Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair has decisively surpassed the 146.90 threshold, signaling a resurgence of the primary bullish trajectory. This movement is in line with the bullish channel delineated on the chart, enhancing the probability of eclipsing the recent peak of 147.86 and steering towards the 149.00 region as the forthcoming key target.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) lends positive reinforcement to the pair, underscoring the anticipated upward trend in subsequent sessions. However, it's crucial to note that a breach below the 146.90 mark, followed by a drop past 146.35, could thwart the projected ascent and redirect the pair back to a corrective bearish path.

For today, the trading spectrum is projected to oscillate between a support at 146.70 and resistance at 148.20.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 146.677

Take Profit – 147.955

Stop Loss – 145.774

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1278/ -$903

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$127/ -$90

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair extended its upward rally and attracted more buying interest, pushing it above the recent levels. However, this rally can be linked to the increased demand for the US Dollar, which is providing strong support to the USD/JPY pair. It's worth noting that the upward movement is mainly driven by the emergence of USD buying, acting as a significant tailwind for the pair. Across the ocean, the worries about intervention and a cautious market mood support the Japanese yen (JPY) and limit gains for the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY Reacts to BoJ Governor's Comments and Policy Outlook

The USD/JPY pair initially reacted positively to Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish comments, but this optimism faded quickly. Many in the market believe that the Japanese central bank will maintain its current policies until next summer. Ueda mentioned the option of ending negative interest rates if he's confident in rising prices and wages. However, Hiroshige Seko of Japan's ruling party prefers loose monetary policies. Seko noted that Ueda believes policy changes will only happen after reaching the 2% inflation target. This eases concerns about an immediate BoJ policy shift, and, coupled with some US Dollar (USD) buying, supports the USD/JPY pair.

Factors Influencing USD/JPY Pair's Direction

Apart from this, the Federal Reserve's potential future tightening of policies is boosting US Treasury bond yields and increasing demand for the US dollar (USD). Although the Fed is expected to pause its rate hikes in September, markets still think there might be one more 25 bps increase in 2023. The strong US economic data and persistent inflation suggest the Fed may maintain higher interest rates. Moving on, the upcoming US CPI report on Wednesday will be closely watched for clues on the Fed's future rate hike plans, influencing the USD/JPY pair's near-term direction.

Hence, this news is likely to exert upward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. The Federal Reserve's potential tightening of policies, coupled with expectations of another rate increase in 2023, is boosting demand for the US dollar (USD). (edited)

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair exhibited pronounced bearish activity yesterday, breaking through the 146.55 mark to touch 145.90. However, it has since oscillated around the initial level, influenced by the fading positive momentum of the stochastic indicator. Additionally, the EMA50 exerts downward pressure on the price.

Given these dynamics, we are inclined to forecast continued bearish tendencies in forthcoming sessions. It's imperative to note that our subsequent primary target stands at 145.55. Any breach beyond 146.90 would negate the anticipated decline, potentially realigning the pair with its primary bullish trajectory. Today, we project a trading range between a support level of 145.80 and resistance at 147.40.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair encountered a brief downtrend, touching the 147.00 barrier, before regaining momentum in an attempt to continue its anticipated bullish trajectory in both the intraday and short-term scopes.

The positive forecast remains grounded, bolstered by the EMA50 which underpins the price. It's essential to note that a breach of the 146.55 level might instigate a temporary bearish correction before the price ascends once more.

For today, the projected trading spectrum is demarcated between the support at 147.00 and the resistance at 148.40

USD/JPY - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 147.030

Take Profit – 149.144

Stop Loss – 145.713

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$211/ -$131

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$21/ -$13

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading session on Thursday, the USD/JPY currency pair continued its upward movement, reaching levels not seen since November 2022, trading within the range of 147.80 to 147.85. This uptrend is primarily attributed to the strength of the US dollar, which is currently near its highest point in six months. However, the driving factor behind this strength is the growing anticipation of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

On the other side, there are concerns about potential currency intervention by Japanese authorities, and overall market sentiment remains cautious. This caution is leading investors to seek the safety of the Japanese yen (JPY), acting as a safe-haven currency. As a result, the substantial advances in the USD/JPY pair are somewhat limited.

Strong US Economic Data Boosts USD/JPY Pair

The broad-based US dollar is gaining traction and remained strong, reaching a six-month peak following the release of encouraging US economic data. This robust performance is notably boosting the USD/JPY pair. The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August exceeded even the most optimistic predictions, surging to 54.5, marking the highest level since February. A deeper look into the report reveals an increase in new orders and businesses reporting higher prices, indicative of a resilient US economy and persistent inflation pressures.

These developments have boosted the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) implementing an interest rate hike in November. Hence, the expectation that the Fed will maintain higher rates for an extended period is underpinning elevated US Treasury bond yields and providing further support to the US dollar and contributes to the USDJPY pair gains.

JPY Underperforms Due to BoJ's Dovish Stance and Intervention Fears

Across the ocean, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is struggling due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) persistent commitment to loose monetary policies, which discourages bullish positions on the USD/JPY pair. There's also concern that Japanese authorities might intervene in the forex markets to strengthen the JPY. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, issued a warning about the JPY's depreciation and the possibility of measures against speculative activities.

This, along with a cautious equity market sentiment, boosts the JPY's safe-haven appeal and limits USD/JPY pair gains. In the meantime, investors seems worried about rising borrowing costs and a slowdown in China, reducing appetite for riskier assets.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair encountered a brief downtrend, touching the 147.00 barrier, before regaining momentum in an attempt to continue its anticipated bullish trajectory in both the intraday and short-term scopes.

The positive forecast remains grounded, bolstered by the EMA50 which underpins the price. It's essential to note that a breach of the 146.55 level might instigate a temporary bearish correction before the price ascends once more.

For today, the projected trading spectrum is demarcated between the support at 147.00 and the resistance at 148.40

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair has opened today's trading session on an upbeat note, successfully surpassing the 146.55 mark and making endeavors to consolidate above this level. This movement suggests a potential cessation of the recent bearish correction, with the pair positioning to realign with its prevailing bullish trajectory. The anticipated upward targets are set initially at 147.55, progressing to 148.40 as a subsequent focal point.

The EMA50 underpins the pair, bolstering the bullish perspective. This optimistic outlook will persist unless there's a decline below the 146.55 level, further intensified by a drop beneath the 145.95 threshold. For the day, the trading range is projected between a support at 146.10 and resistance at 147.60.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 146.626

Take Profit – 147.950

Stop Loss – 145.835

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$132/ -$79

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$13/ -$7

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair continued its upward trajectory for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, maintaining its positive stance. During the early European session, the pair surged above the mid-146.00s, presently hovering near 146.72, marking a 0.16% gain for the day. Several key factors contributed to this upward momentum. Firstly, Japanese Household Spending witnessed a significant decline, which weighed on the Japanese yen's strength, thereby bolstering the US dollar's position.

Secondly, the mixed US employment data created a sense of uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's tightening policy, causing market participants to revise their expectations. Thirdly, upbeat manufacturing PMI data added to the dollar's strength, further supporting the USD/JPY pair.

Investors are now anticipating coming economic releases, including US Factory Orders, US ISM Services PMI, and Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which may provide additional insights into the currency pair's future movements.

Positive Impact of Weak Japanese Household Spending on USD/JPY Pair

According to recent data, Japanese household spending experienced its sharpest decline in almost two and a half years, with a 5.0% year-on-year drop in July, surpassing the expected 2.5% decrease. This marked the sixth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, Japanese Monetary Base data for August showed a 1.2% year-on-year increase, a shift from the previous 1.3% drop.

However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is maintaining its loose monetary policy and moving away from yield curve control, with BOJ Board member Toyoaki Nakamura emphasizing the need for more time before considering monetary tightening. However, the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan may limit potential downsides for the USD/JPY pair.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki mentioned that while sudden currency fluctuations are undesirable, there is no current sign of market intervention to support the weakening yen, although they will closely monitor currency movements. Hence, Japan's weak household spending and the BOJ's loose monetary policy have positively impacted the USD/JPY currency pair, contributing to its ongoing rise, supported by policy divergence and a lack of yen-supportive interventions.

Impact on USD/JPY Pair Amid Mixed Economic Data

Apart from this, the mixed US economic data from last week has led to expectations of a more cautious stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is affecting the USD/JPY pair. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 93% likelihood that interest rates will remain unchanged in September, with a 38% chance of a rate hike in November.

However, August's Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded expectations at 187K, but the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.8%. US Manufacturing PMI also outperformed predictions at 47.6. Today, the US dollar's gains are limited as Wall Street observes Labor Day.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has opened today's trading session on an upbeat note, successfully surpassing the 146.55 mark and making endeavors to consolidate above this level. This movement suggests a potential cessation of the recent bearish correction, with the pair positioning to realign with its prevailing bullish trajectory. The anticipated upward targets are set initially at 147.55, progressing to 148.40 as a subsequent focal point.

The EMA50 underpins the pair, bolstering the bullish perspective. This optimistic outlook will persist unless there's a decline below the 146.55 level, further intensified by a drop beneath the 145.95 threshold. For the day, the trading range is projected between a support at 146.10 and resistance at 147.60.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair has successfully breached the 145.75 mark and maintained its stance beneath this level, bolstering the anticipated bearish inclination on an intraday scale. The trajectory suggests a potential movement towards our primary target set at 144.55.

Current dynamics, underscored by the negative pressure exerted by the EMA50, fortify the likelihood of reaching the projected target. However, it's pivotal to underscore that for the bearish momentum to persist, the pair needs to remain anchored below the 146.55 benchmark.

Today's trading spectrum is delineated between a support threshold at 144.60 and resistance positioned at 146.00, with the prevailing sentiment skewed towards the bearish side.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 145.706

Take Profit – 144.968

Stop Loss – 146.273

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$738/ -$567

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$73/ -$56

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair made an attempt to breach the 146.55 level yesterday; however, it encountered a strong downward reversal, ultimately reaching our initial awaited target at 145.75. At this point, it discovered significant support, setting the stage for a potential break of this level. Such a breach would serve as confirmation for the continuation of the prevailing bearish bias, guiding the price towards the subsequent downside target at 144.55.

Consequently, our stance maintains the bearish outlook for the forthcoming period. It's important to highlight that surpassing the 146.55 level would halt the projected decline and propel the price back into the realm of the primary bullish trajectory. The projected trading range for today is expected to fluctuate between the support level at 145.40 and the resistance at 146.95.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 145.738

Take Profit – 147.339

Stop Loss – 145.117

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1601/ -$621

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$160/ -$62

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has suceeded to extend its upward stance and risen to around 146.00 in early European trading, recovering from recent losses. However, this upward trend is partly due to mixed inflation data in Japan, which is keeping the Japanese Yen (JPY) under pressure. Furthermore, the JPY is facing concerns of immediate government intervention and a more dovish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Apart from this, the USD/JPY pair has been boosted by strong US employment data, higher US Treasury yields, and uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Reserve's September policy tightening. These factors collectively contribute to the recent strength in the USD/JPY pair.

Tokyo's Lower-than-Expected Inflation and Its Impact on USD/JPY

According to recent data, consumer prices in Tokyo, Japan, rose less than anticipated in August. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 2.9% annually, falling short of the expected 3.0% and down from 3.2% in the previous report. Meanwhile, Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) remained consistent at 4% whereas Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) declined to 2.8% against the market consensus of 2.9%. The index printed the 3% figure in July.

The lower-than-expected consumer price growth in Tokyo could weaken the Japanese yen. If inflation continues to lag, it may prompt the Bank of Japan to maintain its accommodative policies, potentially leading to a stronger USD/JPY pair as the US dollar gains relative strength.

Factors Pressuring Japanese Yen (JPY) and Impact on USD/JPY Pair

Moreover, the Japanese Yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) more cautious approach. The BoJ stands alone among central banks with its negative interest rates policy. Policymakers also stress the need for sustainable wage increases before they'll consider scaling back their substantial monetary support. These factors weigh on the USD/JPY pair, potentially favoring the US dollar.

USD Strength Spurs USD/JPY Pair Amid Fed and BoJ Influences

The broad-based US dollar regained its strength and rose sharply on the day. The US dollar, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is currently around 104.20 before Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair was also influenced by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Whereas, the strong US jobless claims data and mixed sentiment about US Federal Reserve policy support the USD/JPY rise. Plus, the pair benefits from higher US Treasury yields and concerns about China's economy affecting export ties with the US. This blend of factors contributes to the USD/JPY pair's recent strength.

USD/JPY - Technical analysis

The USD/JPY pair experienced a notable upward surge in the previous session, surpassing the 145.00 mark and currently reaching the 146.00 barrier. This movement has effectively halted the corrective bearish scenario, revitalizing the prospect of the primary bullish trend. The focus now shifts towards testing the recently established peak at 146.55, marking a forthcoming target. It is worth highlighting that a successful breach of this level would propel the price further, aiming for extended gains at 147.00 followed by 147.90.

Hence, the prevailing sentiment remains inclined towards a bullish bias today. However, it's crucial to acknowledge that a failure to surpass the 146.25 threshold could prompt a decline. This scenario could materialize after the formation of a third lower high, potentially guiding the price back to the corrective bearish trajectory.

The projected trading range for the current session is bounded by the support level at 145.30 and the resistance at 147.00.

Overall, the anticipated trend for today is bullish, but bearish below 146.500. 

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair experienced a notable upward surge in the previous session, surpassing the 145.00 mark and currently reaching the 146.00 barrier. This movement has effectively halted the corrective bearish scenario, revitalizing the prospect of the primary bullish trend. The focus now shifts towards testing the recently established peak at 146.55, marking a forthcoming target. It is worth highlighting that a successful breach of this level would propel the price further, aiming for extended gains at 147.00 followed by 147.90.

Hence, the prevailing sentiment remains inclined towards a bullish bias today. However, it's crucial to acknowledge that a failure to surpass the 146.25 threshold could prompt a decline. This scenario could materialize after the formation of a third lower high, potentially guiding the price back to the corrective bearish trajectory.

The projected trading range for the current session is bounded by the support level at 145.30 and the resistance at 147.00.

Overall, the anticipated trend for today is bullish, but bearish below 146.500.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 146.436

Take Profit – 145.524

Stop Loss – 146.836

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$912/ -$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$91/ -$40