Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair struggled to maintain its intraday gains and lost some of its gains despite some positive news regarding Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations. It's worth noting that the most recent report from the Melbourne Institute showed a modest increase in October, with expectations standing at 4.8%, a slight improvement from the previous month's 4.6%. However, this uptick can be attributed to rising oil prices, particularly the surge in petrol costs, which are influencing consumer expectations for the near future.

Despite these factors, the AUD/USD pair faced challenges, possibly due to concerns related to a potential interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

USD Struggles Amidst Low Treasury Yields and Fed Uncertainty

The broad-based US dollar is currently facing challenges around the 105.70 mark, thanks to the low US Treasury yields. Despite strong economic indicators, there's a prevailing uncertainty regarding the potential for an upcoming interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. In September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations, and the core PPI also displayed an upward trend. Surprisingly, US Treasury bond yields took a dip, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.54%.

The Federal Reserve officials is currently grappling with internal disagreements. Some members support for maintaining high interest rates for an extended duration, and others want to raise them more quickly. However, this decision depends on how prices for things are changing - if they go up a lot, it could affect their choice. This Thursday, we will get more information about how prices are changing and how many people are asking for unemployment help. This will help us understand what the US dollar and the people who make decisions about money might do soon.

RBA's Interest Rate Hike Speculations Provide Tailwinds

Another key factor contributing to the Australian Dollar's strength is the growing speculation of an impending interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA has been carefully keeping an eye on economic conditions, and the idea of adjusting monetary policy to address increasing inflation is gaining traction. The current rate sits at 4.10%, and there is growing anticipation that it could move higher.

A potential interest rate hike would make the AUD more attractive to investors seeking higher yields, thus contributing to its strength. This anticipation is one of the key factors supporting the AUD/USD pair. However, it's essential to watch for developments from the RBA and their future monetary policy decisions.

Geopolitical Tensions and Their Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Furthermore, the losses in the AUD/USD pair were further bolstered by the geopolitical tensions, especially those arising from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. These geopolitical issues tend to undermine rikier assests like Australian dollar and disrupt the currency pair's direction.

Conversely, the geopolitical conflicts often boost demand for commodities, particularly energy and gold. Australia is a key player in the global commodities market, and the increased demand for these resources is positively impacting the Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

On October 12, the AUD/USD pair exhibited a modest uptrend, marking a 0.08% gain to position itself at 0.64205, as captured in the 4-hour timeframe. The pivot point for the currency pair stands decisively at 0.6372.

In the realm of resistance, the AUD/USD faces an immediate barrier at 0.6457, with subsequent levels at 0.6530 and then at 0.6617. On the downside, the first line of defense is at 0.6296, followed by supports at 0.6212 and further to 0.6138.

Diving into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57, signifying a somewhat bullish sentiment without being in the overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a reading of -0.00008 against its signal line at 0.00135. This suggests a potential for downward momentum, although it's marginal and might require careful observation. Notably, the pair is trading just above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) valued at 0.6392, hinting at a short-term bullish trajectory.

In wrapping up, the AUD/USD portrays a bullish sentiment as long as it remains above the 0.6392 mark. However, given the close proximity of the current price to this threshold and mixed technical signals, traders should exercise caution. The near-term forecast anticipates the pair testing the immediate resistance levels, but market participants would do well to closely monitor global economic events and technical indicators to make informed decisions.

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Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.64087, reflecting its recent price dynamics. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is at 0.6373, serving as a significant reference point for traders and investors.

Key price levels to watch include immediate resistance at 0.6458, followed by 0.6532 and 0.6617. These levels represent crucial zones where price action may encounter resistance or support.

On the downside, immediate support can be found at 0.6299, with subsequent support levels at 0.6299 and 0.6212, indicating potential areas for reversals or continuations.

Turning to technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently registers at 59.93, suggesting a relatively neutral sentiment. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) exhibits a value of 0.00068, with the signal line at 0.00122, indicating minimal bullish momentum.

One observed chart pattern is the Tweezers top pattern near 0.6420, hinting at the possibility of a selling trend. Traders should keep a close eye on this pattern, as it may influence the pair's direction.

In conclusion, the overall trend for AUD/USD appears to be bearish, especially below the level of 0.64315. Traders should monitor this critical level for potential trading opportunities in the coming days. The short-term forecast suggests the possibility of testing resistance at 0.6458 and beyond.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64342

Take Profit – 0.63765

Stop Loss – 0.64752

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$577/ -$410

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$57/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has managed to sustain its upward momentum, maintaining a positive trajectory on the day. However, this strength can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, Australia's exports have witnessed higher prices, contributing significantly to the Australian Dollar's robust performance. Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has provided further support to the AUD/USD currency pair.

Moreover, there has been a notable boost in consumer confidence among Australians in the month of October, further bolstering the strength of the Aussie dollar. Furthermore, the anticipation of a potential interest rate hike of 0.25% by Australia's central bank, the RBA, before the end of the year has also influenced the Australian Dollar's position in the market.

Recent Developments in Australia's Economy and Geopolitical Landscape

As per the latest data, Australia's inflation surged in August, primarily driven by higher oil prices, elevating the chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implementing interest rate hikes. Persistent Middle East tensions, with the potential to further propel oil prices, could exacerbate inflation Down Under, potentially prompting the RBA to raise rates by 0.25% to 4.35% by year-end.

Meanwhile, Australian consumer confidence, as indicated by Westpac Consumer Confidence data, rebounded in October with a 2.9% upturn following a slight dip of 1.5% in September. The Australian stock market is growing, propelled by surging commodity prices, particularly within the mining and oil sectors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are fostering demand for commodities, thereby favoring the AUD/USD pair. Australia and Japan's efforts to ensure a stable energy supply fortify their strategic partnership. The RBA's potential rate hikes, spurred by persistent inflation surpassing the target, signify noteworthy economic shifts.

US Dollar and Treasury Yields Impact on Currency Markets

Despite strong US job data released on Friday, the US dollar failed to gain traction and still trading sluggish. This is because the US Treasury yields fell on Monday, as well as statements from Federal Reserve officials made investors less certain about future rate hikes, causing yields to drop further. This has weakened the dollar and helped the Aussie pair.

In September, the US added 336,000 jobs, beating expectations. However, wage growth was slightly lower than expected. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell to 4.64% on Monday. Dallas Fed President Lori Logan suggested that raising the Fed funds rate might not be as urgent, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasized the need for caution in raising rates.

Looking ahead, traders will closely watch the US Core Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday, followed by the FOMC Minutes and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday. These events are crucial for understanding inflation and economic conditions in both the US and Australia.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.64087, reflecting its recent price dynamics. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is at 0.6373, serving as a significant reference point for traders and investors.

On the downside, immediate support can be found at 0.6299, with subsequent support levels at 0.6299 and 0.6212, indicating potential areas for reversals or continuations.

Turning to technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently registers at 59.93, suggesting a relatively neutral sentiment. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) exhibits a value of 0.00068, with the signal line at 0.00122, indicating minimal bullish momentum.

One observed chart pattern is the Tweezers top pattern near 0.6420, hinting at the possibility of a selling trend. Traders should keep a close eye on this pattern, as it may influence the pair's direction.

In conclusion, the overall trend for AUD/USD appears to be bearish, especially below the level of 0.64315. Traders should monitor this critical level for potential trading opportunities in the coming days. The short-term forecast suggests the possibility of testing resistance at 0.6458 and beyond.

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Daily Price Outlook

In today's Daily Technical Outlook for AUD/USD on October 5, the currency pair is currently trading at $0.6363 with a 4-hour chart timeframe.

Key price levels include a pivot point at $0.6423, immediate resistance at $0.6511, and subsequent resistances at $0.6591 and $0.6682. On the support side, immediate levels are found at $0.6342, followed by $0.6253 and $0.6173.

Technical indicators show a relatively neutral stance, with the RSI at 51.87, indicating a balanced sentiment. Additionally, the 50 EMA stands at $0.6377, indicating a short-term bearish trend as the price is currently just below this level.

The observed chart pattern highlights the struggle of AUD/USD to breach the 50 EMA, implying a bearish sentiment. As for fundamental news, there are no specific updates to report.

In conclusion, the overall trend for AUD/USD appears to be bearish below the $0.6377 level, with a short-term forecast indicating a continued struggle to surpass this resistance point in the coming days, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.63781

Take Profit – 0.62746

Stop Loss – 0.64604

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1035/ -$823

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$103/ -$82

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair prolonged its upward rally and gained some further positive momentum on the day. However, this boost came after a decline in the US Dollar and a drop in US Treasury yields. Moreover, Australia's Bureau of Statistics shared some good news for the Aussie economy in August. They reported that the Trade Balance, which measures the country's exports and imports, improved significantly. This means that Australia sold more goods to other countries, and that is great for the Australian Dollar.

Moving on, there are some challenges for the AUD/USD pair. People are being careful because they're not sure what the US Federal Reserve will do with interest rates. Plus, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also not very optimistic, and this makes the Australian Dollar weaker. So, while things are good now, there are worries for the future.

Australian Trade Improvements and RBA's Interest Rate Decision

It's important to highlight that in August, Australia sold more stuff to other countries than it bought, and this is good news for the Australian Dollar. In August, their Trade Balance improved a lot, reaching 9,640 million, which was even better than what people expected. In July, it was 8,039 million, so things got better.

However, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had a meeting recently and decided to keep the interest rate as it is, at 4.10%. But there's a chance they might raise it to 4.35% by the end of the year because prices have been going up a lot, and the RBA wants to control that. The new leader of the RBA, Michele Bullock, said they might need to make money a bit harder to get because prices are still high and might stay high for some time.

Factors Boosting the AUD/USD Pair

Another factor that has been boosting the AUD/USD pair was a dip in the US Dollar Index (DXY) from its 11-month high. This happened because some recent data about jobs in the US wasn't great, and US Treasury yields took a step back. Notably, the US economy's service sector slowed down a bit in September, and the number of new jobs created in the private sector was lower than expected. This news made the US Dollar lose some strength.

However, the major event is still to come: the Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls reports due on Friday. If those reports are good, the US Dollar could bounce back. This could also make the bond market more unpredictable.

In today's Daily Technical Outlook for AUD/USD on October 5, the currency pair is currently trading at $0.6363 with a 4-hour chart timeframe.

Key price levels include a pivot point at $0.6423, immediate resistance at $0.6511, and subsequent resistances at $0.6591 and $0.6682. On the support side, immediate levels are found at $0.6342, followed by $0.6253 and $0.6173.

Technical indicators show a relatively neutral stance, with the RSI at 51.87, indicating a balanced sentiment. Additionally, the 50 EMA stands at $0.6377, indicating a short-term bearish trend as the price is currently just below this level.

The observed chart pattern highlights the struggle of AUD/USD to breach the 50 EMA, implying a bearish sentiment. As for fundamental news, there are no specific updates to report.

In conclusion, the overall trend for AUD/USD appears to be bearish below the $0.6377 level, with a short-term forecast indicating a continued struggle to surpass this resistance point in the coming days, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

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Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair decisively penetrated the 0.6400 mark, approaching the anticipated initial bearish target of 0.6330. Market projections suggest further downward momentum, with subsequent targets at 0.6270 and then 0.6200.

In the foreseeable future, the bearish outlook is poised to prevail, underscored by its position beneath the EMA50. It's pivotal to note that any sustained breach above 0.6400 could halt this decline, ushering in potential recovery efforts. For today's trading landscape, the AUD/USD is projected to fluctuate between a support level of 0.6280 and a resistance point of 0.6380.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.63604

Take Profit – 0.62540

Stop Loss – 0.64037

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$858/ -$412

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$85/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its bearish trend, failing to find support as it remained firmly below the mid-0.6300s. It is trading at 0.6313, showing a marginal 0.78% loss for the day. However, the decline in its value can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's adoption of a more hawkish stance, the upward trajectory of US bond yields, and the persistent strength of the US dollar.

Furthermore, the market participants seems cautious to place any strong position as they await the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to reveal its monetary policy decisions.

US Manufacturing Data and Federal Reserve Comments Impacting AUD/USD

It's important to mention that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September came in at 49.0, up from the previous reading of 47.6. This was slightly higher than the expected 47.7 but still indicates that the US manufacturing sector is shrinking. In more detail, the Prices Paid Index dropped from 48.4 to 43.8, showing a decrease in prices paid by manufacturers.

On the positive side, the Employment Index increased from 48.4 to 51.2, indicating some improvement in job prospects. Furthermore, the New Orders Index went up from 46.8 to 49.2, suggesting a slight increase in new orders.

On another note, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that it is likely they'll raise interest rates and keep them high for a while. On the other hand, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr has taken a more cautious stance, emphasizing the importance of how long interest rates will remain high. Barr believes that they can control rising prices without negatively impacting job opportunities.

Therefore, the AUD/USD currency pair may face some additional pressure as the stronger US data and hints of higher interest rates could boost the US dollar's attractiveness relative to the Australian dollar.

Economic Outlook and Key Events in Australia and the US

In Australia, the Reserve Bank is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.1% during Michele Bullock's first meeting as governor. Market watchers will pay close attention to the RBA's statement, especially for any hints about potential future rate hikes, which could help support the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

Looking ahead, traders will be closely monitoring the RBA's interest rate decision on Tuesday. In the US, the focus will shift to employment data, with the ADP report coming on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. These reports can influence the currency market dynamics.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair decisively penetrated the 0.6400 mark, approaching the anticipated initial bearish target of 0.6330. Market projections suggest further downward momentum, with subsequent targets at 0.6270 and then 0.6200.

In the foreseeable future, the bearish outlook is poised to prevail, underscored by its position beneath the EMA50. It's pivotal to note that any sustained breach above 0.6400 could halt this decline, ushering in potential recovery efforts. For today's trading landscape, the AUD/USD is projected to fluctuate between a support level of 0.6280 and a resistance point of 0.6380.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite positive Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, the AUD/USD pair failed to gain any positive traction and slipped below the 0.6350 mark. This decline coincided with the release of the Retail Sales report for August, which showed a modest 0.2% growth, falling short of the expected 0.3% increase. Adding to the downward pressure, the US Dollar continued to strengthen, driven by higher US Treasury yields and positive economic indicators. These factors combined to weigh down on the AUD/USD pair.

Australian CPI Rebound and AUD Challenges

It's important to highlight that Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded in August, primarily due to an increase in energy prices. This uptick in inflation has stirred up expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Surprisingly, though, the Australian Dollar (AUD) didn't perform well despite these encouraging CPI figures.

Notably, the AUD is currently facing downward pressure, largely because of a risk-off sentiment in the market. Investors are growing more risk-averse, which has had a dampening effect on the currency's performance. Furthermore, the declining prices of commodities have been a significant factor holding back the AUD/USD pair from making substantial gains.

US Dollar Strengthens Amidst Positive Economic Developments and Fed Statements

Across the ocean, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its impressive rally, reaching its highest point since December. However, this surge in the US Dollar can be attributed to some positive economic developments in the United States and robust performance of US Treasury yields, which are breaking records. Further adding to the bullish sentiment surrounding the USD are the confident statements coming from Federal Reserve (Fed) board members. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, has hinted at the possibility of future interest rate hikes. However, he has also left the door open for rates to remain unchanged if rate cuts are delayed even further.

Hence, the strengthening US Dollar due to robust economic factors and potential interest rate hikes could put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

Global Economic Concerns and US Data Awaited: Impact on Currency Markets

Another factor putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair is the concerning situation in China. Evergrande, the world's most heavily indebted property developer with over $300 billion in debts, is grappling with a severe crisis. The chairman of the company is even under police scrutiny, adding to the overall uncertainty.

Traders are also closely monitoring the upcoming release of the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized, which is expected to remain at 2.1%, scheduled for Thursday. On Friday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge for consumer inflation, is anticipated to drop from 4.2% to 3.9%.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair exhibited a distinct downtrend, nearing our initial forecasted target of 0.6330. We project a continued bearish momentum with an aim to reach the subsequent level at 0.6275. This outlook is underpinned by the bearish pressure exerted by the EMA50.

It's imperative to note that the persistence of this bearish trend hinges on the price maintaining its position below the 0.6400 mark. For today's trading landscape, we anticipate a range between a support level at 0.6300 and a resistance threshold at 0.6400.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair exhibited a distinct downtrend, nearing our initial forecasted target of 0.6330. We project a continued bearish momentum with an aim to reach the subsequent level at 0.6275. This outlook is underpinned by the bearish pressure exerted by the EMA50.

It's imperative to note that the persistence of this bearish trend hinges on the price maintaining its position below the 0.6400 mark. For today's trading landscape, we anticipate a range between a support level at 0.6300 and a resistance threshold at 0.6400.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.63875

Take Profit – 0.63300

Stop Loss – 0.64342

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$575/ -$467

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$57/ -$46

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair currently hovers around the crucial 0.6400 support level, consistently maintaining above this threshold. Notably, the stochastic indicates pronounced positive momentum, enhancing the likelihood of a continued upward trajectory aiming for our primary anticipated target of 0.6545.

Given this backdrop, we remain optimistic about a bullish trend in the near future. However, it's imperative to note that any breach below the 0.6400 mark could curtail the anticipated ascent, pivoting the currency pair into a decline.

Today's forecasted trading range is anchored between support at 0.6380 and resistance at 0.6480.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64191

Take Profit – 0.63820

Stop Loss – 0.64463

Risk to Reward – 1: 3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$371/ -$272

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37/ -$27