GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold trades at $2472.710, up 0.27%, amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.
- RSI at 70 indicates overbought conditions; potential pullback to immediate support at $2430.33.
- Bullish trend maintained above 50-day EMA at $2408.46; buy above $2455 with a stop loss at $2440.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2472.710, up 0.27%, as it continues to attract investors amid global economic uncertainties. The 4-hour chart shows gold hovering near key levels, with a pivot point set at $2490.00.
Immediate resistance is found at $2485.91, with subsequent resistance levels at $2510.78 and $2529.15. On the downside, immediate support is at $2430.33, followed by $2406.52 and $2381.37.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 70, indicating overbought conditions that may prompt a short-term pullback. However, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2408.46 suggests a bullish trend, with prices consistently trading above this level.
Given the current technical setup, traders might consider entering long positions above $2455, targeting a take profit level of $2490. A stop loss should be placed at $2440 to manage risk. This strategy capitalizes on the prevailing bullish momentum while guarding against potential downside risks.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2455
Take Profit – 2490
Stop Loss – 2440
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3500/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$350/ -$150
GOLD Price Analysis – July 17, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) regained its upward trend and drew strong bids around the 2,475.99 level, hitting an intraday high of 2,482.41. The upward rally can be attributed to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates as early as September.
This put downward pressure on the US dollar and contributed to the gains in the gold price
Impact of Fed Rate Cut Expectations on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has lost momentum as investors anticipate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in September.
This belief has kept US Treasury bond yields near multi-month lows, preventing the dollar from rebounding from its recent three-month low. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have signaled that inflation is nearing their target, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts.
This outlook has led traders to price in multiple rate cuts by year-end, boosting non-yielding assets like gold, which benefits from lower interest rates. US Retail Sales data for June showed no change, with upward revisions in May indicating consumer resilience, supporting economic growth prospects for the second quarter.
Therefore, the anticipation of Fed rate cuts, reinforced by near-record low Treasury yields and Federal Reserve officials' inflation outlook, has boosted gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets amid lower interest rates.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,465.89, showing slight market adjustments as it approaches significant resistance levels. The 4-hour chart reveals pivotal price points that are essential for traders to watch closely.
The pivot point is positioned at $2,478.20, indicating a critical level for potential market shifts. Immediate resistance is identified at $2,495.71, followed by $2,511.63 and $2,529.15. These resistance levels represent potential upward targets if the price manages to break above the pivot point, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend.
On the downside, immediate support is noted at $2,443.97, with further support levels at $2,419.30 and $2,397.41. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current trend and could serve as buffers against any sharp declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 75, indicating that the market is in an overbought condition. This suggests that there might be limited room for further upward movement before a potential correction.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2,397.94, which provides additional support and aligns with the lower support levels. This EMA acts as a significant indicator of the underlying trend and helps identify potential reversal points.
In conclusion, Gold remains bearish below the pivot point of $2,478.20. A break above this level could boost bullish sentiment, targeting the resistance levels of $2,495.71 and beyond.
Conversely, maintaining below the pivot point suggests continued downside risk. Traders are advised to sell below $2,478, with an entry price at this level, aiming for a take profit at $2,449 and setting a stop loss at $2,495.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,465.89 with a bearish outlook below $2,478.20.
- Immediate resistance levels are $2,495.71, $2,511.63, and $2,529.15.
- Immediate support levels are $2,443.97, $2,419.30, and $2,397.41.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,465.89, showing slight market adjustments as it approaches significant resistance levels. The 4-hour chart reveals pivotal price points that are essential for traders to watch closely.
The pivot point is positioned at $2,478.20, indicating a critical level for potential market shifts. Immediate resistance is identified at $2,495.71, followed by $2,511.63 and $2,529.15.
These resistance levels represent potential upward targets if the price manages to break above the pivot point, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend.
On the downside, immediate support is noted at $2,443.97, with further support levels at $2,419.30 and $2,397.41. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current trend and could serve as buffers against any sharp declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 75, indicating that the market is in an overbought condition. This suggests that there might be limited room for further upward movement before a potential correction.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2,397.94, which provides additional support and aligns with the lower support levels. This EMA acts as a significant indicator of the underlying trend and helps identify potential reversal points.
In conclusion, Gold remains bearish below the pivot point of $2,478.20. A break above this level could boost bullish sentiment, targeting the resistance levels of $2,495.71 and beyond.
Conversely, maintaining below the pivot point suggests continued downside risk. Traders are advised to sell below $2,478, with an entry price at this level, aiming for a take profit at $2,449 and setting a stop loss at $2,495.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2478
Take Profit – 2449
Stop Loss – 2495
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2900/ -$1700
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$290/ -$170
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold (XAU/USD) up 0.19%, trading at $2,437.32, with bullish momentum.
- Immediate resistance levels: $2,442.50, $2,453.71, $2,466.69; support at $2,419.84, $2,403.30.
- RSI at 69; 50-day EMA at $2,403.58 indicates ongoing bullish trend.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently priced at $2,437.32, showing an increase of 0.19%. The 4-hour chart reveals critical price levels, with the pivot point at $2,445. Immediate resistance is found at $2,442.50, with further resistance at $2,453.71 and $2,466.69.
On the downside, immediate support is situated at $2,419.84, followed by $2,403.30 and $2,391.59.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 69, indicating that gold is nearing overbought territory, suggesting that traders should monitor for potential signs of a pullback. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2,403.58, supporting the ongoing bullish trend.
Gold's recent performance has been buoyed by market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. These expectations have kept U.S. Treasury yields depressed, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
The metal's current bullish trend is further reinforced by global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, which typically drive investors towards safe-haven assets.
Traders looking to enter the market should consider buying above $2,430, targeting a take-profit level at $2,445, while setting a stop-loss at $2,422 to manage potential downside risks. Maintaining these strategic levels is crucial as it allows traders to capitalize on the prevailing bullish momentum while mitigating potential losses.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2430
Take Profit – 2445
Stop Loss – 2422
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$800
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$150/ -$80
GOLD Price Analysis – July 16, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its upward trend, remaining well bid around the 2,440 level and hitting an intraday high of 2,443.
This upward movement is attributed to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding monetary policy, which have increased the appeal of precious metals. Lower borrowing costs make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive to investors.
Investors appear convinced that the US central bank will begin a rate-cutting cycle in September, a sentiment reaffirmed by Powell's recent remarks. This outlook has kept US Treasury bond yields depressed, benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal.
However, the pace of gold price gains could slow following Monday's economic data, which revealed weaker-than-expected second-quarter economic growth in China, reflecting sluggish domestic demand.
Impact of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Dovish Comments on Gold Prices
On the US front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments on Monday bolstered precious metals like gold, as lower borrowing costs make them more attractive to investors. Powell indicated confidence in inflation nearing the Fed's target sustainably, suggesting potential interest rate cuts ahead.
Meanwhile, Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted a cooling inflation trend, supporting the view that inflation is heading towards 2%, though she emphasized the need for more data before deciding on rates.
Market expectations, reflected in CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, now show an 85.7% likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, up from 71.0% last week. Eyes are now on the upcoming US Retail Sales data for June for further economic insights.
Thus, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish stance and expectations of interest rate cuts have boosted gold prices, with lower borrowing costs enhancing the metal's attractiveness to investors seeking non-yielding assets.
Impact of China's Economic Slowdown and Trade Tensions on Gold Prices
On the other hand, gold prices face some challenges due to recent economic data indicating slower-than-expected growth in China's GDP for the second quarter, driven by weak domestic demand.
Meanwhile, the ongoing third plenum of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress, scheduled from July 15 to 18, underscores ongoing economic policy discussions amidst this economic slowdown.
Standard Chartered forecasts potential rate cuts by the People's Bank of China and adjustments to the reserve requirement ratio in response to the GDP deceleration. China's economic growth remains uneven, further complicated by escalating trade tensions; the US and EU recently imposed new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, impacting global trade dynamics.
Therefore, the potential economic slowdown in China, coupled with ongoing policy adjustments and trade tensions, may weigh on gold prices, as investors monitor developments that could affect global economic stability and demand for safe-haven assets.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently priced at $2,437.32, showing an increase of 0.19%. The 4-hour chart reveals critical price levels, with the pivot point at $2,445. Immediate resistance is found at $2,442.50, with further resistance at $2,453.71 and $2,466.69.
On the downside, immediate support is situated at $2,419.84, followed by $2,403.30 and $2,391.59.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 69, indicating that gold is nearing overbought territory, suggesting that traders should monitor for potential signs of a pullback. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2,403.58, supporting the ongoing bullish trend.
Gold's recent performance has been buoyed by market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. These expectations have kept U.S. Treasury yields depressed, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
The metal's current bullish trend is further reinforced by global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, which typically drive investors towards safe-haven assets.
Traders looking to enter the market should consider buying above $2,430, targeting a take-profit level at $2,445, while setting a stop-loss at $2,422 to manage potential downside risks. Maintaining these strategic levels is crucial as it allows traders to capitalize on the prevailing bullish momentum while mitigating potential losses.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2404.275, down 0.01%, with a cautious bearish outlook below $2392.41.
- Immediate resistance at $2418.65, while support levels to watch are $2380.69 and $2370.16.
- RSI at 52 indicates a neutral market; 50-day EMA at $2388.37 acts as dynamic support.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2404.275, showing a slight decline of 0.01%. The 4-hour chart highlights key levels that traders should be aware of to navigate potential price movements. The pivot point is set at $2392.41, a critical juncture that can indicate the direction of future price action.
Immediate resistance is observed at $2418.65, with further resistance levels at $2430.04 and $2441.14. These levels are essential for traders to watch, as they can signal where upward momentum might face challenges.
Conversely, on the downside, immediate support is identified at $2380.69, followed by $2370.16 and $2355.08. These support levels suggest potential areas where prices could stabilize or rebound if selling pressure increases.
Technical indicators provide further insights into the current market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52, indicating a neutral stance without strong overbought or oversold conditions.
This neutrality suggests that the market is balanced and not skewed heavily in one direction. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2388.37, serving as a dynamic support level.
The price remaining above this average could prevent further declines, signaling that buyers are stepping in at this level.
Given these observations, the outlook for Gold (XAU/USD) suggests a cautious bearish sentiment below the pivot point of $2392.41. Traders might consider an entry price to sell below $2405, aiming for a take profit at $2392.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2405
Take Profit – 2392
Stop Loss – 2416
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1300/ -$1100
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$130/ -$110
GOLD Price Analysis – July 15, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) managed to stop its early-day losses and drew strong fresh bids around the 1,912 level. The reason for its upward trend could be attributed to the growing speculation for Fed rate cuts in September.
However, the gains in the gold price could be short-lived or limited as the US Dollar gained ground after an assassination attempt on former United States (US) President Donald Trump improved the US Dollar’s appeal. Nevertheless, the near-term outlook for the gold price remains firm as US bond yields weaken.
US Treasury yields fall as market expectations for the Fed to begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting have accelerated significantly.
Impact of Economic Indicators on Gold Prices and Market Outlook
On the US front, the outlook for gold remains strong as US bond yields weaken. Although the 10-year US Treasury yields edged higher to 4.20%, they are still near a four-month low as the lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Market expectations for the Fed to start reducing interest rates from September have surged due to easing US consumer inflation and a cooling labor market. Last week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed inflation slowing faster than expected, boosting confidence in the ongoing disinflation process.
Additionally, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased by 2.6% in June, exceeding the expected 2.3%, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the production pipeline.
Therefore, the impact of this news on gold prices is positive. As US bond yields weaken and inflation eases, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold decreases.
Additionally, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts enhance gold's appeal as an investment, contributing to firmer near-term prices.
Moving on, this week investors will focus on US Retail Sales data for June, expected to show no change after a 0.1% growth in May, to be published Tuesday. On Monday, attention will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 16:30 GMT, where he may discuss inflation and interest rates.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2404.275, showing a slight decline of 0.01%. The 4-hour chart highlights key levels that traders should be aware of to navigate potential price movements.
The pivot point is set at $2392.41, a critical juncture that can indicate the direction of future price action.
Immediate resistance is observed at $2418.65, with further resistance levels at $2430.04 and $2441.14. These levels are essential for traders to watch, as they can signal where upward momentum might face challenges.
Conversely, on the downside, immediate support is identified at $2380.69, followed by $2370.16 and $2355.08. These support levels suggest potential areas where prices could stabilize or rebound if selling pressure increases.
Technical indicators provide further insights into the current market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52, indicating a neutral stance without strong overbought or oversold conditions.
This neutrality suggests that the market is balanced and not skewed heavily in one direction. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2388.37, serving as a dynamic support level. The price remaining above this average could prevent further declines, signaling that buyers are stepping in at this level.
Given these observations, the outlook for Gold (XAU/USD) suggests a cautious bearish sentiment below the pivot point of $2392.41. Traders might consider an entry price to sell below $2405, aiming for a take profit at $2392.
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GOLD Price Analysis – July 12, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the release of softer-than-expected US consumer inflation figures, which boosted bets for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, Gold (XAU/USD) has failed to extend its three-day winning streak.
It edged lower around the 2,401 level, hitting an intra-day low of 2,400. This downward movement can be attributed to the uptick in US bond yields and renewed US dollar demand.
Additionally, the bullish sentiment surrounding the equity markets prompted some selling of the safe-haven precious metal during the European session on Friday.
Looking ahead, traders are now focused on the upcoming release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for potential market-moving cues later in the North American session.
US Dollar Rebounds Despite Rate Cut Expectations, Bolstering Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged higher from a nearly three-month low despite expectations of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driven by softer inflation figures.
This rebound was supported by a rise in US Treasury bond yields and better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims, which fell to 222K for the week ending July 6. Investors now see a 90% chance of a rate cut in September, as per the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Additionally, Fed officials noted that improving inflation figures could justify one or two rate cuts this year, though they remain cautious about recession risks.
On the data front, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped in June for the first time in over four years, with the yearly rate slowing to 3% from 3.3% in May. Core CPI rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% YoY, missing estimates. Investors now see over a 90% chance of a rate cut.
Therefore, the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, driven by softer inflation data, has bolstered gold prices as lower interest rates typically increase the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold's recent rally has lost steam, with prices dipping slightly to $2409.45 per ounce. The precious metal now finds itself at a crucial juncture, testing the pivotal $2413.74 support level.
A decisive break below this level could trigger further downside momentum, potentially pushing prices towards the $2397.20 support zone. Conversely, a rebound from this level could signal renewed buying interest, with the potential to retest recent highs.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $2377.62, is a key indicator to watch. This moving average has served as a reliable support level in recent months, and a break below it would likely amplify bearish sentiment.
However, as long as prices remain above this EMA, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, currently sits at 68. While this suggests the market is overbought, it's important to note that gold has maintained elevated RSI levels during its recent uptrend.
Therefore, traders should exercise caution and wait for confirmation before acting on this signal.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Point: $2413.74 is the key level to watch. A break below could trigger further downside pressure.
- 50 EMA: $2377.62 is a crucial support level. A break below could signal a significant shift in momentum.
- RSI: Currently at 68, suggesting overbought conditions. However, caution is warranted as gold has maintained elevated RSI levels during its recent uptrend.
Gold's recent rally has lost steam, with prices dipping slightly to $2409.45 per ounce. The precious metal now finds itself at a crucial juncture, testing the pivotal $2413.74 support level.
A decisive break below this level could trigger further downside momentum, potentially pushing prices towards the $2397.20 support zone. Conversely, a rebound from this level could signal renewed buying interest, with the potential to retest recent highs.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $2377.62, is a key indicator to watch.
This moving average has served as a reliable support level in recent months, and a break below it would likely amplify bearish sentiment. However, as long as prices remain above this EMA, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, currently sits at 68. While this suggests the market is overbought, it's important to note that gold has maintained elevated RSI levels during its recent uptrend.
Therefore, traders should exercise caution and wait for confirmation before acting on this signal.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2414
Take Profit – 2397
Stop Loss – 2425
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1700/ -$1100
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$170/ -$110
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold prices hover near key resistance at $2391.22, a breakout above which could trigger further gains towards $2402.89 and $2412.31.
- The 50-day EMA at $2371.18 and the immediate support at $2370.65 are crucial levels to watch for potential buying opportunities.
- The RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a possible short-term pullback. Traders may consider waiting for a confirmed breakout or buying on dips with a tight stop-loss.
Gold prices are poised at a critical juncture, currently trading at $2382. The 4-hour chart reveals a complex interplay of support and resistance levels.
The immediate resistance stands at $2391.22, a level that gold bulls need to overcome to confirm a sustained upward move. A break above this resistance could propel prices towards the next targets at $2402.89 and $2412.31.
Conversely, the immediate support lies at $2370.65. A breach below this level could trigger a deeper retracement towards $2358.72 and $2349.50. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $2371.18, acts as a dynamic support level that could bolster prices on any dips.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 64 suggests that gold is in overbought territory, raising the possibility of a short-term pullback. However, the overall trend remains bullish, with the potential for further upside if buyers maintain momentum.
Given the current technical setup, a conservative approach would be to wait for a confirmed break above $2391.22 before initiating long positions.
Alternatively, aggressive traders could consider buying above $2379, with a stop-loss order placed below $2370. The initial target for profit-taking would be the pivot point at $2396.75.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2379
Take Profit – 2396
Stop Loss – 2370
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1700/ -$900
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$170/ -$90