USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

Daily Price Outlook

- Bearish Pressure Holds: Price remains capped below $1.3912, suggesting continued downside risk.

- Momentum Weak: RSI at 37 confirms limited buying strength.

- Break Below $1.3830: Could accelerate a decline toward $1.3750 and $1.3677.

USD/CAD is trading in a narrow range following an extended downward move, holding below key resistance at $1.3912. This level aligns with a previous consolidation area and coincides with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension of the prior leg. The pair has been unable to break through this ceiling, reinforcing a bearish setup, especially with momentum indicators remaining under pressure.

The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $1.4076, is sloping downward and far from current price levels, confirming that the medium-term trend remains to the downside. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37.6, with no strong sign of reversal, indicating persistent bearish momentum.

Price continues to test the lower boundary of a short-term consolidation box between $1.3912 and $1.3830, signaling potential for further downside if the lower bound is breached.

If sellers regain control and push below $1.3830, the next support zone comes into focus near $1.3750 — a key Fibonacci projection level. A move beyond that may extend toward $1.3677, where deeper support from the 2.272 extension lies.

As long as price remains below the $1.3912 resistance, short-term bias stays bearish. A break above this level would invalidate the setup and open the way back toward the $1.3965 resistance. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.39126

Take Profit – 1.38034

Stop Loss – 1.39652

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1092/ -$526

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$109/ -$52