GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 16, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) maintained its upward momentum, holding steady around the 2,653 mark and reaching an intra-day high of 2,655.
The primary driver behind this rise was the weaker US dollar, which lost its gains as the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in its final monetary policy meeting of 2024. This led to a lower US dollar, supporting gold prices.
Furthermore, China’s disappointing retail sales data and its focus on fiscal stimulus heightened global economic uncertainty, boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
In the meantime, the ongoing trade tensions with the US and geopolitical uncertainties, including concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, further supported the price of gold. Traders are now eyeing the release of the flash global PMIs for potential short-term opportunities.
Gold Price Boosted by Global Economic Uncertainty and Weaker US Dollar
On the China front, November retail sales rose by 3.0% year-over-year, falling short of the expected 4.6% and the previous 4.8%.
However, industrial production grew by 5.4%, surpassing the forecast of 5.3%. With the economy facing challenges, China’s leadership, led by President Xi Jinping, has pledged to raise the fiscal deficit target next year and shift focus towards boosting consumption.
The uncertainty surrounding China’s fiscal support has contributed to increased global economic uncertainty, which in turn has boosted the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Additionally, growing trade tensions between China and the US, including retaliation against US sanctions, has driven further demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks.
On the other hand, the US dollar has weakened ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision.
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in its final meeting of 2024, and markets have nearly fully priced in this reduction. Thus, the weaker dollar typically supports higher gold prices.
On the data front, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in November, signaling potential inflation pressures.
Despite this, the market still expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which supports the upward movement of gold prices. Gold tends to benefit from rate cuts because lower interest rates make gold more attractive compared to other investments.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,654.78, marking a modest gain of 0.23% in today’s session as buyers maintain control above the pivot point of $2,643.92. This upward movement reflects continued demand for the safe-haven asset amid cautious market sentiment.
Immediate resistance stands at $2,669.67, with further targets at $2,692.74 and $2,707.78. A decisive break above $2,669.67 could accelerate bullish momentum, driving gold prices toward the next critical levels.
On the downside, support is seen at $2,627.76, followed by stronger cushions at $2,613.84 and $2,598.13. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a breach below $2,643.92 could trigger selling pressure, leading to a test of lower supports.
Technically, the 50 EMA at $2,685.75 acts as a significant barrier for further gains, suggesting near-term overhead resistance.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 30 indicates oversold conditions, which may support a short-term recovery if buyers step in around key levels.
The overall trend remains cautiously bullish as long as gold sustains above the $2,643.92 pivot. A buy entry above this level with a target at $2,668 and a stop loss at $2,633 aligns with the prevailing market structure. However, any break below immediate support could invalidate the bullish bias.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate Resistance: $2,669.67; Next Levels: $2,692.74 and $2,707.78.
- Support Levels: $2,627.76; Further Supports: $2,613.84 and $2,598.13.
- Indicators: RSI at 30 signals oversold; 50 EMA at $2,685.75 remains key resistance.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,654.78, marking a modest gain of 0.23% in today’s session as buyers maintain control above the pivot point of $2,643.92. This upward movement reflects continued demand for the safe-haven asset amid cautious market sentiment.
Immediate resistance stands at $2,669.67, with further targets at $2,692.74 and $2,707.78. A decisive break above $2,669.67 could accelerate bullish momentum, driving gold prices toward the next critical levels.
On the downside, support is seen at $2,627.76, followed by stronger cushions at $2,613.84 and $2,598.13. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a breach below $2,643.92 could trigger selling pressure, leading to a test of lower supports.
Technically, the 50 EMA at $2,685.75 acts as a significant barrier for further gains, suggesting near-term overhead resistance.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 30 indicates oversold conditions, which may support a short-term recovery if buyers step in around key levels.
The overall trend remains cautiously bullish as long as gold sustains above the $2,643.92 pivot. A buy entry above this level with a target at $2,668 and a stop loss at $2,633 aligns with the prevailing market structure. However, any break below immediate support could invalidate the bullish bias.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2643
Take Profit – 2668
Stop Loss – 2633
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1000
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$100
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Level Crucial: $2,679.33 holds as a key support, maintaining short-term bullish bias.
- Resistance in Focus: Key targets at $2,701.96 and $2,719.88 could signal breakout momentum.
- Cautious Optimism: RSI at 45 and 50 EMA at $2,686.62 indicate mixed market sentiment.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,682.67, edging up 0.07% on the 4-hour chart. Prices remain supported by the pivot point at $2,679.33, with immediate resistance at $2,701.96. Further upside could target $2,719.88 and $2,732.71 if bullish momentum strengthens.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,661.04, followed by $2,647.09 and $2,627.43, levels traders should monitor closely for potential breakdowns.
The 50 EMA at $2,686.62 indicates a neutral-to-bearish short-term trend, with gold trading slightly below this key average. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 reflects balanced momentum but leans toward bearish sentiment, suggesting limited upside unless buyers regain control.
Gold’s current setup suggests cautious optimism, with a Buy Limit entry near $2,682 targeting $2,700, while a Stop Loss at $2,672 safeguards against downside risks.
A sustained move above $2,701.96 could confirm a broader bullish breakout, while failure to hold the pivot at $2,679.33 may lead to retests of lower support levels.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 2682
Take Profit – 2700
Stop Loss – 2672
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1800/ -$1000
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$180/ -$100
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Support: The 6,053.16 level is crucial for maintaining short-term stability.
- Resistance Levels: Targets at 6,093.09 and 6,127.09 signal potential upside if momentum shifts.
- Mixed Sentiment: RSI at 45 and 50 EMA near current levels reflect a balanced, cautious outlook.
The SPX500 trades at 6,051.25, down 0.54% on the 4-hour chart, reflecting cautious market sentiment. Prices hover near the pivot point at 6,053.16, which acts as a critical level for maintaining stability.
Immediate resistance is seen at 6,093.09, followed by 6,127.09 and 6,165.62. On the downside, immediate support lies at 6,028.71, with additional levels at 5,984.87 and 5,950.90, offering safety nets for bearish pressure.
The 50 EMA at 6,048.99 aligns closely with current levels, suggesting the index is testing short-term equilibrium.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 highlights neutral momentum, tilting slightly bearish, which could limit significant upside unless buying interest revives.
A Buy Limit entry at 6,028 targets 6,092, with a Stop Loss at 5,990 to manage downside risks. A break above 6,093.09 would signal renewed bullish momentum, paving the way for higher targets, while failure to hold the pivot point could prompt a decline toward 5,984.87.
Traders should monitor global risk sentiment and economic data releases, as they are likely to influence near-term trends.
S&P 500 - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 6028
Take Profit – 6092
Stop Loss – 5990
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$640/ -$380
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$64/ -$38
GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 13, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the strong US dollar, gold prices (XAU/USD) have continued to rise, reaching around the 2,692 level. This rally is driven by growing geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating issues in the Middle East, which are prompting investors to seek the safety of gold.
Besides this, the concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's potential tariff plans are further boosting gold's appeal as a reliable investment during uncertain times.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the third consecutive time at its December meeting, providing additional support for gold. However, the potential for further gains may be limited, as the Fed is likely to be cautious with more cuts, given that inflation remains above the 2% target.
Meanwhile, rising US Treasury yields are helping to keep the dollar strong, which could cap gold’s upward movement. As a result, traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of next week's crucial FOMC meeting.
Impact of US Inflation Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar extended its upward rally and remained bullish as a result of the hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday.
The US PPI increased by 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in November, marking the largest gain since June. This came after an upward revision of the October PPI, which had risen by 0.3%. The November reading was higher than the expected 0.2% increase, which helped boost the US dollar.
Looking ahead, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be the main focus next week. Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut on December 18, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
In addition, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in November, up from 2.6% in October.
In the meantime, the headline CPI showed a 0.3% MoM increase, which was in line with market expectations.
The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, climbed 3.3% YoY and increased 0.3% MoM, also in line with forecasts. These inflation figures are likely to influence the Fed's next move on interest rates.
Therefore, the stronger US dollar, driven by higher-than-expected inflation data, may put pressure on gold prices, as a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers. Additionally, expectations of a Fed rate cut could limit gold’s upward momentum.
Impact of China's Economic Outlook and Middle East Tensions on Gold Prices
On the other hand, China's positive economic outlook, with President Xi Jinping expressing confidence in meeting this year's targets, could support global growth, indirectly benefiting gold. China's Trade Balance (CNY) rose to CNY 692.8 billion in November, up from CNY 679.1 billion in October.
Exports grew by 1.5% year-over-year, while imports increased by 1.2% YoY, signaling a recovery in trade. Despite the slower pace compared to previous months, these positive figures show resilience in China's economy, which could help stabilize market sentiment.
Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East, including an Israeli airstrike that killed at least 30 Palestinians in Gaza, are driving safe-haven demand.
As geopolitical instability increases, investors often turn to gold as a secure asset, leading to higher demand for the precious metal.
This combination of China's economic strength and the rising global uncertainties could push gold prices higher as investors seek safety amidst market volatility.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,682.67, edging up 0.07% on the 4-hour chart. Prices remain supported by the pivot point at $2,679.33, with immediate resistance at $2,701.96. Further upside could target $2,719.88 and $2,732.71 if bullish momentum strengthens.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,661.04, followed by $2,647.09 and $2,627.43, levels traders should monitor closely for potential breakdowns.
The 50 EMA at $2,686.62 indicates a neutral-to-bearish short-term trend, with gold trading slightly below this key average. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 reflects balanced momentum but leans toward bearish sentiment, suggesting limited upside unless buyers regain control.
Gold’s current setup suggests cautious optimism, with a Buy Limit entry near $2,682 targeting $2,700, while a Stop Loss at $2,672 safeguards against downside risks.
A sustained move above $2,701.96 could confirm a broader bullish breakout, while failure to hold the pivot at $2,679.33 may lead to retests of lower support levels.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: $2,719.88, $2,732.71, $2,745.77.
- Support Levels: $2,699.27, $2,685.98, $2,675.44.
- Technical Indicators: RSI at 50.48; 50 EMA at $2,674.10 provides strong support.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,716.48, down slightly by 0.06% as it consolidates within a tight range on the 4-hour chart. Despite the recent dip, the price remains supported by the pivot point at $2,709.80, a crucial level for maintaining bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance is observed at $2,719.88, followed by $2,732.71 and $2,745.77. A breakout above these levels could signal a stronger upward trend, targeting higher levels in the near term.
On the downside, support is visible at $2,699.27, followed by deeper levels at $2,685.98 and $2,675.44. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,674.10 offers robust technical support, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50.48, reflecting neutral momentum with potential for upside. However, the RSI nearing oversold territory suggests that a bullish reversal may be imminent if support levels hold.
The current setup highlights an opportunity to enter long positions above $2,709, with a target of $2,732 and a stop loss at $2,700 to manage downside risks.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2709
Take Profit – 2732
Stop Loss – 2700
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2300/ -$900
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$230/ -$90
GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 12, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its early-day bearish rally and remained under pressure around the 2,716 level, eventually dropping to an intra-day low of 2,700.
This decline is mainly driven by the stronger US dollar (USD) following the release of the upbeat US inflation data on Wednesday.
Despite this, the inflation report doesn’t seem to be enough to stop the Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting rates at its meeting next week.
Traders are now pricing in a nearly 99% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut on December 18, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The focus now shifts to the US November Producer Price Index (PPI), set to be released later on Thursday, for further market direction.
Strong US Dollar and Economic Data Weigh on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar gained strong bullish traction after the release of key economic data. On the data front, the seasonally adjusted Employment Change showed an increase of 35,600 jobs in November, pushing the total number of employed people to 14.54 million.
This was well above the previous month’s increase of 12,100 and also exceeded expectations of 25,000.
At the same time, the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.9%, marking the lowest level since March, and came in below market estimates of 4.2%. These positive employment figures supported the US dollar.
Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.7% year-over-year in November, slightly up from 2.6% in October. The headline CPI showed a 0.3% month-over-month increase, matching market expectations.
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, climbed 3.3% year-over-year, with a 0.3% month-over-month rise.
Despite these inflation figures, the market believes the Federal Reserve will still proceed with rate cuts in its December meeting.
Traders are currently pricing in a 99% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction on December 18, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Turning to China, President Xi Jinping expressed confidence in achieving China’s economic targets, stating that the country remains a key driver of global growth. He also highlighted that there are no winners in trade or tariff wars.
In November, China’s Trade Balance rose to CNY 692.8 billion, up from CNY 679.1 billion the previous month.
Exports grew by 1.5% year-over-year, a slowdown compared to the 11.2% increase in October, while imports saw a slight recovery with a 1.2% increase.
Therefore, the strong US dollar and positive economic data, including low unemployment and CPI readings, put downward pressure on gold prices.
Market expectations of a Fed rate cut further fueled the dollar’s strength, leading to gold's inability to extend its gains.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,716.48, down slightly by 0.06% as it consolidates within a tight range on the 4-hour chart. Despite the recent dip, the price remains supported by the pivot point at $2,709.80, a crucial level for maintaining bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance is observed at $2,719.88, followed by $2,732.71 and $2,745.77. A breakout above these levels could signal a stronger upward trend, targeting higher levels in the near term.
On the downside, support is visible at $2,699.27, followed by deeper levels at $2,685.98 and $2,675.44. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,674.10 offers robust technical support, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50.48, reflecting neutral momentum with potential for upside. However, the RSI nearing oversold territory suggests that a bullish reversal may be imminent if support levels hold.
The current setup highlights an opportunity to enter long positions above $2,709, with a target of $2,732 and a stop loss at $2,700 to manage downside risks.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 11, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to maintain upward momentum near $2,680 and slid to an intra-day low of $2,675, pressured by a stronger US dollar.
Traders are now awaiting the release of the US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, expected later in the North American session, for further market cues.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and unrest in the Middle East, continue to bolster gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.
Furthermore, concerns about potential tariff policies under President-elect Donald Trump are adding to market uncertainty, further supporting gold’s appeal as a hedge.
Stronger US Dollar and Economic Data Pressure Gold Amid CPI and Fed Decision Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has gained strength ahead of the release of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due later in the North American session.
Analysts expect inflation to rise to 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in November, slightly up from 2.6% in October.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is predicted to remain steady at a 3.3% YoY increase.
If inflation shows signs of slowing, it could reduce the chances of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, providing additional support to the US dollar.
Market participants are closely watching the Fed’s next move, with traders currently estimating an 85.8% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut on December 18, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Adding to the dollar’s momentum, the US November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a strong 227,000 job gain, surpassing expectations, along with steady wage growth of 0.4% month-over-month.
These solid labor market indicators add complexity to the Fed’s decision-making as inflation data becomes a key focus.
Therefore, the stronger US dollar and robust economic data weigh on gold prices, as they reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
However, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming CPI data and Fed decisions could keep gold supported amid market volatility.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,695.49, up 0.05%, holding its position within a steady upward trend on the 4-hour chart. The immediate pivot point at $2,676.07 underscores a critical threshold for maintaining bullish momentum.
Resistance levels are marked at $2,704.36 and $2,719.93, with a break above these thresholds paving the way for continued gains.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,656.82, followed by deeper support zones at $2,643.45 and $2,627.40, which could be tested if selling pressure intensifies.
The RSI at 66 indicates mildly overbought conditions, suggesting the potential for short-term consolidation before a renewed move higher. The 50 EMA at $2,656.89 reinforces the bullish outlook, acting as a strong support level.
From a strategic perspective, traders may consider entering long positions above $2,680, with a target of $2,703 and a stop-loss at $2,669. This setup balances risk and reward, capitalizing on sustained buying momentum within the channel.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Channel Holds: Gold maintains upward momentum, pivoting above $2,676 with targets at $2,704 and $2,719.
- RSI Near Overbought: RSI at 66 hints at possible consolidation, but bullish sentiment persists.
- Entry Strategy: Buy above $2,680, with a target of $2,703 and stop-loss at $2,669 for optimized risk management.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,695.49, up 0.05%, holding its position within a steady upward trend on the 4-hour chart. The immediate pivot point at $2,676.07 underscores a critical threshold for maintaining bullish momentum.
Resistance levels are marked at $2,704.36 and $2,719.93, with a break above these thresholds paving the way for continued gains. On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,656.82, followed by deeper support zones at $2,643.45 and $2,627.40, which could be tested if selling pressure intensifies.
The RSI at 66 indicates mildly overbought conditions, suggesting the potential for short-term consolidation before a renewed move higher. The 50 EMA at $2,656.89 reinforces the bullish outlook, acting as a strong support level.
From a strategic perspective, traders may consider entering long positions above $2,680, with a target of $2,703 and a stop-loss at $2,669. This setup balances risk and reward, capitalizing on sustained buying momentum within the channel.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2680
Take Profit – 2703
Stop Loss – 2669
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2300/ -$1100
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$230/ -$110
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Momentum: Sustained above $2,658.36, targeting $2,688.97 and $2,704.36.
- Support Levels: Immediate support at $2,646.20; deeper at $2,617.67.
- RSI & EMA: RSI at 65 signals robust buying; 50 EMA at $2,647.36 reinforces short-term support.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,668.80, up 0.31%, maintaining a bullish stance above its pivot point at $2,658.36. The 4-hour chart reflects strong upward momentum, supported by the 50-day EMA at $2,647.36, which serves as a robust near-term support level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65 indicates sustained buying interest but warns of approaching overbought territory, suggesting possible consolidation ahead.
Immediate resistance is observed at $2,676.72, with further hurdles at $2,688.97 and $2,704.36. These levels present critical milestones for continued bullish momentum.
On the downside, immediate support is situated at $2,646.20, with deeper safety nets at $2,635.36 and $2,617.67. A break below these levels could trigger increased selling pressure, potentially challenging the broader bullish outlook.
The price action reflects a well-defined upward trajectory, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.
A sustained break above $2,676.72 would solidify the bullish narrative, targeting $2,688.97 as the next key level. Conversely, a failure to hold $2,658.36 could signal a bearish retracement, testing immediate support zones.
Gold traders should closely monitor resistance at $2,688.97 and RSI levels to anticipate potential reversals. A cautious approach is advised, with strategic entries above $2,658 and stops placed at $2,646 to manage risk effectively.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2658
Take Profit – 2680
Stop Loss – 2646
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2200/ -$1200
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$220/ -$120