GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold price rises to $2,464.83, driven by global economic uncertainties and risk aversion.
- Immediate resistance at $2,469.89; overbought RSI of 72 suggests possible short-term correction.
- Entry recommended above $2,455; target take-profit at $2,483, stop-loss at $2,433.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,464.83, up 0.45%, as investors look for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties. The 4-hour chart shows that gold has breached key resistance levels, indicating bullish momentum.
The immediate resistance is at $2,469.89, followed by $2,483.50 and $2,503.94. If gold manages to break above these levels, it could potentially test higher targets.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,430.57, with subsequent support at $2,408.91 and $2,386.97. A decline below these levels might trigger a bearish trend, but the overall outlook remains positive as long as gold stays above the pivot point of $2,483.00.
The RSI stands at 72, signaling that the metal is currently overbought, which could lead to a short-term correction before further gains.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,405.75 further supports the bullish trend. This indicator highlights strong buying interest and suggests that the uptrend might continue, especially if macroeconomic conditions continue to favor risk-averse investments.
In terms of trading strategy, an entry price is recommended above $2,455, with a target take-profit level at $2,483 and a stop-loss set at $2,433. This approach aims to capitalize on the current bullish sentiment while managing risk effectively.
Investors should remain cautious, as geopolitical tensions and economic data releases could influence gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2455
Take Profit – 2483
Stop Loss – 2433
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2800/ -$2200
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$280/ -$220
GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 02, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its previous upward trend and drew further bids around the 2,464 level, reaching an intraday high of $2,468. This rebound can be attributed to speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin reducing interest rates in September.
This undermined the US dollar and contributed to the gold price gains. Meanwhile, the risk-off market sentiment driven by growing concerns about the US economy and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East was seen as another key factor that boosted the gold price.
Looking ahead, traders are awaiting upcoming US labor market data, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings for July. The official Employment data will indicate the current status of the labor market, which will influence market speculation for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.
The US NFP report is expected to show that 175K new workers were hired in July, a decrease from the previous addition of 206K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.
US Economic Concerns and Dovish Fed Policy Bolster Gold's Appeal
On the US front, the previously released manufacturing and employment data raised concerns about the economy, boosting risk aversion and supporting gold. Meanwhile, the yellow metal gained further traction due to dovish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy.
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% in July and signaled potential rate cuts due to cooling inflation and a moderating labor market. This pressured the US dollar and contributed to gold's gains, as lower interest rates tend to increase the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
On the data front, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to an eight-month low of 46.8 in July, down from 48.5 and below the expected 48.8. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 26 rose to 249K, exceeding the forecast of 236K and the previous week's 235K.
The official Employment data will indicate the current status of the labor market, influencing market speculation for a Fed rate cut in September. The US NFP report is expected to show that 175K new workers were hired in July, a decrease from the previous addition of 206K, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.
Investors will also focus on the Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth that fuels consumer spending and drives price pressures.
Annually, wage growth is estimated to have decelerated to 3.7% from the prior reading of 3.9%, with the monthly figure growing steadily by 0.3%. Softer-than-expected wage growth data will diminish fears of persistent inflation, strengthening Fed rate-cut prospects, while stubborn numbers would weaken them.
Thus, the concerns over US manufacturing and employment, dovish Fed policy, and expectations of rate cuts due to cooling inflation and moderating labor market support gold, increasing its appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Rising Middle East Tensions Boost Gold Demand Following Assassination of Hamas Leader
On the geopolitical front, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have recently fueled a rise in gold prices. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, following his attendance at the new president's inauguration, has intensified these tensions.
The New York Times reports that Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital, with both Iranian officials and Hamas accusing Israel of orchestrating the attack. This escalation has further bolstered gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,464.83, up 0.45%, as investors look for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties. The 4-hour chart shows that gold has breached key resistance levels, indicating bullish momentum.
The immediate resistance is at $2,469.89, followed by $2,483.50 and $2,503.94. If gold manages to break above these levels, it could potentially test higher targets.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,430.57, with subsequent support at $2,408.91 and $2,386.97. A decline below these levels might trigger a bearish trend, but the overall outlook remains positive as long as gold stays above the pivot point of $2,483.00.
The RSI stands at 72, signaling that the metal is currently overbought, which could lead to a short-term correction before further gains.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,405.75 further supports the bullish trend. This indicator highlights strong buying interest and suggests that the uptrend might continue, especially if macroeconomic conditions continue to favor risk-averse investments.
In terms of trading strategy, an entry price is recommended above $2,455, with a target take-profit level at $2,483 and a stop-loss set at $2,433. This approach aims to capitalize on the current bullish sentiment while managing risk effectively.
Investors should remain cautious, as geopolitical tensions and economic data releases could influence gold prices.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 02, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 01, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) failed to stop their early-day downward trend and remained well-offered around the 2,435 level, hitting an intra-day low of 2,430. This downward trend can be attributed to the renewed strength of the US dollar, which gained traction due to market expectations that the US economy remains robust, despite the Federal Reserve's dovish guidance on interest rates.
However, the expectation that the Fed will start lowering its key borrowing rates from September helped limit gold's deeper losses. Additionally, the widening Middle East conflicts were seen as another key factor that might help limit gold's losses.
US Dollar Strength and Economic Data Influence Gold Prices Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has gained bullish traction, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounding strongly to 104.20 from an intraday low of 103.86, making gold investments less attractive.
However, gold's broader appeal remains firm as US bond yields have tumbled, with 10-year US Treasury yields dropping to near a six-month low of 4.03% amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates from September.
This comes after the Fed's dovish guidance, leaving rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, and signaling potential rate cuts due to cooling inflation and a moderating labor market.
On the data front, investors are focusing on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report for July, expected at 14:00 GMT.
The PMI is anticipated to rise slightly to 48.8 from June’s 48.5, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Prices Paid index is predicted to grow more slowly at 51.8, suggesting cooling inflation.
Whereas, the key event for the FX market is the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, with an expected hiring of 175K in July, down from 206K. The Unemployment Rate should hold steady at 4.1%, and wage growth is forecasted to slow to 3.7% annually.
Therefore, the rebound in the US dollar and upcoming economic data, like the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls report, could pressure gold prices. However, expectations of Fed rate cuts and lower US bond yields may support gold's appeal.
Middle East Tensions Boost Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal Amid Rising Conflict
On the geopolitical front, escalating Middle Eastern conflicts have boosted gold's appeal as a safe-haven. However, the killing of a Hamas leader in Iran has raised fears of a broader conflict, increasing demand for gold.
Meanwhile, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting amid rising tensions, with calls for peace from Palestine’s deputy UN representative and accusations from Iran against Israel.
In Gaza, an Israeli attack has resulted in deaths and injuries, adding to the already high toll of over 39,000 deaths and 91,000 injuries in the ongoing conflict.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,445.795, showing little change, but the metal remains poised for volatility given the current technical setup. On the 4-hour chart, gold hovers just below a critical pivot point at $2,450.64, a level that could signal a shift in momentum depending on the direction of the next breakout.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,467.87, followed by more formidable barriers at $2,483.50 and $2,503.94. These levels suggest potential zones where sellers might regain control. A sustained move above these resistances could attract momentum buyers, potentially propelling gold to new highs in the short term.
However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71, gold is approaching overbought territory, indicating the possibility of a corrective pullback.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,426.59, with additional supports at $2,404.15 and $2,380.90. These levels could serve as potential entry points for buyers should gold prices dip.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,399.53 suggests a bullish undertone, as the price remains above this moving average, indicating underlying buying interest.
Traders might consider entering a short position below the pivot point of $2,450, targeting a take profit at $2,425. Given the proximity to resistance and the overbought conditions, a stop loss at $2,468 would help manage risk.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – Aug 01, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold prices steady at $2,445.795; pivotal moment as resistance looms at $2,450.64.
- RSI at 71 suggests gold nearing overbought; potential pullback to $2,426.59 support.
- Short below $2,450 with a target of $2,425; stop loss at $2,468 recommended.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,445.795, showing little change, but the metal remains poised for volatility given the current technical setup. On the 4-hour chart, gold hovers just below a critical pivot point at $2,450.64, a level that could signal a shift in momentum depending on the direction of the next breakout.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,467.87, followed by more formidable barriers at $2,483.50 and $2,503.94. These levels suggest potential zones where sellers might regain control. A sustained move above these resistances could attract momentum buyers, potentially propelling gold to new highs in the short term.
However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71, gold is approaching overbought territory, indicating the possibility of a corrective pullback.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,426.59, with additional supports at $2,404.15 and $2,380.90. These levels could serve as potential entry points for buyers should gold prices dip.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,399.53 suggests a bullish undertone, as the price remains above this moving average, indicating underlying buying interest.
Traders might consider entering a short position below the pivot point of $2,450, targeting a take profit at $2,425. Given the proximity to resistance and the overbought conditions, a stop loss at $2,468 would help manage risk.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2450
Take Profit – 2425
Stop Loss – 2468
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1800
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$180
GOLD Price Analysis – July 31, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued their early-day upward momentum, staying well-supported around the $2,416 level and reaching an intra-day high of $2,425. The bullish trend in gold is primarily driven by a weaker US dollar, which has lost traction amid expectations of the Federal Reserve beginning a rate-cutting cycle in September.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions have heightened following an Israeli attack on Lebanon's capital in retaliation for a rocket strike in the Golan Heights. The increasing risk of further conflict in the Middle East has bolstered gold's safe-haven appeal.
Furthermore, concerns over sluggish global economic growth have also contributed to the upward pressure on gold prices.
Weakening US Dollar and Mixed Economic Data Boost Gold Prices Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar declined as many investors believed the Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates in September. Although the US dollar saw a brief uptick in response to positive macroeconomic data, the momentum quickly dissipated amid expectations of an imminent rate-cutting cycle.
On the data front, the US reported 8.18 million job openings in June, slightly down from 8.23 million in May but above the expected 8.03 million. Additionally, the Consumer Confidence Index rose to 100.3 in July from a revised 97.8 in June, reflecting continued optimism about the job market.
Therefore, the weakening US dollar and mixed economic data, coupled with expectations of the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts soon, are likely to support higher gold prices. Investors are turning to safe-haven assets like gold amid uncertain interest rate and economic conditions.
Gold Prices Surge Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions and Global Economic Uncertainty
On the geopolitical front, escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven gold prices to a one-week high. The Israeli military's attack on Beirut, targeting a Hezbollah commander in response to a rocket strike, has heightened fears of a broader conflict.
This increased geopolitical risk, combined with a slight pullback in the US dollar and concerns about a global economic slowdown, has led investors to seek refuge in gold as a safe-haven asset.
Meanwhile, economic data from Europe and China also impacted gold prices. Germany's economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, reversing earlier growth, while China's manufacturing sector shrank for the third consecutive month in July, with the services sector showing only modest growth.
These global economic uncertainties have further enhanced gold's appeal as a protective investment amidst fluctuating economic conditions and geopolitical instability.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2417.835, up 0.28% on the day. The 4-hour chart shows a strong bullish momentum, with prices surpassing the pivot point at $2415.905.
Immediate resistance is noted at $2432.609, with subsequent resistance levels at $2451.437 and $2475.643. On the downside, immediate support is observed at $2385.740, followed by $2369.345 and $2353.647.
Technical indicators suggest a bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64, indicating positive momentum but still below overbought levels, suggesting there is room for further gains.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2415, supporting the bullish outlook. The recommended trade setup is to enter a buy limit at $2415, with a take profit target at $2440 and a stop loss at $2400, reflecting a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
The overall technical picture remains positive for gold as long as prices stay above the pivot point at $2415.905. A sustained move above immediate resistance at $2432.609 could open the path towards the next resistance levels at $2451.437 and $2475.643.
Conversely, a break below immediate support at $2385.740 may signal a potential shift in the short-term trend, targeting the next support levels.
In conclusion, the technical outlook for gold remains bullish above $2415.905.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 31, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold trades at $2417.835, up 0.28%, showing bullish momentum on the 4-hour chart.
- Immediate resistance levels: $2432.609, $2451.437, $2475.643; support levels: $2385.740, $2369.345, $2353.647.
- RSI at 64, 50-day EMA at $2415, suggesting a buy limit at $2415, take profit at $2440, and stop loss at $2400.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2417.835, up 0.28% on the day. The 4-hour chart shows a strong bullish momentum, with prices surpassing the pivot point at $2415.905. Immediate resistance is noted at $2432.609, with subsequent resistance levels at $2451.437 and $2475.643.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $2385.740, followed by $2369.345 and $2353.647.
Technical indicators suggest a bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64, indicating positive momentum but still below overbought levels, suggesting there is room for further gains.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2415, supporting the bullish outlook. The recommended trade setup is to enter a buy limit at $2415, with a take profit target at $2440 and a stop loss at $2400, reflecting a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
The overall technical picture remains positive for gold as long as prices stay above the pivot point at $2415.905. A sustained move above immediate resistance at $2432.609 could open the path towards the next resistance levels at $2451.437 and $2475.643.
Conversely, a break below immediate support at $2385.740 may signal a potential shift in the short-term trend, targeting the next support levels.
In conclusion, the technical outlook for gold remains bullish above $2415.905.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 2415
Take Profit – 2440
Stop Loss – 2400
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$150
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold price at $2,391.16, pivot point at $2,400.00.
- Immediate resistance at $2,403.34; support at $2,353.64.
- RSI at 50, 50-day EMA at $2,401.71 indicating neutral sentiment.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,391.16, reflecting a stable performance amidst global market fluctuations. The pivot point at $2,400.00 is a crucial level, acting as both a psychological barrier and a technical marker.
Immediate resistance is identified at $2,403.34, with subsequent resistance levels at $2,427.28 and $2,451.43. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,353.64, followed by stronger support levels at $2,337.61 and $2,321.18.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50, indicating neutral market sentiment. This balanced RSI suggests that gold is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for potential upward or downward movement based on forthcoming market cues.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,401.71, slightly above the current price.
This proximity to the EMA highlights a critical juncture; a sustained move above this level could signal bullish momentum, whereas failure to breach this threshold might reinforce bearish trends.
The current market scenario suggests a strategic entry point for traders looking to capitalize on gold's stability. An entry price above $2,380 is recommended, targeting a take profit level of $2,400. A stop loss should be set at $2,365 to mitigate potential downside risks.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2380
Take Profit – 2400
Stop Loss – 2365
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$150
GOLD Price Analysis – July 30, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) has continued its upward momentum, recently reaching an intra-day high of 2,392 after climbing around the 2,390 mark. This rally is largely driven by expectations of a September Fed rate cut, which diminishes the value of the US dollar and bolsters gold prices.
Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset.
However, Bank of America suggests that the strong US economy might lead the Fed to delay rate cuts until December. This potential postponement indicates that the Fed views the economy as robust enough to forgo immediate stimulus, which could result in a stronger US dollar in the short term.
Investors might interpret this as a sign of economic resilience and a commitment to maintaining higher rates for an extended period.
Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations on Gold and US Dollar
On the US front, the US dollar might face challenges as expectations rise for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. With signs of cooling inflation and a softer labor market, there’s speculation about three rate cuts this year.
The Fed’s decision on interest rates will be closely watched on Wednesday. On Friday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for June increased by 2.5% year-over-year, slightly down from 2.6% in May, and rose by 0.1% monthly.
Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, climbed to 2.6% in June, matching May’s rise and above the 2.5% forecast.
On the flip side, Bank of America believes that the strong US economy allows the Federal Reserve to hold off on changes for now. They think the Fed can wait and will likely start cutting rates in December, as the economy remains robust.
Thus, the expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut could support Gold prices, as lower rates generally make non-yielding assets like Gold more attractive. However, if the Fed delays cuts, Gold might face downward pressure due to a stronger dollar.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,391.16, reflecting a stable performance amidst global market fluctuations. The pivot point at $2,400.00 is a crucial level, acting as both a psychological barrier and a technical marker.
Immediate resistance is identified at $2,403.34, with subsequent resistance levels at $2,427.28 and $2,451.43. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,353.64, followed by stronger support levels at $2,337.61 and $2,321.18.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50, indicating neutral market sentiment. This balanced RSI suggests that gold is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for potential upward or downward movement based on forthcoming market cues.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,401.71, slightly above the current price.
This proximity to the EMA highlights a critical juncture; a sustained move above this level could signal bullish momentum, whereas failure to breach this threshold might reinforce bearish trends.
The current market scenario suggests a strategic entry point for traders looking to capitalize on gold's stability. An entry price above $2,380 is recommended, targeting a take profit level of $2,400. A stop loss should be set at $2,365 to mitigate potential downside risks.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – July 30, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Point: $2,400.94 is crucial for potential bullish moves above or bearish below.
- Immediate Resistance: Levels at $2,432.20, $2,451.44, and $2,475.48 could cap upside.
- Immediate Support: Key levels at $2,370.88, $2,353.65, and $2,337.62 to watch for downside.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,388.515, up 0.34% on a 4-hour chart. The pivot point stands at $2,400.94, which is a crucial level to monitor. Immediate resistance levels are $2,432.20, $2,451.44, and $2,475.48. On the downside, immediate support is at $2,370.88, followed by $2,353.65 and $2,337.62.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47, indicating a neutral stance with no clear overbought or oversold signals. This suggests that the market could move in either direction depending on forthcoming market dynamics and data releases.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $2,411.16, which provides a higher resistance level. If prices move above this EMA, it could signify a stronger bullish trend. Conversely, staying below this EMA reinforces a bearish outlook.
Given the current technical setup, traders should consider a cautious approach. Buying opportunities may present themselves above the pivot point of $2,400.94, with a potential take profit level at $2,432.20.
A stop loss should be set at $2,370.88 to manage downside risk. The RSI suggests neutrality, so traders should keep an eye on any significant movements that might indicate a clearer trend direction.
In summary, while gold is showing some bullish momentum, key resistance levels above and support levels below will be critical in determining the next significant price movements.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08354
Take Profit – 2371
Stop Loss – 2416
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2900/ -$1600
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$290/ -$160
GOLD Price Analysis – July 29, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend, holding firm around the $2,392.36 level and reaching an intraday high of $2,403.25. This rally was largely driven by concerns over escalating conflict in the Middle East, bolstering safe-haven assets such as gold.
Meanwhile, the bearish US dollar, pressured by expectations of a September Fed rate cut, was another key factor boosting gold prices.
Looking ahead, traders are likely to remain cautious as they await the results of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, concluding on Wednesday.
This meeting, coupled with key US macroeconomic data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at the start of the month, could provide new direction for the commodity.
Modest Inflation Data Boosts Gold Prices Amid Weaker US Dollar and Lower Treasury Yields
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar continued to lose strength and remained depressed after the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data released on Friday showed modest inflation growth in June.
This data increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates soon, leading to a decline in US Treasury bond yields and putting pressure on the US dollar.
On the data front, the US Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 0.1% in June, following no change in May. Over the past year, the PCE Price Index increased by 2.5%, down slightly from 2.6% in May, indicating easing price pressures.
Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy prices and is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose by 0.2% in June and held steady at 2.6% year-over-year. These figures matched consensus estimates and signaled a gradual reduction in inflation.
Therefore, the modest inflation growth indicated by the PCE Price Index data increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, weakening the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields, thus boosting gold prices as a safe-haven asset.
Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold Prices Amidst Limited Upside from Global Equity Markets
Another factor boosting the gold price is the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The recent attack in the Golan Heights and ongoing conflict between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in Lebanon have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the situation in Gaza, with large-scale evacuations and heavy fighting, is adding to gold’s appeal.
Despite this, the positive sentiment in global equity markets is limiting gold’s price gains, as investors are less focused on traditional safe-haven assets. Therefore, while gold is benefiting from geopolitical fears, its price is somewhat restrained.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,388.515, up 0.34% on a 4-hour chart. The pivot point stands at $2,400.94, which is a crucial level to monitor. Immediate resistance levels are $2,432.20, $2,451.44, and $2,475.48. On the downside, immediate support is at $2,370.88, followed by $2,353.65 and $2,337.62.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47, indicating a neutral stance with no clear overbought or oversold signals. This suggests that the market could move in either direction depending on forthcoming market dynamics and data releases.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $2,411.16, which provides a higher resistance level. If prices move above this EMA, it could signify a stronger bullish trend. Conversely, staying below this EMA reinforces a bearish outlook.
Given the current technical setup, traders should consider a cautious approach. Buying opportunities may present themselves above the pivot point of $2,400.94, with a potential take profit level at $2,432.20.
A stop loss should be set at $2,370.88 to manage downside risk. The RSI suggests neutrality, so traders should keep an eye on any significant movements that might indicate a clearer trend direction.
In summary, while gold is showing some bullish momentum, key resistance levels above and support levels below will be critical in determining the next significant price movements.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 29, 2024