EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD is trading around 1.0766, gaining 0.07% in 24 hours. Anxiety related to banks has caused the euro to rise against a falling dollar, as better-than-expected economic data improved market sentiment.
Uncertainty Around US Monetary Policy
The market focus remains on Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest lender, as the next possible victim of the financial crisis. This is due to credit default swaps, which insure the bank against a potential credit crunch, climbing to near five-year highs last week, resulting in a massive sell-off of Deutsche's stock.
Concerning central bankers' remarks, Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, told NPR on Friday that while raising the policy rate was not an easy choice, he does not see the economy shrinking. According to Bostic, the Fed must control inflation.
Additionally, several Fed officials said the Fed could raise interest rates twice more. However, the direction of US monetary policy remains uncertain, especially as regulators take action to prevent further impacts on the banking sector.
Due to a lack of clarity over the direction of US monetary policy, the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped once again to 1.03.05. The falling dollar boosted the EUR/USD.
Markets will be eyeing the next reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, expected on March 31, for signals on how the release may impact the Fed's rate decisions.
The Hawkish ECB
Preliminary readings of the S&P Global PMIs for the Eurozone for March were released on Friday. The Manufacturing index came in at 47.1 versus 49.0 expected and 48.5 previously, but the Services PMI rose to a new 10-month high of 55.6 from 52.7 prior and 52.5 predicted. Consequently, the Composite PMI increased to 54.1 from 51.9 market expectations and 52.0 prior readings, which is a 10-month high.
Meanwhile, a rapid uptick in Deutsche Bank's credit default swaps has reignited market concerns. However, according to Reuters, ECB President Christine Lagarde assured EU leaders on Friday that the Eurozone banking industry is resilient, with robust capital and liquidity. Lagarde continued that the ECB is committed to returning inflation to 2% and will decide on future rates depending on incoming data.
Joachim Nagel, an official of the European Central Bank, added on Friday that raising policy rates to suitably restrictive levels would be required to bring inflation back down to 2%.
Largely positive European data and hawkish ECB comments have helped the euro recover. Moving forward, IFO data for Germany will guide the EUR/USD pair's intraday movements.
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0791 1.0898
1.0754 1.0968
1.0685 1.1005
Pivot Point: 1.0861
EUR/USD – Technical Outlook
The EURUSD pair concluded last Friday above the 1.0745 level, maintaining stability and suggesting the potential for a new intraday bullish wave. This trend aims to achieve gains, beginning with testing the 1.0820 mark and extending to reach the recently recorded high of 1.1032 upon surpassing the previous level.
As a result, we can expect a bullish bias for today, bolstered by the EMA50 that coincides with the aforementioned support line, adding further strength. This is also supported by the clearly visible positive signals from the stochastic indicator. It is important to note that if the 1.0745 level is broken and the price remains below it, the proposed positive scenario will be halted, and the price will be pressured to decline, initially targeting the 1.0630 area.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – March 27, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 27, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $1,975.11, down by 0.18% over the past 24 hours. The price of gold has started to decline following strong preliminary US PMI data.
Additionally, as US officials reassure investors, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset decreases.
Uptick in US Private Sector Business Activity
A sharp increase in overall economic activity suggests that demand is robust, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will face challenges in attempting to lower US inflation.
On Friday, significant US Durable Goods Orders and PMI data were mixed, providing traders with no clear direction for the metal's next move. Durable Goods Orders improved from January's -5.0% figure to a better -1.0% in February, but fell short of the 0.6% anticipated.
Furthermore, a report revealed that the US Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.3 from the previous release of 47.3 and the consensus of 47.0. The Services PMI rose to 53.8, surpassing forecasts of 50.5 and the previously reported 50.6.
Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell implied that few rate hikes are currently planned to avoid a financial collapse. However, recent PMI data may push the Fed to raise rates further.
The strong PMI data supported the Dollar Index (DXY), trading at 103.07 after a significant rebound. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell to 3.372%.
As a result, despite lower rates favoring Gold, the rising US Dollar has weighed on XAU/USD.
Fed Focus on Inflation
Meanwhile, a rapid uptick in Deutsche Bank's credit default swaps has reignited market concerns, leading to a move toward risk appetite on Friday.
Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, stated on Sunday that recent stress in the banking industry and the potential for a secondary credit crisis push the US closer to recession. If recession concerns become widespread, the Fed would face a difficult decision on raising interest rates.
Furthermore, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes the Fed will likely need to raise interest rates more than initially anticipated, as the swift response from US authorities reduces stress in the banking sector, and the economy and inflation remain strong.
James Bullard's comments alleviated risks to the banking industry posed by excessively high rates. It also emphasized that the Fed could now focus on achieving its inflation target instead of worrying about additional bank runs.
Fed officials have expressed confidence in the stability and resilience of the US banking system while emphasizing that inflation remains a top concern. Consequently, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset decreases after Fed officials reassure investors, weighing on the XAU/USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1971 2010
1948 2026
1932 2049
Pivot Point: 1987
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Gold prices recently tested the $2,000.00 barrier once more, but experienced a bearish bounce, subsequently testing the intraday bullish channel's support line shown on the chart.
This was accompanied by positive signals from the stochastic indicator, which is anticipated to encourage the price to resume its primary bullish trend, with the next target set at $2,040.00.
As a result, we will maintain our overall bullish outlook, and the price must surpass the previously recorded high of $2,009.80 to confirm the continuation of the bullish wave. It is important to note that a breach of the $1,962.50 level would halt the expected rise and put pressure on the price to undergo a bearish correction.
The targets for this correction would begin at $1,933.20 and extend to $1,885.90 once the previous level is surpassed. Today's expected trading range is between $1,960.00 support and $2,000.00 resistance.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2023
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 27, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) Index is trading at 3,970.99, up by 0.56% in 24 hours. Despite ongoing financial turbulence, the stock index is rising as Fed officials reassured investors that the US banking sector would maintain stability.
US Officials Reassure Investors
Deutsche Bank, a German lender, experienced a drop in shares on Friday as credit default swaps increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of European banks. A significant rise in Deutsche Bank's credit default swaps has reignited market worries.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attempted to alleviate concerns about the stability of the European banking industry, emphasizing that eurozone banks are resilient with high liquidity and capital levels.
Conversely, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, mentioned on Sunday that the current stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-up credit crunch are pushing the US closer to a recession. The Fed will face a difficult decision regarding interest rate hikes if recession fears become widespread.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes the Fed will likely need to raise interest rates more than initially expected, given the reduced pressure on the banking sector due to the US government's prompt response and the continued well-being of the economy and inflation.
Bullard's comments alleviated risks that excessively high rates pose to the banking sector. It also emphasized the Fed's focus on bringing inflation to its target level rather than worrying about further bank runs.
Fed policymakers expressed confidence in the stability and resilience of the US financial system while emphasizing that inflation remains a significant issue. This helped boost the S&P 500 Index.
Mega Cap Stocks Experience Gains
Amid market uncertainty, investors are buying stock in large American corporations like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia, which have typically driven the market upward.
Since March 8, the stocks of these companies have risen between 4.5% and 12%.
The shift in investment is attributed to factors such as strong balance sheets, healthy profit margins, and business models expected to perform better in the event of a recession.
However, investing in mega-cap companies presents challenges, as indexes like the S&P 500 are influenced by a narrower group of firms due to their expanding market cap. If investors quickly withdraw from leading technology and growth companies, this could cause instability in broader markets.
Additionally, Activision Blizzard topped the list of top gainers. The UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) stated that new data showed "the acquisition would not result in a material reduction of competition in console gaming in the UK," resulting in Activision Blizzard's (ATVI) shares increasing by over 5%.
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
3909 3998
3870 4047
3821 4087
Pivot Point: 3958
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
The S&P 500 is trading at the 3,970 level and is receiving immediate support at the 3,920 level. On the upside, the double-top pattern is expected to present significant resistance at 4,039, and a bullish cross above this specific level can potentially lead the SPX price toward the next resistance level of 4,160.
Conversely, if the SPX breaks below 3,920, there is likely to be a strong wave of further selling pressure until it reaches the 3,840 and 3,750 levels. Regarding leading technical indicators such as MACD and RSI, both indicators are currently in the buying zone, suggesting that the bullish bias remains strong for Monday.
As a result, most investors will likely focus on the 3,900 level, as a candle close above this specific level has the potential to drive an upward trend in the SPX price today.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2023
BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 24, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The BTC/USD is currently trading at 28,235, after gaining 3.18% in a day. Despite concerns about the banking industry, potential changes to monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve's 25bp rate rise, cryptocurrencies managed to remain stable. Bitcoin (BTC) in particular continued to trade at over $28,000.
Less Hawkish Fed Leads to BTC Gains
On Wednesday, the Fed increased interest rates by 25 basis points. While Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible pause to review how tighter monetary policy may affect the banking industry and the economy, the decision to hike rates sparked concerns about future problems in the banking sector.
However, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calmed market sentiments by reassuring investors that bank deposits are secure and that authorities can deal with a banking crisis. Yellen's comments contributed to the bullish session that fueled the BTC/USD uptrend.
Strong Labor Market
On Thursday, new data showed that the initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending March 18 indicated a lower-than-expected increase in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. US jobless claims decreased to 191k, down from 192k in the previous report and below predictions of 198k.
The job market seems to be performing better than economists had anticipated, which may result in increased inflationary pressure and the requirement for the Fed to hike rates more rapidly. As a result, investor concerns about the banking industry have reappeared.
Furthermore, as initial unemployment claims fell, the Dollar Index (DXY) also increased, and is now trading slightly higher at 102.63. The strengthening dollar has capped the BTC/USD rally.
Going forward, traders will be paying attention to preliminary PMIs and durable goods orders to determine market momentum.
BitGo to Launch ESG-friendly Bitcoin-backed Token
The market is preparing for the launch of a new joint venture that aims to capitalize on institutional interest in ESG Bitcoin activities. BitGo, a well-known crypto service provider specializing in digital asset custodial solutions, and Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol (SBP) have joined forces to introduce what they claim is the first sustainable custody solution.
This solution called the Sustainable Bitcoin Certificate (SBC), involves an on-chain approach to address the dirty energy issues that environmental activists have long associated with Bitcoin mining. The initiative is gaining momentum as both institutional and individual traders continue to drive up the price of BTC/USD.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
27370 28990
26435 29675
25750 30610
Pivot Point: 28055
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
Bitcoin's price underwent a significant correction after the Fed raised rates from 4.75% to 5%, causing BTC to drop below the $27,500 level.
However, the bulls emerged near the $26,600 zone, and a low was formed near $26,623. Bitcoin then started a fresh increase and was able to recover all its losses, surpassing the $27,500 resistance zone and even the $28,000 resistance level.
However, the bears prevented further gains as they became active near the $28,500 zone, and BTC must break through this resistance to start a steady increase in the coming sessions.
If the cryptocurrency fails to clear the $28,500 resistance, it could initiate another decline, with immediate support located near the $28,000 zone and the trend line.
The next significant support is near the $27,700 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $26,623 swing low to $28,798 high.
Related:
* SP500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 24, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 24, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading slightly lower at 1,994.30 per ounce but is still close to its highest level in a year. In the early hours of Friday, XAU/USD is struggling to maintain its two-day recovery as it oscillates between $1,991 and $1,994.
Less Hawkish Fed Underpins Gold Price
After the FOMC meeting in March on Wednesday, the price of safe-haven gold increased. This was because the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hinted that tighter credit conditions caused by financial stress could work in the Fed's favor to reduce inflation. As a result, there were speculations that the Bank would probably not need to hike rates as much as anticipated, improving market sentiments.
In addition, the Federal Reserve's chairman, Jerome Powell, said during the press conference that followed the meeting that it was likely that the Fed wouldn't need to hike rates as much as anticipated. This led to gold rising even further.
Gold increased in value because hopes of reduced interest rates are seen as bullish for the metal since it does not provide a return to investors. However, it scaled down its gains after labor market data from the US.
Strong Labor Market Figures
On Thursday, new statistics showed that the initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending March 17 indicated a lower-than-anticipated increase in the number of individuals seeking unemployment benefits. The number of claims was 191K, compared to the predicted 198K.
This suggests that the labor market is better than analysts had predicted, which may lead to increased inflation pressure and the possibility that the Fed may need to raise rates more quickly.
As a result, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield increased to 3.410% in line with traders' forecasts of the Fed fund rates. The Dollar Index (DXY) also rose as initial jobless claims decreased, and is now trading a little higher at 102.63.
Consequently, the XAU/USD fell after the announcement of stronger-than-expected job market statistics strengthened the dollar.
Looking ahead, it will be crucial for gold traders to pay close attention to US preliminary PMIs and durable goods orders to seek fresh momentum.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1971 2010
1948 2026
1932 2049
Pivot Point: 1987
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price has reached the first target of $2,000.00 and is facing strong resistance at this level. Despite showing a slight bearish bias due to stochastic negativity, it is anticipated to resume the bullish wave with the next target at $2,040.00.
In order to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend, the price must surpass the recently recorded high of $2,009.78. Failure to do so may lead to a negative formation, pushing the price back to a correctional bearish track. In such a scenario, losses are expected to begin testing $1,962.50 and extend to $1,933.20.
As long as the price remains stable above $1,962.50, the bullish trend is expected to continue in the upcoming period.
Related:
* SP500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 24, 2023
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 24, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently trading 0.30% higher at 3,948.72, as the market considers a Fed policy pause leading to an increase in stocks. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen attempted to reassure worried investors that deposits in US banks were secure and pledged that policymakers would have more capacity to deal with any crisis.
Yellen reaffirmed her intention on Thursday to take more measures to protect bank deposits if necessary, addressing one of the investors' concerns. However, the decline in bank performance followed Yellen's statement that the government would be prepared to help support regional banks.
On Friday, First Republic Bank started to fluctuate again, lowering expectations for the overall banking situation as attention shifted to the condition of local banks. As regional banks came back under pressure, the S&P 500 saw a reduction in gains.
Fed to Pause Rate Hikes
Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, has previously stated that the ongoing difficulties in the banking sector may have an impact on the US economy and reduce the need for rate hikes, even though inflation remains an issue. The markets reacted positively and sentiment improved after the Fed hinted at a pause in rate hikes following its quarter-point rate increase on Wednesday while still aiming to combat inflation.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield dropped to 3.399%, in line with more conservative rate projections, after rising in tandem with traders' estimates of the Fed fund rates.
In addition, the Dollar Index (DXY) gained momentum as initial unemployment claims for the week ending March 18 came in at 191k, which was below the predicted 197k and the previous week's 192k. The DXY is currently trading slightly higher at 102.70.
Investors gained confidence that the Federal Reserve may hold off on raising interest rates to compensate for the financial market upheaval, which led to a surge in the S&P 500 index.
Top Gainers in Stocks Market
The markets rebounded and closed higher on Thursday, recovering some of the losses from the previous day. The gainers on the S&P 500 were led by tech firms, including Netflix (NFLX), which experienced gains for the first time since October. This was due to a YipitData report that stated the company's gross adds in Canada had improved, causing its shares to increase by 9%.
Accenture Plc (ACN) announced that it would eliminate around 2.5% of its staff or 19,000 positions. More than half of the jobs to be lost would be in non-billable corporate services. This news caused Accenture's share price to increase by more than 7%.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) saw gains of more than 6% following promising findings from a test of its asthma medicine Dupixent on lung illness.
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
3902 4006
3868 4074
3799 4109
Pivot Point: 3971
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
On the technical front, the SPX is currently consolidating in a narrow trading range between the $3,900 and $4,000 levels. A breakout from this range could have a significant impact on the price action of the S&P 500. If the breakout is bullish and exceeds the $4,000 level, it may expose the SPX toward the $4,080 or $4,170 levels.
Currently, support remains around the $3,920 level. On the downside, a bearish breakout below this level could create more selling pressure, leading to a potential drop toward the $3,840 or $3,765 mark. The RSI and MACD indicators support a buying trend, but failure to stay above 50 or 0 could trigger a downward movement.
Investors will be focused on a series of manufacturing and services PMI figures on Friday, which could determine further price action in the market.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – March 24, 2023
NASDAQ Price Analysis – March 23, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) experienced a 1.37% decline, trading at 12,567.15, following the Federal Reserve's 25 bps interest rate increase on Wednesday, with policymakers indicating that there would be only one more rate hike this year.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to combating inflation, stating that the FOMC is firmly committed to achieving its 2% inflation target. However, he noted that the ongoing banking crisis has put pressure on monetary policy, with tighter credit conditions expected to impact economic activity, hiring, and inflation.
The banking sector's stability is crucial to the Fed's rate forecast, and Powell stated that bank savings are protected by the Fed, FDIC, and Treasury. However, he noted that it is still too early to determine how monetary policy should respond to the current banking crisis.
Powell's comments had a significant impact on bank stocks, including First Republic Bancorp (FRC) and PacWest Bancorp (PACW), which experienced substantial losses on Wednesday, leading to a sell-off that impacted the NASDAQ Index.
Corporate Earnings and Active Stocks
KB Home (KBH) reported a net income of $125.5 million for the fiscal first quarter on Wednesday, resulting in a 2.7% increase in share value. The company also announced a $500 million repurchase program.
Steelcase's shares rose more than 6% following the announcement of better-than-expected sales and adjusted profits per share for the most recent quarter, along with a positive forecast for the current quarter.
In contrast, shares of Coinbase (COIN), a cryptocurrency services provider, fell almost 10% after receiving a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding potential breaches of US securities law.
NASDAQ Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
NASDAQ Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
12630 12808
12517 12874
12450 12986
Pivot Point: 12695
NASDAQ – Technical Outlook
The NASDAQ is currently showing a slight tendency towards bullishness, but it is facing resistance at the $12,700 level. On the other hand, the support level seems to be holding firm at around $12,450. The next major support level for the NASDAQ is at $11,850, and if it breaks below this level, it may expose the index to the next support area at $11,600.
Both the MACD and RSI indicators suggest a bearish sentiment in the market, as they are in the selling zone. Nevertheless, if the NASDAQ manages to surpass the $12,700 level, it may potentially aim for the $13,000 or $13,200 levels on the upside.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 23, 2023
GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 23, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The GBP/USD pair is currently trading up 0.52% at 1.2328. The currency pair has surged to seven-week highs due to a higher UK Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reaffirms a potential rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE). The USD has declined due to the Federal Reserve's dovish interest rate policy.
Fed Raises Rates, But Takes Dovish Stance
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark funds rate by 25 basis points to the range of 4.75% - 5.00%. However, it dropped its language about ongoing increases in favor of monitoring how the banking crisis affects the economy.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the FOMC's commitment to getting inflation back to its 2% target. However, the market assumed that the central bank's terminal rate was near, despite the Fed increasing interest rates as expected and reaffirming its inflation control commitment.
The Fed raised interest rates while softening its tone towards tightening monetary policy, indicating that it may eventually consider halting to avoid further economic hardship.
This caused the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies to drop to its lowest level in seven weeks, with the Dollar Index (DXY) down 0.25% at 102.09. This resulted in an increase in the GBP/USD pair.
All Eyes on Bank of England (BoE) as UK Inflation Surges and Interest Rate Decision Looms
Regarding the UK, the GBP/USD is expected to remain strong as the Bank of England (BoE) prepares to increase rates for the eleventh consecutive time. Despite recent economic estimates suggesting a less hawkish stance, the BoE may be swayed towards more hawkish rate increases following the unexpected increase in UK inflation reported on Wednesday through the UK CPI Report.
In February, the country's annual inflation rate rose unexpectedly from 10.1% to 10.4%, with analysts predicting it to be 9.9%. This has created policy uncertainty, with market analysts expecting BoE Governor Andrew Bailey to raise interest rates by 25 basis points due to rising food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, and increasing energy expenses.
GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.2202 1.2331
1.2140 1.2398
1.2073 1.2459
Pivot Point: 1.2269
GBP/USD – Technical Outlook
Yesterday, the GBPUSD pair showed positive trades and attempted to surpass the 1.2300 resistance level. However, it faced solid resistance there, and traders are anticipating further gains in upcoming sessions. The price is currently moving within a bullish channel on the chart, and the next target is expected to be around 1.2440.
To reach the mentioned target, the price needs to gain positive momentum. The EMA50 indicates that the bullish trend may continue within the channel. The expected range for today's trading is between 1.2210 support and 1.2390 resistance.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 23, 2023
BTC/USD Price Analysis – March 23, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The BTC/USD pair is currently trading 3.05% lower at 27,360. The price declined following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, as Powell emphasized the need to control inflation.
FOMC Interest Rate Decision
The US central bank raised interest rates as predicted by a quarter point on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made the move due to ongoing concerns about inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the FOMC is "strongly committed" to getting inflation back to its target of 2%. Consequently, the Committee raised the federal funds rate target range to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.
However, the FOMC also acknowledged the current banking crisis in a statement that accompanied Wednesday's announcement. The statement indicated that recent events could result in tighter credit conditions for households and companies, affecting economic activity, hiring, and inflation.
As expected, the dollar fell to almost a seven-week low as the Fed increased interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 102.10.
The cryptocurrency market was optimistic that Powell would either not raise rates or make highly dovish comments. However, Bitcoin declined after an earlier surge as Powell predicted that rate cuts in 2023 were unlikely due to the Fed's decision to raise interest rates.
SEC’s Action on Coinbase
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently been actively pursuing cryptocurrency companies, with Coinbase being the latest target of SEC investigations.
On March 22, the SEC sent Coinbase a Wells Notice, expressing concerns over their listed digital assets, staking services, and other issues. A Wells Notice serves as a warning to a business that enforcement action may be taken against them for potential securities law violations.
However, Coinbase remains confident in the legitimacy of its assets and services.
The SEC's investigation of Coinbase has put pressure on the broader crypto industry, leading to a fall in both the BTC/USD and the overall cryptocurrency market.
BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
26318 28511
25372 29758
24125 30704
Pivot Point: 27565
BTC/USD – Technical Outlook
Bitcoin experienced a downside correction after reaching the resistance zone of $28,500. However, it found support at around $26,600 and is now trying to increase again. The failure to clear the resistance zone of $28,500, coupled with the Fed's decision to increase rates from 4.75% to 5%, resulted in a bearish reaction that caused BTC to fall below the support zone of $27,500.
The next significant resistance level is around $28,000, and if BTC manages to close above this level, it could signal the start of another major increase, potentially pushing the price toward $28,500 or even the resistance zone of $28,850.
On the other hand, the next major support level is around $26,600, and if BTC falls further, it could test the support zone of $26,000. The next significant support level is around $25,200.
Related:
* GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 23, 2023
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 22, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently trading 1.30% higher at 4,002.9. The index is increasing as investors shift their focus towards the Fed's policy meeting, and the volatility in the bank sector decreases ahead of the event.
Banking Fears Cool Down
The stock market experienced a cautious rebound on Wednesday as fears regarding the banking industry eased ahead of the Federal Reserve's critical policy meeting. Bank shares rose overnight, indicating that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's efforts to ease tensions were successful.
Yellen stated that the Federal Reserve's new Bank Term Funding facility and discount window loans were providing the banking industry with liquidity, which helped alleviate worries about liquidity.
Furthermore, the stock of First Republic Bank (FRC) rose by 29.47% to $15.77. Yellen's promise of further support for banks fueled an increase in the S&P 500, particularly in bank stocks, especially those owned by First Republic.
FOMC Meeting Ahead
At the current two-day monetary policy meeting, members of the FOMC will assess economic forecasts, and they are expected to raise the Fed funds target rate by another 25 basis points as part of their continuous efforts to control inflation.
However, market experts anticipate that more attention will be paid to Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks about the economy, inflation, and how he would handle worries about recent banking issues, rather than the rate rise itself.
In addition to this, the Fed's predictions for the direction of future interest rate rises will also be of interest to investors, even though markets are already pricing in reductions later this year.
The gains made by the S&P 500 Index coincide with the start of the Fed meeting, and many anticipate that it will result in a quarter-point rate rise on Wednesday.
Most Active Stocks
Major US stock indices experienced an increase on Wednesday, with the energy and banking sectors showing particularly strong growth. Following discussions between JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and other major banks regarding investment in First Republic Bank, its shares increased by 29.47%.
Several regional banks, including U.S. Bancorp (USB), Comerica Inc (CMA), and KeyCorp (KEY), also saw significant price increases, with the latter experiencing a gain of over 9%. Furthermore, according to data on automobile registrations, Tesla Inc. was poised to report one of its strongest quarters in China, contributing to a 7.82% increase in the company's stock price.
S&P500 Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
3927 3966
3902 3981
3887 4006
Pivot Point: 3942
S&P500 – Technical Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) has been steadily rising, surpassing the $3,970 mark and heading towards the next resistance level of $4,085. On the lower end, the immediate support level for SPX is at $3,850, and breaking below this level may result in further selling towards the $3,765 mark.
Despite this, leading technical indicators such as RSI and MACD are in a buying zone, indicating a bullish bias among investors.
A bullish breakout above the $4,085 level could create additional buying opportunities towards $4,160 or even higher, signaling positive market sentiment.
Related:
* GOLD Price Analysis – March 22, 2023