GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the overall risk-off sentiment in the market, gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to face pressure, hovering around the 2,704 mark and reaching an intra-day low of 2,703.
This downward movement seems to be linked to the strengthening US dollar, which gained momentum as expectations rise that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold off on further rate cuts later this month.
As a result, the dollar's strength is putting downward pressure on gold, which tends to have an inverse relationship with the greenback.
On the other hand, the recent announcement of a ceasefire could help ease geopolitical tensions, reducing the uncertainty that typically drives demand for safe-haven assets like gold. With less fear of conflict, investors may start moving towards riskier assets, further weighing on gold prices.
However, the situation isn’t entirely bleak for gold. The uncertainties surrounding US President-elect Donald Trump's trade policies and tariff plans continue to create potential risks for the global economy.
These factors could provide some support to gold prices, preventing them from falling too drastically. For now, gold seems to be caught between the stronger US dollar and geopolitical risks, leaving investors to navigate these mixed signals.
Impact of Weaker US Data and Fed Expectations on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, ended its four-day losing streak and was trading around 109.10.
However, the dollar faced challenges due to weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales and ongoing inflation concerns, leading to market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice this year. This has put pressure on the Greenback, despite a temporary halt in its decline.
The expectation of interest rate cuts has also caused US Treasury bond yields to drop. The 2-year and 10-year yields are both down, currently at 4.23% and 4.60%, respectively. These yields are on track for a decline of more than 3% this week.
Retail Sales data for December rose by just 0.4% month-over-month, reaching $729.2 billion, falling short of the 0.6% rise that analysts expected.
This weaker data, combined with inflation pressures, has fueled the belief that the Fed may need to reduce rates soon.
Moreover, comments from Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee suggest that the US job market is stabilizing, further supporting the view that the Fed might act cautiously.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose 2.9% year-over-year, while the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 3.2%.
Therefore, the weaker US Retail Sales and falling Treasury yields, combined with speculation about Fed rate cuts, support gold prices as a hedge against economic uncertainty. However, stabilizing inflation and a firm US job market may limit gold’s upward momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are trading at $2,712.35, down 0.09%, as the metal remains subdued below the pivot point at $2,716.63.
The yellow metal is consolidating within a tight range, reflecting mixed sentiment driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and lingering market uncertainty.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $2,726.36, with higher levels at $2,738.21 and $2,752.21 presenting significant hurdles. On the downside, support lies at $2,698.01, followed by deeper levels at $2,676.58 and $2,659.46.
The 50-day EMA at $2,676.70 acts as a critical short-term support level, aligning with bullish momentum observed in recent sessions. However, the failure to break above the pivot point indicates cautious bearish sentiment.
A sustained move above $2,716.63 is essential for a shift toward a bullish trajectory, targeting resistance at $2,738. Conversely, a break below $2,698.01 could intensify selling pressure, pushing prices toward $2,676.58.
Traders should monitor the $2,716.63 pivot closely as it serves as a key decision point for market direction. While gold’s broader structure remains slightly bullish, overbought conditions near resistance zones may prompt short-term corrections.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 16, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) remain under heavy pressure, with the precious metal trading near the $2,695 level after hitting a low of $2,690 earlier in the day.
The primary factor behind this decline is the growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will hold off on cutting interest rates later this month. This has boosted the US Dollar (USD), which had previously dipped to a one-week low.
Besides this, the signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US are contributing to the downtrend in gold. The latest economic reports have fueled speculation that the Fed might not completely rule out further rate cuts by year-end, a scenario that typically benefits gold.
However, the decline in US Treasury bond yields has relatively restricted the USD’s upward momentum, offering potential relief for gold in the coming sessions.
Gold's losses have been capped by the ongoing geopolitical risks, notably the uncertainty surrounding former President Trump's tariff plans and their potential impact on global economic growth.
These factors have instilled caution in the market, preventing any sharp drops in gold prices as traders await crucial US economic data.
US Economic Data and Fed Policy Drive Market Sentiment
However, the strength of the US dollar has been sustained by market expectations that the Fed will pause its rate-cutting cycle for now. This anticipation has fueled the USD's recent rally, putting pressure on gold (XAU/USD) and limiting its potential gains.
Recent economic data has contributed to the outlook that the Fed may hold off on further rate cuts. The latest inflation report revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in December, pushing the annual rate up to 2.9% from 2.7% the previous month.
Although the core CPI slowed to 3.2%, it still exceeded expectations, leading to renewed hopes that the Fed might ease rates further by year-end.
In response, US Treasury yields dropped from their 14-month highs, which in turn pushed the US dollar lower, creating space for gold to find some support.
However, comments from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, noting that rates should remain restrictive until inflation targets are firmly in sight, have kept gold’s upside in check.
Geopolitical Risks and Market Uncertainty Amid Ukraine and Gaza Conflicts
On the other hand, the geopolitical risks, particularly in Ukraine and Gaza, continue to add layers of uncertainty to the market. Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine escalates, with military strikes from both sides targeting vital infrastructure, tensions in Gaza remain high despite a recent ceasefire agreement.
Investors remain watchful, particularly with upcoming US economic reports like Retail Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims, which could offer further guidance on market direction.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are trading at $2,691.18, down 0.19% on the day, as the market consolidates near key technical levels. The pivot point at $2,680 serves as a critical threshold, dictating short-term market direction.
Immediate resistance is noted at $2,696.72, with further targets at $2,710.98 and $2,724.66 if bullish momentum continues. On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,664.75, followed by $2,645.00 and deeper support at $2,627.99.
The 50-day EMA, currently at $2,666.75, aligns closely with the first support level, reinforcing the bearish outlook below the pivot point.
A recent test of $2,700 failed to sustain, highlighting selling interest at higher levels. Short-term indicators suggest continued bearish pressure if prices fail to break above the pivot.
Traders should monitor price action around $2,680 closely. A decisive break below this level could trigger selling momentum, targeting $2,664.75 initially, with an extended decline toward $2,645.
Conversely, a sustained move above $2,700 may invalidate the bearish bias and open the door for higher resistance levels.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Critical Pivot Point: $2,680 dictates short-term sentiment; a break below signals further downside risk.
- Resistance Levels: Key resistance at $2,696.72, $2,710.98, and $2,724.66 caps upward momentum.
- EMA Reinforcement: The 50-day EMA at $2,666.75 provides near-term support but aligns with bearish trends below the pivot.
Gold prices are trading at $2,691.18, down 0.19% on the day, as the market consolidates near key technical levels. The pivot point at $2,680 serves as a critical threshold, dictating short-term market direction.
Immediate resistance is noted at $2,696.72, with further targets at $2,710.98 and $2,724.66 if bullish momentum continues. On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,664.75, followed by $2,645.00 and deeper support at $2,627.99.
The 50-day EMA, currently at $2,666.75, aligns closely with the first support level, reinforcing the bearish outlook below the pivot point.
A recent test of $2,700 failed to sustain, highlighting selling interest at higher levels. Short-term indicators suggest continued bearish pressure if prices fail to break above the pivot.
Traders should monitor price action around $2,680 closely. A decisive break below this level could trigger selling momentum, targeting $2,664.75 initially, with an extended decline toward $2,645.
Conversely, a sustained move above $2,700 may invalidate the bearish bias and open the door for higher resistance levels.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2700
Take Profit – 2680
Stop Loss – 2710
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1000
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$100
GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have been on the rise, showing a bullish trend around the 2,681 level and hitting an intra-day peak of 2,683.
This rally in gold can be largely attributed to the recent weakness in the US dollar, which lost momentum after disappointing US December Producer Price Index (PPI) data. As a result, the dollar weakened, and gold began to gain traction.
On the flip side, investor sentiment improved as US President-elect Donald Trump's economic team hinted at gradually increasing import tariffs, a move that has sparked optimism in riskier assets.
This shift in sentiment has somewhat dampened the demand for gold as a safe-haven investment, as investors feel more confident in taking on riskier positions.
Looking ahead, all eyes are now on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This will likely offer further insight into the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rates, and in turn, influence the demand for the US dollar.
The CPI report could play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment and providing momentum for both the US dollar and gold prices, leaving traders keenly awaiting its release for clues on future market movements.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Disappointing Data and Fed's Gradual Rate Cut Outlook
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is currently trading around 109.20. The Greenback has faced some pressure due to disappointing US December Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
The PPI, which tracks changes in prices for goods and services, rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December, falling short of expectations.
On an annual basis, it increased by 3.3%, also below the anticipated 3.4%. This weaker-than-expected data put downward pressure on the dollar, benefiting gold.
In addition, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 256K in December, well above expectations, which had been set at 160K.
This strong jobs report provided some support to the dollar earlier in the week. However, the overall market remains cautious ahead of the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
The CPI report, due later this week, will offer further insight into inflation trends and could influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, including interest rates.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials are preparing for a tighter pace of rate cuts in 2025 than initially anticipated.
Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasized that the Fed’s monetary policy is nearing its long-term equilibrium, suggesting any future rate cuts should be gradual and data-driven.
This approach is creating uncertainty in the market, leaving traders focused on inflation data to guide future expectations for the dollar and gold.
China's Efforts to Support Yuan and Boost Economic Growth May Impact Global Market Sentiment and Gold
Apart from this, the China Foreign Exchange Committee (CFXC) met in Beijing on Monday and pledged to support the Chinese Yuan. The meeting was guided by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), showing the country’s efforts to stabilize its currency.
In a separate announcement, the PBOC and China’s FX regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), revealed that they would increase the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing from 1.5 to 1.75. This change, effective January 13, 2025, is designed to manage capital flows and support the yuan.
PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng also spoke on Monday, highlighting that the central bank will use tools like interest rate adjustments and reserve requirement ratios (RRR) to maintain adequate liquidity in the financial system. This is part of China's broader strategy to keep the economy stable and manage inflation.
Moreover, Governor Gongsheng reaffirmed China’s plans to increase its fiscal deficit, indicating more government spending in the future. He also emphasized that China will continue playing a key role in driving global economic growth.
This support for the yuan and China’s economic policies could have an indirect impact on gold, as traders monitor how these developments affect global market sentiment and the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,684.31, up 0.18%, reflecting continued bullish momentum within a well-defined ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. The price has breached the critical pivot point at $2,676.98, now acting as strong support.
Immediate resistance is seen at $2,696.72, followed by $2,710.98. A sustained breakout above these levels could push gold prices toward the channel's upper boundary at $2,724.66.
On the downside, immediate support is positioned at $2,664.75, with further declines potentially testing $2,645.00 and $2,627.99. The 50-day EMA, currently at $2,661.06, reinforces short-term support, while the broader bullish outlook is underscored by the 200-day EMA at $2,663.98.
Technically, the breakout above $2,676 confirms buyer strength, with a bullish engulfing candle further validating this sentiment. The upward channel suggests room for continuation if resistance levels are decisively breached.
Traders should monitor price action near $2,696, as failure to hold above $2,676 could signal corrective moves toward lower support zones.
The calculated entry point above $2,676 aligns with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1.8. This setup targets a profit of $2,400 per standard lot, while limiting downside exposure to $1,300. Such conditions make gold an attractive asset for short-term bullish strategies.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Momentum: A breakout above $2,676 signals potential gains toward $2,700 and beyond.
- Support Zones: Key support levels at $2,664.75 and $2,645 provide a safety net for corrections.
- Risk-Reward Profile: Favorable setup with a 1:1.8 risk-to-reward ratio, targeting $2,400 per standard lot profit.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,684.31, up 0.18%, reflecting continued bullish momentum within a well-defined ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. The price has breached the critical pivot point at $2,676.98, now acting as strong support.
Immediate resistance is seen at $2,696.72, followed by $2,710.98. A sustained breakout above these levels could push gold prices toward the channel's upper boundary at $2,724.66.
On the downside, immediate support is positioned at $2,664.75, with further declines potentially testing $2,645.00 and $2,627.99. The 50-day EMA, currently at $2,661.06, reinforces short-term support, while the broader bullish outlook is underscored by the 200-day EMA at $2,663.98.
Technically, the breakout above $2,676 confirms buyer strength, with a bullish engulfing candle further validating this sentiment. The upward channel suggests room for continuation if resistance levels are decisively breached.
Traders should monitor price action near $2,696, as failure to hold above $2,676 could signal corrective moves toward lower support zones.
The calculated entry point above $2,676 aligns with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1.8. This setup targets a profit of $2,400 per standard lot, while limiting downside exposure to $1,300. Such conditions make gold an attractive asset for short-term bullish strategies.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2676
Take Profit – 2700
Stop Loss – 2663
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2400/ -$1300
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$240/ -$130
GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward trend, reaching a high of $2,675, fueled by reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s economic advisers are considering a gradual increase in tariffs to avoid inflation spikes.
This news prompted a slight pullback in US Treasury bond yields, lending support to gold, a non-yielding asset. However, despite the boost, the precious metal's upward momentum remains capped, hindered by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates.
On the other hand, the previously released robust US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report from Friday reinforced the Fed’s outlook, fueling expectations for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the US. Consequently, the US Dollar (USD) found support, stalling its recent decline after hitting a two-year peak on Monday.
US Labor Market Data and Federal Reserve Outlook
On the data front, the NFP report for December showed a strong increase of 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations of 160,000 and surpassing the revised November figure.
This has further solidified expectations for a more gradual pace of rate cuts, as emphasized by several Federal Reserve officials.
Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid noted that most of the Fed’s targets have been met, suggesting that any future rate cuts will be slow and data-dependent.
In other developments, China’s central bank pledged to support the Chinese Yuan, and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing.
Meanwhile, inflation in the US, as measured by the TD-MI Inflation Gauge, saw a significant acceleration, climbing by 0.6% month-over-month in December, reinforcing concerns about inflation pressures.
Therefore, the strong NFP report and expectations of slower rate cuts from the Fed support the US Dollar and Treasury yields, limiting gold's upside potential.
Meanwhile, rising US inflation concerns may pressure gold as a non-yielding asset, reducing its appeal.
As traders await the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, the market remains in wait-and-see mode for further economic data and developments that could influence the direction of gold and broader markets.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,669.19, up 0.22%, as the metal sustains modest upward momentum, driven by a retreat in U.S. Treasury bond yields. The price remains above the critical pivot point at $2,687.13, signaling a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance stands at $2,696.72, with higher targets at $2,710.98 and $2,724.66. On the downside, key support levels are at $2,645.00, followed by $2,627.99 and $2,614.89, providing strong safety nets for potential corrections.
The 50-day EMA at $2,657.96 underscores short-term support, confirming that the broader trend remains upward. However, gold's momentum is tempered by the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy outlook and steady U.S. bond yields, which cap significant price gains.
A sustained break above $2,696.72 could pave the way for higher levels, while a drop below $2,687.13 may trigger selling pressure, potentially testing lower supports.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals neutral territory, suggesting limited immediate momentum but scope for a directional breakout. Traders should monitor the $2,687.13 pivot closely; holding above it supports bullish continuation, while a breach could indicate bearish pressure.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Pivot: Gold remains bullish above $2,687.13; resistance is at $2,696.72, with upside targets at $2,710.98 and $2,724.66.
- Support Levels: Immediate support lies at $2,645.00, with deeper levels at $2,627.99 and $2,614.89.
- Indicators: 50-day EMA at $2,657.96 confirms near-term strength; RSI reflects neutral momentum, signaling potential volatility.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,669.19, up 0.22%, as the metal sustains modest upward momentum, driven by a retreat in U.S. Treasury bond yields. The price remains above the critical pivot point at $2,687.13, signaling a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance stands at $2,696.72, with higher targets at $2,710.98 and $2,724.66. On the downside, key support levels are at $2,645.00, followed by $2,627.99 and $2,614.89, providing strong safety nets for potential corrections.
The 50-day EMA at $2,657.96 underscores short-term support, confirming that the broader trend remains upward. However, gold's momentum is tempered by the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy outlook and steady U.S. bond yields, which cap significant price gains.
A sustained break above $2,696.72 could pave the way for higher levels, while a drop below $2,687.13 may trigger selling pressure, potentially testing lower supports.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals neutral territory, suggesting limited immediate momentum but scope for a directional breakout. Traders should monitor the $2,687.13 pivot closely; holding above it supports bullish continuation, while a breach could indicate bearish pressure.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2663
Take Profit – 2687
Stop Loss – 2650
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2400/ -$1300
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$240/ -$130
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Key Pivot: Gold's bullish potential hinges on breaking $2,679.88 resistance.
- Price Targets: Immediate resistance at $2,705.44; support at $2,663.62.
- Indicators: 50 EMA at $2,652.30 supports upward bias; RSI shows limited momentum.
Gold prices are trading at $2,686.40, down 0.12% on the day, as markets navigate between conflicting technical signals. The 4-hour chart highlights $2,679.88 as the critical pivot point.
A break above this level could push prices toward immediate resistance at $2,705.44, with further targets at $2,724.66 and $2,741.68. However, if prices fail to hold above $2,679.88, immediate support lies at $2,663.62, followed by stronger levels at $2,645.00 and $2,614.89.
The 50-day EMA at $2,652.30 confirms a bullish undertone, with prices consistently trading above this average.
However, the RSI signals consolidation, suggesting reduced momentum. Traders should monitor for a potential breakout above $2,680 to confirm a bullish continuation. On the downside, a break below $2,663 could lead to a sharper decline.
The current strategy suggests entering long positions above $2,680 with a target of $2,704, placing stop-loss orders at $2,663 to manage risk effectively.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2680
Take Profit – 2704
Stop Loss – 2663
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2400/ -$1700
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$240/ -$170
GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to halt their bearish trend, lingering around the 2,687 mark and touching an intra-day low of 2,679.
However, the main catalyst for this decline was stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which suggested a healthier job market and reduced the likelihood of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This provided a boost to the U.S. dollar, further pressuring gold prices.
Traders, who had initially hoped for rate cuts, quickly adjusted their expectations after the robust nonfarm payrolls report, which dampened the outlook for future rate reductions.
As a result, gold's appeal as a safe haven diminished, with higher interest rates making non-interest-bearing assets like gold less attractive.
However, gold prices did not experience a sharp decline due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, particularly with the potential changes under U.S. leadership. This uncertainty has kept some demand for gold intact.
US Labor Data and Fed's Hawkish Stance Push Gold Lower
On the U.S. front, the US dollar remains strong, holding near a two-year peak, while U.S. Treasury yields have stayed elevated at their highest levels in over a year. This strength in the USD and yields has put pressure on gold prices, which do not offer yield.
The catalyst for this shift is the upbeat U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its rate-cutting cycle this month.
On the data front, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, significantly surpassing market expectations of 160,000, as well as the previous month's figure of 212,000. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate dropped unexpectedly to 4.1% from 4.2%.
Despite these positive numbers, there was some relief for inflation concerns as annual wage growth, measured by Average Hourly Earnings, slowed to 3.9%.
This strong labor market data highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy, diminishing the likelihood of further rate cuts.
Therefore, the strong U.S. labor market data, including robust Nonfarm Payrolls and lower unemployment, reduces the likelihood of Fed rate cuts.
This strengthens the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, making gold less attractive, leading to downward pressure on its price.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand, Supporting Gold Prices
On the geopolitical front, persistent global tensions have heightened investor demand for safer assets, providing some support for gold prices.
Recent developments, including increased sanctions by the U.S. and U.K. against Russia’s oil industry, have added to market uncertainty.
These sanctions, targeting nearly 200 vessels in Russia’s shadow fleet, have further strained the global market.
Moreover, ongoing military actions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated, with reports of intensified strikes by Russian forces on Ukrainian military targets, including airfields and vehicles.
The continued use of drones, missiles, and artillery underscores the growing instability, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Tensions in the Middle East also remain elevated, with violations of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as ongoing Israeli strikes in Gaza.
These geopolitical uncertainties have further fueled demand for gold, as investors seek protection from increasing instability in key regions around the world.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are trading at $2,686.40, down 0.12% on the day, as markets navigate between conflicting technical signals. The 4-hour chart highlights $2,679.88 as the critical pivot point.
A break above this level could push prices toward immediate resistance at $2,705.44, with further targets at $2,724.66 and $2,741.68. However, if prices fail to hold above $2,679.88, immediate support lies at $2,663.62, followed by stronger levels at $2,645.00 and $2,614.89.
The 50-day EMA at $2,652.30 confirms a bullish undertone, with prices consistently trading above this average.
However, the RSI signals consolidation, suggesting reduced momentum. Traders should monitor for a potential breakout above $2,680 to confirm a bullish continuation. On the downside, a break below $2,663 could lead to a sharper decline.
The current strategy suggests entering long positions above $2,680 with a target of $2,704, placing stop-loss orders at $2,663 to manage risk effectively.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices have been climbing steadily, recently reaching around $2,674 per ounce, with a peak at $2,675. This upward trend is largely due to ongoing uncertainties about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions. These factors are making investors nervous, leading them to seek the safety of gold.
Gold is often seen as a safe investment during times of economic or political instability. As concerns grow over potential tariffs and global conflicts, more people are turning to gold to protect their wealth.
Another reason why gold is rising is because people expect Trump's expansionary policies could lead to higher inflation, making gold a good way to protect against rising prices. This has helped keep gold strong in the market.
At the same time, there’s a belief that the Federal Reserve might ease up on cutting interest rates, which has helped keep US Treasury bond yields high and the US Dollar close to a two-year peak.
A stronger dollar could make gold less attractive though, as it becomes more expensive for people holding other currencies.
Traders are also cautious and waiting for the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence market sentiment. Nonetheless, the XAU/USD pair is still on track to finish the week with gains, marking its second consecutive week of upward movement.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Fed's Hawkish Signals and Economic Data
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar’s performance against six major currencies, remains steady above 109.00.
The dollar has gained support from hawkish signals in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and uncertainties surrounding the incoming Trump administration’s trade and tariff plans.
These factors have kept the Greenback strong, with the Federal Reserve signaling that controlling inflation may take longer than expected.
The minutes mentioned that recent inflation readings have been hotter than anticipated, and changes in trade and immigration policies under Trump could delay efforts to manage inflation.
In addition, Federal Reserve officials are working hard to address market reactions to a much slower pace of rate cuts in 2025 than many had expected.
Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid recently stated that the Fed has met most of its targets and that interest rate policy is approaching a long-term balance.
He emphasized that future rate cuts should be gradual and based on economic data. On the economic data front, US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 201,000 for the week ending January 3, beating expectations.
Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Change in December was 122K, below the expected 140K. The ISM Services PMI for November rose to 54.1, above the forecast of 53.3, signaling growth in the services sector.
However, the Prices Paid Index, which tracks inflation, rose sharply, indicating that inflationary pressures remain a concern.
Therefore, the strengthening US Dollar, driven by hawkish Federal Reserve signals and inflation concerns, could limit gold’s price gains.
Hence, the stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand and weighing on its value.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,673.04, reflecting modest gains as it holds above the pivot point at $2,663.62. The 4-hour chart indicates a cautiously bullish sentiment, with immediate resistance at $2,687.65.
A breakout above this level could propel prices toward the next targets of $2,704.34 and $2,724.66. On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,662.44, with deeper levels at $2,603.20 and $2,583.91.
The 50 EMA at $2,641.87 reinforces the short-term bullish momentum, as the price remains above this level. RSI readings hover near neutral, suggesting room for further upside if bullish momentum strengthens.
However, traders should monitor price action closely near the pivot, as a sustained break below $2,663.62 could shift sentiment bearish, driving a move toward key support at $2,624.44.
Market participants are focused on geopolitical risks and upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
These factors could significantly influence gold's near-term trajectory. A close above $2,687.65 would validate bullish momentum, targeting higher resistance levels. Conversely, failure to hold above the pivot risks a deeper pullback to the lower support zones.
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