Daily Price Outlook
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) sustained its bullish trend and remained trading well around new all-time highs near the $2,820 level. However, the upticks were mainly supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, as China retaliated against recent US tariffs.
Over the weekend, Beijing announced a 15% tariff on US energy imports like coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a 10% tariff on American oil and agricultural equipment.
Moreover, China launched an antitrust investigation into Google, adding more uncertainty to global markets. This has led to a choppy trading session, with investors unsure about the long-term impact of these trade actions.
On the economic side, there are no major events before Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move.
However, traders will keep an eye on JOLTS Job Openings data later in the day, which gives insights into the US job market. Also, two key Fed officials, Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly, will speak, possibly hinting at future interest rate decisions.
US Dollar Weakness and Trade Tensions Support Safe-Haven Demand Amid Economic Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar was unable to stop its losing momentum and remained under pressure as traders assessed economic data and Federal Reserve signals. The CME FedWatch tool showed an 86.5% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March, with only a 13.5% chance of a rate cut.
Fed officials, including Austan Goolsbee, emphasized the need for caution, warning that inflation could rise again. Meanwhile, US Manufacturing PMI data showed better-than-expected growth, rising to 50.9 in January, signaling expansion in the sector.
On the trade front, China retaliated against US tariffs by targeting select American companies and placing levies on US energy and agricultural products.
However, analysts believe China’s response was measured, avoiding major escalation while still sending a warning to former US President Donald Trump.
The tariffs will take effect on February 10, leaving room for potential negotiations. Meanwhile, Trump threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they introduce an alternative currency to challenge the US dollar.
Therefore, the US dollar’s weakness and ongoing trade tensions could support gold prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets. However, stronger US economic data and cautious Fed signals may limit gains, keeping gold in a consolidation phase until fresh catalysts emerge.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,814.11, marginally down by 0.01%, reflecting a cautious market stance ahead of key U.S. economic data releases. The price action remains above the pivotal level at $2,808.60, which continues to act as a key inflection point for traders.
Sustained moves above this pivot point suggest bullish momentum, with immediate resistance located at $2,830.19. A breakout above this level could trigger further buying interest, potentially targeting $2,848.35 and, in an extended rally, $2,871.03.
On the downside, gold finds immediate support at $2,782.04. A breach below this level could open the door for a deeper pullback toward $2,752.15 and possibly $2,730.45 if bearish pressure intensifies.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,772.52 offers dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish bias as long as prices hold above this key technical marker.
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