EUR/USD Price Analysis – Jan 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to halt its downward trend, gaining modest traction at 1.0303 and reaching an intra-day high of 1.0310.
The pair's recent decline can be attributed to investor focus on the upcoming inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on Monday.
Moreover, the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure due to a weak economic outlook, compounded by persistent dovish expectations surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB).
Traders are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at each of its next four policy meetings, fueled by concerns over the Eurozone's economic growth and the subdued price pressures in the region.
EUR/USD Faces Downward Pressure Amid ECB Rate Cut Expectations and US Tariff Concerns
On the EUR front, the shared currency remains under pressure as the outlook for the Euro (EUR) stays weak. This is largely due to growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue with interest rate cuts.
Traders are predicting a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at each of its next four meetings, driven by concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook and subdued price pressures.
On the other hand, the ECB is also showing a readiness for further rate cuts. The minutes from the December ECB meeting, released last Thursday, revealed that officials discussed easing policies more than pausing them.
There was even talk of a larger 50 basis point rate cut to address downside risks to growth, caused by both global and domestic political uncertainties. Ultimately, the ECB opted for a 25 basis point cut, signaling ongoing concerns about economic growth.
Therefore, the growing expectations of continued ECB rate cuts and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook, combined with potential US tariff hikes, put significant downward pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair, increasing the likelihood of further declines or even reaching parity.
US Dollar Remains Firm Amid Anticipation of Trump’s Economic Policies and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is moving within Thursday’s trading range as investors keep a close eye on US President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration on Monday.
The market is awaiting Trump’s economic policy announcements, which are expected to offer fresh insight into the US economic outlook and potential changes to global trade dynamics.
Many experts believe that Trump’s policies could lead to higher inflation and economic growth but also risk triggering a global trade war.
At a Senate Finance Committee meeting on Wednesday, Trump’s treasury pick, Scott Bessent, stressed the need to reform the current tax system to avoid a massive $4 trillion burden on the middle class.
He warned of an "economic calamity" if the tax system is not renewed and extended. Bessent also voiced support for Trump’s protectionist policies, arguing that they would help address unfair trade practices and give the US greater leverage in global negotiations.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, has shown a slight increase, holding key support at 109.00.
The US dollar remains firm, despite traders beginning to price in the possibility of at least one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year.
This shift comes after the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, slowed to 3.2% in December, its lowest rate in over four years, fueling expectations of a more dovish Fed stance.
Therefore, the US dollar's strength, driven by expectations of Trump’s policies and a firm US Dollar Index, puts downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair, potentially leading to further declines as traders anticipate Fed rate cuts.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.02866, down 0.09%, as it struggles to recover above the pivot point at $1.03196. The pair remains under pressure amid subdued market sentiment and a stronger U.S. Dollar, signaling potential downside risks.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.03720, with additional barriers at $1.04338 and $1.05131. On the downside, key support is seen at $1.02406, followed by deeper levels at $1.01867 and $1.01288.
The 50-day EMA at $1.02938 aligns closely with the current price action, providing a short-term barrier to any bullish attempts.
The inability to sustain above the pivot point suggests cautious sentiment, while a break below the immediate support at $1.02406 could intensify selling pressure, targeting lower levels.
From a technical perspective, a sustained move above $1.03196 is required to signal a potential bullish reversal, with an upside target of $1.03720.
Conversely, failure to hold above the pivot may lead to a retest of $1.02406, with further declines toward $1.01867 likely if bearish momentum persists.
Market participants should closely monitor the $1.03196 pivot point, as it serves as a crucial decision level for directional movement. While the broader trend remains bearish, a break above resistance could provide relief for the euro.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Bias: EUR/USD faces resistance at $1.03187, aligning with the descending trendline.
- Support Levels: Key supports are $1.02392 and $1.01867, critical for gauging further declines.
- Risk-Reward Profile: Favorable sell setup with a 1:1.6 ratio, targeting $795 per standard lot profit.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.03006, up 0.07%, as the pair consolidates below the critical pivot point at $1.03187. This level marks a key threshold for market direction.
The 50-day EMA at $1.03032 reinforces near-term resistance, aligning with a descending trendline. Immediate resistance stands at $1.03187, with further levels at $1.03683 and $1.04338. A failure to breach these levels could invite selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.02392, followed by $1.01867 and $1.01288. A break below $1.02392 could open the door for further declines toward the $1.01867 level, intensifying bearish momentum.
The pair is currently trading within a downtrend, with lower highs and lows indicating continued bearish sentiment. The risk-to-reward setup favors selling at $1.03187, targeting $1.02392, with a stop loss at $1.03683.
This scenario presents a potential profit of $795 per standard lot against a risk of $496. The alignment of technical resistance levels with a bearish trendline further validates the downside bias.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Above 1.03187
Take Profit – 1.02392
Stop Loss – 1.03683
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$795/ -$496
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$79/ -$49
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Jan 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the upbeat Eurozone Industrial Production data, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to maintain its bullish momentum and shifted bearish around the 1.0311 level, hitting an intra-day low of 1.0287.
The downward shift could be attributed to cautious market sentiment ahead of the release of key US economic data.
Investors are eagerly awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, due at 13:30 GMT, which will likely have a significant impact on market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Apart from this, the Euro faced pressure as investors adopted a wait-and-see approach before the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House.
Market participants are concerned that higher import tariffs under his administration may hurt Eurozone exports, making them more expensive for US buyers.
This uncertainty over trade policies contributed to the Euro’s weakness against the Dollar on Wednesday. As a result, the EUR/USD pair is consolidating near the 1.0300 level, reflecting the cautious mood among investors as they monitor developments on both sides of the Atlantic.
EUR/USD Struggles to Gain Momentum Amid Economic Concerns and US Trade Uncertainty
On the EUR front, the Euro remains weak against its major peers on Wednesday. Investors are cautious as they await the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House.
Meanwhile, the concerns are rising that his administration may introduce higher import tariffs, which could negatively affect Eurozone exports, making them more expensive for US importers. This uncertainty is putting pressure on the Euro, causing it to underperform.
In addition, worries about Eurozone economic growth and the potential for further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) are contributing to the Euro’s weakness.
The ECB has already cut its Deposit Facility rate by 100 basis points in 2024, and further rate cuts are expected.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane mentioned that inflation in the services sector is likely to decrease in the coming months, which could bring inflation closer to the ECB's 2% target.
However, some ECB policymakers, like Austrian Central Bank Governor Robert Holzmann, believe that the path to lower rates may not be as straightforward as it seems.
Holzmann pointed out that core inflation is still relatively high, and energy-related issues could complicate the ECB's decisions.
On the economic data front, Eurozone industrial output showed steady performance in November, with a slight 0.2% month-on-month increase.
This was slightly below the expected 0.3% rise, but it was consistent with the previous month’s performance.
However, the annual rate of industrial production dropped by 1.9% in November, which was a larger decline compared to October's 1.1% fall, in line with market expectations.
The combination of cautious investor sentiment, concerns over higher US import tariffs, and expectations of further ECB rate cuts is weighing on the Euro, leading to a weaker EUR. This is limiting EUR/USD's upside potential, keeping it near the 1.0300 level.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.03006, up 0.07%, as the pair consolidates below the critical pivot point at $1.03187. This level marks a key threshold for market direction.
The 50-day EMA at $1.03032 reinforces near-term resistance, aligning with a descending trendline. Immediate resistance stands at $1.03187, with further levels at $1.03683 and $1.04338. A failure to breach these levels could invite selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.02392, followed by $1.01867 and $1.01288. A break below $1.02392 could open the door for further declines toward the $1.01867 level, intensifying bearish momentum.
The pair is currently trading within a downtrend, with lower highs and lows indicating continued bearish sentiment. The risk-to-reward setup favors selling at $1.03187, targeting $1.02392, with a stop loss at $1.03683.
This scenario presents a potential profit of $795 per standard lot against a risk of $496. The alignment of technical resistance levels with a bearish trendline further validates the downside bias.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Jan 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair has been under significant pressure, sliding to a fresh two-year low near 1.0200 as the week begins.
This sharp decline is largely attributed to the strengthening of the US Dollar (USD), which has been performing well amidst soaring bond yields.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against six major currencies, has surged to nearly 110.00, marking the highest level seen in over two years.
Moreover, the Euro (EUR) is facing strong selling pressure due to a combination of factors, including a generally bleak market sentiment.
Investors are growing increasingly risk-averse as fears mount over the potential economic fallout from protectionist policies under US President-elect Donald Trump.
There are rising concerns that these policies could lead to a global trade war, which would undermine the stability of international markets and diminish the appeal of risk-sensitive assets like the Euro.
This growing uncertainty has left the EUR/USD pair vulnerable, with investors turning to the US Dollar as a safe-haven amidst the prevailing global economic jitters.
EUR/USD Faces Pressure Amid Global Trade Concerns and ECB's Dovish Stance
On the EUR front, the Euro (EUR) is facing significant selling pressure due to weak market sentiment. Investors are becoming more cautious as fears grow that US President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist policies could lead to a global trade war.
During his campaign, Trump threatened that the European Union (EU) would face heavy penalties for not buying enough American exports, raising concerns about economic tensions between the US and Europe.
At home, the Euro is also under pressure from expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to ease its monetary policy.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane recently suggested that more interest rate cuts are likely as the central bank seeks to prevent the economy from slowing down too much.
He mentioned that the ECB’s approach should be balanced, avoiding being too aggressive or too cautious in its decisions this year.
In addition to this, ECB policymaker Boris Vujčić commented that he is comfortable with market expectations for more interest rate cuts, but he pushed back against ideas of speeding up the current pace of easing.
Vujčić emphasized the need for gradual cuts in interest rates, given the uncertainty surrounding the global economy. This ongoing policy stance has kept the Euro weak, as investors remain wary of the ECB's actions.
Therefore, the combination of global trade war concerns, ECB's policy easing expectations, and cautious sentiment towards the Euro has led to continued weakness in EUR/USD, causing the currency pair to experience selling pressure and a downward trend.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.02137, down 0.26% on the day, reflecting bearish momentum as the dollar strengthens. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point at $1.02487 serves as a crucial threshold for the pair’s short-term direction.
A sustained break below this level could push prices toward immediate support at $1.01664, with further downside targets at $1.01118 and $1.00691.
Resistance levels remain intact at $1.03198, $1.03632, and $1.04534. Notably, the 50-day EMA at $1.03232 highlights a bearish bias, with prices trading consistently below this average.
The RSI confirms downward momentum, although it is nearing oversold territory, which could signal a potential short-term consolidation.
The recommended strategy is to enter short positions below $1.02478, targeting $1.01656 while managing risk with a stop-loss at $1.02947.
A decisive break below $1.01664 could trigger an accelerated bearish move, while a rebound above the pivot point might shift sentiment toward the resistance zones.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Level: Bearish bias persists below $1.02487; upside limited by resistance at $1.03198.
- Key Support: Immediate support at $1.01664; further levels at $1.01118 and $1.00691.
- Indicators: RSI suggests limited momentum; 50 EMA at $1.03232 confirms downward trend.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.02137, down 0.26% on the day, reflecting bearish momentum as the dollar strengthens. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point at $1.02487 serves as a crucial threshold for the pair’s short-term direction.
A sustained break below this level could push prices toward immediate support at $1.01664, with further downside targets at $1.01118 and $1.00691.
Resistance levels remain intact at $1.03198, $1.03632, and $1.04534. Notably, the 50-day EMA at $1.03232 highlights a bearish bias, with prices trading consistently below this average.
The RSI confirms downward momentum, although it is nearing oversold territory, which could signal a potential short-term consolidation.
The recommended strategy is to enter short positions below $1.02478, targeting $1.01656 while managing risk with a stop-loss at $1.02947.
A decisive break below $1.01664 could trigger an accelerated bearish move, while a rebound above the pivot point might shift sentiment toward the resistance zones.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.02478
Take Profit – 1.01656
Stop Loss – 1.02947
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$822/ -$469
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$82/ -$46
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Level Break: A sustained drop below $1.03423 could accelerate bearish momentum, targeting support at $1.02240.
- EMA Pressure: The 50 EMA at $1.03471 highlights bearish dominance as prices remain below this level.
- Resistance Outlook: Bulls need to clear $1.03423 to challenge resistance at $1.04424 and $1.05222.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.02969, reflecting mild bearish sentiment as it dips below the pivot point at $1.03423.
The pair faces immediate resistance at $1.04424, with further upside barriers at $1.05222 and $1.06035.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.02240, followed by deeper levels at $1.01664 and $1.01118.
The 50 EMA at $1.03471 signals bearish momentum as prices hover below this critical moving average. RSI readings remain neutral, indicating limited directional bias for now.
However, a sustained break below $1.03423 could accelerate bearish momentum, driving the pair toward key support levels. Conversely, a recovery above $1.03423 may trigger a bullish reversal, targeting $1.04424.
Market participants are closely monitoring broader economic cues, including U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data and ECB commentary, which could impact the euro's trajectory.
A decisive move below the $1.03423 pivot point will likely validate bearish sentiment, paving the way for further declines.
On the flip side, a break above $1.03423 could signal a near-term recovery toward $1.04424 and higher levels.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.03424
Take Profit – 1.02469
Stop Loss – 1.03893
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$955/ -$469
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$95/ -$46
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Jan 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair edged lower on the day as the market sentiment remained cautious.
The pair traded with a mild negative bias around 1.0300 on Friday. This decline comes as the US dollar continues to gain strength, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off on any interest rate cuts for the time being.
The Fed’s stance on rates has provided support to the Greenback, creating some selling pressure on the euro.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Eurozone's Retail Sales figures, released on Thursday, failed to offer much support for the euro.
Eurostat reported a 1.2% year-on-year increase in retail sales for November, although it was lower than the revised 2.1% rise seen in October.
With the focus shifting to US employment data, the euro seems to be under pressure as market participants weigh the potential outcomes.
Fed’s Cautious Stance on Rate Cuts Strengthens US Dollar, Weighing on EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been rising as the Federal Reserve’s decision to delay interest rate cuts continues to support the Greenback.
This is putting some pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Traders are waiting for the US December Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected later on Friday.
This report could offer important insights into the US job market and influence future Fed decisions.
Several Fed officials have shown caution about cutting interest rates, mainly due to ongoing inflation concerns and uncertainty surrounding the incoming Donald Trump administration.
For example, Susan Collins, President of the Fed Bank of Boston, said that the uncertainty in the economic outlook suggests the Fed should be careful with rate cuts.
Moreover, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that she believes the Fed should keep rates steady until there is clear evidence that inflation is decreasing.
These hawkish comments from Fed officials could help strengthen the US dollar against the euro in the short term.
Therefore, the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts and inflation concerns are strengthening the US dollar.
This puts downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair, as a stronger dollar makes the euro less attractive in comparison, leading to a potential decline.
Euro Faces Pressure as Retail Sales Slow, but HICP Data Offers Some Support
On the EUR front, the Eurozone’s Retail Sales figures failed to provide much support for the euro. Data released by Eurostat on Thursday showed that retail sales increased by 1.2% year-on-year in November, but this was a slowdown compared to the revised 2.1% rise in October.
This weaker retail sales growth did not help lift the euro ahead of the key US employment data expected later on Friday.
However, there is some positive news for the euro. The Eurozone's preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for December has pushed back expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will make a large interest rate cut.
This could help limit the euro's losses for now, as traders may feel more confident about the ECB's stance, which provides some support for the shared currency in the short term.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.02969, reflecting mild bearish sentiment as it dips below the pivot point at $1.03423.
The pair faces immediate resistance at $1.04424, with further upside barriers at $1.05222 and $1.06035.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.02240, followed by deeper levels at $1.01664 and $1.01118.
The 50 EMA at $1.03471 signals bearish momentum as prices hover below this critical moving average. RSI readings remain neutral, indicating limited directional bias for now.
However, a sustained break below $1.03423 could accelerate bearish momentum, driving the pair toward key support levels. Conversely, a recovery above $1.03423 may trigger a bullish reversal, targeting $1.04424.
Market participants are closely monitoring broader economic cues, including U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data and ECB commentary, which could impact the euro's trajectory.
A decisive move below the $1.03423 pivot point will likely validate bearish sentiment, paving the way for further declines.
On the flip side, a break above $1.03423 could signal a near-term recovery toward $1.04424 and higher levels.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate resistance at $1.04424; next levels: $1.05287 and $1.06035.
- Support levels include $1.02884, $1.02240, and $1.01664.
- RSI at 48 and 50 EMA at $1.03718 signal neutral momentum, with potential for breakout moves.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.3539, up 0.14% for the day, maintaining a steady trajectory around its pivot point of $1.03731.
The 4-hour chart highlights immediate resistance at $1.04424, with subsequent levels at $1.05287 and $1.06035, reflecting potential targets if the pair gains momentum.
Immediate support lies at $1.02884, with additional key levels at $1.02240 and $1.01664, which serve as critical zones for bearish activity.
The RSI at 48 indicates neutral momentum, reflecting a balanced market sentiment. The 50 EMA, currently at $1.03718, aligns closely with the pivot point, signaling its importance as a dynamic support-resistance zone.
A break below $1.03725 could trigger selling pressure, targeting support at $1.02850. On the other hand, a sustained move above $1.04424 may pave the way for bullish moves toward higher resistance levels.
Traders are advised to consider short positions below $1.03725, with a take-profit target at $1.02850 and a stop-loss at $1.04208.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.03725
Take Profit – 1.02850
Stop Loss – 1.04208
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$875/ -$483
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$87/ -$48
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Jan 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair sustained its upward trend, climbing toward 1.0350. However, the gains may be limited as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates in 2025.
The market is currently adjusting its expectations for a slower pace of rate cuts by the Fed, which could cap the euro's momentum against the US dollar. Traders are closely awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes later today, which could provide more clarity on the Fed's plans.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is facing its own set of challenges. Despite rising inflation, the market expects the ECB to remain aggressive with rate cuts in 2025.
The anticipation is that the ECB will cut rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting on January 30, and traders are predicting a total of just over 100 basis points of cuts for the year.
This prospect of ECB rate cuts could put some pressure on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD), limiting the potential for significant movement in the EUR/USD pair in the short term. The balance between these central bank policies will likely be a key factor influencing the currency pair's future performance.
Euro Faces Pressure from ECB Rate Cut Expectations and Weak German Data
On the EUR front, markets are still expecting aggressive rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2025, even though inflation continues to rise. This could create selling pressure on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD).
The ECB is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in their next meeting on January 30. For the rest of the year, traders expect a total of over 100 bps in rate cuts, which could weaken the Euro further and limit its potential for gains against the USD.
Moving ahead, traders will be looking closely at key economic data from Germany and the Eurozone. German Retail Sales, along with Eurozone Consumer Confidence and the Producer Price Index (PPI), will be in focus.
If these reports come in stronger than expected, it could provide some support for the Euro. Positive results could lift the shared currency and potentially boost the EUR/USD pair.
However, the outlook isn't all positive for the Euro. Recent data from Germany showed a sharp decline in Factory Orders for November, with contracts for goods “Made in Germany” falling by 5.4%, following a 1.5% drop in October.
This unexpected slump suggests that Germany’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle, which is concerning for the Eurozone's economic recovery.
The weaker-than-expected data could add pressure on the Euro, making it harder for the EUR/USD pair to sustain its upward movement.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.3539, up 0.14% for the day, maintaining a steady trajectory around its pivot point of $1.03731.
The 4-hour chart highlights immediate resistance at $1.04424, with subsequent levels at $1.05287 and $1.06035, reflecting potential targets if the pair gains momentum.
Immediate support lies at $1.02884, with additional key levels at $1.02240 and $1.01664, which serve as critical zones for bearish activity.
The RSI at 48 indicates neutral momentum, reflecting a balanced market sentiment. The 50 EMA, currently at $1.03718, aligns closely with the pivot point, signaling its importance as a dynamic support-resistance zone.
A break below $1.03725 could trigger selling pressure, targeting support at $1.02850. On the other hand, a sustained move above $1.04424 may pave the way for bullish moves toward higher resistance levels.
Traders are advised to consider short positions below $1.03725, with a take-profit target at $1.02850 and a stop-loss at $1.04208.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Jan 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair edged higher, staying bullish around 1.0347, despite facing some negative factors. The pair gains could be limited as many analysts predict that it could drop further.
This expectation is mainly due to the different paths the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are taking with their monetary policies. The Fed is likely to stay on its tightening course, while the ECB might face challenges in keeping up.
Moreover, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index showed a decline, which adds to the negative sentiment surrounding the Euro.
The economic outlook for Germany, a key player in the Eurozone, is also getting worse, which could further drag down the Euro. This situation could lead to more bearish pressure on EUR/USD in the coming days.
Traders will be watching closely for economic data later today, including the HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Eurozone and the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Germany.
These reports could provide more clues about the future direction of the Euro and whether the expected bearish trend for EUR/USD will continue.
ECB's Easing Stance and Eurozone Economic Weakness Weigh on EUR/USD
On the EUR front, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are leaning towards continuing their current approach of easing monetary policy.
The markets have already priced in a 113 basis point (bps) cut in ECB interest rates this year, which means at least four rate cuts of 25 bps each.
This outlook is due to rising concerns that inflation in the Eurozone is still far from the ECB's target of 2%.
In an interview on Thursday, ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras from the Bank of Greece suggested that the ECB’s base interest rates should be reduced to around 2% by autumn.
This indicates that the ECB could lower its Deposit Facility rate at each of the next four meetings, reflecting a cautious approach to tackle inflation and economic challenges.
On the data front, the latest data from the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index showed a slight decline in January, dropping to -17.7 from -17.5 in December.
Additionally, the Current Situation gauge, which reflects the overall economic mood, hit its lowest point since October 2022, falling to -29.5 from -28.5 in December.
Sentix warned that the economic situation in the Eurozone is worsening, with Germany’s recession weighing heavily on the region’s economic growth.
Therefore, the ECB's expected rate cuts and the weakening economic outlook in the Eurozone, particularly in Germany, could put downward pressure on the Euro. This may lead to a bearish sentiment for EUR/USD, potentially causing the pair to decline further.
US Dollar Strengthened by Fed's Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been supported by the Federal Reserve’s more cautious stance on rate cuts. After three consecutive rate reductions, the Fed is expected to pause its easing cycle during the January meeting.
The latest projections from the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections show that policymakers anticipate the Federal Funds Rate will reach 3.9% by the end of the year, with just two rate cuts expected in 2025.
Fed officials are signaling a more careful approach to further rate reductions. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that the policy rate should remain high until there is more confidence that inflation will return to the Fed’s 2% target. This indicates that the Fed is in no rush to lower rates quickly, as inflation remains a concern.
Moreover, other Fed officials, including Governor Adriana Kugler and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have emphasized the difficult balancing act the US central bank faces.
They are trying to reduce rates without triggering runaway inflation, which could weigh on the economy. This cautious approach adds to the overall strength of the US dollar as markets expect slower and more gradual rate cuts in the near future.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.03107, marking a slight increase of 0.03% during the day as the pair consolidates near critical levels. The 4-hour chart indicates a cautious market sentiment, with the price testing immediate support at $1.02579.
This support is crucial to preventing further downside, as a break below this level could expose the pair to deeper retracements toward $1.02109 and $1.01664.
On the upside, the pair faces immediate resistance at $1.03929, followed by $1.04582 and $1.05136. A breakout above $1.03929 could spark bullish momentum, potentially targeting the higher resistance levels.
However, with the price currently below the 50-day EMA at $1.03769, bearish sentiment remains dominant in the near term.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 41, reflecting subdued momentum and hinting at potential oversold conditions.
Traders may focus on the pivot point at $1.03453, which acts as a key level for determining the next directional bias.A sustained move below this pivot could solidify the bearish trend, making short positions favorable.
For intraday trading, selling below $1.03461 with a target of $1.02586 appears prudent, while a stop-loss at $1.03944 safeguards against unexpected reversals.
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