $1885.90. In contrast, breaking above the $1962.50 resistance level is critical to restarting the major bullish trend, with targets at $2000.00 and $2040.00.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 22, 2023
NASDAQ Price Analysis – March 21, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The NASDAQ 100 Index is currently trading at 12,562.61, marking a 0.34% increase in the past 24 hours. Traders have gained confidence in the potential resolution of the banking industry crisis, resulting in higher stock prices.
Credit Suisse Takeover
Financial authorities formulated a strategy for UBS to acquire Credit Suisse, aiming to restore trust in the banking system. UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse for $3.23 billion, and reports suggest that Switzerland is ready to lend the troubled banks up to $280 billion.
On Sunday, the Federal Reserve, the BoE, and the ECB, along with other major central banks, announced coordinated measures to increase liquidity in their existing US dollar swap deals. The objective was to make obtaining US dollar liquidity easier during times of crisis.
As fears of a global financial catastrophe due to a bank failure subsided, stock prices rose, improving risk appetite following UBS's deal to acquire Credit Suisse. However, the recent rally caused traders to continue taking profits, causing the NASDAQ index to fluctuate between gains and losses.
Fed Considers Interest Rate Hike
With earnings periods between the two quarters, this week does not have much economic data to offer. The main event this week is the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday, and the recent financial sector turbulence has increased the odds for interest rate hikes.
Traders and analysts are divided on whether the Federal Reserve will increase its benchmark policy rate. As of Tuesday, CME Group's FedWatch tool indicated a 75.3% chance of a 25 bps hike, while 24.7% believe Chairman Jerome Powell will have to halt his aggressive tightening campaign due to the growing bank failure.
As investors anticipate the FOMC meeting, the US 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Dollar index have slightly increased, with US10YT at 3.496% and DXY trading at 103.39.
Increasing market interest rates burden public and private firms, making business more challenging. Thus, the NASDAQ Index may decline. However, if the Fed halts its aggressive stance, stocks may rise further.
NASDAQ Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
12418 12647
12317 12775
12189 12876
Pivot Point: 12546
NASDAQ – Technical Outlook
The NASDAQ is currently trading with a slightly bullish bias, but it faces immediate resistance at the $12,700 level while the support level remains firm around $12,450. The next significant support for the NASDAQ is at $11,850, and a breach below this level may expose the index to the next support area of $11,600.
The MACD and RSI indicators are both in the selling zone, indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market. However, if the NASDAQ manages to surpass the $12,700 level, it could potentially target the $13,000 or $13,200 levels on the upside.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2023
BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The BTC/USD pair is currently trading at $27,908, reflecting a 2.37% increase over the last 24 hours. The weekend witnessed a surge in Bitcoin prices, with the cryptocurrency briefly touching $28,000, a level is last seen nine months ago. However, the prices fell back before the US Federal Reserve made its decision on interest rates.
Global Banks are in Chaos
The global banking sector faced additional pressure on Sunday when it was announced that Swiss banking giant UBS would acquire its financially troubled rival Credit Suisse in a $3.2 billion deal.
The Swiss government arranged the acquisition as part of ongoing efforts to control a crisis that threatens the banking industry worldwide.
Meanwhile, major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank, announced coordinated action on Sunday to boost liquidity in their existing US dollar swap deals.
The goal was to make it easier to obtain US dollar liquidity during times of crisis. However, several banking stocks plummeted in response.
In stark contrast, Bitcoin has continued to perform well, with its price increasing significantly following the collapse of several major banks earlier this month.
As a result of the banking turmoil, Bitcoin has been touted by enthusiasts as a safe-haven and digital gold. The BTC/USD has reached a nine-month high as investors consider concerns over the banking industry.
Investors Eye Fed Interest Rate Decision
Ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, investors were cautious, causing a loss of momentum for Bitcoin. Now that the Fed has announced a rate hike on Wednesday, investors are refocusing on inflation.
According to CME Group experts, there is a 73.8% probability that the Fed will increase interest rates by 25 basis points, while the probability of the Fed keeping rates steady due to concerns about bank viability is 26.2%.
The speculation of a rate hike by the Fed has also led to a rise in the US dollar. The US Dollar Index increased by 0.14% to 103.40, which has limited BTC/USD's growth.
Bitcoin Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
27082 28390
26452 29068
25774 29698
Pivot Point: 27760
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
Bitcoin's support remained above the $26,000 zone as the cryptocurrency attempted to break over the $28,000 and $28,400 barriers. The bears, though, didn't give up near $28,500, and the day's high was about $28,590. There has been a modest drop below the $28,000 barrier as the cryptocurrency consolidates its recent gains.
Bitcoin could have a correction to the downside if the $28,500 resistance level isn't breached, with first support in the $27,700 area and the trend line. The 100 hourly simple moving average and the trend line at $27,200 are the next key support levels.
The 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the up wave, from the $23,912 swing low to the $28,590 high, is at $26,250, which could be reached if losses continue. The $25,700 level represents the next major support level.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 17, 2023
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6685, having fallen by 0.49% in the last 24 hours. The currency pair experienced a drop following the release of the Reserve Bank's March meeting minutes, which revealed that officials were considering pausing interest rate increases in light of decreasing inflation and economic pressures.
RBA Minutes and AUD/USD
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting early on Tuesday morning. During the meeting, the board discussed the need to potentially pause the cycle of rate increases, but also noted that Australia's inflation remained high, the labor market was tight, and wage growth had picked up.
However, RBA officials only considered the possibility of a 25 basis point (bps) increase in rates, despite recent inflation in the Australian economy.
The minutes also revealed that policymakers were concerned about the potential for fluctuations in the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which slowed from its peak of 8.4% in December.
Despite this, the RBA has not yet reached its target range for inflation and may continue to hike rates soon. However, the RBA minutes were less hawkish than expected, which led to a drop in the AUD/USD currency pair.
FOMC meeting in focus
On Tuesday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up by 0.12% at 103.40, following the state-backed purchase of Credit Suisse by UBS, which eased concerns about a global banking crisis. As traders cautiously move back into riskier assets, the dollar has regained some ground.
The decision of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday is the most significant market event this week. The market expects that the Fed will not raise interest rates by more than 25 basis points (bps), as their priority is to restore investors' confidence. Therefore, the dollar is struggling to maintain its upward trend in recovery.
CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that as of Tuesday, there is a roughly 75.3% chance of a 25 bps hike by the Fed. However, the remaining 24.7% are against rate hikes and believe that Chairman Jerome Powell should halt his hawkish tightening campaign in light of the rising bank failure.
If the Fed decides to keep interest rates steady to prevent the effects of rising banking stress, it could benefit the AUD/USD.
AUD/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
0.6678 0.6742
0.6640 0.6768
0.6614 0.6806
Pivot Point: 0.6704
AUD/USD – Technical Outlook
The AUD/USD pair is currently trading bearishly below the 0.6665 level and is approaching its second target at 0.6550. It is moving within a bearish channel, increasing the chances of further bearish corrections, with a possible decline towards 0.6400.
The bearish trend is being supported by the EMA50, and negative momentum may be required to break through and reach the expected target.
However, if the pair manages to surpass the 0.6665 level, it could prevent the anticipated decline and initiate recovery attempts, targeting 0.6780 initially. The expected trading range for the day is between the support level of 0.6500 and the resistance level of 0.6620.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2023
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 20, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The SPX is trading around 3,916.64. Banking stocks fell as early enthusiasm over Swiss rival UBS Group's historic state-backed bailout of struggling lender Credit Suisse gave rise to growing concerns about the risks of the massive debt that major banks are releasing.
Banking Sector Crisis
The forced acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS, arranged by the Swiss government, the latest attempt by governments around the globe to limit a crisis threatening the banking sector, had mixed results for US stocks on Monday.
UBS Group AG will pay $3.23 billion for the 167-year-old Credit Suisse Group AG in a deal arranged by Swiss authorities on Sunday and take on up to $5.4 billion in losses.
The start of the trading week left investors on edge as smaller banks continued to face pressure to strengthen their deposit bases in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank's demise earlier this month.
In addition, global central banks rushed on Sunday to support the flow of money with several planned currency swaps to guarantee banks had the dollars they required to function in the face of the threat of a swift loss of trust in the financial system.
Although such events seemed to boost investor confidence, the spike immediately faded as attention turned to the significant impact certain Credit Suisse bondholders would experience because of the UBS takeover.
US stocks (SPX Index) fell, Treasury rates dropped, and the dollar fluctuated as measures to protect the world banking system failed to calm market concerns.
The dollar index is trading around 103.80, and the US 10-Year Bond Yield is trading down at 3.326.
Fed Interest Rate Speculations
Meanwhile, according to statistics from CME Group, the Federal Reserve has a 62% chance of raising interest rates on Wednesday, which might cause further turmoil in the banking sector.
The banking industry's recent turmoil increased the risks for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Therefore, market participants are betting on a 25 bps rate rise by the Fed or a pause.
If the US Federal Reserve shows an unwillingness to raise rates in the future or delays present hikes, the stock index may climb. But, the SPX will surely drop if Fed will show a hawkish stance.
S&P500 Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
3895 3995
3829 4030
3794 4095
Pivot Point: 3930
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) has encountered a significant obstacle around the $3,960 level, which is reinforced by a downward channel visible in the 2-hour timeframe.
On the lower side, SPX's immediate support is at the $3,850 level, and breaking below this level could potentially lead to further selling toward the $3,765 level. However, leading technical indicators such as RSI and MACD are in a buying zone, indicating a bullish bias among investors.
On the upside, a bullish breakout above the $3,960 level could open up further buying opportunities toward $4,085 or even higher.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 20, 2023
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 20, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD is currently trading at around 1.0745, as there has been an increase in investor risk appetite, leading to the rise of the currency pair. The European Central Bank increased interest rates by 0.50% last week, and recent hawkish remarks from ECB officials seem to be encouraging Euro investors.
On Sunday, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank expects the Credit Suisse rescue plan brokered by the Swiss National Bank would bring calm to the financial markets, and the ECB is prepared to provide loans to eurozone banks if necessary.
In addition, on Friday, many ECB officials spoke to reassure investors about the soundness of the bloc's banks and support the ECB's hawkish monetary policy.
Peter Kazimir, an ECB policymaker, stated that rate hikes must continue, while Governing Council member Gediminas Imkus supported the hawkish stance by stating that they have not yet reached the terminal rate.
All of this news and action supported the euro. Going forward, EUR/USD traders should monitor ECB President Lagarde's speech, scheduled for Tuesday, for potential direction.
FOMC Meeting and EUR/USD in Focus
In the meantime, major central banks are expected to announce joint efforts to increase liquidity through existing US dollar liquidity swap line agreements, which is supporting a risk-on sentiment following the UBS-Credit Suisse deal.
The Federal Reserve may choose to leave interest rates unchanged or raise them by 25 basis points (bps) to control inflation, which is declining amid the ongoing financial crisis. While a 25bps rate hike may help curb inflation, it could also have negative impacts on the corporate banking sector.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently holding steady at its support level of 103.80, while the US 10-Year Bond Yield has risen to around 3.425%. This is contributing to a capped EUR/USD.
The most significant event this week will be the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) announcement of its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, along with preliminary PMI results for March.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0663 1.0704
1.0644 1.0726
1.0622 1.0745
Pivot Point: 1.0685
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently seeing steady buying and selling, putting it on track to reach our predetermined target of 1.0745. The EMA50 is providing solid support, suggesting that the bullish trend will likely persist for the foreseeable future.
As the price reaches the target, keep an eye on it since a break over it will send the bullish wave on to the next important station at 1.0920.
A negative recovery to initially test the minor support regions around 1.0635 is possible if the price consolidates against the bullish wave. Note that if 1.0635 is broken, the day's predicted climb will be halted, and the price will fall to the first station at 1.0515.
Today's trading could take place anywhere within the range of 1.0600 (the level of expected support) and 1.0760 (the level of expected resistance).
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – March 20, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 20, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The price of gold, XAU/USD, is currently trading around $1,988. On Monday, amidst growing concerns about a financial crisis, gold prices moved slightly below their highest levels in 11 months as markets assessed the influence of the Federal Reserve and other major central banks' emergency liquidity measures.
Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset: How Recent Market Turmoil is Affecting XAU/USD?
Several major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have announced additional measures to provide liquidity to the banking industry and prevent any potential spillover from the recent failures of several institutions.
Additionally, a deal supported by regulators saw troubled lender Credit Suisse Group AG acquired by Swiss competitor UBS Group AG.
The Federal Reserve's expanded liquidity policies mark a reversal of a year of monetary tightening aimed at combating inflation and are expected to support strong demand for gold.
The recent turmoil in the banking sector has fueled safe-haven demand for gold, leading to an increase in the XAU/USD price.
Focus on Fed Monetary Policy and Its Impact on Gold Prices
Meanwhile, the deal between UBS and Credit Suisse has reduced the demand for US government bonds. The expectation of additional market liquidity has boosted the recent increase in US government bond rates and supported the recovery of the US dollar while putting pressure on gold prices.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading sideways at 103.80, while the yield on US 10-Year Bonds has risen to 3.414%.
Investors are now awaiting Wednesday's Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate announcement. Despite recent unrest and concerns in the banking sector, several analysts predict that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will raise rates by 25 basis points (bps).
A potential rise in the price of gold could occur if the US Federal Reserve indicates caution about future rate increases or holds off on current increases. However, any hawkish remarks from the Fed are likely to cause XAU/USD to decline.
Gold Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1971 1987
1965 1997
1956 2002
Pivot Point: 1981
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price achieved new strong rises to surpass our waited target at $1,960.00 and approach the psychological barrier at $2,000.00, which supports the continuation of the bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, noting that surpassing the mentioned barrier will push the price to head towards $2,040.00 areas as a next main station.
The EMA50 provides continuous positive support to the price, while stochastic negativity might cause some temporary bearish bias before resuming the bullish bias.
In general, we suggest the continuation of the overall bullish trend domination, and the price needs to hold above $1,960.00 as a first condition to continue the expected rise, as breaking it will press on the price to achieve some intraday bearish correction before turning back to rise again.
The expected trading range for today is between $1,960.00 support and $2,000.00 resistance.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 20, 2023
NASDAQ Price Analysis – March 17, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The Nasdaq 100 Index is currently trading at 12,581.39, which is an increase of 2.69% in the last 24 hours. Stocks are rising as investors anticipate that the authorities will provide sufficient support to the banking system.
First Republic's Support Benefits Banks and Boosts NASDAQ
The market's sentiment has improved following Swiss authorities providing a lifeline to Credit Suisse, and leading American financial firms joining forces to save First Republic Bank, a regional depository institution that was at risk of failing due to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
Investors were pleased to hear that JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and PNC reportedly deposited $30 billion with First Republic Bank as part of a US government-led initiative to support troubled financial firms amid growing systemic concerns.
Moreover, the US regional banks' dramatic situation changed rapidly after the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points. As several of the country's leading lenders rallied to help First Republic Bank, the NASDAQ experienced a significant rebound.
The Fed's Interest Rate Decision Shrouded in Uncertainty
Reports have indicated that the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits in the US has declined more than expected, indicating a strong job market that may encourage the Fed to continue hiking rates.
However, on Wednesday, data showing a decline in producer inflation and weak retail sales numbers supported expectations of a modest rate increase by the Federal Reserve at its meeting.
The Fed will announce a new policy on March 22, and money markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a 25-basis-point rate rise.
Uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate decision has caused the Dollar Index to hit a two-day low at 104.08, while the US 10-year Bond Yield dropped to 3.564%. The weak dollar has capped the rise of the NASDAQ.
Movers and Shakers of the NASDAQ 100 Market
Today, AMD, Marvell Technology, and Intel emerged as the top gainers on the NASDAQ as demand for semiconductor stocks remained strong. Traders are expecting that the increasing demand for AI will boost earnings for semiconductor makers. If the risk appetite remains high and the NASDAQ continues to rise, this trend is likely to continue.
NASDAQ Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
12096 12338
11940 12425
11853 12581
Pivot Point: 12182
NASDAQ – Technical Outlook
The NASDAQ is currently experiencing a bullish trend as it has broken through the resistance area of $12,350 and is now heading toward the next resistance level of $12,750.
If the index manages to break above the immediate resistance level of $12,750, it could expose it to the next resistance area of $13,125.
Both the MACD and RSI indicators are in the buying zone, indicating a strong upward bias in the market. However, if the NASDAQ falls below the $12,400 level, it could potentially reach the $12,100 or $11,850 mark.
BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 17, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The BTC/USD is currently trading at 25,718, up by 6.04% in a day. The global financial markets continue to tremble due to Credit Suisse reporting material weaknesses in its finances and the Saudi National Bank refusing to invest further capital to support the struggling Swiss institution.
To address the liquidity concerns over Credit Suisse, the Swiss National Bank intervened on Wednesday and allowed Credit Suisse to borrow up to $54 billion.
Investors have been impressed by the cryptocurrency market's stability amid the banking crisis this week. Additionally, bitcoin's correlation to stocks has been the lowest in months, altering perceptions of bitcoin as a valuable alternative asset.
After a significant surge in cryptocurrencies this week, the BTC/USD price increased as investors assessed the weaknesses in the financial systems of the US and Europe.
Fed Rate Hikes Uncertainty & BTC
Investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may reduce the 50 basis point interest rate increase to improve its resilience against persistent inflation in the United States.
On Wednesday, the US released data indicating a decline in producer inflation and weak retail sales figures, which raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may only slightly increase interest rates at its meeting.
Furthermore, concerns about a global financial collapse have added to the story of falling inflation, reducing the likelihood that the Fed would raise interest rates by 50 basis points. Reuters has also reported that during its meeting on March 22, the FOMC may only increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.
The Dollar Index has dropped to 104.06 and may continue to fall as uncertainty around the Fed's interest rate decision increases. Therefore, a weaker US dollar has benefited BTC/USD.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
24435 25446
23813 25835
23424 26457
Pivot Point: 24824
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
Bitcoin's price is once again rising above the $25,000 resistance level, and it might increase much further if it manages to break through the $26,500 obstacle zone.
Originally, the Bitcoin price plummeted below the $25,000 support zone, and it even dropped below $24,500. The bulls, though, were aggressive near the $24,000 level, barring a further slide. On the upside, there is immediate resistance near $25,900, which is close to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the $26,525 swing high to the $23,913 low.
The next important obstacle is near $26,500, and if the Bitcoin price can close over this level, it might spark another rally. If the Bitcoin price fails to break over the $25,900 barrier level, it may begin another drop.
On the downside, the immediate support is near the $25,200 area, with the next major support near the $24,500 area and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price falls below this level, it may gather bearish momentum.