Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) regained its bullish trend and edged higher around the 2,943 level. The main reason for this upward movement is the market's cautious approach ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, which could give hints about the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans.
Investors are hesitant, waiting for more clarity on whether the Fed will cut rates, which directly impacts the US Dollar (USD). Hence, the weaker USD generally boosts gold prices since it becomes cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
Meanwhile, expectations of further rate cuts are keeping the USD under pressure, supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Moreover, the ongoing concerns over a potential global trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump's tariff plans are boosting the safe-haven appeal of gold.
However, the absence of strong selling pressure also indicates that gold might continue to rise. As a result, even if gold experiences a temporary pullback, it is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity, keeping prices well-supported.
Gold Gains Strength as US Dollar Weakens Amid Economic Uncertainty
As we mentioned above, gold is rising again, and this is due to the US dollar losing traction in the wake of fresh economic and political developments. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, has dropped to around 107.00.
At the same time, US Treasury yields stand at 4.29% for the 2-year note and 4.55% for the 10-year note. This decline in the dollar is making gold more attractive to investors, as a weaker USD reduces the cost of gold for international buyers, increasing demand.
Another factor supporting gold’s bullish trend is uncertainty over US interest rates and global trade policies. Federal Reserve officials have given mixed signals about future rate cuts, with some emphasizing the need to keep rates steady due to persistent inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also noted that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, especially with strong job growth and solid economic performance.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats, including a 25% duty on foreign cars and higher taxes on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals, have raised concerns about global trade tensions. This uncertainty is pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
Besides this, the weak US retail sales data and economic shifts in China are influencing market sentiment. On the data front, the latest report showed that US retail sales fell by 0.9% in January, a sharper decline than expected, signaling slowing consumer spending.
In China, President Xi Jinping held a meeting with top business leaders, including Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma, highlighting Beijing’s renewed focus on supporting private businesses for economic recovery.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is trading at $2,933.25, edging up +0.01% as investors assess the next directional move. The metal remains within a well-defined range, with $2,912.88 acting as a pivotal level.
Staying above this level keeps the bullish case intact, with buyers eyeing $2,939.98 as the next hurdle. A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for a move toward $2,962.85, with an extended push targeting $2,985.02.
On the downside, immediate support at $2,893.87 is crucial—if this level gives way, expect increased selling pressure toward $2,877.33, followed by $2,853.75 as a deeper floor.
The 50-EMA at $2,902.25 is catching up to price action, signaling that bulls are maintaining control. However, failure to sustain above the pivot at $2,912.88 could shift momentum in favor of the bears.
From a trade setup perspective, buyers may find an opportunity above $2,913, with a target of $2,939 while keeping a stop loss at $2,893 to manage downside risk.
Gold’s resilience hinges on how it interacts with resistance zones, as a sustained break above could invite fresh buying interest. Conversely, slipping below $2,893.87 may accelerate bearish momentum, pressuring prices lower.
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