USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Pressure Holds: Price remains capped below $1.3912, suggesting continued downside risk.
- Momentum Weak: RSI at 37 confirms limited buying strength.
- Break Below $1.3830: Could accelerate a decline toward $1.3750 and $1.3677.
USD/CAD is trading in a narrow range following an extended downward move, holding below key resistance at $1.3912. This level aligns with a previous consolidation area and coincides with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension of the prior leg. The pair has been unable to break through this ceiling, reinforcing a bearish setup, especially with momentum indicators remaining under pressure.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $1.4076, is sloping downward and far from current price levels, confirming that the medium-term trend remains to the downside. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37.6, with no strong sign of reversal, indicating persistent bearish momentum.
Price continues to test the lower boundary of a short-term consolidation box between $1.3912 and $1.3830, signaling potential for further downside if the lower bound is breached.
If sellers regain control and push below $1.3830, the next support zone comes into focus near $1.3750 — a key Fibonacci projection level. A move beyond that may extend toward $1.3677, where deeper support from the 2.272 extension lies.
As long as price remains below the $1.3912 resistance, short-term bias stays bearish. A break above this level would invalidate the setup and open the way back toward the $1.3965 resistance. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.39126
Take Profit – 1.38034
Stop Loss – 1.39652
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1092/ -$526
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$109/ -$52
USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair dropped back toward the 1.3857 level, reversing its short-lived recovery and continuing its downward trend.
This decline happened as the US Dollar (USD) lost strength due to growing market worries about the US economic outlook and unclear signals about the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates.
Investors are now focusing on Canada’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which is expected later today and could give the pair a new direction.
US Dollar Weakens Despite Earlier Hawkish Fed Commentary
Despite earlier support from hawkish comments by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who emphasized that reaching 2% inflation will take time, the US Dollar faced renewed selling pressure. Market participants are becoming more cautious due to concerns over stagflation and mixed opinions about the Fed’s next move.
Deutsche Bank recently updated its forecast, now expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by two more rate cuts in early 2026. This change in expectations has reduced demand for the US Dollar, pushing the USD/CAD pair lower again.
Canadian Dollar Gains Ground on Improved Risk Sentiment and Trade Relief
On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthened as market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump decided to exempt certain tech products, such as smartphones and laptops, from tariffs.
This decision eased concerns about the US-China trade tensions and increased demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the CAD.
Moreover, the Loonie received support from falling US bond yields and growing expectations ahead of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release today, which could influence the Bank of Canada’s future policy decisions.
USD/CAD Volatility Ahead as Investors Await Canadian CPI and Central Bank Signals
Looking forward, the USD/CAD pair is expected to remain volatile as inflation data and central bank policies continue to influence market sentiment in both the US and Canada.
Investors are adjusting their positions ahead of Canada’s Core CPI release, as a stronger-than-expected inflation reading could make near-term rate cuts from the Bank of Canada less likely, which would support the CAD.
At the same time, Canada’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to 3.12%, down from a recent peak of 3.27%, indicating caution from investors amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.
Therefore, the expectation of stronger Canadian inflation and a lower bond yield suggests reduced likelihood of Bank of Canada rate cuts, supporting the CAD and potentially causing further downside pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading in a narrow range following an extended downward move, holding below key resistance at $1.3912. This level aligns with a previous consolidation area and coincides with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension of the prior leg. The pair has been unable to break through this ceiling, reinforcing a bearish setup, especially with momentum indicators remaining under pressure.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $1.4076, is sloping downward and far from current price levels, confirming that the medium-term trend remains to the downside. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37.6, with no strong sign of reversal, indicating persistent bearish momentum.
Price continues to test the lower boundary of a short-term consolidation box between $1.3912 and $1.3830, signaling potential for further downside if the lower bound is breached.
If sellers regain control and push below $1.3830, the next support zone comes into focus near $1.3750 — a key Fibonacci projection level. A move beyond that may extend toward $1.3677, where deeper support from the 2.272 extension lies.
As long as price remains below the $1.3912 resistance, short-term bias stays bearish. A break above this level would invalidate the setup and open the way back toward the $1.3965 resistance. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Price remains capped below the 50-period SMA and descending trendline.
- Support at $1.41024 is key for confirming further downside.
- Momentum favors bears unless $1.42204 is reclaimed with strength.
USD/CAD is trading at $1.41636, leaning bearish after failing to break above the $1.42204 resistance level. The pair continues to struggle under a descending trendline and the 50-period SMA at $1.42646, both of which cap upside momentum.
Price recently attempted a corrective move, but selling pressure resumed near $1.42200, suggesting bears remain in control. The setup shows potential for a deeper decline, particularly if price breaks and holds below $1.41600.
On the downside, key support is seen at $1.41024—just above the April low. A break beneath this level could open the door to $1.40308 and potentially $1.39619 in extension.
The RSI at 41.16 remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating momentum is soft and still favors sellers. If price fails to reclaim $1.42204 and stays below the 50 SMA, a bearish continuation becomes increasingly likely.
Traders will want to see a sustained move under $1.41600 to confirm the breakout, ideally on increased volume and without immediate rejection. Until then, short-term price action remains vulnerable to minor retracements.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.42204
Take Profit – 1.41024
Stop Loss – 1.43052
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1180/ -$848
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$118/ -$84
USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure around below 1.4200 level.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained strength against the US Dollar (USD), largely driven by recent developments in global trade dynamics and rising expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts. These factors combined with a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, further pressuring the USD/CAD pair.
Canada Avoids New Tariffs, Providing Support for CAD
However, the factors contributing to the Loonie's outperformance is Canada's ability to avoid new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Last week, Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs on dozens of countries, imposing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the US, alongside higher duties on some major trading partners.
However, Canada and Mexico were notably spared in this round, with the exception of auto exports, as well as steel and aluminum, which fall under separate tariff policies.
This development has offered some much-needed support to the Canadian Dollar, as it remains relatively shielded from the growing global trade war. According to Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities, "CAD is outperforming non-USD peers as Canada remains relatively shielded from the new round of tariffs."
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Grow Amid Rising Recession Fears
Meanwhile, the US Dollar is facing downward pressure as investors raise their bets on additional interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
The latest US tariff impositions have sparked concerns of a potential recession, with markets now pricing in a nearly 65% chance of a Fed rate cut in May.
Moreover, futures are indicating approximately 100 basis points worth of rate reductions by December 2025, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Therefore, the growing expectations for US interest rate cuts put downward pressure on the USD, weakening the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar (CAD), contributing to the USD/CAD pair's decline.
USD/CAD Outlook: Impact of US Economic Data, Fed Policy, and Global Trade Developments
Looking ahead, the USD/CAD pair's direction will largely depend on developments surrounding the US economy and any potential shifts in Fed policy. With growing recession fears and the likelihood of further rate cuts, the USD may continue to face downward pressure.
On the other hand, the CAD may maintain its strength, aided by Canada's avoidance of new tariffs and its relative immunity to the global trade tensions.
In the coming weeks, traders will closely monitor the impact of these factors on the USD/CAD pair, particularly as US economic data and Fed commentary continue to shape market expectations.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading at $1.41636, leaning bearish after failing to break above the $1.42204 resistance level. The pair continues to struggle under a descending trendline and the 50-period SMA at $1.42646, both of which cap upside momentum.
Price recently attempted a corrective move, but selling pressure resumed near $1.42200, suggesting bears remain in control. The setup shows potential for a deeper decline, particularly if price breaks and holds below $1.41600.
On the downside, key support is seen at $1.41024—just above the April low. A break beneath this level could open the door to $1.40308 and potentially $1.39619 in extension.
The RSI at 41.16 remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating momentum is soft and still favors sellers. If price fails to reclaim $1.42204 and stays below the 50 SMA, a bearish continuation becomes increasingly likely.
Traders will want to see a sustained move under $1.41600 to confirm the breakout, ideally on increased volume and without immediate rejection. Until then, short-term price action remains vulnerable to minor retracements.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
USD/CAD has climbed decisively above a multi-week descending trendline, crossing the $1.4320 level and reclaiming ground above its 50-period SMA ($1.43219).
The move suggests a bullish reversal is gaining traction, with risk-off sentiment acting as a tailwind for the U.S. dollar.
Traders appear increasingly defensive ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement on Wednesday.
The president confirmed the plan will target all countries, intensifying concerns of a broader trade conflict. This uncertainty continues to weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), particularly given Canada’s heavy export reliance on the U.S.
CAD Faces Headwinds Despite Oil Support
The Loonie remains under pressure after Trump reiterated his administration’s plans to enforce a 25% tariff on auto imports. Given that nearly 75% of Canadian exports are U.S.-bound—primarily oil and autos—this development poses significant downside risk. However, rising crude oil prices may offer some near-term support for the CAD.
As Canada is the largest oil supplier to the U.S., an uptick in crude often lends strength to its currency. Nonetheless, the overall backdrop remains fragile, with sentiment driven by U.S. policy unpredictability and global trade realignments.
Supportive Factors for CAD:
Brent and WTI prices remain elevated amid OPEC+ monitoring.
Oil remains Canada's key export; gains here cushion downside.
Friday’s jobs report could offset tariff impact if strong.
Traders Focus on Packed Canadian Data Week
The Canadian calendar is packed with high-impact events this week that could steer the USD/CAD pair.
Key Upcoming Events:
Tuesday, April 1 – Manufacturing PMI: Previous reading: 47.8
Thursday, April 3 – Trade Balance: Forecast: C$3.4B (vs. C$4.0B prior)
Friday, April 4 – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 10.4K jobs, 6.7% unemployment (vs. 1.1K and 6.6% prior)
With the job market data and trade balance numbers in focus, the Loonie's direction hinges on whether economic strength can counteract external trade risks.
A better-than-expected jobs report could slow USD/CAD’s bullish momentum—but if Canadian data disappoints, the pair may target the $1.44 zone next.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD has broken decisively above a multi-week descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal as price reclaims ground above the 50-period simple moving average ($1.43219).
The pair’s upward momentum accelerated following the breakout from the $1.4370 resistance, which now flips to near-term support. Price is now hovering just below the $1.4450 zone, a level last tested mid-March.
The momentum shift is confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently reading 65.88 and trending higher—suggesting sustained buying interest without yet entering overbought territory.
The bullish crossover of the RSI and its moving average line reinforces this positive momentum. The 50-SMA, once resistance, is now providing dynamic support and aligning with the former descending trendline, offering technical confluence.
If price sustains above the $1.4370 breakout level, upside potential remains toward the $1.4450–$1.4526 resistance corridor. Conversely, a drop back below $1.4315 could invalidate the breakout and expose the pair to renewed bearish pressure toward $1.4237 and $1.4160.
Overall, technicals support a bullish near-term outlook, with momentum, structure, and breakout signals all aligned in favor of further gains—provided price holds above the $1.4370 pivot.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD breaks out of descending trendline, reclaiming bullish structure
- RSI confirms momentum shift with continued upside pressure
- As long as $1.4370 holds, bulls remain in control targeting $1.4450 and higher
USD/CAD has broken decisively above a multi-week descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal as price reclaims ground above the 50-period simple moving average ($1.43219).
The pair’s upward momentum accelerated following the breakout from the $1.4370 resistance, which now flips to near-term support. Price is now hovering just below the $1.4450 zone, a level last tested mid-March.
The momentum shift is confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently reading 65.88 and trending higher—suggesting sustained buying interest without yet entering overbought territory.
The bullish crossover of the RSI and its moving average line reinforces this positive momentum. The 50-SMA, once resistance, is now providing dynamic support and aligning with the former descending trendline, offering technical confluence.
If price sustains above the $1.4370 breakout level, upside potential remains toward the $1.4450–$1.4526 resistance corridor. Conversely, a drop back below $1.4315 could invalidate the breakout and expose the pair to renewed bearish pressure toward $1.4237 and $1.4160.
Overall, technicals support a bullish near-term outlook, with momentum, structure, and breakout signals all aligned in favor of further gains—provided price holds above the $1.4370 pivot.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.43714
Take Profit – 1.44507
Stop Loss – 1.43050
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$793/ -$664
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$79/ -$66
USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading around 1.4320, recovering after losses in the previous session.
The pair, which is usually sensitive to market risk sentiment, is gaining strength as traders remain cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement on April 2.
The uncertainty surrounding the potential for new tariffs is affecting investor sentiment, but the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is finding some support due to mixed signals from Trump’s comments. This balance of caution and uncertainty is keeping the pair in focus for traders.
Risk Aversion and Tariff Expectations Impacting USD/CAD
On the CAD front, the Canadian dollar has been buoyed by comments from Trump, who hinted that "a lot" of countries could receive exemptions from the tariffs, though details remain uncertain.
This sparked some optimism among investors, who welcomed the possibility that the US may adopt a more targeted, measured approach to tariffs. This easing of concerns over potential disruptions to Canadian businesses has provided support for the CAD, allowing it to recover against the USD.
Despite this, the US dollar faced pressure due to rising fears of an economic slowdown, fueled in part by concerns surrounding Trump’s trade policies. The uncertainty surrounding the tariff announcement has led to a risk-off sentiment in the markets, with investors seeking safer assets.
However, the pressure on the USD has been somewhat offset by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week. Powell emphasized the solid labor market and inflation moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target, which helped to support the Greenback.
US Economic Data Provides Mixed Signals
On the economic front, the latest data paints a mixed picture for the US economy. The S&P Global US Composite PMI for March rose to 53.5, marking a strong recovery from February’s 10-month low of 51.6 and signaling the strongest expansion since December 2024.
This growth was largely driven by a sharp rebound in business activity in the services sector. The S&P Global US Services PMI surged to a three-month high of 54.3, surpassing expectations and showing a marked improvement from February’s reading of 51.0.
On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI showed signs of weakness, slipping to 49.8 from 52.7 and falling short of expectations. This decline followed February’s strong manufacturing growth, indicating that while the services sector remains robust, the manufacturing sector is facing headwinds.
Therefore, the mixed US economic data, with strong services growth but weak manufacturing, could create volatility in the USD/CAD pair, as traders weigh the overall strength of the US economy.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading marginally lower at $1.43282, just above its pivot point at $1.43084, maintaining a cautiously bullish tone in early trading.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair consolidating above a key support level, with the 50-period EMA positioned at $1.43445. Price action remains tightly compressed between this EMA and immediate resistance at $1.43596, signaling indecision but with an upward lean.
A break above $1.43596 would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially lifting the pair toward the next resistance levels at $1.44013 and $1.44518. These zones represent areas of recent selling interest and will be critical in determining the sustainability of any breakout.
On the downside, if the pair dips below the pivot at $1.43084, immediate support lies at $1.42661. A further breakdown may expose deeper levels at $1.42125 and $1.41602, with the latter serving as a major trendline support zone.
As long as the pair stays above the pivot and reclaims the 50-EMA, short-term bias remains upward. However, any failure to hold above $1.43084 could shift control back to sellers.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 25, 2025
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD holds above pivot at $1.43084; bias leans mildly bullish.
- Break above $1.43596 may target $1.44013 and $1.44518 resistance.
- Support sits at $1.42661; deeper risk toward $1.42125 if broken.
USD/CAD is trading marginally lower at $1.43282, just above its pivot point at $1.43084, maintaining a cautiously bullish tone in early trading.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair consolidating above a key support level, with the 50-period EMA positioned at $1.43445. Price action remains tightly compressed between this EMA and immediate resistance at $1.43596, signaling indecision but with an upward lean.
A break above $1.43596 would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially lifting the pair toward the next resistance levels at $1.44013 and $1.44518. These zones represent areas of recent selling interest and will be critical in determining the sustainability of any breakout.
On the downside, if the pair dips below the pivot at $1.43084, immediate support lies at $1.42661. A further breakdown may expose deeper levels at $1.42125 and $1.41602, with the latter serving as a major trendline support zone.
As long as the pair stays above the pivot and reclaims the 50-EMA, short-term bias remains upward. However, any failure to hold above $1.43084 could shift control back to sellers.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.43088
Take Profit – 1.43845
Stop Loss – 1.42670
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$757/ -$418
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$75/ -$41
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD remains bearish below $1.43084, with downside targets at $1.42764 and $1.42409.
- Resistance at $1.43388 must be broken for bulls to regain control and push toward $1.43793.
- Oil price strength and Fed policy shifts will influence USD/CAD’s next major move.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.42958, showing slight weakness as it struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price is currently below the pivot point at $1.43084, suggesting that sellers hold control in the near term.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43514 reinforces bearish sentiment, indicating further downside potential if key support levels break.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.43388, followed by $1.43793 and $1.44214. A break above these levels could indicate renewed buying interest, but momentum remains weak. For bulls to regain control, USD/CAD must decisively close above the 50-day EMA at $1.43514.
On the downside, support at $1.42764 is critical for short-term price action. A break below this level could drive the pair toward $1.42409, with further declines extending to $1.42086. A sustained move below $1.42764 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially leading to deeper losses.
Technically, a break below $1.43080 is likely to accelerate selling pressure, making $1.42573 a key short-term target.
However, if USD/CAD rebounds and moves above $1.43388, sentiment could shift toward a potential bullish correction. Traders should watch for a break below $1.43080 to confirm further downside momentum.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.43080
Take Profit – 1.42573
Stop Loss – 1.43374
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$507/ -$294
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$50/ -$29
USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair maintained its upward trend and stayed above the 1.4300 level. The rise was mainly due to the US Dollar (USD) recovering after recent losses.
Traders remained cautious as they waited for key economic data and central bank decisions, which could impact the pair’s movement.
USD Finds Support Ahead of Fed Meeting but Faces Rate Cut Pressure
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has recovered slightly from its lowest level since October 2024, driven by repositioning ahead of this week’s crucial Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. Despite this rebound, USD gains remain limited as markets anticipate multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year, keeping broader pressure on the greenback and affecting USD/CAD movement.
Oil Prices and Trade Developments Support the Canadian Dollar
Another factor that impacts the USD/CAD pair is the rise in crude oil prices, which are near a two-week high due to tensions in the Middle East.
This supports the Canadian Dollar (CAD) since Canada is a major oil exporter. Also, progress in US-Canada trade talks has strengthened CAD, limiting further gains in USD/CAD.
Canada’s Inflation Data and BoC Policy Impact on USD/CAD
On the other side, Canada’s February inflation data, set to be released on Tuesday, could impact the USD/CAD pair. Inflation is expected to rise from 1.9% to 2.1%, which may support the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will also publish its core CPI report, which tracks underlying inflation trends. In January, core CPI rose by 0.4% MoM and 2.1% YoY.
The BoC recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, its seventh consecutive cut due to slowing economic growth.
However, new US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum could raise inflation risks, possibly influencing BoC’s future rate decisions and affecting USD/CAD movements.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.42958, showing slight weakness as it struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price is currently below the pivot point at $1.43084, suggesting that sellers hold control in the near term.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43514 reinforces bearish sentiment, indicating further downside potential if key support levels break.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.43388, followed by $1.43793 and $1.44214. A break above these levels could indicate renewed buying interest, but momentum remains weak. For bulls to regain control, USD/CAD must decisively close above the 50-day EMA at $1.43514.
On the downside, support at $1.42764 is critical for short-term price action. A break below this level could drive the pair toward $1.42409, with further declines extending to $1.42086. A sustained move below $1.42764 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially leading to deeper losses.
Technically, a break below $1.43080 is likely to accelerate selling pressure, making $1.42573 a key short-term target.
However, if USD/CAD rebounds and moves above $1.43388, sentiment could shift toward a potential bullish correction. Traders should watch for a break below $1.43080 to confirm further downside momentum.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 18, 2025