GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Critical Pivot: Gold remains below $2,633.90; a breakout above $2,636.56 is needed to regain bullish momentum.
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $2,646.32, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $2,653.22.
- Support Levels: Key support at $2,625.31; break below $2,615 may trigger deeper declines to $2,590.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,632.48, down 0.14%, as bearish momentum continues to weigh on prices below the $2,633.90 pivot point. The 4-hour chart indicates a cautious market, with immediate resistance at $2,646.32, followed by $2,655.97.
The 50-day EMA at $2,653.22 reinforces this resistance zone, making it a critical barrier for any recovery. A breakout above these levels could pave the way toward bullish momentum, targeting $2,663 and beyond.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $2,625.31, with further declines pointing to $2,590.17 and $2,576.56. The RSI at 45 reflects mild bearish sentiment, though it has yet to reach oversold conditions, leaving room for further downside pressure.
The current setup suggests that gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on a decisive move above $2,636.56 or below $2,624. A break above the pivot could trigger buying momentum, targeting $2,653, while a sustained drop below $2,615 would likely accelerate selling pressure.
Traders should monitor these key levels closely. The recommended strategy includes buying above $2,624 with a take-profit target at $2,653 and a stop-loss at $2,615 to manage downside risks effectively.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2624
Take Profit – 2653
Stop Loss – 2615
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$527/ -$316
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$52/ -$31
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) picked up some further bullish momentum and climbing to an intraday high of $2,653.82. However, the increase came as investors sought safety amid rising global tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continues to unsettle markets.
Adding to the uncertainty, concerns about President-elect Donald Trump's potential tariff policies have made gold a more attractive option for investors looking to safeguard their assets in these uncertain times.
Moving ahead, traders await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index and quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized scheduled to be released later in the North American session.
Gold Gains Amid Weaker US Dollar and Cautious Fed Signals
On the US front, the US dollar has been under pressure, weighed down by bond market optimism and cautious signals from the Federal Reserve. The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from November 7 show that policymakers are hesitant to cut interest rates further, citing easing inflation and strong job growth.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that the Fed is moving toward a neutral rate policy, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari hinted at the possibility of another rate cut in December.
Adding to the uncertainty, US President-elect Donald Trump is making key appointments, with Jamieson Greer expected to become the US Trade Representative, emphasizing tariffs as a cornerstone of Trump’s economic plans.
Moreover, Scott Bessent, a seasoned Wall Street figure, has been nominated as Treasury Secretary, signaling a focus on fiscal conservatism. These developments have supported gains in the US bond market, creating mixed sentiment around the dollar.
On the US economic front, the recent data like the preliminary S&P Global PMI, suggests the Federal Reserve might slow down its rate cuts. Futures markets currently estimate a 57.7% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in December. This cautious outlook on monetary policy keeps traders focused on inflation trends and upcoming Fed decisions.
Therefore, the weaker US dollar and cautious Federal Reserve outlook support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. However, uncertainty around future rate cuts and strong US bond market performance may limit gold's upside in the near term.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,644.20, up 0.43%, as the metal continues its rebound from recent lows. On the 4-hour chart, the price is firmly positioned above the pivot point at $2,636.43, reflecting a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,646.32, closely aligned with recent highs, while further resistance is seen at $2,655.97. A decisive breakout above these levels could pave the way for an extended rally toward $2,665.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,624.72, with secondary levels at $2,590.15 and $2,576.56. A break below the pivot point could expose gold to bearish momentum, testing the $2,600 mark and possibly lower levels.
Technical indicators point to a neutral to slightly bullish bias. The RSI currently stands at 48, signaling consolidation with room for either a breakout or a pullback depending on upcoming catalysts. Traders are closely watching inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for cues.
The overall technical picture suggests that gold’s ability to sustain above the pivot point at $2,636.43 is critical for maintaining upward momentum. However, strong resistance at $2,646.32 could limit gains unless fresh drivers emerge.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate resistance at $2,646.32: A breakout could target $2,655.97 and beyond.
- Support at $2,624.72: Failure to hold above this level may lead to a bearish reversal.
- RSI at 48: Indicates consolidation, with potential for breakout or pullback depending on market catalysts.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,644.20, up 0.43%, as the metal continues its rebound from recent lows. On the 4-hour chart, the price is firmly positioned above the pivot point at $2,636.43, reflecting a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,646.32, closely aligned with recent highs, while further resistance is seen at $2,655.97. A decisive breakout above these levels could pave the way for an extended rally toward $2,665.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,624.72, with secondary levels at $2,590.15 and $2,576.56. A break below the pivot point could expose gold to bearish momentum, testing the $2,600 mark and possibly lower levels.
Technical indicators point to a neutral to slightly bullish bias. The RSI currently stands at 48, signaling consolidation with room for either a breakout or a pullback depending on upcoming catalysts. Traders are closely watching inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for cues.
The overall technical picture suggests that gold’s ability to sustain above the pivot point at $2,636.43 is critical for maintaining upward momentum. However, strong resistance at $2,646.32 could limit gains unless fresh drivers emerge.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2635
Take Profit – 2655
Stop Loss – 2625
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1000
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$100
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Sentiment: RSI at 36 indicates oversold conditions, yet recovery is limited.
- Critical Levels: Support at $2,605.31 and resistance at $2,647.56 dictate near-term direction.
- Trend Outlook: Below $2,632, the bearish trend is expected to extend toward $2,594.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,623.21, down 0.09%, as it consolidates below the critical pivot point at $2,631.72. Technical indicators suggest that bearish momentum dominates, with immediate support at $2,605.31. A break below this level could expose gold to deeper supports at $2,582.37 and $2,561.16.
On the upside, resistance levels lie at $2,647.56, the 50-day EMA at $2,663.32, and further at $2,687.93. These levels present formidable challenges, especially as gold remains weighed down by a weaker Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 36, which reflects oversold conditions but insufficient buying pressure to trigger a recovery.
The bearish outlook is further supported by the alignment of the 50-day EMA as a dynamic resistance level, capping upward moves. Gold traders are focusing on the potential for a break below $2,631.72, which could trigger a sell-off toward the next significant target at $2,594. Conversely, a reversal above the pivot and sustained trading above $2,647.56 would be necessary to challenge the next resistance zones.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2632
Take Profit – 2594
Stop Loss – 2653
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3800/ -$2100
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$380/ -$210
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 26, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is facing some difficulty in gaining momentum and has been stuck around the $2,600 mark, hovering near its lowest point in a week during the European session on Tuesday. However, the tariff threat from US President-elect Donald Trump sparked some brief safe-haven demand, giving gold a small boost.
Despite this, concerns that the Federal Reserve might take a less dovish approach are preventing gold from making significant gains, putting a lid on its upward potential for now.
Meanwhile, the market is increasingly confident that President-elect Donald Trump’s expansionary policies could drive inflation higher, which may push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a slower pace. This belief is fueling a fresh rise in US Treasury bond yields and giving the US Dollar a boost. Hence, the stronger dollar, in turn, is putting more pressure on gold prices.
Moreover, the increasing optimism around Scott Bessent’s nomination as the US Treasury Secretary and hopes for a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah are further limiting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Moving ahead, market participants are now focusing on the upcoming FOMC minutes for clues about the Federal Reserve's future rate-cut plans.
Impact of US Economic Trends and Fed Expectations on Gold Prices
The US Dollar continues to rise and stay strong, mainly because people expect President-elect Donald Trump's policies to boost inflation. This could lead the Federal Reserve to slow down its interest rate cuts. As a result, US Treasury bond yields are going up, which makes the US Dollar stronger and puts some pressure on gold prices.
However, the ongoing hopes that Scott Bessent, the possible US Treasury Secretary, will take a more gradual approach to tariffs have led to a sharp drop in US Treasury bond yields. This has temporarily weakened the USD, but the decline in bond yields remains limited due to the ongoing expectation of a less dovish Fed.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that the central bank will continue to lower rates unless there is clear evidence of an overheated economy, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested another rate cut could be considered at the December FOMC meeting.
However, traders are scaling back their bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, as Trump's policies are expected to fuel inflation. This keeps US bond yields higher and helps the USD fill its weekly bearish gap, further limiting gold's upside potential.
Market participants are now looking to the FOMC minutes and upcoming economic data, including the Q3 GDP revision and the PCE Price Index, for more insights on the Fed’s future actions.
Therefore, the stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury bond yields limit gold's upside potential. As expectations of slower rate cuts and higher inflation grow, demand for gold remains subdued, keeping the precious metal under pressure in the market.
Geopolitical Tensions and Ceasefire Hopes Impact Gold Prices
On the geopolitical front, the possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have put pressure on gold prices at the start of the week. However, tensions are still high in the Middle East. Israeli forces have intensified their operations in northern Gaza, and there have been ongoing strikes in Lebanon.
These actions continue to raise concerns about a further escalation in the region, which could eventually increase demand for gold if the situation worsens.
Despite the ceasefire hopes, the geopolitical risks remain, keeping the market on edge. If the conflict escalates further, it could drive more investors to seek gold as a safe haven, which may provide some support for the precious metal in the near future.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,623.21, down 0.09%, as it consolidates below the critical pivot point at $2,631.72. Technical indicators suggest that bearish momentum dominates, with immediate support at $2,605.31. A break below this level could expose gold to deeper supports at $2,582.37 and $2,561.16.
On the upside, resistance levels lie at $2,647.56, the 50-day EMA at $2,663.32, and further at $2,687.93. These levels present formidable challenges, especially as gold remains weighed down by a weaker Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 36, which reflects oversold conditions but insufficient buying pressure to trigger a recovery.
The bearish outlook is further supported by the alignment of the 50-day EMA as a dynamic resistance level, capping upward moves. Gold traders are focusing on the potential for a break below $2,631.72, which could trigger a sell-off toward the next significant target at $2,594. Conversely, a reversal above the pivot and sustained trading above $2,647.56 would be necessary to challenge the next resistance zones.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 25, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the weaker US dollar, gold prices (XAU/USD) failed to gain ground and remain under pressure around the 2,660 level. However, the reason for its downward trend could be associated with several factors.
First, the recent nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary by US President-elect Donald Trump cleared uncertainty in the markets, boosting investor confidence and contributed to the declines in the safe-haven assets.
In addition, news of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah lifted market sentiment, driving funds away from safe-haven assets like gold. On top of that, the expectation that Trump’s policies could trigger inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates further pressured the precious metal.
US Dollar Decline and Strong Economic Data Weigh on Gold's Prospects
Despite positive US economic data, the US dollar has been trading lower on Friday. However, the downside risks for the dollar are limited as strong US economic indicators, like the preliminary S&P Global US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), have boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve might slow down its rate cuts.
As a result, traders are now pricing in a 50.9% chance of the Fed cutting rates by just a quarter point, a slight decrease from the 61.9% probability seen a week ago.
On the data front, the latest PMI data showed strong growth in the US economy. The US Composite PMI rose to 55.3 in November, marking the fastest private sector growth since April 2022.
In the meantime, the Services PMI surged to 57.0, far exceeding expectations and pointing to the strongest expansion in services since March 2022. Although the Manufacturing PMI slightly improved, it remained below 50, indicating continued contraction in the sector.
Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes are keeping Treasury yields high. These policies could lead to higher inflation, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Fed officials, like Jerome Powell, say the economy is strong and rate cuts should be careful.
Therefore, the US dollar's decline and strong economic data limit gold's potential for gains as higher Treasury yields and inflation risks from Trump's policies reduce gold's attractiveness as a safe haven. As a result, gold faces downward pressure.
Geopolitical Easing and Economic Optimism Weaken Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal
On the geopolitical front, media reports suggest that Israel and Hezbollah are close to reaching a ceasefire deal, though it hasn't been finalized yet. This news has led to reduced tensions in the region, which generally lowers the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Moreover, the ongoing optimism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's potential business-friendly policies is supporting a positive outlook for equity markets. As investors feel more confident about the economy, they tend to move away from gold, which is often sought during times of uncertainty.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have dropped 1.78%, trading at $2,668.50, as risk-on sentiment pressures the safe-haven asset. Gold is testing immediate support near $2,653.49, with stronger levels at $2,634.96 and $2,619.00 if selling momentum persists. The pivot point at $2,673.85 is acting as a key threshold for short-term price direction.
The 50 EMA at $2,683.28 currently serves as dynamic resistance, aligning with a broader bearish trend. Immediate resistance is at $2,689.52, with further hurdles at $2,705.99 and $2,720.66 if gold attempts a rebound. However, the RSI at 34 signals oversold conditions, suggesting a potential pause in bearish momentum.
A sustained break below $2,653.49 could open the door to further declines toward $2,634.96. Conversely, failure to break support may trigger a short-term bounce, targeting the $2,689.52 pivot point or higher. Traders should watch these levels closely, with $2,674 being the entry point for a sell position, targeting $2,654 with a stop loss at $2,685.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: $2,689.52, $2,705.99, $2,720.66.
- Support Levels: $2,653.49, $2,634.96, $2,619.00.
- Momentum Indicators: RSI at 34 indicates oversold conditions, signaling potential for a short-term recovery.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have dropped 1.78%, trading at $2,668.50, as risk-on sentiment pressures the safe-haven asset. Gold is testing immediate support near $2,653.49, with stronger levels at $2,634.96 and $2,619.00 if selling momentum persists. The pivot point at $2,673.85 is acting as a key threshold for short-term price direction.
The 50 EMA at $2,683.28 currently serves as dynamic resistance, aligning with a broader bearish trend. Immediate resistance is at $2,689.52, with further hurdles at $2,705.99 and $2,720.66 if gold attempts a rebound. However, the RSI at 34 signals oversold conditions, suggesting a potential pause in bearish momentum.
A sustained break below $2,653.49 could open the door to further declines toward $2,634.96. Conversely, failure to break support may trigger a short-term bounce, targeting the $2,689.52 pivot point or higher. Traders should watch these levels closely, with $2,674 being the entry point for a sell position, targeting $2,654 with a stop loss at $2,685.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2674
Take Profit – 2654
Stop Loss – 2685
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1100
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$110
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 22, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to shine, finally hitting the $2,700 mark, thanks to escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Investors see gold as a safe bet, especially during uncertain times like these, and they’re confident it could climb even higher.
Many believe President-elect Donald Trump’s policies might push inflation up, which could weaken the dollar and make gold more appealing.
Interestingly, even though the US dollar has hit its strongest level since October 2023, gold prices are still on the rise. Higher inflation fears and the possibility that the Federal Reserve might hold back on cutting interest rates are fueling this rally.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Rate Cut Uncertainty, But Gold Continues to Rise as a Safe Haven Amid Inflation Concerns
On the US side, the dollar has been on the rise, hitting its highest point since October 2023. This surge comes as investors are starting to think the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates as quickly as they originally expected. A big reason for this is the worry that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies could push inflation higher, which might make the Fed hesitate on rate cuts.
Recently, some top Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have raised concerns about the risks of inflation and warned against easing policies any further. As a result, traders are now betting on a 55% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently pointed out that inflation is moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target and suggested it might be a good idea to slow down the rate cuts. Similarly, New York Fed President John Williams mentioned that the labor market is in a good place and isn't contributing to rising inflation.
On the economic front, US weekly jobless claims fell by 6,000 last week, dropping to 213,000, which is the lowest number in seven months. Existing home sales also bounced back in October, marking their first annual increase since mid-2021.
However, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index revealed an unexpected decline in manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area this November. Investors will be closely watching Friday’s flash PMIs for more clues about the global economy, as they could have an impact on gold prices.
Despite the rising US dollar and expectations of slower rate cuts, gold continues to rise strongly. This is driven by ongoing inflation concerns and the demand for gold as a safe haven, with investors seeking protection from economic uncertainties.
Escalating Russia-Ukraine Tensions Boost Gold Prices as Investors Seek Safe Haven Amid Market Uncertainty
On the other hand, the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine are driving more investors to gold as a safe haven. As a result, gold prices climbed for the fifth straight day on Friday, even with the US dollar remaining strong. Recently, Russian forces launched a new intermediate-range missile at Ukraine, retaliating against Ukraine’s use of US and UK-made missiles to target sites in Russia.
The ongoing conflicts are adding more uncertainty to the market, making gold a more appealing choice for those wanting to shield their investments from risk.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are trading at $2,695.58, marking a 0.97% increase as bullish momentum strengthens. The metal is nearing immediate resistance at $2,711.09, with further levels at $2,726.95 in focus.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,673.90, followed by $2,645.52 and $2,635.05, providing a safety net for price corrections. The pivot point at $2,691.73 is crucial for maintaining upward momentum. A sustained move above this level would bolster bullish sentiment and validate further gains.
The RSI stands at 81, signaling overbought conditions that could trigger a short-term pullback. Despite this, the 50-day EMA at $2,639.13 continues to act as strong dynamic support, reinforcing the broader uptrend. Price action remains aligned with a bullish channel, and the upward trajectory is expected to persist as long as prices hold above the pivot.
Traders are advised to consider buying above $2,684 with a take-profit target at $2,710 and a stop-loss at $2,666. A breakout above $2,711.09 could push prices toward $2,726.95, but caution is warranted due to overbought signals from the RSI.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Critical Resistance: $2,711.09 is the next key resistance, with $2,726.95 as the extended target.
- Overbought Signals: RSI at 81 suggests potential short-term consolidation or correction.
- Dynamic Support: The 50-day EMA at $2,639.13 underpins the broader bullish trend.
Gold prices are trading at $2,695.58, marking a 0.97% increase as bullish momentum strengthens. The metal is nearing immediate resistance at $2,711.09, with further levels at $2,726.95 in focus.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,673.90, followed by $2,645.52 and $2,635.05, providing a safety net for price corrections. The pivot point at $2,691.73 is crucial for maintaining upward momentum. A sustained move above this level would bolster bullish sentiment and validate further gains.
The RSI stands at 81, signaling overbought conditions that could trigger a short-term pullback. Despite this, the 50-day EMA at $2,639.13 continues to act as strong dynamic support, reinforcing the broader uptrend. Price action remains aligned with a bullish channel, and the upward trajectory is expected to persist as long as prices hold above the pivot.
Traders are advised to consider buying above $2,684 with a take-profit target at $2,710 and a stop-loss at $2,666. A breakout above $2,711.09 could push prices toward $2,726.95, but caution is warranted due to overbought signals from the RSI.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2684
Take Profit – 2710
Stop Loss – 2666
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2600/ -$1800
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$260/ -$180
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: Immediate at $2,675.25; next targets at $2,691.73 and $2,711.09.
- Support Levels: Key support at $2,619.22; additional levels at $2,592.86 and $2,571.02.
- Technical Indicators: RSI at 73 signals overbought conditions, but bullish EMA crossover supports upward trend.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,660.89, up 0.39% for the day, supported by strong bullish sentiment on the 4-hour chart. Prices remain comfortably above the pivot point at $2,646, suggesting sustained momentum.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,675.25, followed by $2,691.73 and $2,711.09, as gold continues to push toward higher levels amid global uncertainty and robust safe-haven demand.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,619.22, with additional levels at $2,592.86 and $2,571.02 providing safety nets for potential retracements. The RSI is currently at 73, indicating overbought conditions, though the strong trend suggests this may persist in the short term.
The 50-day EMA at $2,613.76 offers solid support, reinforcing the bullish case. Traders are advised to monitor the $2,646 pivot closely, as a break below this level could reverse the trend and open the door to sharper declines toward $2,619 or lower.
A potential entry point is identified at $2,646, with a suggested stop loss at $2,630 to manage downside risks. Profit targets are set at $2,674 and above, as technical indicators align with bullish market conditions.
Overall, gold’s technical landscape remains favorable above $2,646, bolstered by geopolitical risks and investor appetite for safe-haven assets. Traders should watch resistance at $2,691.73 for confirmation of further upside momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2646
Take Profit – 2674
Stop Loss – 2630
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2800/ -$1600
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$280/ -$160