Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has been unable to halt its ongoing decline, edging closer to the year-to-date low reached in August. However, the downward trend can be attributed to a combination of factors. The weaker economic data from China and the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to maintain its current interest rates have exerted downward pressure on the Australian Dollar. Simultaneously, the US Dollar has surged to its highest level in over three months, further contributing to the sharp decline in the AUD/USD pair.

AUD Weakening Amid China Concerns and RBA's Hold on Rates

It's worth noting that the Australian Dollar (AUD) started weakening due to concerns about China's slowing services sector, as a private survey showed its slowest growth in eight months, with the Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI dropping from 54.1 to 51.8 in August. This raised worries about China's economic health, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and leading to aggressive selling of the AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stuck to its wait-and-see approach, keeping the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.10% for the third consecutive month. The RBA mentioned that some further tightening might be needed to control inflation, aiming for the 2-3% target range by mid-2025.

Hence, the lack of fresh signals hinting at more rate hikes has fueled speculation that the tightening cycle could be ending, failing to impress bullish traders or support the AUD/USD pair.

USD Strength and Fed Rate Expectations Impact AUD/USD Pair

Furthermore, the drop in the AUD/USD pair can also be attributed to renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD), which has gained strength due to increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Despite some indications of a softening labor market in the US, markets are still factoring in the chance of another 25 basis points Fed rate hike by year-end.

This outlook drives US Treasury bond yields higher and propels the USD to a three-month high, intensifying the bearish sentiment surrounding the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

The AUD/USD pair has commenced today's trading session on a distinctly bearish note, evidenced by its breach of the intraday bullish channel's support. This development is suggestive of a bearish flag pattern, which is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the pair in forthcoming sessions. Initial objectives center on the 0.6400 mark, with a breach of this level potentially accelerating the pair's descent toward the 0.6300 milestone.

In light of these dynamics, a bearish outlook is projected for today, further substantiated by the pair's position below the EMA50. It's imperative to note, however, that any inability to penetrate the 0.6400 barrier could interrupt this bearish narrative, prompting a price recovery.

Today's anticipated trading spectrum is demarcated by a support level at 0.6360 and resistance at 0.6445.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has commenced today's trading session on a distinctly bearish note, evidenced by its breach of the intraday bullish channel's support. This development is suggestive of a bearish flag pattern, which is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the pair in forthcoming sessions. Initial objectives center on the 0.6400 mark, with a breach of this level potentially accelerating the pair's descent toward the 0.6300 milestone.

In light of these dynamics, a bearish outlook is projected for today, further substantiated by the pair's position below the EMA50. It's imperative to note, however, that any inability to penetrate the 0.6400 barrier could interrupt this bearish narrative, prompting a price recovery.

Today's anticipated trading spectrum is demarcated by a support level at 0.6360 and resistance at 0.6445.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64015

Take Profit – 0.63639

Stop Loss – 0.64223

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$376/ -$208

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37/ -$20

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is demonstrating resilience around the 0.6400 juncture, initiating the session with an ascendant bias. It is attempting to distance itself from this benchmark, gearing up for a potential bullish surge with a tentative target in the vicinity of 0.6545.

Our analysis postulates a bullish orientation for today, corroborated by auspicious indications from the stochastic oscillator. Transcending the 0.6450 marker could further facilitate this upward trajectory. Conversely, any decline below the 0.6400 level might disrupt this bullish thesis, potentially reverting the pair to its prevailing bearish trend. For the day, we forecast a trading range delineated by a support level at 0.6380 and a resistance point at 0.6480.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.64058

Take Profit – 0.64876

Stop Loss – 0.63575

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$818/ -$483

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$81/ -$48

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair managed to extend its gaining streak and remained well bid around 0.6420 marks. However the reason for its upward rally can be tied to the China rolled out new measures over the weekend to draw investors back into its battered stock markets, which, along with the better-than-expected domestic data, provided a modest lift to the Australian Dollar (AUD) on the first day of a new week. Apart from this, a positive tone around the equity markets drags the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) away from its highest level since early June touched on Friday and offers additional support to the AUD/USD pair.

China's Market Measures and Domestic Data Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, China introduced new measures over the weekend to attract investors back to its struggling stock markets. This, coupled with better-than-expected domestic data, gave a slight boost to the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the new week began. Notably, China's finance ministry announced a reduction in the stamp duty on stock trading from 0.1% to 0.05%, the first decrease since 2008. Apart from this, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed a 0.5% rise in Retail Sales for July, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% increase and recovering from the previous month's 0.8% decline.

Consequently, this development holds the potential to positively influence the AUD/USD pair. China's market measures and the robust domestic data may enhance investor confidence in the Australian Dollar, potentially contributing to its strength against the US Dollar.

USD Trends, Fed Expectations, and the Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, the positive sentiment in the stock markets is pulling the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) down from its recent peak in early June, providing added support to the AUD/USD pair. However, the USD's decline is modest due to growing expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening its policies.

Investors are anticipating another 25 basis points rate hike before the year ends, a view reinforced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell's statement indicated that the Fed might need to further raise rates to manage persistent inflation concerns.

Consequently, this situation could impact the AUD/USD pair. The upbeat equity market mood and the corrective USD dip might enhance the Australian Dollar's attractiveness, potentially causing it to gain strength against the US Dollar. Nevertheless, the USD's potential for more rate hikes could limit the AUD's gains.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair is demonstrating resilience around the 0.6400 juncture, initiating the session with an ascendant bias. It is attempting to distance itself from this benchmark, gearing up for a potential bullish surge with a tentative target in the vicinity of 0.6545.

Our analysis postulates a bullish orientation for today, corroborated by auspicious indications from the stochastic oscillator. Transcending the 0.6450 marker could further facilitate this upward trajectory. Conversely, any decline below the 0.6400 level might disrupt this bullish thesis, potentially reverting the pair to its prevailing bearish trend. For the day, we forecast a trading range delineated by a support level at 0.6380 and a resistance point at 0.6480.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair maintains its fluctuation around the 0.6400 level, encountering challenges in achieving a decisive breakthrough. It is worth noting that the stochastic indicator is once again indicating a loss of positive momentum.

This development is anticipated to contribute to propelling the price towards a successful breach of this level, subsequently extending the decline on both the intraday and short-term scales. It is important to highlight that our next identified target stands at 0.6310.

Consequently, our outlook continues to lean towards a bearish trajectory for the forthcoming period, provided the price remains stable below the 0.6440 threshold. The projected trading range for the day spans between the support at 0.6350 and the resistance at 0.6450.

In terms of the anticipated trend for today, a bearish sentiment prevails.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64343

Take Profit – 0.63331

Stop Loss – 0.65008

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1012/ -$665

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$101/ -$66

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair was unable to stop its losing streak and remained depressed around below 0.6400 mark. However, this decline can be attributed to the recent smaller rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), indicating limited support for the economy despite worries about the property market crisis. This uncertainty has left investors hesitant, leading to a decline in the riskier Australian Dollar. In the meantime, the weakening sentiment has also impacted markets, putting additional pressure on the AUD. Furthermore, the stronger US Dollar, supported by the potential for a Fed interest rate hike, was also contributing to the downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

US Dollar Strength and Factors Affecting AUD/USD Pair

The broad-based US dollar, tracked by the USD Index (DXY), is staying just below its highest level in over two months due to the Federal Reserve's likely plans to raise interest rates. However, the recent minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show they're focused on controlling inflation. Furthermore, the US economy is doing well, according to recent data, supporting the idea that the Fed might tighten policy more.

At the same time, the expectation that the US central bank will keep rates higher for a while is keeping US Treasury bond yields up and helping the US dollar. This suggests the AUD/USD pair will likely continue to fall. However, traders who are expecting a drop might not make big bets before the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Central bankers' comments there could cause a lot of ups and downs in the markets.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair maintains its fluctuation around the 0.6400 level, encountering challenges in achieving a decisive breakthrough. It is worth noting that the stochastic indicator is once again indicating a loss of positive momentum.

This development is anticipated to contribute to propelling the price towards a successful breach of this level, subsequently extending the decline on both the intraday and short-term scales. It is important to highlight that our next identified target stands at 0.6310.

Consequently, our outlook continues to lean towards a bearish trajectory for the forthcoming period, provided the price remains stable below the 0.6440 threshold. The projected trading range for the day spans between the support at 0.6350 and the resistance at 0.6450.

In terms of the anticipated trend for today, a bearish sentiment prevails.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair extended its eighth consecutive day of decline due to disappointing Australian employment data and overall market caution. This led to a 0.39% drop, bringing the pair to 0.6367. The weak jobs data has raised concerns about potential interest rate changes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in their September 5 meeting. Moreover, concerns about China's economy and the hawkish stance of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are further pressuring AUD/USD prices.

Challenging Australian Job Market Data Impacts AUD/USD Pair

According to the recent info from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia's job market struggled in July. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, exceeding both expectations and the previous month's 3.5%. Employment Change was also disappointing, with a loss of 14.6K jobs, in contrast to the anticipated 15K increase and June's 32.6K additions. Detailed data showed a decline of 24.2K Full-Time Employment roles, while Part-Time Employment grew by 9.6K. In response, the AUD/USD pair declined by 0.39% to trade at 0.6367, indicating concerns about future decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Hawkish FOMC Minutes and Positive US Data Weigh on AUD/USD

Furthermore, the recent hawkish tone from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes is also putting pressure on the AUD/USD prices. The minutes showed that even though some policymakers disagreed, most of them leaned towards dealing with the rising prices. This has added to the concerns affecting the AUD/USD.s

In the meantime, positive data from the US and higher returns on US Treasury bonds are also affecting the AUD/USD negatively. For example, the US Industrial Production surprised everyone by growing 1.0% in July, much more than expected. This, along with better Capacity Utilization, Building Permits, and Housing Starts numbers, has strengthened the US Dollar, making it tougher for the AUD/USD pair.

Multiple Concerns Impact AUD/USD Amid Global Developments

Apart from this, concerns are rising due to a drop in China's housing prices since June. This adds to worries about a potential bond market issue in China as a major real estate company, Country Garden, faces difficulties in paying its bond debts. Despite efforts from Chinese policymakers to reassure the economy, market response has been limited, raising concerns about China's economic health. This is putting pressure on the AUD/USD price.

Adding to the negative sentiment is the fact that Fitch Ratings, a global rating agency, lowered economic growth expectations for 10 developed countries, which is also contributing to the downward movement of the AUD/USD price.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

Following the recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the nation's unemployment rate for July experienced an uptick, settling at 3.7%, a rise from June's 3.5%. This data revealed a growth in the number of unemployed individuals by 36,000. Additionally, the participation rate, representing the percentage of those aged 15 and older either employed or actively seeking employment, witnessed a slight dip of 0.1 percentage points, closing at 66.7%. This macroeconomic development has cast a shadow over the AUD/USD pair.

Professionally examining the trajectory of the AUD/USD pair, it has adeptly met our anticipated target at 0.6400. Initiating today's trading with a bearish undertone, the pair not only breached the 0.6400 level but also affirmed the dominating bearish trend, hinting at a potential movement towards our forthcoming bearish target set at 0.6310.

Reinforcing this downtrend, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) lends its weight behind the envisaged bearish momentum. However, this sentiment will hold its validity contingent upon the pair's ability to maintain its position below the 0.6400 threshold.

For today's trading landscape, we foresee the pair oscillating within a range, demarcated by the 0.6310 support level and the 0.6420 resistance level.

Daily Price Outlook

Following the recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the nation's unemployment rate for July experienced an uptick, settling at 3.7%, a rise from June's 3.5%. This data revealed a growth in the number of unemployed individuals by 36,000. Additionally, the participation rate, representing the percentage of those aged 15 and older either employed or actively seeking employment, witnessed a slight dip of 0.1 percentage points, closing at 66.7%. This macroeconomic development has cast a shadow over the AUD/USD pair.

Professionally examining the trajectory of the AUD/USD pair, it has adeptly met our anticipated target at 0.6400. Initiating today's trading with a bearish undertone, the pair not only breached the 0.6400 level but also affirmed the dominating bearish trend, hinting at a potential movement towards our forthcoming bearish target set at 0.6310.

Reinforcing this downtrend, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) lends its weight behind the envisaged bearish momentum. However, this sentiment will hold its validity contingent upon the pair's ability to maintain its position below the 0.6400 threshold.

For today's trading landscape, we foresee the pair oscillating within a range, demarcated by the 0.6310 support level and the 0.6420 resistance level.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64003

Take Profit – 0.62815

Stop Loss – 0.64833

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1188/ -$830

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$118/ -$83

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair demonstrates an increased bearish inclination, nearing our projected target of 0.6040. We anticipate sustained downward momentum that might breach the stated level, setting the stage for further declines, potentially towards the 0.6310 mark.

Given these factors, a bearish trajectory is projected for both intraday and short-term intervals, underpinned by the negative influence of the EMA50. It's imperative to note that maintaining a position below 0.6550 is crucial to perpetuate the predicted bearish trend.

Today, the forecasted trading bracket spans from a support at 0.6380 to a resistance at 0.6490.  

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64604

Take Profit – 0.64138

Stop Loss – 0.64920

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.45

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$466/ -$316

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$46/ -$31

Daily Price Outlook

Regarding 0.6457, the intraday sentiment is again skewed downwards. Following the breach, the descent from 0.7156 to the 100% projection level of 0.6457 from 0.6894 to 0.6195 will persist. As long as resistance remains at 0.6738, any potential recovery will maintain a slight downward risk for the immediate future.

During the Asian trading session on Wednesday morning, the AUD/USD pair remains subdued at 0.6555. Reports concerning the US-China relationship continue to strengthen the prevailing inclination towards purchasing US Dollars.

However, it's worth noting that the US government intends to focus solely on Chinese businesses generating over 50% of their revenue from quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI). According to Bloomberg, an executive order by US President Joe Biden regarding this ban is expected this week.

Recent developments between the world's two largest economies might benefit the Australian Dollar (AUD) acting as a liaison for China while adversely affecting the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair closed beneath the 0.6550 benchmark yesterday, further solidifying the forecasted bearish trajectory for the imminent timeframe, with an eye on the 0.6400 mark as the subsequent pivotal target.

The prevailing bullish undertone, as indicated by the Stochastic's upbeat momentum, necessitates the pair to remain under the 0.6550 and 0.6600 thresholds to ensure the continuation of the anticipated bearish momentum. Surpassing these benchmarks could act as a catalyst for the pair's resurgence, initiating a potential rally towards the significant resistance set at 0.6665.

For today, the anticipated trading spectrum is projected to span from a support level of 0.6490 to a resistance of 0.6590. The day's overarching trend is expected to be bullish.