GOLD Price Analysis – May 02, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently hovering around $3,260, following a three-day losing streak that was halted by a slight bounce. This struggle can be attributed to easing tariff tensions and growing hopes of a potential trade deal between the United States and China.
Initially, the market reacted negatively, but the rising uncertainty and potential risks from these trade talks have increased demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset, pushing its price higher. Investors typically turn to Gold when trade tensions or economic uncertainties rise.
Meanwhile, the statement from China’s Commerce Ministry highlighted the US’ repeated expressions of willingness to engage in tariff discussions, signaling potential progress.
However, China also urged the US to demonstrate “sincerity” before formal talks could begin, indicating that there are still hurdles to overcome before an agreement is reached.
This hope for a de-escalation in trade tensions has overshadowed Gold’s rally, as the precious metal is often seen as a safe-haven asset during periods of uncertainty. The easing of trade-related concerns typically shifts investor interest away from Gold, driving its price lower.
Fed's Interest Rate Decisions and the Impact on Gold
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates remains a crucial element for Gold’s trajectory. As of now, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s May meeting stands at just 6.4%, while the odds of a cut in June are at 57.8%.
However, the significant shift in market sentiment could occur if the Nonfarm Payrolls data, set to be released later this Friday, comes in significantly below expectations.
A weak jobs report could heighten expectations for a rate cut, which would likely benefit Gold by weakening the US Dollar and increasing demand for the metal.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is trading within a descending channel after failing to sustain above the $3,294.47 resistance, corresponding with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the April high to recent lows.
Price recently rebounded from the $3,202.89 low, printing a modest sequence of higher lows that hint at a short-term recovery attempt, but overall bias remains bearish unless price breaks above the channel resistance.
Technically, a spinning top formed on the latest 4H candle signals indecision after a small bullish impulse. RSI stands at 44.04, still below the 50 neutral line, reflecting sluggish momentum.
There’s also a mild bullish divergence between RSI and price lows, suggesting downside momentum may be fading—but it's not strong enough to flip sentiment without confirmation.
The 50-SMA at $3,313.58 continues to slope downward, reinforcing resistance around the $3,294 pivot. Price is currently pressing against the 38.2% Fib level at $3,247, and struggling to reclaim ground above the $3,261 midpoint. Until bulls can close decisively above $3,294, rallies may be sold.
Key support lies at $3,230, the 23.6% Fib, followed by the recent swing low at $3,202. A drop below $3,230 could invite another wave of selling, potentially forming a three black crows pattern if the next candles turn aggressively bearish.
A bearish bias holds unless price breaks and holds above $3,294 with volume.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold remains trapped in a bearish channel with weak bullish divergence.
- Spinning top candlestick suggests hesitation near $3,260.
- 50 EMA at $3,313 caps upside and affirms bearish control.
Gold is trading within a descending channel after failing to sustain above the $3,294.47 resistance, corresponding with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the April high to recent lows.
Price recently rebounded from the $3,202.89 low, printing a modest sequence of higher lows that hint at a short-term recovery attempt, but overall bias remains bearish unless price breaks above the channel resistance.
Technically, a spinning top formed on the latest 4H candle signals indecision after a small bullish impulse. RSI stands at 44.04, still below the 50 neutral line, reflecting sluggish momentum.
There’s also a mild bullish divergence between RSI and price lows, suggesting downside momentum may be fading—but it's not strong enough to flip sentiment without confirmation.
The 50-SMA at $3,313.58 continues to slope downward, reinforcing resistance around the $3,294 pivot. Price is currently pressing against the 38.2% Fib level at $3,247, and struggling to reclaim ground above the $3,261 midpoint. Until bulls can close decisively above $3,294, rallies may be sold.
Key support lies at $3,230, the 23.6% Fib, followed by the recent swing low at $3,202. A drop below $3,230 could invite another wave of selling, potentially forming a three black crows pattern if the next candles turn aggressively bearish.
A bearish bias holds unless price breaks and holds above $3,294 with volume.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 3230
Take Profit – 3294
Stop Loss – 3197
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$6400/ -$3300
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$640/ -$330
GOLD Price Analysis – May 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have shown a bearish trend through the first half of the European session, trading around the $3,219 region. However, the global risk sentiment remains bolstered by signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. This, coupled with a stronger US Dollar, has pushed traders away from the safe-haven precious metal for the third consecutive day.
US-China Trade Optimism Boosts Risk Appetite and Weighs on Gold
Investor sentiment received a boost following optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump, who indicated a “very good probability” of reaching a trade deal with China. He also mentioned potential trade agreements with other countries such as India, South Korea, and Japan.
These remarks add to the already positive outlook, easing some of the trade-related uncertainties that had previously weighed on markets. As a result, the US dollar saw upward momentum, further pressuring the gold price lower.
Therefore, the ongoing optimism surrounding US-China trade relations and the potential for economic recovery have been key drivers of this risk-on sentiment, which tends to divert flows away from safe-haven assets like gold.
Weak US Economic Data and Easing Inflation Support Gold Despite Bearish Momentum
In addition to the positive trade developments, the weak economic data from the US further supported bearish momentum for gold. On the data front, the US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, following a growth rate of 2.4% in the previous quarter.
Consequently, the disappointing GDP figures reignited concerns over a potential US recession, while a surprise drop in private sector employment, with ADP reporting only 62K job additions in April, further fueled worries.
Moreover, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed signs of easing inflation, with the YoY rate slipping to 2.3% in March, down from 2.5% in February. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, also softened to 2.6%, reinforcing expectations of a more dovish Fed policy stance.
As a result, the weak economic data has intensified bets that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its rate-cutting cycle in June. Market expectations are now pricing in a 100-basis-point rate cut by the end of 2025.
Thus, the US Dollar may stay strong in the short term due to US-China trade optimism, but Fed rate cut expectations could limit its rise and support gold in the long run.
Geopolitical Tensions and US Economic Data to Impact Gold Prices
On the geopolitical front, the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to contribute to market uncertainty. Russian drone attacks on Ukraine have resulted in civilian casualties, further fueling global risk aversion.
These factors may limit losses for gold in the short term as investors remain cautious about broader geopolitical risks.
Moving ahead, traders now look forward to key US macroeconomic releases, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI later this Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
These releases will play a significant role in shaping the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and could have a big impact on gold prices.
If the data shows that the US economy remains weak, it could increase expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Fed. This would likely limit the strength of the US Dollar and provide some support for gold prices in the weeks ahead, as investors may look to it as a safe haven.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) remains entrenched in a descending wedge pattern, struggling to reclaim resistance above $3,260. The price has sharply declined from April highs, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, with clear rejection from the $3,314 zone.
Candlestick structure is bearish, including a series of red-bodied candles and a breakdown through $3,261, reinforcing downside bias. The 50 SMA at $3,299 continues to act as dynamic resistance.
The RSI sits near 30.2, teetering on the edge of oversold territory without showing divergence—suggesting sellers remain in control. The presence of a spinning top followed by another bearish candle hints at indecision followed by renewed pressure.
If $3,222 breaks, expect a slide toward $3,188 and $3,153. For bulls to regain momentum, a decisive close above $3,260 and the wedge’s upper trendline is essential. Until then, short positions remain technically favorable.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold trades within a falling wedge; bearish continuation likely.
- RSI is oversold, but lacking bullish reversal signals.
- Breakdown below $3,222 opens door to $3,187 and $3,153.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains entrenched in a descending wedge pattern, struggling to reclaim resistance above $3,260. The price has sharply declined from April highs, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, with clear rejection from the $3,314 zone.
Candlestick structure is bearish, including a series of red-bodied candles and a breakdown through $3,261, reinforcing downside bias. The 50 SMA at $3,299 continues to act as dynamic resistance.
The RSI sits near 30.2, teetering on the edge of oversold territory without showing divergence—suggesting sellers remain in control. The presence of a spinning top followed by another bearish candle hints at indecision followed by renewed pressure.
If $3,222 breaks, expect a slide toward $3,188 and $3,153. For bulls to regain momentum, a decisive close above $3,260 and the wedge’s upper trendline is essential. Until then, short positions remain technically favorable.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 3260
Take Profit – 3187
Stop Loss – 3295
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$7300/ -$3500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$730/ -$350
GOLD Price Analysis – April 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Wednesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) dropped more than 1%, trading near $3,274. The decline marks a second consecutive day of profit-taking amid improving global trade sentiment and caution ahead of crucial US economic data releases.
However, the recent pullback in gold prices is largely driven by rising optimism surrounding global trade. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order easing tariffs on car parts, signaling positive progress in trade negotiations, according to Bloomberg.
The move has sparked hopes that further de-escalation in trade tensions could be on the horizon, reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Gold's Bullish Momentum Eases Ahead of Key US Economic Data and Fed Rate Outlook
Looking ahead, traders are now focusing on the upcoming release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q1, which is scheduled for 12:30 GMT. Economists expect a slowdown in economic growth, with forecasts suggesting just a 0.4% annualized increase.
This is much lower than the 2.4% growth seen in Q4 2024. The GDP data will be important in shaping the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
Alongside the GDP report, the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is also due. This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is expected to drop to 0.1% from 0.4%, and the overall headline PCE is expected to come in at 0%, down from 0.3%.
If these inflation numbers show a cooling trend, it could increase hopes that the Fed may take a softer approach at its May 7 policy meeting.
At the same time, former President Trump has again criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, claiming he understands interest rates better than him. This political tension adds more uncertainty to what the Fed might do next.
Gold’s Long-Term Appeal Remains Supported Despite Short-Term Pullback
Despite the recent decline, long-term demand for gold remains strong. The World Gold Council reports that global investors added around 227 tons of gold to ETFs in Q1, marking the largest inflow since 2022 and driving a 19% rally.
However, with trade tensions easing and US economic data coming into focus, short-term sentiment has shifted to a more cautious outlook.
In India, one of the world's largest gold consumers, jewelry sales dropped in March, and they are expected to decline by up to 11% through the fiscal year ending in March 2026, according to Bloomberg. This adds additional pressure on global physical gold demand.
While gold prices may face short-term pressure due to weak jewelry demand in India and cautious sentiment, strong ETF inflows and long-term demand may support a potential rebound later.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is consolidating just above an ascending trendline support drawn from the April 19 low, while capped below a descending channel top from the $3,410 swing high. The price is coiling inside a symmetrical triangle, suggesting a breakout is likely.
Price is currently below the 50-period EMA ($3,313.50), which is acting as dynamic resistance, while support remains intact near $3,306.94 and the broader $3,273.00 zone.
Recent candles show multiple spinning tops and small-bodied dojis, reflecting indecision at a key technical junction. The absence of momentum suggests traders are awaiting a fundamental catalyst.
However, price action continues to print higher lows, showing underlying bullish intent. A close above $3,313.50 could trigger a bullish continuation toward $3,352.47, and potentially $3,379.07.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 45.68, below the midpoint, and diverging slightly from price—a potential sign of fading downside pressure.
No bearish engulfing or three black crows are visible on this timeframe, but the failure to print a clean bullish engulfing or hammer near support also implies hesitancy among buyers.
If gold fails to hold above $3,306.94, it may retest the ascending trendline near $3,273.00. Below that, key horizontal support rests at $3,246.38 and then $3,212.28.
Overall, a break above the triangle and reclaim of the 50 EMA could shift short-term sentiment back to bullish.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Price is compressing inside a symmetrical triangle with ascending trendline support.
- RSI divergence and multiple doji/spinning top candles show indecision.
- Watch for a confirmed breakout above $3,313 or breakdown below $3,273.
Gold is consolidating just above an ascending trendline support drawn from the April 19 low, while capped below a descending channel top from the $3,410 swing high. The price is coiling inside a symmetrical triangle, suggesting a breakout is likely.
Price is currently below the 50-period EMA ($3,313.50), which is acting as dynamic resistance, while support remains intact near $3,306.94 and the broader $3,273.00 zone.
Recent candles show multiple spinning tops and small-bodied dojis, reflecting indecision at a key technical junction. The absence of momentum suggests traders are awaiting a fundamental catalyst.
However, price action continues to print higher lows, showing underlying bullish intent. A close above $3,313.50 could trigger a bullish continuation toward $3,352.47, and potentially $3,379.07.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 45.68, below the midpoint, and diverging slightly from price—a potential sign of fading downside pressure.
No bearish engulfing or three black crows are visible on this timeframe, but the failure to print a clean bullish engulfing or hammer near support also implies hesitancy among buyers.
If gold fails to hold above $3,306.94, it may retest the ascending trendline near $3,273.00. Below that, key horizontal support rests at $3,246.38 and then $3,212.28.
Overall, a break above the triangle and reclaim of the 50 EMA could shift short-term sentiment back to bullish.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3307
Take Profit – 3352
Stop Loss – 3273
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$4500/ -$3400
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$450/ -$340
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Price action shows a bullish engulfing and higher lows above trendline support.
- RSI at 55.86 indicates neutral-bullish momentum without overextension.
- Watch for a break above $3,352 to confirm bullish continuation toward $3,371.
Gold remains in a broad consolidation phase but is showing early signs of bullish intent. After bouncing near $3,307 support, the price now trades above the 50 SMA ($3,306.41), with $3,319 acting as a key intraday pivot.
The recovery is supported by a series of higher lows and a short-term ascending trendline drawn from the April 23 low near $3,272. This structure reinforces the bullish bias unless $3,273 is breached.
Candlestick analysis reveals a recent bullish engulfing candle followed by a small-bodied Doji near support, suggesting indecision fading in favor of buyers.
Momentum picked up again after this pattern, as the RSI turned higher from midline (now at 55.86), hinting at renewed strength without yet being overbought.
The $3,352 area has acted as a strong intraday resistance, rejecting advances twice. A clear breakout above this level would expose the $3,371 zone, which coincides with the top of a horizontal price channel that’s defined the trading range since mid-April.
Beyond that, $3,387 stands as the next upside target. On the downside, $3,306 remains the first technical floor, followed by $3,273 and $3,246.
The 50 SMA crossover above the price earlier last week suggested short-term bearishness, but the current recovery above that level negates the prior signal.
No bearish divergence is visible on the RSI, and volume has slightly increased on green candles, giving additional weight to bullish momentum.
If gold breaks and sustains above $3,352, the three white soldiers pattern from last week could extend, signaling trend continuation.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3307
Take Profit – 3371
Stop Loss – 3273
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$6400/ -$3400
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$640/ -$340
GOLD Price Analysis – April 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading around the $3,312 level and has faced some challenges in recent trading sessions, with the precious metal struggling to maintain its ground amid growing optimism surrounding US-China trade talks and a strengthening US Dollar.
Despite a slight recovery from the $3,300 mark, Gold remains under pressure, primarily driven by the improving sentiment in global markets and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy stance.
Gold Price Struggles as US-China Trade Tensions Ease and USD Strengthens
However, the recent bearish bias can be attributed to the easing of trade tensions between the US and China, which has shifted investor sentiment away from safe-haven assets.
China's recent decision to exempt certain US goods from retaliatory tariffs has sparked hope for de-escalation in the trade war between the two largest economies in the world.
This move has contributed to a more positive market mood, with investors growing hopeful that the ongoing tariff disputes may be resolved in the near future.
Moreover, US President Donald Trump’s changing stance on trade policies has created uncertainty, but his comments suggesting the possibility of negotiations with global trade partners have bolstered market optimism. Despite some ambiguity about the specifics of the trade talks, the overall sentiment remains more upbeat, undermining demand for the safe-haven Gold price.
At the same time, the US dollar has regained strength, driven by increased buying interest in the greenback. The dollar's strength has been another hurdle for Gold, as the inverse correlation between the two assets often leads to pressure on Gold when the USD rises.
However, the optimism surrounding US-China trade talks has contributed to the USD's rebound, further diminishing Gold’s appeal.
Fed Policy Outlook and Geopolitical Risks Provide Support to Gold
On the other hand, the possibility of more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could provide some support to Gold. Market expectations for rate cuts have intensified, with traders anticipating at least three rate cuts by the end of the year.
Moreover, Gold traders are awaiting key US macroeconomic data releases, including the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the central bank’s future policy decisions.
These reports may provide fresh insight into the Fed's direction, reinforcing Gold's position if the data supports a dovish stance from the Fed.
In addition to US economic factors, the geopolitical risks continue to loom large, keeping market participants on edge.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Russian President Vladimir Putin declaring a 72-hour unilateral ceasefire, adds a layer of uncertainty.
However, Ukraine’s rejection of the ceasefire and North Korea's involvement in the war keeps the geopolitical risk premium intact.
These developments maintain a level of support for Gold, as investors hedge against potential global instability.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold remains in a broad consolidation phase but is showing early signs of bullish intent. After bouncing near $3,307 support, the price now trades above the 50 SMA ($3,306.41), with $3,319 acting as a key intraday pivot.
The recovery is supported by a series of higher lows and a short-term ascending trendline drawn from the April 23 low near $3,272. This structure reinforces the bullish bias unless $3,273 is breached.
Candlestick analysis reveals a recent bullish engulfing candle followed by a small-bodied Doji near support, suggesting indecision fading in favor of buyers.
Momentum picked up again after this pattern, as the RSI turned higher from midline (now at 55.86), hinting at renewed strength without yet being overbought.
The $3,352 area has acted as a strong intraday resistance, rejecting advances twice. A clear breakout above this level would expose the $3,371 zone, which coincides with the top of a horizontal price channel that’s defined the trading range since mid-April.
Beyond that, $3,387 stands as the next upside target. On the downside, $3,306 remains the first technical floor, followed by $3,273 and $3,246.
The 50 SMA crossover above the price earlier last week suggested short-term bearishness, but the current recovery above that level negates the prior signal.
No bearish divergence is visible on the RSI, and volume has slightly increased on green candles, giving additional weight to bullish momentum.
If gold breaks and sustains above $3,352, the three white soldiers pattern from last week could extend, signaling trend continuation.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold struggles beneath $3,331, forming a bearish triangle with spinning tops and bearish engulfing patterns.
- RSI remains neutral-bearish at 46.66, lacking bullish divergence confirmation.
- Break above $3,331 needed for bulls; failure could expose $3,233 downside targets.
Gold prices continue to consolidate within a defined descending triangle, a bearish continuation pattern, while maintaining higher low formations near $3,268. A descending trendline caps upside momentum, with sellers firmly defending the $3,331 zone.
Recent candlestick action has produced multiple spinning tops and a bearish engulfing near resistance — a sign of prevailing indecision giving way to downside pressure.
The RSI is hovering at 46.66, recovering modestly from oversold territory but still below the midline, indicating weak bullish momentum.
Notably, there is no significant bullish divergence, suggesting buyers lack strong conviction. Price remains compressed below the 50-EMA ($3,316), which is sloping downward — a bearish signal.
The broader structure still favors sellers unless $3,331 is decisively broken. Failure to break above the triangle resistance could invite renewed pressure toward $3,268, and if breached, $3,233 support may come into play. A break above $3,331 would negate the bearish setup and expose $3,371 as the next major resistance.
The market also shows hints of a broader bear flag developing on higher timeframes, raising the stakes for upcoming sessions.
Traders should monitor for Doji or shooting star confirmations near resistance to validate short entries, while three white soldiers around $3,268 could signal a trend reversal.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 3267
Take Profit – 3331
Stop Loss – 3233
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$6400/ -$3400
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$640/ -$340
GOLD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During early European trading session, the Gold price (XAU/USD) continued to slide lower, trading around $3,270 level.
However, this bearish bias follows recent developments suggesting progress in trade negotiations between the United States and several Asian countries, which reduced safe-haven demand for Gold.
Gold Price Pressured by Trade Deal Progress and Tariff Negotiation Hopes
However, the decline in Gold prices was triggered after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s television interview on Sunday, where he highlighted that multiple trade deals with key Asian partners were progressing well.
Bessent emphasized that while China remains a unique case, deals with other Asian nations are moving along strongly.
Adding to the positive trade sentiment, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins mentioned ongoing daily conversations with China over tariffs, suggesting that easing measures could soon be realized. This optimism weighed on Gold, which typically benefits from trade uncertainty.
Although, the declines in the Gold could be limited as the Chinese Foreign Ministry clarified on Monday that there had been no recent phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump.
They also noted that no negotiations or consultations on tariffs had occurred, injecting a degree of caution back into markets and slowing Gold’s decline.
Focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls: Impact on Fed’s Decisions and Gold Prices
Moving ahead, traders will focus on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for April to gauge the strength of the job market.
This is important as it could impact the Federal Reserve’s next move at the May 7 meeting. Recent US data, including a drop in Durable Goods Orders and lower consumer confidence, hints that the economy may be slowing down.
Hence, the strong or weak jobs report could change expectations about interest rate hikes, which in turn would affect Gold prices. When rates rise, Gold becomes less appealing because it doesn’t earn interest like other investments.
Gold Prices Impacted by Australian News and Weak Demand from China
Another factor that has been impacting gold price is the news from Australia. Toubani Resources, a gold mining company listed on the ASX, announced a $160 million debt package through a joint venture.
This boosted investor confidence in the gold sector. Meanwhile, Thailand’s bond market is seeing its strongest monthly inflows in over three years, helped by a stronger baht and hopes for interest rate cuts — trends that were partly supported by earlier rises in gold prices.
However, gold prices stayed under pressure because of weak demand in China. In the first quarter of 2025, China's gold consumption dropped by 5.96% compared to last year, according to the China Gold Association.
Jewelry demand fell sharply by almost 27% due to high prices. Although gold bar and coin purchases jumped nearly 30%, it wasn’t enough to balance the overall decline in demand.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices continue to consolidate within a defined descending triangle, a bearish continuation pattern, while maintaining higher low formations near $3,268. A descending trendline caps upside momentum, with sellers firmly defending the $3,331 zone.
Recent candlestick action has produced multiple spinning tops and a bearish engulfing near resistance — a sign of prevailing indecision giving way to downside pressure.
The RSI is hovering at 46.66, recovering modestly from oversold territory but still below the midline, indicating weak bullish momentum.
Notably, there is no significant bullish divergence, suggesting buyers lack strong conviction. Price remains compressed below the 50-EMA ($3,316), which is sloping downward — a bearish signal.
The broader structure still favors sellers unless $3,331 is decisively broken. Failure to break above the triangle resistance could invite renewed pressure toward $3,268, and if breached, $3,233 support may come into play. A break above $3,331 would negate the bearish setup and expose $3,371 as the next major resistance.
The market also shows hints of a broader bear flag developing on higher timeframes, raising the stakes for upcoming sessions.
Traders should monitor for Doji or shooting star confirmations near resistance to validate short entries, while three white soldiers around $3,268 could signal a trend reversal.
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