GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) failed to extend its upward trend and edged lower around the $2,791 level on Friday, retreating from its recent record high. The decline comes as investors remain cautious due to the Federal Reserve’s firm stance on interest rates, a stronger US dollar, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Gold Faces Pressure from Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance
However, the major factor weighing on gold prices is the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause interest rate cuts for the first time since its easing cycle began in September.
The central bank’s cautious approach has led to a slight rise in US Treasury bond yields, strengthening the US dollar and limiting gold’s upside potential.
As a result, traders are hesitant to make aggressive bullish bets until they receive more clarity from upcoming economic data.
Moreover, the Fed has signaled that it will not rush to lower borrowing costs unless inflation and employment data justify such action. This has kept the US dollar strong, reducing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset.
US Tariff Threats and Geopolitical Risks Boost Safe-Haven Demand
Despite the pullback in gold prices, demand for the precious metal remains supported by ongoing global uncertainties. US President Donald Trump’s renewed threats to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, along with potential 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they challenge the US dollar’s dominance, have raised investor concerns.
Moreover, heightened geopolitical tensions have added to market instability. Japan’s Joint Staff Office reported that Russian bombers, accompanied by fighter jets, flew an eight-hour mission over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan, escalating regional concerns.
Economic Data in Focus: US PCE Price Index Awaited
On the economic front, weaker-than-expected US GDP growth of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024—down from the previous 3.1%—has raised recession fears. This could fuel fresh interest in gold as a hedge against economic downturns.
However, market participants remain cautious ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release, scheduled for later on Friday.
As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE data will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and influencing gold’s next move.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory, holding near $2,795.88, with bullish momentum intact. The metal is trading above the pivot level of $2,788.36, signaling further upside potential.
Immediate resistance is seen at $2,814.11, followed by key levels at $2,826.85 and $2,840.38. A decisive break above these thresholds could propel gold toward fresh highs as investor sentiment remains strong amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
On the downside, $2,772.24 remains critical support, with further downside risk extending to $2,748.57 and $2,730.88 if bearish momentum intensifies. The 50-day EMA at $2,757.74 continues to provide dynamic support, reinforcing the broader bullish structure.
Technical indicators suggest a strong buying bias above $2,788. The recent pullback found support at key technical levels, allowing buyers to re-enter the market. The upward trend remains valid as long as prices hold above $2,788. However, a sustained move below this level could shift sentiment, prompting a corrective pullback.
For now, traders are closely watching resistance at $2,814.11. If breached, the next upside targets are $2,826.85 and $2,840.38. Conversely, failure to hold above $2,788 may invite selling pressure, with a potential retest of lower support levels.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) is facing challenges in stopping its bearish trend, although it has found strong support around $2,779 level. However, the recovery is mainly due to a drop in US Treasury bond yields, which has given gold some relief. Apart from this, concerns over the economic impact of former US President Donald Trump's tariff plans are increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Gold Gains Support from Rate Cut Expectations
On one hand, Trump's calls for lower interest rates and signs of slowing inflation in the US have raised expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may ease its policies further. If interest rates drop, gold becomes more attractive since it does not yield interest like bonds or savings accounts.
On the flip side, the Fed's recent decision to pause rate hikes has supported the US dollar, keeping a lid on gold's gains. In the meantime, the strong risk sentiment in financial markets is also limiting gold's upside potential.
Stronger US Dollar and Trade Policies Keep Gold Under Pressure
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady around 108.00 after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in its January meeting. This was expected as the Fed had already cut rates three times since September 2024, reducing them by a full percentage point.
The US Dollar strengthened after the Fed took a cautious stance, with Chair Jerome Powell stating that further rate cuts would depend on clear signs of lower inflation or weakness in the labor market. A stronger US Dollar puts pressure on gold prices, as it makes the metal more expensive for foreign buyers.
Adding to market concerns, former Trump Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans for new US import tariffs, starting at 2.5% and potentially rising to 20%. This aggressive trade policy could lead to economic uncertainty, influencing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
If these tariffs disrupt global trade or trigger retaliation from other countries, investors might turn to gold as a hedge against market volatility. However, in the short term, the stronger US Dollar limits gold’s upside potential, keeping prices under pressure unless economic conditions weaken further.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is trading near $2,759.71, slightly down 0.01%, as it consolidates around the $2,752.72 pivot point. The 50-day EMA at $2,758.53 is offering critical support, indicating a cautious but potentially bullish outlook if prices hold above this level.
Immediate resistance stands at $2,772.57, with further barriers at $2,786.26 and $2,800.25. A breakout above $2,772.57 could trigger buying momentum, targeting higher levels as sentiment shifts positively.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $2,730.85, followed by $2,717.11 and $2,703.56. A decisive break below $2,730.85 could expose gold to increased selling pressure, pushing prices toward deeper support zones.
The current consolidation phase suggests traders are awaiting a catalyst—whether from economic data, Federal Reserve policy signals, or geopolitical developments—to define the next directional move.
A buy signal above $2,752 aligns with a take profit target at $2,772 and a stop loss at $2,741, offering a balanced risk-reward setup for those favoring a bullish stance.
Gold’s resilience near the 50-day EMA and key support levels indicates that buyers are defending the uptrend.
However, the proximity to immediate resistance requires a cautious approach, as failure to breach $2,772.57 could result in a pullback toward support.
Traders should closely monitor volume trends and macroeconomic announcements for cues that might drive gold beyond its current range.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold consolidates near $2,752.72 pivot; key resistance at $2,772.57.
- 50-day EMA at $2,758.53 supports cautious bullish outlook.
- Break below $2,730.85 may lead to deeper declines; watch for volume cues.
Gold is trading near $2,759.71, slightly down 0.01%, as it consolidates around the $2,752.72 pivot point. The 50-day EMA at $2,758.53 is offering critical support, indicating a cautious but potentially bullish outlook if prices hold above this level.
Immediate resistance stands at $2,772.57, with further barriers at $2,786.26 and $2,800.25. A breakout above $2,772.57 could trigger buying momentum, targeting higher levels as sentiment shifts positively.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $2,730.85, followed by $2,717.11 and $2,703.56. A decisive break below $2,730.85 could expose gold to increased selling pressure, pushing prices toward deeper support zones.
The current consolidation phase suggests traders are awaiting a catalyst—whether from economic data, Federal Reserve policy signals, or geopolitical developments—to define the next directional move.
A buy signal above $2,752 aligns with a take profit target at $2,772 and a stop loss at $2,741, offering a balanced risk-reward setup for those favoring a bullish stance.
Gold’s resilience near the 50-day EMA and key support levels indicates that buyers are defending the uptrend.
However, the proximity to immediate resistance requires a cautious approach, as failure to breach $2,772.57 could result in a pullback toward support.
Traders should closely monitor volume trends and macroeconomic announcements for cues that might drive gold beyond its current range.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2752
Take Profit – 2772
Stop Loss – 2741
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1100
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$110
GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) is unable to stop its losing streak and is still flashing red around the 2,762 level, hitting an intra-day low of 2,757.
However, the main reason for this downward trend seems to be the overall positive mood in the stock markets, which reduces the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Investors are more focused on the stronger performance of equities, which is keeping gold prices under pressure.
Moreover, traders are being cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. The Fed is expected to announce its plans later today, and this is creating uncertainty in the market, making people hesitate to make big moves in either direction.
Despite this, there are some factors still supporting gold including bets that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in 2025, along with falling US Treasury yields and some weakness in the US Dollar, are giving gold some backing.
Plus, ongoing concerns about US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans could be driving some investors to seek safe-haven assets, which helps limit gold's decline.
Traders are mainly waiting for the Fed’s decision, which will likely set the direction for the USD and gold prices in the near term.
US Dollar Holds Steady as Investors Await Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Monitor Trade Policy Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been holding steady around the 108.00 mark. Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates, which is expected to take center stage later in the North American session. The Fed’s cautious approach to monetary policy continues to support the value of the US dollar.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, market expectations show almost 100% certainty that the Fed will keep its interest rate within the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. However, traders are still keenly watching the press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for any clues on future policy moves.
At the same time, market uncertainty is rising due to potential changes in US trade policies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, under former President Donald Trump, has proposed new tariffs on US imports, starting at 2.5% and possibly increasing to 20%.
Trump himself has stated he wants even higher tariffs, though no final decision has been made. If these tariffs are introduced, they could lead to higher inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates. This would support the US Dollar further, potentially keeping gold under pressure.
However, if the Fed hints at more rate cuts in the future, it could weaken the dollar, giving gold some room to recover. Meanwhile, concerns over rising inflation from Trump’s tariff plans might push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
China's Economic Weakness and Stimulus Measures: Impact on Gold Prices
Apart from this, China's latest economic data has shown signs of weakness, which could impact global markets, including gold. The NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1 in December, falling below expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.2 from 52.2.
A weaker Chinese economy can reduce demand for commodities, including gold, as China is one of the world's largest gold consumers. This could put pressure on gold prices, especially if investors worry about slowing economic growth.
To support its struggling equity market, China has introduced new stimulus measures. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved a second round of long-term stock investment programs worth 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). This move aims to boost investor confidence and stabilize the market.
If China's economy improves due to these efforts, it could strengthen demand for gold. However, if the measures fail to revive economic growth, gold may remain under pressure due to lower demand from China.
In addition to this, China’s industrial profits declined by 3.3% in 2024, marking the third straight year of contraction.
This reflects ongoing challenges like weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a struggling property sector. If economic concerns persist, investors may seek safe-haven assets like gold, helping to limit its downside.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to edge lower, trading at $2,760.56, down 0.10%, as the metal struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price remains under pressure below the pivot point at $2,766.14, signaling a cautious outlook. Technical indicators suggest gold is at a critical juncture, with the 50-day EMA at $2,756.96 acting as immediate dynamic support.
A sustained break below $2,765 would reinforce selling pressure, potentially leading to declines toward immediate support at $2,749.27. Further downside risks emerge at $2,730.85, followed by $2,717.11, where buyers may attempt to regain control.
On the upside, gold faces strong resistance at $2,782.18, a breakout above which could signal bullish momentum, with next resistance levels at $2,794.55 and $2,804.06. However, the prevailing trend remains bearish as long as gold struggles below the pivot.
The broader market sentiment hinges on Federal Reserve policy expectations and tariff uncertainties. With economic data providing mixed signals, traders remain cautious, awaiting a clearer directional bias. A sell position below $2,765, targeting $2,743, with a stop-loss at $2,778, aligns with current market structure.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold remains bearish below $2,766; support at $2,749 and $2,730.
- 50-day EMA at $2,756 acts as short-term support, limiting downside.
- A break above $2,782 could shift momentum, but sellers dominate below pivot.
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to edge lower, trading at $2,760.56, down 0.10%, as the metal struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price remains under pressure below the pivot point at $2,766.14, signaling a cautious outlook. Technical indicators suggest gold is at a critical juncture, with the 50-day EMA at $2,756.96 acting as immediate dynamic support.
A sustained break below $2,765 would reinforce selling pressure, potentially leading to declines toward immediate support at $2,749.27. Further downside risks emerge at $2,730.85, followed by $2,717.11, where buyers may attempt to regain control.
On the upside, gold faces strong resistance at $2,782.18, a breakout above which could signal bullish momentum, with next resistance levels at $2,794.55 and $2,804.06. However, the prevailing trend remains bearish as long as gold struggles below the pivot.
The broader market sentiment hinges on Federal Reserve policy expectations and tariff uncertainties. With economic data providing mixed signals, traders remain cautious, awaiting a clearer directional bias. A sell position below $2,765, targeting $2,743, with a stop-loss at $2,778, aligns with current market structure.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2765
Take Profit – 2743
Stop Loss – 2778
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2200/ -$1300
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$220/ -$130
GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggled to stop its bearish trend and turned bullish around the 2,744 level, reaching an intra-day high of 2,745.
However, the rise in demand for the dollar was mainly caused by renewed inflation worries due to US President Donald Trump's trade tariff threats.
These concerns led to a slight recovery in US Treasury bond yields, which helped the USD rise from its lowest point since December 18.
Despite this, gold losses may be limited because many expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice by the end of the year.
Trump's comments about pushing for immediate rate cuts also support this idea, which could prevent US bond yields and the dollar from rising too much.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Trade Uncertainty and Mixed Economic Data
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been trading near the 108.00 mark, as tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's strength against six major currencies.
Traders are closely watching key economic reports like the US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which could influence market sentiment.
The US dollar has been gaining strength amid uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies.
Meanwhile, recent US economic data showed mixed signals. The S&P Global Composite PMI dropped to 52.4 in January, while the Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.1.
Trump, however, has expressed his desire for the Fed to cut interest rates immediately, especially with falling oil prices.
This could pressure inflation and limit the Fed's ability to make aggressive rate cuts, especially as the January meeting approaches. Traders expect the Fed to hold rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Therefore, the US dollar's strength and mixed economic data may put pressure on gold prices, as a stronger dollar typically makes gold more expensive. However, expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady could limit further downside for gold.
China's Economic Slowdown Sparks Global Uncertainty, Supporting Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal
On the China front, China's NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, falling short of expectations.
This signals a contraction in manufacturing activity, as a reading below 50 indicates a decline. Similarly, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.2 in January from 52.2 in December, showing weaker growth in services and construction.
Moreover, China’s Industrial Profits saw a decline of 3.3% year-over-year in 2024, totaling CNY 7,431.05 billion.
Although this decline was slightly smaller than the 4.7% drop in the first 11 months of 2023, it marks the third consecutive year of falling profits.
This ongoing downturn reflects weaker demand, rising deflationary pressures, and struggles within China’s property sector.
These weak economic indicators from China contribute to global market uncertainty. As one of the world's largest economies, China’s slowdown can have a ripple effect on other markets, including commodities like gold.
A weaker Chinese economy may increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, potentially supporting its price.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are hovering at $2,740.99, posting a marginal gain of 0.02% as investors weigh market sentiment ahead of key economic events.
The pivot point at $2,745.39 remains a critical inflection zone; a sustained move below this level could signal further downside pressure.
Immediate support stands at $2,721.21, with extended declines targeting $2,706.09 and $2,689.39 if bearish momentum intensifies.
On the upside, immediate resistance is positioned at $2,763.67, with additional barriers at $2,786.25 and $2,804.06. A bullish breakout above these levels could reignite upside momentum, challenging recent highs.
However, gold remains vulnerable to short-term volatility, particularly amid fluctuating bond yields and shifting market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the 50-EMA at $2,756.89 currently acts as a dynamic resistance, reinforcing selling pressure near the pivot.
Failure to break above this level suggests that gold remains bearish in the near term, aligning with the broader corrective trend.
Traders should watch for a decisive break below $2,745 to confirm continued selling momentum, with $2,720 as a near-term target.
Conversely, a strong bounce from current levels could set the stage for a potential reversal, contingent on economic catalysts and broader risk sentiment.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish bias below $2,745 – Gold remains under pressure, with further downside potential toward $2,720 and $2,706.
- 50-EMA as resistance – Gold struggles to reclaim $2,756.89, reinforcing bearish sentiment in the short term.
- Trade setup – Sell below $2,745, with a take profit target at $2,720 and a stop loss at $2,758 to manage risk effectively.
Gold prices are hovering at $2,740.99, posting a marginal gain of 0.02% as investors weigh market sentiment ahead of key economic events.
The pivot point at $2,745.39 remains a critical inflection zone; a sustained move below this level could signal further downside pressure.
Immediate support stands at $2,721.21, with extended declines targeting $2,706.09 and $2,689.39 if bearish momentum intensifies.
On the upside, immediate resistance is positioned at $2,763.67, with additional barriers at $2,786.25 and $2,804.06. A bullish breakout above these levels could reignite upside momentum, challenging recent highs.
However, gold remains vulnerable to short-term volatility, particularly amid fluctuating bond yields and shifting market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the 50-EMA at $2,756.89 currently acts as a dynamic resistance, reinforcing selling pressure near the pivot.
Failure to break above this level suggests that gold remains bearish in the near term, aligning with the broader corrective trend.
Traders should watch for a decisive break below $2,745 to confirm continued selling momentum, with $2,720 as a near-term target.
Conversely, a strong bounce from current levels could set the stage for a potential reversal, contingent on economic catalysts and broader risk sentiment.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2745
Take Profit – 2720
Stop Loss – 2758
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1300
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$130
GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure as it trades near $2,750, down 0.65% in the European session on Monday. The drop is mainly due to the US Dollar (USD) recovering from its recent low, which weakens gold’s appeal.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump's announcement of tariffs on all Colombian imports has sparked fresh trade war worries, reducing investor interest in riskier assets.
At the same time, growing concerns about the global economy have driven demand for safe-haven assets.
The Federal Reserve’s potential plan to cut interest rates twice this year is also weighing on US Treasury bond yields. This could limit the USD's gains, providing some support for gold prices despite the decline.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Data and Trade Uncertainty, Pressuring Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining traction after rebounding from a monthly low of 107.22. This rise in the dollar comes amid uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies.
The situation may influence the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts, which has kept pressure on gold prices.
On the data front, the latest data from S&P Global shows a mixed picture for the US economy. The US Composite PMI dropped to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December, while the Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.1, exceeding expectations.
However, the Services PMI fell to 52.8, missing the forecast and showing weaker growth in the services sector. Despite these figures, Trump’s comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos, calling for immediate interest rate cuts, have added uncertainty to the market.
On Sunday, he announced a 25% emergency tariff on all Colombian goods, which raised tensions. However, by Monday, Colombia agreed to the terms, resolving the issue.
Despite this, gold prices remain under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts, making it harder for gold to gain momentum.
China's Economic Struggles and Market Measures Could Boost Gold Demand as Safe-Haven Asset
On the other hand, Chinese authorities are taking steps to stabilize their stock markets by introducing measures to boost investments.
Pension funds have been allowed to increase investments in domestic equities, and a pilot scheme for insurers to purchase equities is set to launch in early 2025 with a scale of at least 100 billion Yuan.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has also announced plans to expand liquidity tools to support share purchases, aiming to restore confidence in the market.
Despite these efforts, economic data from China highlights ongoing challenges. Industrial profits fell by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of contraction.
Hence, the weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector continue to weigh on China’s economic performance, further denting investor sentiment. This has fueled concerns about China’s growth outlook, which could indirectly support gold demand as a safe-haven asset.
On the data front, the latest PMI data reflects weaker activity in China. The Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January, falling below the key 50 level, indicating contraction.
Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2, signaling slower growth in the services sector. These economic concerns in the world’s second-largest economy may bolster safe-haven flows into gold, offsetting some pressure from a stronger US dollar.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing downward pressure, currently trading at $2,755.43, down 0.56% in today’s session. The precious metal remains below key resistance levels, with bearish sentiment prevailing as investors eye the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.
Gold prices are testing the immediate support level of $2,753.77, aligning with the 50-day EMA at $2,753.96. A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, potentially driving prices toward the next support at $2,735.77, followed by $2,718.32.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2,782.81, which aligns with recent swing highs. A sustained breakout above this level could trigger further buying momentum, targeting the next resistance zones at $2,797.37 and $2,813.75.
However, market sentiment remains cautious, with investors focusing on inflation data and the Fed’s interest rate outlook, which may influence gold’s short-term trajectory.
The 50-day EMA is providing dynamic support, but a break below could suggest a shift in market sentiment, leading to further downside risks.
If gold maintains support above $2,750, it could present a buying opportunity with a target towards $2,782. Conversely, failure to hold above this level may reinforce bearish momentum.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold hovers around critical support at $2,753, with the 50 EMA offering a key decision point.
- A breakout above $2,782 could trigger bullish momentum, targeting higher resistance levels.
- A drop below $2,753 could signal further downside, eyeing supports at $2,735 and below.
Gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing downward pressure, currently trading at $2,755.43, down 0.56% in today’s session. The precious metal remains below key resistance levels, with bearish sentiment prevailing as investors eye the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.
Gold prices are testing the immediate support level of $2,753.77, aligning with the 50-day EMA at $2,753.96. A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, potentially driving prices toward the next support at $2,735.77, followed by $2,718.32.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2,782.81, which aligns with recent swing highs. A sustained breakout above this level could trigger further buying momentum, targeting the next resistance zones at $2,797.37 and $2,813.75.
However, market sentiment remains cautious, with investors focusing on inflation data and the Fed’s interest rate outlook, which may influence gold’s short-term trajectory.
The 50-day EMA is providing dynamic support, but a break below could suggest a shift in market sentiment, leading to further downside risks.
If gold maintains support above $2,750, it could present a buying opportunity with a target towards $2,782. Conversely, failure to hold above this level may reinforce bearish momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2750
Take Profit – 2782
Stop Loss – 2731
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3200/ -$1900
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$320/ -$190
GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward momentum on Friday, trading near the $2,774 level and reaching an intraday high of $2,777 during the European session. This bullish run can be traced to several key factors influencing market sentiment.
However, the major driver was the weakening US Dollar (USD), triggered by comments from US President Donald Trump, who signaled a preference for avoiding tariffs on China. His remarks led to a drop in US Treasury bond yields, which in turn pushed the USD to a fresh monthly low.
Moreover, speculation about further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been heating up. Investors anticipate that lower interest rates will continue to weaken the USD, enhancing gold’s role as an attractive alternative investment.
Impact of Trump's Comments on US Dollar and Federal Reserve's Upcoming Decisions
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar has been losing traction but still it is holding above the 108.00 level. This suggests the dollar is performing well compared to other currencies.
Former President Donald Trump recently spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, calling for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates immediately. He argued that with oil prices dropping, the Fed should cut rates to support the economy.
His remarks came ahead of the Fed's scheduled meeting on January 28 and 29, where traders expect the central bank to keep interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.
Trump’s comments could put pressure on the US dollar as they come just before the Fed’s meeting, with market expectations for the central bank to hold rates steady.
Moreover, Trump's policies might increase inflation, which could limit the Fed's ability to cut rates further. This situation creates uncertainty, and traders are closely watching the Fed's actions and any potential impact on inflation and the US dollar.
China's Stock Market Stabilization Efforts and Their Potential Impact on Gold Prices
On the other hand, Chinese authorities are taking steps to stabilize their stock markets, which could have an impact on global gold prices.
On Thursday, they announced measures such as allowing pension funds to invest more in domestic stocks and introducing a pilot scheme for insurers to buy equities in 2025, with an initial investment of at least 100 billion Yuan. These actions aim to support the stock market by boosting investments.
Apart from this, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) stated that it would increase liquidity tools to help fund share purchases when needed. This could lead to more liquidity in the market, potentially reducing the demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset.
If these measures help stabilize China's markets, it could lower some of the risk appetite in global markets, influencing Gold prices to move lower as investors shift towards equities and other riskier assets.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are trading at $2,774.26, reflecting a 0.70% increase, as the precious metal gains momentum above key technical levels.
The price remains above the pivot point at $2,763.20, signaling bullish strength, with immediate resistance at $2,785.22. A break above this level could pave the way for further upside toward $2,796.49 and potentially $2,807.41.
On the downside, immediate support is positioned at $2,748.23, followed by deeper levels at $2,736.39 and $2,722.33.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,738.54 acts as a crucial support zone, reinforcing the broader bullish outlook. Holding above this level suggests sustained buying interest, keeping the uptrend intact.
The recent price action indicates strong bullish sentiment, with buyers showing resilience at key support levels. A decisive break above the resistance at $2,785.22 could attract further buying, targeting higher resistance zones.
However, failure to sustain above the pivot level of $2,763.20 may trigger a corrective move, testing immediate support.
From a technical perspective, the market structure remains favorable for bulls as long as the price holds above the pivot.
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