Daily Price Outlook

Despite the US dollar's strong performance and concerns surrounding a property crisis in China, the AUD/USD currency pair managed to bounce back from near the 0.6400 level during the European session on Tuesday. It has reached a fresh daily high, trading around 0.6425, with a modest 0.10% gain for the day.

AUD/USD pair has remained within a familiar trading range for about two weeks. However, the US dollar's bullish trend, driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook, is limiting the pair's gains, while worries about the property crisis in China are holding back Australian dollar bulls from making fresh investments.

The US Dollar's Strength and Challenges for AUD/USD

The broad-based US dollar has been gaining momentum, hitting its highest level since December 2022. Although, the recent pause in its upward trend is offering some temporary relief to the AUD/USD currency pair. However, the overall strength of the US dollar is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Furthermore, the ongoing concerns about a property crisis in China are weighing down the Australian dollar and contributing to the AUD/USD pair losses.

Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance and its Impact on AUD/USD

It is worth noting that Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish stance, highlighting its commitment to keeping interest rates higher for an extended period. It anticipates at least one more rate hike this year, backed by influential FOMC members who stress the importance of higher borrowing costs in controlling inflation and reaching the 2% target.

Furthermore, the Fed is considering only two interest rate cuts in 2024, down from the previously projected four cuts. This policy shift is also pushing up yields on US Treasury bonds. Hence, these factors contribute to the continued strength of the US dollar and create challenges for the AUD/USD pair in achieving a significant recovery.

Looking forward, traders are anticipating upcoming US economic data releases, including the Consumer Confidence Index, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which could provide fresh direction for currency pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair currently hovers around the crucial 0.6400 support level, consistently maintaining above this threshold. Notably, the stochastic indicates pronounced positive momentum, enhancing the likelihood of a continued upward trajectory aiming for our primary anticipated target of 0.6545.

Given this backdrop, we remain optimistic about a bullish trend in the near future. However, it's imperative to note that any breach below the 0.6400 mark could curtail the anticipated ascent, pivoting the currency pair into a decline.

Today's forecasted trading range is anchored between support at 0.6380 and resistance at 0.6480.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently evaluating the support of its intraday bullish channel and maintaining its position above this line, indicating potential upward movement towards our anticipated target of 0.6345. This outlook is bolstered by the positive indicators from the stochastic oscillator.

The EMA50 underpins the price, adding further weight to the anticipated uptrend. This bullish perspective will hold unless the price breaks the 0.6400 level and sustains below it at the daily close. Today, we anticipate the trading range to span between a support level of 0.6390 and a resistance point of 0.6490.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.64393

Take Profit – 0.64001

Stop Loss – 0.64671

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$392/ -$278

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$392/ -$27

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to gain momentum and remained sluggish around the 0.6430 mark. However, this lack of movement was attributed to investor caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision. Furthermore, the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) September meeting did not provide any clear direction to the traders. Consequently, traders prefered for a cautious approach and decided to wait and observe the coming decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At the time of writing, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6452 and consolidating in the range between 0.6428 - 0.6460.

RBA's September Meeting and Impact on AUD/USD

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shared information from its September meeting, giving us a better understanding of its monetary policy decisions. During this meeting, the RBA discussed the possibility of a 0.25% increase in interest rates. However, after a careful examination of the latest economic data, they ultimately decided to keep interest rates unchanged. In the meantime, the released minutes reveal a cautious approach, suggesting that if persistent high inflation remains a concern, they may consider raising rates in the future. Nevertheless, the minutes from the meeting did not provide any clear indications of a coming rate hike. Therefore, this lack of clarity will likely have a negative impact on the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) in the short term.

US Fed's Monetary Policy and Its Impact on AUD/USD

Across the ocean, the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in September, which makes the US Dollar weaker. However, investors are being careful because they believe the Fed might raise rates by 0.25% by the end of 2023. This is because the US economy is doing well, and prices keep rising.

As in result, the broad-based US dollar, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has halted its two-day decline and is now trading around 105.20. It's slightly below the six-month high reached last week. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields, specifically the 10-year bond, have bounced back to 4.31%, which could help support the dollar. Hence, the potential rate hike in 2023 may lead to a stronger US Dollar. This could put downward pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair, making the Australian Dollar weaker against the USD.

Looking forward, investors will keep thier eyes on upcoming US macro data, particularly Building Permits and Housing Starts for August. These numbers will likely give insights into the strength of the US economy and influence trading decisions for the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently evaluating the support of its intraday bullish channel and maintaining its position above this line, indicating potential upward movement towards our anticipated target of 0.6345. This outlook is bolstered by the positive indicators from the stochastic oscillator.

The EMA50 underpins the price, adding further weight to the anticipated uptrend. This bullish perspective will hold unless the price breaks the 0.6400 level and sustains below it at the daily close. Today, we anticipate the trading range to span between a support level of 0.6390 and a resistance point of 0.6490.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair remains steadfast, maintaining its position above the 0.6400 mark, thus reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. The next primary target in sight stands at 0.6545. The current negative trajectory of the Stochastic indicator may temporarily impede upward momentum.

However, we anticipate a shift towards a positive momentum that could bolster the pair towards the aforementioned targets. It's crucial to note that sustaining a position above 0.6400 is pivotal for the continuation of this bullish trajectory. For today, we forecast the pair to trade within a range, with support at 0.6390 and resistance capped at 0.6490.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 0.64095

Take Profit – 0.64499

Stop Loss – 0.63835

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$404/ -$260

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$40/ -$26

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair failed to prolong its previous upward rally and declined during Tuesday's Asian session, moving away from the four-day high it reached around 0.6450 on Monday. However, this decline was mainly due to increased demand for the US dollar. It is worth noting that investors are betting that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates again in 2023. This coupled with a cautious market sentiment is bolstering the US dollar. Furthermore, China's economic worries and disappointing Australian consumer confidence data are also exerting downward pressure on the Australian dollar and contributes to the AUD/USD pair.

US Dollar Rebounds, Puts Pressure on AUD/USD Pair

The broad-based US dollar has recovered after a recent drop and seems to have paused its retreat from a six-month high, which is putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair. However, This is mainly because the Federal Reserve is expected to continue tightening its monetary policy, which keeps US Treasury bond yields high and supports the USD. Furthermore, the risk-off mood in the market is making the Greenback more appealing as a safe-haven currency, adding to the strain on the riskier Australian Dollar.

Investors believe the Fed will maintain higher interest rates, with some even expecting another 25 bps increase by year-end. In the meantime, the positive US economic data and reports of officials leaning toward rate hikes contribute to concerns about rising borrowing costs and dampen attraction for riskier assets like AUD.

Challenges for AUD/USD Amid Poor Aussie Confidence Data

Moreover, the AUD/USD pair faced additional pressure due to disappointing Australian consumer confidence data. In September, the Westpac - Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence Index plunged to a dismal 79.7. This index has remained below the 100 mark since March 2022, the longest such period since the early 1990s recession. This decline comes amid growing worries about China's worsening economic conditions, suggesting the Australian dollar could face more downside risks as a China-related currency.

Traders may choose to stay cautious as they await the upcoming US consumer inflation figures set to release on Wednesday. These numbers will likely impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future rate hikes, influencing demand for the US dollar and potentially driving the AUD/USD pair's direction.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair remains steadfast, maintaining its position above the 0.6400 mark, thus reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. The next primary target in sight stands at 0.6545. The current negative trajectory of the Stochastic indicator may temporarily impede upward momentum.

However, we anticipate a shift towards a positive momentum that could bolster the pair towards the aforementioned targets. It's crucial to note that sustaining a position above 0.6400 is pivotal for the continuation of this bullish trajectory. For today, we forecast the pair to trade within a range, with support at 0.6390 and resistance capped at 0.6490.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair exhibited pronounced bearish activity yesterday, breaking through the 146.55 mark to touch 145.90. However, it has since oscillated around the initial level, influenced by the fading positive momentum of the stochastic indicator. Additionally, the EMA50 exerts downward pressure on the price.

Given these dynamics, we are inclined to forecast continued bearish tendencies in forthcoming sessions. It's imperative to note that our subsequent primary target stands at 145.55. Any breach beyond 146.90 would negate the anticipated decline, potentially realigning the pair with its primary bullish trajectory. Today, we project a trading range between a support level of 145.80 and resistance at 147.40.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 146.454

Take Profit – 147.955

Stop Loss – 145.709

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$150/ -$74

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$15/ -$7

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has found support around the mid-0.6300s for the second day in a row and is recovering slightly from its lowest point since November 2022, which it reached this Wednesday. However, it's struggling to break above the 0.6400 level during the early European session. The pair strives to rebound from its year-to-date low, but its upward momentum remains limited. However, the slightly improved Australian GDP provides some relief as demand for the US dollar remains subdued. However, concerns loom over China's economic outlook, restraining any substantial gains, with traders awaiting the US ISM Services PMI for clearer market direction.

USD Pauses, Australian GDP Boosts AUD/USD

However, the US Dollar is taking a breather after its recent climb to a six-month high. This pause, combined with a positive Australian GDP report, is prompting some short-covering in the AUD/USD currency pair. It is worth noting that the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that the economy grew by 0.4% from April to June, slightly exceeding the expected 0.3% and surpassing the previous quarter's 0.2% growth. On an annual basis, it came in at 2.1%, just below the 2.3% seen in the first quarter. This better-than-expected economic performance in Australia is contributing to the Aussie dollar's recovery against the US dollar.

AUD/USD Faces Challenges Amid China Worries and US-China Trade Tensions

Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair is struggling to gain bullish momentum due to concerns about China's worsening economic situation. Furthermore, the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are capping the gains of the Australian Dollar, which is often seen as a proxy for China's economic performance. In the latest news, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo mentioned that she doesn't anticipate any changes to the tariffs imposed on China by the previous US administration until the current review by the US Treasury is completed.

Therefore, these factors, combined with the expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not raise interest rates further, are weighing on the Australian Dollar.

RBA Holds Steady, Fed Rate Expectations Favor USD

Furthermore, the Australian central bank has maintained its Official Cash Rate at 4.10% for the third consecutive month, signaling a pause in its policy tightening. In contrast, the market anticipates a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2023, bolstering US Treasury bond yields and the US dollar. Moving on, traders await the US ISM Services PMI release in the early North American session and monitor US bond yields, which will influence the US dollar and create short-term trading prospects.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair concluded its trading below the 0.6400 mark yesterday, reinforcing the anticipated bearish trajectory for both intraday and short-term periods, with a clear path towards our target of 0.6300.

The enduring influence of the bearish flag pattern underscores the projected decline, complemented by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It's pivotal to highlight that any surge beyond 0.6400 could disrupt this bearish outlook, prompting the price to initiate a recovery phase.

For today's trading, we project a range bracketed by a 0.6310 support level and a 0.6410 resistance threshold, with prevailing sentiment tilting bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair concluded its trading below the 0.6400 mark yesterday, reinforcing the anticipated bearish trajectory for both intraday and short-term periods, with a clear path towards our target of 0.6300.

The enduring influence of the bearish flag pattern underscores the projected decline, complemented by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It's pivotal to highlight that any surge beyond 0.6400 could disrupt this bearish outlook, prompting the price to initiate a recovery phase.

For today's trading, we project a range bracketed by a 0.6310 support level and a 0.6410 resistance threshold, with prevailing sentiment tilting bearish.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.63840

Take Profit – 0.64194

Stop Loss – 0.63541

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$354/ -$299

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$35/ -$29

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has commenced today's trading session on a distinctly bearish note, evidenced by its breach of the intraday bullish channel's support. This development is suggestive of a bearish flag pattern, which is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the pair in forthcoming sessions. Initial objectives center on the 0.6400 mark, with a breach of this level potentially accelerating the pair's descent toward the 0.6300 milestone.

In light of these dynamics, a bearish outlook is projected for today, further substantiated by the pair's position below the EMA50. It's imperative to note, however, that any inability to penetrate the 0.6400 barrier could interrupt this bearish narrative, prompting a price recovery.

Today's anticipated trading spectrum is demarcated by a support level at 0.6360 and resistance at 0.6445.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64015

Take Profit – 0.63639

Stop Loss – 0.64223

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$376/ -$208

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37/ -$20

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has been unable to halt its ongoing decline, edging closer to the year-to-date low reached in August. However, the downward trend can be attributed to a combination of factors. The weaker economic data from China and the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to maintain its current interest rates have exerted downward pressure on the Australian Dollar. Simultaneously, the US Dollar has surged to its highest level in over three months, further contributing to the sharp decline in the AUD/USD pair.

AUD Weakening Amid China Concerns and RBA's Hold on Rates

It's worth noting that the Australian Dollar (AUD) started weakening due to concerns about China's slowing services sector, as a private survey showed its slowest growth in eight months, with the Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI dropping from 54.1 to 51.8 in August. This raised worries about China's economic health, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and leading to aggressive selling of the AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stuck to its wait-and-see approach, keeping the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.10% for the third consecutive month. The RBA mentioned that some further tightening might be needed to control inflation, aiming for the 2-3% target range by mid-2025.

Hence, the lack of fresh signals hinting at more rate hikes has fueled speculation that the tightening cycle could be ending, failing to impress bullish traders or support the AUD/USD pair.

USD Strength and Fed Rate Expectations Impact AUD/USD Pair

Furthermore, the drop in the AUD/USD pair can also be attributed to renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD), which has gained strength due to increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Despite some indications of a softening labor market in the US, markets are still factoring in the chance of another 25 basis points Fed rate hike by year-end.

This outlook drives US Treasury bond yields higher and propels the USD to a three-month high, intensifying the bearish sentiment surrounding the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

The AUD/USD pair has commenced today's trading session on a distinctly bearish note, evidenced by its breach of the intraday bullish channel's support. This development is suggestive of a bearish flag pattern, which is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the pair in forthcoming sessions. Initial objectives center on the 0.6400 mark, with a breach of this level potentially accelerating the pair's descent toward the 0.6300 milestone.

In light of these dynamics, a bearish outlook is projected for today, further substantiated by the pair's position below the EMA50. It's imperative to note, however, that any inability to penetrate the 0.6400 barrier could interrupt this bearish narrative, prompting a price recovery.

Today's anticipated trading spectrum is demarcated by a support level at 0.6360 and resistance at 0.6445.