Daily Price Outlook

During the European session, the USD/JPY currency pair made a modest retreat as it tried to break the important 150.00 resistance level on Thursday. This move aligns with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which saw some profit-taking after hitting a fresh 10-month high at 106.80. Early in the Asian session, USD/JPY rose to 149.50, benefitting from higher Treasury yields, positive US economic data, and a cautious mood among investors. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 106.65, its highest point since November. Notably, the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.60%, its loftiest level since 2007.

US Durable Goods Orders Rebound, Impacting USD and JPY

According to the US Census Bureau's report on Wednesday, Durable Goods Orders in August rebounded, increasing by 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) after a 5.6% drop in the previous report, defying expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline. Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation, also performed better than expected, rising by 0.4% m/m against a forecasted 0.1% increase. Moreover, Core capital goods orders saw a notable rise of 0.9%, surpassing the market consensus of 0% following a previous 0.4% drop.

This data prompted a stronger US Dollar (USD) performance, weighing on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Investors remain cautious amid concerns of prolonged high-interest rates and a potential US government shutdown, although Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech could moderate the USD's gains if it takes on a less hawkish tone.

Potential Bank of Japan Intervention Could Strengthen Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen might get stronger due to potential intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has emphasized that they are ready to take action if the foreign exchange market becomes too volatile. He also mentioned that they are closely watching currency movements. In Japan, Suzuki expressed his worry about the currency exchange rate and stressed the need for quick action. This cautious stance from Suzuki has made traders cautious as well, especially those considering bullish positions on the USD/JPY pair.

Looking ahead, investros are keeping an eye on important economic indicators this week, such as the US weekly Jobless Claims, second-quarter GDP revision, and Pending Home Sales data. At the end of the week, focus will shift to the Core PCE Price Index, a key measure of consumer inflation favored by the Fed, set to be released on Friday.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has sustained its upward trajectory, approaching our newly-set target of 150.00. This momentum is consistently underpinned by the EMA50, amplifying the prospects of an enduring bullish stance in both intraday and short-term contexts. It's worth noting that breaching the aforementioned level could further propel the bullish momentum, targeting successive key levels at 151.00 and subsequently 151.85.

Our forecast remains bullish for the forthcoming sessions, contingent upon the pair not descending and sustaining below the 148.40 mark.

Today's projected trading boundaries are delineated between a support at 148.70 and a resistance at 150.20.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair has sustained its upward trajectory, approaching our newly-set target of 150.00. This momentum is consistently underpinned by the EMA50, amplifying the prospects of an enduring bullish stance in both intraday and short-term contexts. It's worth noting that breaching the aforementioned level could further propel the bullish momentum, targeting successive key levels at 151.00 and subsequently 151.85.

Entry Price – Buy Limit 149.128

Take Profit – 150.179

Stop Loss – 148.692

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1051/ -$436

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$105/ -$43

Our forecast remains bullish for the forthcoming sessions, contingent upon the pair not descending and sustaining below the 148.40 mark.

Today's projected trading boundaries are delineated between a support at 148.70 and a resistance at 150.20.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 149.128

Take Profit – 150.179

Stop Loss – 148.692

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1051/ -$436

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$105/ -$43

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair currently hovers near the 149.00 mark, with the stochastic indicator showing emerging positive convergence, suggesting potential upward momentum in the coming sessions. Our subsequent target for this bullish trend is set at 150.00.

The ongoing bullish inclination is bolstered by the EMA50's persistent positive influence. This bullish perspective is contingent upon the price maintaining its stance above 148.25.

For today, the anticipated trading parameters are anchored between a support at 148.30 and a resistance at 149.80, with the predominant market sentiment leaning bullish.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 148.875

Take Profit – 149.567

Stop Loss – 148.431

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$692/ -$444

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$69/ -$44

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Tuesday, the USD/JPY currency pair has been gaining traction and is trading near 148.90, which is close to an 11-month high. However, the reason for its surge can be attributed to the strengthening of the US Dollar, driven by cautious market sentiment and higher US Treasury yields.

Investors are considering the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on the trajectory of interest rates, and this is factored into their trading decisions. Hence, the anticipation of higher interest rates in the US is bolstering the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY Currency Pair Poised for Strength Amid Surging US Dollar and High Yields

The broad-based US dollar, as represented by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has been surging above 106.00, hitting its highest point since November. However, this uptrend was mainly driven by the strong performance of US Treasury yields. Specifically, the yield on the 10-year US bond note has reached 4.56%, a level not seen since October 2007. This increase reflects the expectation of sustained high interest rates, underpinned by the resilience of the US economy.

In the meantime, the US Federal Reserve has signaled its readiness to implement further interest rate hikes if necessary, bolstering the dollar's strength more. Hence, this action is likely to favor a bullish outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair.

Challenges for Japanese Yen (JPY) Amid BoJ Policy and Economic Choices

On the flip side, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is facing challenges as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) sticks with its super-low monetary policy to help the economy reach a 2% inflation goal. This suggests the central bank is not rushing to reduce its massive stimulus efforts. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki recently discussed Japan's economic situation, highlighting a crucial choice between boosting consumption or encouraging wage growth.

Yoshitaka Shindo, Japan's new Economy Minister, stressed that it's not easy to foresee whether just spending more money by the government will make prices go up. He also highlighted that it's crucial for the currency to move steadily in line with the country's economic basics. Furthermore, Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials underscored that they're willing to wait and keep using strategies like making more money available, which could make the Yen less strong and benefit the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is persistently advancing, currently nearing our anticipated target of 149.00. We foresee this bullish momentum extending beyond this level, potentially aiming for the significant milestone at 150.00.

Underpinned by the EMA50's support, our bullish outlook remains intact for the foreseeable future. It's essential to emphasize that sustaining this upward trajectory necessitates the pair remaining above the 147.90 mark.

Today's projected trading boundaries lie between a support at 148.30 and a resistance at 149.80, with an overall bullish sentiment prevailing.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair is persistently advancing, currently nearing our anticipated target of 149.00. We foresee this bullish momentum extending beyond this level, potentially aiming for the significant milestone at 150.00.

Underpinned by the EMA50's support, our bullish outlook remains intact for the foreseeable future. It's essential to emphasize that sustaining this upward trajectory necessitates the pair remaining above the 147.90 mark.

Today's projected trading boundaries lie between a support at 148.30 and a resistance at 149.80, with an overall bullish sentiment prevailing.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 148.779

Take Profit – 149.561

Stop Loss – 148.352

Risk to Reward – 1: 8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$782/ -$427

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$78/ -$42

Daily Price Outlook

During early European trading on Thursday, the USD/JPY pair surged above the 148.00 mark, bouncing back from its low of 147.47. However, the reason for its upward movement was mainly fueled by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance in the Wednesday's policy meeting. Besides this, traders seems cautious to place any strong position due to verbal intervention from Japanese authorities earlier in the week. Although the USD is showing strength, these interventions may impact its further rise against the Japanese Yen.

Fed's Steady Rates and "Higher for Longer" Outlook

As we mentioned above, the Federal Reserve held steady on interest rates at their September meeting, maintaining them at 5.25-5.50%. They are growing more confident about taming inflation without harming the economy or causing major job losses. According to their latest quarterly forecasts, there might be one more rate hike this year, bringing the range to 5.50% to 5.75%. Furthermore, they expect rates to remain quite high through 2024, more than previously thought.

Moreover, the Fed updated its Summary of Projections (SEP), showing that they anticipate the interest rate hitting 5.1% by the end of 2024, up from the previous estimate of 4.6%. Hence, this "higher for longer" rate outlook has given the US Dollar a boost against other currencies.

Market Highlights: Upcoming Events and Potential USD/JPY Opportunities

Besides this, the highlight for Friday is the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision. It is worth noting that the BoJ is expected to stick with its -0.1% short-term interest rate target and its 10-year bond yield target at around 0%. They have made it clear that they will not consider changes to monetary policy until local wage and inflation data align with their projections.

Meanwhile, traders are being careful because they're concerned about verbal interventions. A former top currency diplomat, Takehiko Nakao, told Reuters that Japanese authorities might step in to help the yen if it gets weaker. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, has also stressed the need to act quickly regarding currency movements. As a result, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is under pressure to weaken, which is good for the USD/JPY pair.

Looking forward, investors will keep their eyes on upcoming events. Notably, thursday will bringsome key economic data, such as US weekly Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed report, and Existing Home Sales. On Friday, all attention will be on the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting decision. Traders will closely watch these events for potential trading opportunities involving the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has successfully breached the 147.86 mark and established a daily close above it, enhancing the prospects for sustained bullish momentum in forthcoming sessions. We anticipate a continued upward trajectory, targeting the 149.00 level as our subsequent milestone.

The bullish outlook is further corroborated by the EMA50, which underpins the price, coupled with the favorable convergence signal currently exhibited by the stochastic indicator. It is imperative to maintain a position above the 147.50 level to realize the projected targets.

For today's trading dynamics, we forecast a range defined by a support at 147.60 and a resistance at 149.10, with the prevailing sentiment tilting bullish.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair has successfully breached the 147.86 mark and established a daily close above it, enhancing the prospects for sustained bullish momentum in forthcoming sessions. We anticipate a continued upward trajectory, targeting the 149.00 level as our subsequent milestone.

The bullish outlook is further corroborated by the EMA50, which underpins the price, coupled with the favorable convergence signal currently exhibited by the stochastic indicator. It is imperative to maintain a position above the 147.50 level to realize the projected targets.

For today's trading dynamics, we forecast a range defined by a support at 147.60 and a resistance at 149.10, with the prevailing sentiment tilting bullish.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 148

Take Profit – 149.040

Stop Loss – 147.350

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1040/ -$650

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$104/ -$65

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair demonstrates consistent movement around the 147.86 mark, encountering challenges in surpassing it. Notably, the stochastic oscillator is now exhibiting a positive convergence, potentially propelling the pair to breach the aforementioned level and aim for our subsequent target at 149.00.

The prevailing bullish channel underpins the anticipated upward trajectory, contingent upon the price's ability to remain stable above the 147.30 threshold. For today, we project a trading range between the support level of 147.00 and a resistance at 148.70.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Stop 148.000

Take Profit – 149.040

Stop Loss – 147.286

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1040/ -$714

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$104/ -$71

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair witnessed some buying interest on Tuesday but has been struggling to make significant gains. It is currently trading around 147.70, up just slightly for the day. Notably, the pair reached its highest level since November 2022 last week but has not been able to maintain that momentum.

However, traders seems cautious and staying on the sidelines as they await important central bank events this week, particularly the Federal Reserve (FOMC) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decisions. These events are seen as crucial, and investors are holding off on making big moves until they have more clarity on central bank policies.

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 147.68 level and consolidating in the range between 147.50 - 147.93.

Fed Expected to Maintain Cautious Stance: Impact on USD/JPY

It's worth noting that the Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on Wednesday, and most people expect them to keep things as they are. However, the market believes that the Fed will stick to its more cautious approach, keeping interest rates relatively high for an extended period. This expectation is keeping US Treasury bond yields up, which, in turn, is helping the US Dollar (USD) stay strong. As a result, the USD/JPY pair is benefiting, with the USD holding its ground after a recent dip from a six-month high. This all suggests ongoing support for the USD/JPY currency pair.

USD/JPY Traders Cautious Amid BoJ Speculation

Another factor affecting the USD/JPY currency pair's gains is the speculation surrounding a potential shift in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish stance. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently hinted in an interview with Yomiuri newspaper that they might consider ending their negative interest rate policy if they become confident that prices and wages will continue rising steadily. This statement has raised expectations that the BoJ could gradually move away from its ultra-loose monetary policy, creating uncertainty in the market and causing some traders to hold back on placing bullish bets on the USD/JPY pair.

Looking forward, all eyes are on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting set for Friday. Investors await signals about the BoJ's plans regarding its negative interest rate policy, which could significantly impact the Japanese Yen and reshape the direction of the USD/JPY currency pair. Moreover, US housing market data like Building Permits and Housing Starts will also offer short-term trading opportunities.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair demonstrates consistent movement around the 147.86 mark, encountering challenges in surpassing it. Notably, the stochastic oscillator is now exhibiting a positive convergence, potentially propelling the pair to breach the aforementioned level and aim for our subsequent target at 149.00.

The prevailing bullish channel underpins the anticipated upward trajectory, contingent upon the price's ability to remain stable above the 147.30 threshold. For today, we project a trading range between the support level of 147.00 and a resistance at 148.70.

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian session on Thursday, the USD/JPY pair faced selling pressure, breaking its two-day winning streak and sliding to around 147.75 after hitting a weekly high. However, the decline can be attributed to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will shift away from its ultra-easy monetary policy, boosting the Japanese Yen (JPY) and weighing on the pair. Furthermore, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate-hike plans is leading to US Dollar selling, further contributing to the pair's downward movement.

BoJ Policy Shift Boosts JPY Strength

It is important to note that the Japanese Yen is gaining strength due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will move away from its super-easy monetary policy. This is putting pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. It should be noted that people in the market are now thinking that the central bank might stop its policy of controlling interest rates and negative rates as early as this year. This came after the BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments over the weekend. He hinted that they might raise interest rates if they're confident that prices and wages will keep rising. This caused Japanese government bond yields to go up, supporting the JPY and contributing the USD/JPY currency pair.

Market Uncertainty Impacts USD/JPY Pair

Across the ocean, the ongoing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's future interest rate hikes is causing some US Dollar selling, which is affecting the USD/JPY pair. However, the recent US consumer inflation data suggests the Fed will keep rates steady at its upcoming meeting. Notably, inflation remains a concern, leaving the possibility of another rate increase by year-end. Market pricing suggests a greater than 50% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in either November or December. This could stop USD bears from aggressive selling and help limit losses for the USD/JPY pair.

Looking forward, traders will keep thier eyes on key US economic reports, including Weekly Jobless Claims, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and monthly Retail Sales. These releases could provide new momentum for the USD/JPY currency pair.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has decisively surpassed the 146.90 threshold, signaling a resurgence of the primary bullish trajectory. This movement is in line with the bullish channel delineated on the chart, enhancing the probability of eclipsing the recent peak of 147.86 and steering towards the 149.00 region as the forthcoming key target.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) lends positive reinforcement to the pair, underscoring the anticipated upward trend in subsequent sessions. However, it's crucial to note that a breach below the 146.90 mark, followed by a drop past 146.35, could thwart the projected ascent and redirect the pair back to a corrective bearish path.

For today, the trading spectrum is projected to oscillate between a support at 146.70 and resistance at 148.20.